Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

One thing fans are bad about that teams (mostly) aren't as guilty of is anchoring.  Whether it's the draft or prospects or free agency fans will lock in on one or two or five guys and then it's a bit of an end of the world situation when the team doesn't come down with one of them.  

Sometimes that's fair.  There is, barring someone wild being secretly on the trade market, simply no one that could have been acquired this year that comes close to the impact Ohtani and Soto will bring.  

But the player talent pool follows a bell curve.  And the further you get down the list the less daylight there is between options.  Once you pass or whiff on those top couple of options, guys just aren't that different.  They likely have very different ways of getting to their production, and probably offer differing levels of risk, but with maybe a few edge case exceptions, 3 WAR is 3 WAR is 3 WAR.

So you come to the Cubs.  This team, while certainly needing help, only absolutely needs a 1B and one SP.  It'd be nice to get a 3B, it'd be nice to add some LHH power, it'd be nice to add a fearsome late inning bullpen option or two.  But they only have two absolute needs, and the middle infield is the only place you absolutely cannot add talent.  So if Jed's plan is to add 10ish WAR this winter with ~$70M, he's got about 14 million ways to get there.

And none of that is to say you should feel shame for being miffed when like the Mariners sign Rhys Hoskins.  But do please keep in mind that right behind Rhys are Brandon Belt, Justin Turner, and Mitch Garver.  Please at least wait for them to also get scooped up before jumping out the window.

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know what your definition of 'personal attack' is and I certainly didn't imply that you should like, not log onto the board or whatever. But taking the lack of a panel at the Cubs convention and using that as a foundation for lowering your expectations, again, for the offseason, is....kinda the definition of unnecessarily freaking out to me?

And has that been the only example I used I would agree with you. However I gave way more examples to explain why I thought what I thought.  And I did so far less critical than some other posters. I also feel telling someone to take a horsefeathers breather is exactly suggesting they should stop posting. Maybe I overreacted. Or maybe you went to far. Either way, I am done with this. I will continue to post my thoughts and you can agree or disagree. Frankly I couldn’t care less. 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

But, one thing I think we all should agree about is what 17 seconds said. We all should be upset with them for choosing the plan of waiting out the off season for value signings. As a major market there is a time to actually target a guy and get him and build an off season based on that signing instead of waiting around for the rest of baseball to dictate your off season accomplishments. 

Being a major market team means you have a higher payroll than mid-market and small market teams.  That's it.  Jed's job is to maximize the # of wins under the payroll he's given by every means possible, which is the same job every FO has regardless of payroll.  Why not scratch and claw for every extra win like a good small or mid market team does?

If waiting the market out is necessary for Jed to create the best roster possible for 2024 under the budget he's been given then i support it.  My guess is Boras is the culprit, not Jed.

[Randall Simon]

30 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Being a major market team means you have a higher payroll than mid-market and small market teams.  That's it.  Jed's job is to maximize the # of wins under the payroll he's given by every means possible, which is the same job every FO has regardless of payroll.  Why not scratch and claw for every extra win like a good small or mid market team does?

If waiting the market out is necessary for Jed to create the best roster possible for 2024 under the budget he's been given then i support it.  My guess is Boras is the culprit, not Jed.

Or Ricketts. I feel like Old Tom got gun shy after JHey

[pitchcs]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

And has that been the only example I used I would agree with you. However I gave way more examples to explain why I thought what I thought.  And I did so far less critical than some other posters. I also feel telling someone to take a horsefeathers breather is exactly suggesting they should stop posting. Maybe I overreacted. Or maybe you went to far. Either way, I am done with this. I will continue to post my thoughts and you can agree or disagree. Frankly I couldn’t care less. 

[Layoutman]

I will admit I drank the Cub off season Kool aid Jed and the media served up. I know better than that as I've been there and done that before, a lot, like many of us. We all heard Cubs will spend...finalist for Ohtani....in on Soto...Cubs will be active at GM meetings. My hopes and expectations were through the roof and yes, they were unrealistic. It was fun to ride the rollercoaster of Ohtani and Soto with you NSBB.  Want to wish you all happy holidays!  

[BigbadB]

7 hours ago, Randall Simon said:

Or Ricketts. I feel like Old Tom got gun shy after JHey

Yeah, that World Series Championship sure sucked for PTR. 

[Jfoley89]

14 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is just divorced from reality, there's no coherent argument to be made that they've been 'shopping for scraps no one else wanted'.  It's taking your frustration about the team and retrofitting a narrative for why that is, even if it doesn't fit(and it does not).

Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer.  We did pay more for Taillon than Senga for half the production.  The bullpen lost 36 leads last year with nearly zero investment.  What exactly do you think that Jed has done well with this team? 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Jfoley89

[champaignchris]

57 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer.  We did pay more for Taillon than Senga for half the production.  The bullpen lost 36 leads last year with nearly zero investment.  What exactly do you think that Jed has done well with this team? 

 

 

Boxberger and Fulmer at about $7 million between the two wasn’t “nearly zero investment.”  They were bad/hurt, and performed significantly below their career numbers, but the investment was there and had they posted their expected 60-65 innings of 3-3,50 ERA baseball, the bullpen would have been a different story. 

For whatever reason the Cubs weren’t able to repeat the recent success they’d had with Givens, Robertson, Chafin, etc. 

[CubinNY]

22 minutes ago, champaignchris said:

Boxberger and Fulmer at about $7 million between the two wasn’t “nearly zero investment.”  They were bad/hurt, and performed significantly below their career numbers, but the investment was there and had they posted their expected 60-65 innings of 3-3,50 ERA baseball, the bullpen would have been a different story. 

