Two Starting Pitcher Targets To Help Cubs Avoid Wasting This Position Player Core

By most indicators, the Chicago Cubs have the best defense in MLB and the best offense besides that of the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is an impressive group with depth and flexibility, with nine players already reaching 1 WAR before the All-Star Break. Yet, I don’t think most Cubs fans would be overly confident in the team’s chances if the playoffs started today. Understandably so! The pitching staff does not inspire confidence. A position player group like the one on the North Side doesn’t come along every year. Knowing these windows can close faster than expected, the Cubs need to invest in the pitching staff while this window is open. With July here, let’s look at a couple of potential starting pitchers the Cubs might be able to add to their rotation.

The Cubs need help all over their pitching staff. As a group, they have the highest home run rate in the league backed up by one of the highest hard-hit rates. They also have below-average strike out and ground ball rates. Not good! It also does not appear internal help is coming. Jameson Taillon is expected to pitch in a rehab game on July 5 but he has been a large part of the problem; expecting him to be a solution here is a fool’s errand. Edward Cabrera is hopefully an August return, but he has also been underwhelming at best. Ben Brown may not be back this year, and who knows what he will look like if he does return; Brown himself said he will need to tweak his mechanics to avoid the injury recurring again.

That leaves Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson as the current Cubs playoff rotation. Again, not good! Injury problems that have plagued him throughout his career have resurfaced for Boyd this season, making him tougher to rely on. Colin Rea is a career back-of-the-rotation starter and swingman who has filled in admirably but is best in that role, where he can be hidden a bit from left-handed hitters. If Justin Steele makes it back, it will reportedly be out of the bullpen. This all leads to my belief that the Cubs truly need to add two legitimate starters this deadline, a very tall task that will require them to be more aggressive than they have been in previous years.

With the expanded playoff format, more teams feel they could still contend for a wild-card spot, meaning less teams are willing to sell. That can make it a tough market for true buyers, like the Cubs. The obvious trade candidates, and ones that have been discussed on this site, are guys like Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta, upcoming free agents on underperforming teams. There are also the two Angels pitchers, Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers, who have been written about.

I'd like to focus on two rental starting pitchers I would like to see the Cubs make a serious run at that should both be attainable, despite their brilliant production this year.

Casey Mize

While his teammates Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty get the majority of the rumors, the Tigers do have a third starter set to hit free agency this offseason. The former No. 1 overall pick is having his best season yet as he approaches free agency. The Cubs will likely have to spend this year in free agency for pitching. This problem isn’t going away; they don’t have multiple impact arms in the upper-minors ready to come back and make an impact. Cade Horton is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and Justin Steele is a question mark, so relying on them in the rotation next year is not prudent.

Trading for Mize now allows the Cubs a few months to court him and potentially extend him before he hits the open market. Mize has a 90th percentile, 5.5% walk rate that would play very nicely in front of this defense. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the park. He has sacrificed velocity on his fastball in favor of spin efficiency and it has worked well. His fastball has increased vertical movement and in doing so has increased the swing and miss rate by six percentage points while dropping the hard-hit rate by 22% points.

That uptick in vertical movement has also caused batters to be under the fastball 57% of the time, up from 45-46% the past couple of years. The Tigers will almost certainly give him a qualifying offer, which means the Cubs need to offer more than the value of a compensation draft pick for Mize. The Tigers' run differential shows they have been a bit unlucky this season after an ALDS run last year, likely meaning they don’t plan on a full rebuild and are focused on major-league ready players and prospects. Their offense has struggled this year, though; perhaps an offer around a package of James Triantos and Kevin Alcantara would entice them to part with Mize.       

Sonny Gray

The veteran right-hander continues to perform at a high level despite the Red Sox's struggles this year. Boston traded for him to bolster their rotation for an expected playoff run, but their dormant offense has made any playoff run unlikely, and subsequently made Gray available.

Gray pairs a 6.2% walk rate with a 47.5% ground-ball rate, both in the top 25% of major league pitchers. It isn’t hard to see how that would play well in front of the Cubs' defense. Gray will add a steadying presence to the rotation, as he has made at least 22 starts every year since 2014 and has allowed a FIP over 4.00 in just three of those 14 seasons (and only once outside of his Yankees seasons. Gray does come with a mutual option for next season, but he's a virtual lock to reach free agency.

The Red Sox seem to have pitching depth going forward with Garret Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and even Brayan Bello, but they are struggling with middle infield depth. A package centered around Pedro Ramirez, who doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner entrenched in the infield, might be able to get the job done.