Cubs offseason chit chat...

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, ToolDRT said:

I just want us to spend aggressively on the right players. Ohtani, Yamamoto, Harper, Gerrit Cole types that are more sure things. I feel Bellinger has enough red flags in his history where I’m not comfortable handing him a mega deal. 
 

Sadly, my view is also skewed by the fact that I don’t trust this organization to spend every offseason. So signing Bellinger leaves me worried we’ll use that contract as an excuse to not attempt Soto next year, or player X the year after that. 

Ohtani and Yamamoto are not exactly sure things. Ohtani had had 2 TJs and Yamamoto is unproven. It’s not to say I don’t want to sign them but there is risk involved. 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, ToolDRT said:

Haha he sounds like a one of a kind type of forum member. Always sucks when you lose people like that. I thank you and David for the history lesson though and for keeping his memory a part of this place. 
 

And anytime you want to share more stories, I’d love to hear them! From any and all of you longtime posters. 

I don't really have much new to share just seconding how great Fred was.  He was an older man with a gigantic beard that loved to meet up with fellow NSBBers.  I'm sure for some it feels strange to meet strangers off the internet, especially in the period before social media when random message board people were completely anonymous as opposed to now where all of you are mostly all real fleshed-out people.  But Fred was the type of guy who made you feel comfortable around him the second you met him, and if you met him once he treated you like a good friend.  He would call me out of the blue at times offering me tickets to Cubs games for free.  The last time I talked to him I think he was asking me about some Linkedin connection I had with someone who worked at a company his grandson or nephew or someone was trying to work for.  I was with my wife at Pottery Barn and my little kids were running around and screaming in the store so the conversation was short, but I always wished I took a few extra minutes to talk to him that day.  Still upsets me to know he died a few months before the World Series win.  If anyone deserved to see the Cubs win the World Series it was him.

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, David said:

It's a tribute to a deceased longstanding and very active board member who passed shortly before they won the WS in 16.

I had no idea it was even a filter. I thought you guys were just typing that out the whole time haha. Thanks for sharing and sorry to hear about your friend. 

[s2obed]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

 

Sorry, I am a PSD alumni 🤷🏽‍♂️

[chibears55]

I hope I'm around in 10 years to see how the Dodgers wiggle out of having Ohtani 68 mil not go towards the Tax Threshold for the 10 yrs. he sitting at home collecting that money.

Also will be interesting to see if teams start to use that more with future FA

 

[Petrey10]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I hope I'm around in 10 years to see how the Dodgers wiggle out of having Ohtani 68 mil not go towards the Tax Threshold for the 10 yrs. he sitting at home collecting that money.

Also will be interesting to see if teams start to use that more with future FA

 

I mean from what I’m seeing I don’t think that’s going to happen at all anyway….. correct me if I’m wrong but he will cost 46mill against the cap the first 10 years. But only costing them 2mill in contract payments. Which honestly is probably about where we all thought he would end up. 
 

idk just thought I read that somewhere

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I hope I'm around in 10 years to see how the Dodgers wiggle out of having Ohtani 68 mil not go towards the Tax Threshold for the 10 yrs. he sitting at home collecting that money.

There is no wiggling necessary.  It won't go toward the tax at all.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I guess I was a bit more of a lurker in my earlier years on the forum and not quite as active as now, but unfortunately I never really had any meaningful interactions with Fred that I can recall.  I knew him as the game thread guy, but not much more than that.  I wish I had been able to get to know him as many of you did, but the thing I do know is he left quite a legacy on this site ( and beyond that I'm sure).

[Layoutman]

2 hours ago, David said:

i like the roided out dolandson idea much better than austin meadows, personally

Hey if the "Roids" worked for Ken Caminiti it can work for Josh Donaldson.

[Petrey10]

9 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I hope I'm around in 10 years to see how the Dodgers wiggle out of having Ohtani 68 mil not go towards the Tax Threshold for the 10 yrs. he sitting at home collecting that money.

Also will be interesting to see if teams start to use that more with future FA

 

The 68mill per year is irrelevant. The deferred money is prorated into the $46mill for the first 10 years and then the tax hit is over. Done . Gone. Freeman and Betts both have this in their contract too just not as much.

 

basically there’s a way to cheat the tax but the cubs are too cheap to do it.

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

The 68mill per year is irrelevant. The deferred money is prorated into the $46mill for the first 10 years and then the tax hit is over. Done . Gone. Freeman and Betts both have this in their contract too just not as much.

 

basically there’s a way to cheat the tax but the cubs are too cheap to do it.

Yeah, the CBA prescribed interest rate is 5%, which, to very oversimplify, is about what you could get if you took (a lot of) money down to your bank and asked for their best interest rate. $44m annually obviously qualifies as a lot of money. If the Dodgers went to BofA on 1/1/24 and deposited $44m into a savings account at 5% (and wrote Shohei a $2m check), by 2034 they'd have $68.2m sitting in that account. And then repeat that every year of the life of his contract.