For whatever reason the Cubs weren’t able to repeat the recent success they’d had with Givens, Robertson, Chafin, etc. 

the reason is that they are using a risky approach. But bullpens are a somewhat risky part of the team. 

if we can praise them when it pays off we can admonish them when it doesn’t. 
 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

38 minutes ago, champaignchris said:

Boxberger and Fulmer at about $7 million between the two wasn’t “nearly zero investment.”  They were bad/hurt, and performed significantly below their career numbers, but the investment was there and had they posted their expected 60-65 innings of 3-3,50 ERA baseball, the bullpen would have been a different story. 

For whatever reason the Cubs weren’t able to repeat the recent success they’d had with Givens, Robertson, Chafin, etc. 

$7m between two guys combined is not an investment. That’s peanuts in this game. 

[SOFNR]

 

Yah the Cubs filled a bunch of their needs with bargain bin shopping last year. Those players provided very little value. It was pretty easy to see coming. It's nice when Jed can correctly anticipate the market and add a good player on a value contract. Hes done it well a few times. But it's really hard to find consistent success shopping out of the dumpster. I sure hope he's aiming higher this year.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by SOFNR

[SOFNR]

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Edited December 19, 2023 by SOFNR

[Bertz]

https://theathletic.com/5146658/2023/12/19/sf-giants-shota-imanaga-free-agent

Nice writeup on Imanaga from Grant Brisbee.  Since the shopping lists for the Cubs and Giants overlap so much most of his free agent profiles this winter are actually pretty relevant for us

[JBears79]

Have we heard anything on the Cubs interest in Jordan Montgomery or even what his market is right now lately? I'm pretty interested in the Cubs adding him.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Have we heard anything on the Cubs interest in Jordan Montgomery or even what his market is right now lately? I'm pretty interested in the Cubs adding him.

Jeff Passan connected the Cubs to him a few weeks ago, but I don't think any of the local guys have corroborated that.  A reunion with the Rangers has also been mentioned a bunch.

I think Montgomery and Imanaga are tied very closely to Yamamoto.  The Mets and maybe the Dodgers are only going to go big for a FA SP with Yamamoto, but the rest of his market teams plus a few others like the Cubs and Rangers seem likely to start moving onto the guys in the next tier as soon as that bidding has resolved.  

That does mean we're probably rooting for the Yankeees, Giants, or Red Sox to pull down Yamamoto.  The Mets winning him reduces the supply of pitchers without reducing the demand for what's remaining.

[JBears79]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Jeff Passan connected the Cubs to him a few weeks ago, but I don't think any of the local guys have corroborated that.  A reunion with the Rangers has also been mentioned a bunch.

I think Montgomery and Imanaga are tied very closely to Yamamoto.  The Mets and maybe the Dodgers are only going to go big for a FA SP with Yamamoto, but the rest of his market teams plus a few others like the Cubs and Rangers seem likely to start moving onto the guys in the next tier as soon as that bidding has resolved.  

That does mean we're probably rooting for the Yankeees, Giants, or Red Sox to pull down Yamamoto.  The Mets winning him reduces the supply of pitchers without reducing the demand for what's remaining.

Gotcha. Reuniting with the Rangers makes sense. I think hes a good fit with the Cubs too since we wont be getting Yamamoto. I prefer Montgomery to Imanaga but both would be good adds.

[Tryptamine]

Perhaps I've missed it, but one guy I've heard linked to absolutely no one so far has been Blake Snell, which is surprising given he was arguably the 2nd best FA pitcher on the market who can actually pitch in 2024. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Tryptamine

[We Got The Whole 9]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Perhaps I've missed it, but one guy I've heard linked to absolutely no one so far has been Blake Snell, which is surprising given he was arguably the 2nd best FA pitcher on the market who can actually pitch in 2024. 

He probably wants 200M and teams are like dude you are 31 and just gave out 102 free passes. Probably a little close to Bellinger with the limited interest based on reasonable skepticism.

 

But everyone is waiting on Yamamoto. That guy is holding up all of it now. This domino effect FA is pretty annoying. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[JBears79]

10 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Perhaps I've missed it, but one guy I've heard linked to absolutely no one so far has been Blake Snell, which is surprising given he was arguably the 2nd best FA pitcher on the market who can actually pitch in 2024. 

Yeah he's a really weird case right now. A 2 time Cy Young winner who gave up a career high in walks last year. For some reason it feels like his performance could fall off a cliff at any second. I have no data to support that because looking at his peripherals, they dont look bad,

[LBiittner]

28 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Have we heard anything on the Cubs interest in Jordan Montgomery or even what his market is right now lately? I'm pretty interested in the Cubs adding him.

I'd just prefer sticking with Jordan Wicks as the second lefty in the rotation. By ignoring montgomery and imanaga tom could save $ to chase soto again next offseason. Bwahahaha. 

Besides,  wouldn't it be cool if Jordan Wicks started a game and $9million pickup Jordan Hicks finished it out?

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He probably wants 200M and teams are like dude you are 31 and just gave out 102 free passes. Probably a little close to Bellinger with the limited interest based on reasonable skepticism.

Wouldn't Snell be worth every bit of peanut brittle glasnow?

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Wouldn't Snell be worth every bit of peanut brittle glasnow?

Glasnow took half of that though. I believe Snell is looking for like 7/210. He just won a CY.

Edited December 19, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Glasnow took half of that though. I believe Snell is looking for like 7/210. He just won a CY.

I was looking per anum and didn't do the math 

Edited December 19, 2023 by LBiittner
.

[Bertz]

Snell is the pitching version of Matt Chapman.  Even though he's objectively very good, he gets to his production in a way that's not ideal so he's not really anyone's first choice.  I think he probably just hangs out until February and then gets one of the teams that got shouldered out of the other impact arms to give him what he wants.

If a team wanted the best most unwatchable rotation possible they'd grab both him and Dylan Cease this winter.