Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Dfan25]

I doubt we are going to see anything meaningful from the Cubs anytime soon. Seems to me that since Glasnow is the biggest salary they could  realistically add , nothing will happen until he goes somewhere .I don’t think Glasnow will get traded until Yamamoto signs . The waiting game continues . 

[Tryptamine]

51 minutes ago, Tim said:

Impact players? Bellinger and ?

I guess you could say Stroman, but then there are lot of "impact" pitchers available on the market. Stro only managed 2.7 fWAR as a starter last year and only pitched 136 innings. In 2022, he was worth 2.0 fWAR and only pitched 138 innings. 

Candelario was worth 0.2 fWAR with the Cubs. Not much impact there. 

Who else are we down?

Being down a near mvp candidate is enough by itself 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Impact players? Bellinger and ?

I guess you could say Stroman, but then there are lot of "impact" pitchers available on the market. Stro only managed 2.7 fWAR as a starter last year and only pitched 136 innings. In 2022, he was worth 2.0 fWAR and only pitched 138 innings. 

Candelario was worth 0.2 fWAR with the Cubs. Not much impact there. 

Who else are we down?

Bellinger and a TOR pitcher would be enough to likely run that division. 

Would like to see them also add a LH bat to platoon with Wisdom at DH.

A true closer and a 1Bmen 

 

I wouldn't mind Morel taking over 3B from the start of ST and see how it goes

[Rob]

33 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Being down a near mvp candidate is enough by itself 

Bellinger was less valuable last year than both Dansby and Nico.

[Stratos]

Fun fact:  the Cubs had the 11th best WAR in the MLB out of the 3B position last season.  This was shocking.  Madrigal had a 98 wRC+ while he played 3B.,  Candelario only had about 98 PA as a 3B for us.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Soul said:

Apparently Bellinger’s wife is in Toronto right now fueling speculation that he might be going there.

Sounds like he was in the city, probably for contract talks.  I doubt the Cubs resign him, the fit isn't great. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Sounds like he was in the city, probably for contract talks.  I doubt the Cubs resign him, the fit isn't great.

Cubs need a left handed hitter with some power. How is the fit not great? I mean he might not be worth the contract he will get, but his ability does fit the Cubs need. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Rcal10

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

I doubt we are going to see anything meaningful from the Cubs anytime soon. Seems to me that since Glasnow is the biggest salary they could  realistically add , nothing will happen until he goes somewhere .I don’t think Glasnow will get traded until Yamamoto signs . The waiting game continues . 

Oh man, another bottleneck.

[Stratos]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Cubs need a left handed hitter with some power. How is the fit not great? I mean he might not be worth the contract he will get, but his ability does fit the Cubs need. 

Putting one of our best athletes at 1B longterm seems like a bit of a waste, and they're not going to block PCA.  It's totally possible that Hoskins can put up as good offensive numbers at 1B next year as Bellinger will.  Note that I like Bellinger a lot as a player.  5 tool guy.

I also like the idea of Hoskins in order to give Mervis another shot.

[PeanutPunch33]

How’s this for a trade idea 

Christopher Morel for Triston McKenzie 

 

[muntjack]

The other impact player I was referring to was Stroman.  Yes,  he fell off dramatically, but he was a TOR pitcher for 1/2 of the season, and even with Bellinger and Stroman, the Cubs fell short.  Replacing them gets us back to that level, perhaps a touch better with internal developments.  

Do we expect Glasnow to give us 180+ innings? By how much do we expect him to outpace Stroman's '23?  

Resigning Bellinger and trading for Glasnow feels a lot like running it back to me.  Not hopeless, just a major market team comfortable with being 'competitive' again. 

If they make those moves, let's hope that's just the start.  

 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Putting one of our best athletes at 1B longterm seems like a bit of a waste, and they're not going to block PCA.  It's totally possible that Hoskins can put up as good offensive numbers at 1B next year as Bellinger will.  Note that I like Bellinger a lot as a player.  5 tool guy.

I also like the idea of Hoskins in order to give Mervis another shot.