Obviously they don't have to do that, they'll have plenty of other revenue streams to pull from in 10 years, and at that level of money you should be able to get a lot better than 5% return on your investment. So that's the beneficial part on their end (though the downside is interest rates plummet back to where they were a few years ago and they have to make at least somewhat risky investments). Ohtani is making like $50m-$100m off the field annually right now anyways, and gets to maybe get creative tax wise in ten years when those checks start rolling in.  I don't really see an issue with the contract, and think the way it's viewed for CBT purposes makes sense. As a dork, there's interesting financial/tax questions that probably still need to be sorted through. But it's fine. It's a 10 year/$460m deal. If the Cubs signed someone today to a 1 year, $100m deal but deferred the payment to 2075, they could put $10m into a bank account right now and come out $15m ahead by the time the bill came due. 

[ILMindState]

https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1734960769941336382?s=20

 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1734960769941336382?s=20

 

Yippie.

[Soul]

21 hours ago, Rob said:

Respectfully, Bellinger last year would have fit this description perfectly last year. Retread coming off some terrible years and looking for a one year pillow contract while he tries to rebuild some value.

Bargain bin shopping isn't all bad.

So we rehabbed Bellinger's game so another team can reap the benefits?  That's horrible.  Without any other top FA signings, if Bellinger leaves it's a disaster.

[CubbyBlue2008]

Bellinger, Cease, and Eloy would be fun.

[CubinNY]

53 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yippie.

Not sure if this is sarcastic. But I've come around to the idea of Bellinger in CF, I know TT says they don't need to trade PCA. Although that's true, I'd see what I could get in a young very good SP. Then I'd work like hell to see if I could pry away Alanso for a decent price. I would also try Morel and 3rd for as long as it takes to see if he can do it and if not, hope Shaw is still mashing in the minors. 

There is a lot of "hope is not a plan" in there, but... It's not the worst case. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not sure if this is sarcastic. But I've come around to the idea of Bellinger in CF, I know TT says they don't need to trade PCA. Although that's true, I'd see what I could get in a young very good SP. Then I'd work like hell to see if I could pry away Alanso for a decent price. I would also try Morel and 3rd for as long as it takes to see if he can do it and if not, hope Shaw is still mashing in the minors. 

There is a lot of "hope is not a plan" in there, but... It's not the worst case. 

I would rather sign Hoskins than trade a prospect for Alonso. Now, if you can get Alonso cheap, that is a different story. Trade PCA for a left handed bat and a young controlled starting pitcher. That bat can either play 3rd or DH and let Morel play 3rd. 

[Tryptamine]

I have a hard time believing a guy like Jed, who has clearly put a high value on defense, is going to let Morel play 3B.

[17 Seconds]

jed & tom seeing how deep into the offseason they can go without acquiring anyone

 

 

 

[squally1313]

Sign Bellinger, Morel plus whatever it takes to pry away Bregman, PCA and other prospects for pitchers (Miami, Seattle, Cease, etc). 

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not sure if this is sarcastic. But I've come around to the idea of Bellinger in CF, I know TT says they don't need to trade PCA. Although that's true, I'd see what I could get in a young very good SP. Then I'd work like hell to see if I could pry away Alanso for a decent price. I would also try Morel and 3rd for as long as it takes to see if he can do it and if not, hope Shaw is still mashing in the minors. 

There is a lot of "hope is not a plan" in there, but... It's not the worst case. 

Oh, Sarcasm. I'm not a fan of the Bellinger idea unless they trade PCA myself. And I'm pretty convinced they're not doing that. PCA is like, this team's dream player. Wins on the margins, safe floor, controllable, premium position. I can't see them moving him. Maybe they will, I'd be shocked, however.

Edited December 13, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, ILMindState said:

https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1734960769941336382?s=20

 

Gotta say, there's been no whiff of the Cubs being linked to Yamamoto.

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Gotta say, there's been no whiff of the Cubs being linked to Yamamoto.

Good. No wasted anticipation hete then

[Stratos]

The Cubs have a ton of prospects on the verge of the MLB.  Filling most every position with established players on contract, most with no-trade clauses, would be a weird if not ridiculous move.

At some point you have to take a risk and play the kids.  Some young players, like Morel, come up and hit right away and the pitchers adjust.  Others don't hit to their potential right away and need some time to adjust to the pitchers.  A lot of fans have already written off Mervis after 100 PAs.  He's the exact same player he was a year ago when most wanted him as the OD 1B.

We have a hole in CF.  Trading PCA doesn't make a lot of sense.   The # of positions where we have holes is dwindling and we have a loaded farm system with good prospects in the upper minors at literally every single position.  The position we need the least longterm is DH.  Sign all the short term guys we can and then reap the coming surplus.  Bellinger did his job for us.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Stratos

[LBiittner]

It was a sad commentary when the cubs called up Jared Young rather than a somewhat performing matt mervis