If they did sign Bellinger he would have to play the outfield. I don’t feel PCA should stop something like that from happening. First, they can leave him down another year. Second, if Morel can play 3rd, PCA and Bellinger can co-exist. One of the outfielders can rotate in at DH. Finally, they can also trade PCA to fill other holes.
Rather than signing Hoskins, I would hope they could trade for Naylor. Gives them a few years at 1st. I really think the Cubs FO has given up on Mervis. 
All of the above said, if you want to say your have concerns about Bellinger having a repeat performance of last year or worry about his EV, hard hit rate, etc…. I get that. Or if you think he won’t be worth the money they have to pay him for a  long term investment, I get that too. I just don’t agree with them not getting him because he doesn’t fit. If they believe in him and they are ok with his price, he fits fine. 

[BigbadB]

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If they did sign Bellinger he would have to play the outfield. I don’t feel PCA should stop something like that from happening. First, they can leave him down another year. Second, if Morel can play 3rd, PCA and Bellinger can co-exist. One of the outfielders can rotate in at DH. Finally, they can also trade PCA to fill other holes.
Rather than signing Hoskins, I would hope they could trade for Naylor. Gives them a few years at 1st. I really think the Cubs FO has given up on Mervis. 
All of the above said, if you want to say your have concerns about Bellinger having a repeat performance of last year or worry about his EV, hard hit rate, etc…. I get that. Or if you think he won’t be worth the money they have to pay him for a  long term investment, I get that too. I just don’t agree with them not getting him because he doesn’t fit. If they believe in him and they are ok with his price, he fits fine. 

Yep. That's where I'm at. Bellinger can play multiple positions, so go get him. Morel at 3rd with Madrigal as a defensive replacement or spot starter at 3rd. Trade or sign someone to play first and get some pitchers with your farm. Should be plenty of offense to make a run. 

[gocubs218]

Bowden has us resigning Belli for 7/181. That’s probably the top end of what I could swallow but would still prefer not to give him a contract like that. 

[Backtobanks]

13 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Yep. That's where I'm at. Bellinger can play multiple positions, so go get him. Morel at 3rd with Madrigal as a defensive replacement or spot starter at 3rd. Trade or sign someone to play first and get some pitchers with your farm. Should be plenty of offense to make a run. 

Signing Bellinger makes so much sense (great CF, LH slugger, still reasonably young, etc.) that I don't understand all of the discussion.  Trading PCA opens up the possibilities of getting almost any young, TOR pitcher.  Sign Hoskins and the team is loaded with talent.

[BigbadB]

8 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Bowden has us resigning Belli for 7/181. That’s probably the top end of what I could swallow but would still prefer not to give him a contract like that. 

Why the reluctance to give a contract like that? I don't get it. You have one of the best farm systems in baseball to pull cheap replacement talent over the next 7 years. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Bowden has us resigning Belli for 7/181. That’s probably the top end of what I could swallow but would still prefer not to give him a contract like that. 

I would take him at that contract. I am not sure why people think he can’t play the outfield at 33-35. He should be fine. And I am not as worried about his EV and hard hit rate S some. I think a lot of it has to do with his 2 strike approach. 
Nimmo signed an 8 year deal last year when he played the entire year at 30. So he is signed until 38. And he is only a centerfielder. So, again, why not Bellinger until he is 36? 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Rcal10

[gocubs218]

4 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Why the reluctance to give a contract like that? I don't get it. You have one of the best farm systems in baseball to pull cheap replacement talent over the next 7 years. 

I am not sure if last year is real or not and unless we are trading PCA, I would rather not pay our 1B nearly 200 million. I would be fine with that contract but just think we could get better value elsewhere. 

[Jason Ross]

I'm probably out on Bellinger at 7/$180m. Good player, but a $25m AAV over the course of 7 years is assuming plenty of premium position time. Bellinger's quality of contact and 2-strike BABIP success last year is quite concerning moving forward and I don't have him projected as the 140 wRC+ he was; more like a 125 wRC+ hitter. At 1b, or LF, there's a larger importance placed on his bat. I'm never against forcing a good prospect to force their way in, but Pete Crow-Armstrong is a near lock to be on the MLB roster by mid-season barring a full collapse of the bat. His glove, his speed are both MLB ready-now and he's going to force that issue (especially on a team that loves up-the-middle defense). 

With the market Bellinger has, which should include but isn't limited to Toronto, San Francisco and Seattle, there's going to be a team who wants him at CF, not for half a season, or one year, but 3-5+ years. I'm not paying someone I'm moving to a far less premium position like he's a CF'er. If a market doesn't materialize, and he's looking for a Correa-type thing where you get him in for a 3 year contract, multi-opt-out high AAV thing? I'd be quite interested. But as long as you have other teams who are going to value him as a premium position player...pass. I think it'll come in a bit higher then that if someone sees him as a 4+ year solution to a premium position. Either in way of extra years of a bit higher AAV.

The Cubs have other options, and other routes.

Edited December 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I will again point out that Bellinger is not locked into 1B if PCA hits, Seiya has been average at best defensively in RF and players need rest/insurance from injury.

[BigbadB]

14 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

I am not sure if last year is real or not and unless we are trading PCA, I would rather not pay our 1B nearly 200 million. I would be fine with that contract but just think we could get better value elsewhere. 

Looked kinda real to me. If you think PCA in CF and Hoskins at 1b will have you sniffing playoffs, I'd have to respectfully disagree.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm well out on Bellinger at 7/$180m. Good player, but a $25m AAV over the course of 7 years is assuming plenty of premium position time. Bellinger's quality of contact and 2-strike BABIP success last year is quite concerning moving forward and I don't have him projected as the 140 wRC+ he was; more like a 125 wRC+ hitter. At 1b, or LF, there's a larger importance placed on his bat. I'm never against forcing a good prospect to force their way in, but Pete Crow-Armstrong is a near lock to be on the MLB roster by mid-season barring a full collapse of the bat. His glove, his speed are both MLB ready-now and he's going to force that issue (especially on a team that loves up-the-middle defense). 

With the market Bellinger has, which should include but isn't limited to Toronto, San Francisco and Seattle, there's going to be a team who wants him at CF, not for half a season, or one year, but 3-5+ years. I'm not paying someone I'm moving to a far less premium position like he's a CF'er. If a market doesn't materialize, and he's looking for a Correa-type thing where you get him in for a 3 year contract, multi-opt-out high AAV thing? I'd be quite interested. But as long as you have other teams who are going to value him as a premium position player...pass. 

The Cubs have other options, and other routes.

The rub is, is PCA more than Christian Pache? The Cubs could also sign Bellinger and want him in CF and just as easily trade PCA for pitching or whatever.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Cuzi said:

The rub is, is PCA more than Christian Pache? The Cubs could also sign Bellinger and want him in CF and just as easily trade PCA for pitching or whatever.

And that's fair. The issue is, I think this is more of a fan created situation than one that is likely to materialize. I'll not say I know what the Cubs are going to do, and certainly, there's a non-zero chance this happens. With that said, Pete Crow-Armstrong fits almost, to a T, what this organization has valued over the course of the last handful of seasons: he offers a safe, projectable floor, plays a premium position, plays elite (likely) defense and adds plenty of value on the bases. We also have the Cubs talking, multiple times this offseason, about the future, the prospects...

So I think it's fine to point out they could trade him. I find this scenario incredibly unlikely, however.

[Rob]

I'll be honest -- I simply don't trust Bellinger's production going forward. I don't want any part of a massive contract for him.

We've all seen this discussion before, but the underlying metrics are not pretty. His xwOBA was merely in the 53rd percentile last year. Overall rank of 121 out of 258. He was right behind Jake Fraley and Luke Raley. He looked like a league average hitter who got lucky.

Now, I understand some people think it's not luck -- that maybe it's at least partially attributable to his two-strike approach. But that's not really a testable hypothesis on a single season's timeframe. And even if you believe it's true -- how much of a difference can that make, truly? It's probably not enough to take a league average guy to near MVP caliber when healthy.

And it's not like we can look to his recent past to allay our concerns. His recent past showed him being abysmal with the bat.

Last year I was one of the chief defenders of signing him. There was enough in his profile that I thought he warranted a look on a cheap one year deal to see if he could pull it together. And he has -- at least partially. But this year I look at him and see the warts. I think he's going to be paid ~$80M or so more than he's worth. We're best off letting him walk and collecting the QO pick.

[Cuzi]

Bellinger's xBA was 74th percentile. He was not "lucky."

There are real questions about his power going forward, but its no question he did trade power for contact. He was never a better hitter at making contact in his entire career than he was last year. The other thing to point out with the power is that in his previous 2 seasons his max EV was 107. Last year his max EV was 109, 1 mph lower than his MVP season. So the power hasn't drained. It actually rebounded.