Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Tim]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Each of those players was 2-3 years removed from being a 120+ bat. Hoskins is 1. But the injury and how well he bounces back obviously is a major concern. 

 

I think it's a pretty good gamble on Jed's part but I can see reason for doubt.

It would be perfectly fine as the, what, fifth most impactful move of the offseason.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

Imo too much for only 1 yr of Soto …. Now if Soto comes with an extension then I’d be ok with that. 
 

like imanaga

 

think everything else is very underwhelming. 
 

 

 

WE CAN GO OVER THE TAX IN 2024 for the right pieces. Lots of room in future cap for Soto and Ohtani. Or Soto and YY and Alonso

 

i don’t think we need to trade Morel. He should get shopped for a young arm or 3B. Otherwise keep him for utility

I would love to get Soto for Wesnicki. But I think you are not being realistic. He will cost more. Sure trade Wesnicki for Soto and then Assad for Alonso. Sure that would be better. And if they could do it I would be all for it. Then sign a pitcher and make a trade for a young arm. And, again, if you could do it without Morel I would be very happy. But I doubt that is realistic.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Rcal10

[Dfan25]

If the Mariners put Woo on the offer , I think the Cubs will have a difficult time matching that .  I think Woo has a higher ceiling than any of the Cubs pitchers with the exception of Horton .  Just my opinion . Brown has a high ceiling but I take Woo over him . Woo already in the big leagues .

[Rcal10]

12 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Each of those players was 2-3 years removed from being a 120+ bat. Hoskins is 1. But the injury and how well he bounces back obviously is a major concern. 

 

I think it's a pretty good gamble on Jed's part but I can see reason for doubt.

Hosmer was over that 120+ in 38 games in 2020. Aside from that he was strictly a 110+ guy at best. And often worse. Mancini didn’t play in 2020, and the was 103 and 106 the two years before the cubs signed him. He had 1 year of 134 in 2018. Those guys are not the same as Hoskins. Hoskins only gamble is he is coming back from an injury. He has always been a solid bat. Same cannot be said for Mancini and Hosmer. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Rcal10

[Tryptamine]

Granted it's just a chat from MLBTradeRumors so it doesn't carry a lot of weight, but if Morel doesn't carry enough value to even be the lead piece where Morel+ isn't going to get it done, then I'm out. 

 

 

Quote

 

Juan Soto

1:15

Will Christopher Morel be the Center piece for the Cubs to acquire Soto? Is there any chance of an extension for no matter who potentially acquires the generational talent of Juan Soto?

 

Steve Adams

1:16

I don't think Morel has sufficient value to be the centerpiece in a Soto trade.

 

 

Nor do I think Soto will sign an extension

 

 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Granted it's just a chat from MLBTradeRumors so it doesn't carry a lot of weight, but if Morel doesn't carry enough value to even be the lead piece where Morel+ isn't going to get it done, then I'm out. 

 

 

 

Most recent rumors have been centered on young, MLB-ready (or close) pitching for the Padres desires in a Soto trade, so that might be why he's saying that. If the Padres are looking for young arms, then Morel might not interest them as much as Levine thought.

With that said, there's a report today from Heyman that the Cubs are looking for multiple SP's. So that could be a situation and an indicator that someone like Wicks/Assad is in a Padres-Soto deal. So like Brown-Canario-Assad or something. Or Wicks+ something. 

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Most recent rumors have been centered on young, MLB-ready (or close) pitching for the Padres desires in a Soto trade, so that might be why he's saying that. If the Padres are looking for young arms, then Morel might not interest them as much as Levine thought.

With that said, there's a report today from Heyman that the Cubs are looking for multiple SP's. So that could be a situation and an indicator that someone like Wicks/Assad is in a Padres-Soto deal. So like Brown-Canario-Assad or something. Or Wicks+ something. 

Just curious… who, if anybody, would be untouchable for you in a Soto trade? PCA and Horton? Would Wicks? For me it’s PCA, Horton, & Wicks. I’m good with anybody else. I would put Ferris in the untouchable group also, though I doubt they are looking for somebody that’s 2-3+ years away anyways. 

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Just curious… who, if anybody, would be untouchable for you in a Soto trade? PCA and Horton? Would Wicks? For me it’s PCA, Horton, & Wicks. I’m good with anybody else. I would put Ferris in the untouchable group also, though I doubt they are looking for somebody that’s 2-3+ years away anyways. 

I'd trade Wicks. I like Wicks. Wicks has FIP-beater profile. He's also not so good you skip on a 25 year old 150 wRC+ hitter, even if it's for a year. His whiff rate is pretty unimpressive, and there's work to do. He can be as good as Jon Lester-lite IMO but as was suggested by @Bertz he could be as ho-hum as Kyle Freeland, too. Juan Soto is horsefeathers Juan Soto.

PCA and Horton are the two guys who could be in a Soto trade that I would say "no" to. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another forum I frequent curates NL Central answers to the MLBTR chats, and every time I read them I'm not sure why I give their opinions any credence.  

This is not a criticism of posting it btw, especially at this point in the offseason all fodder is good fodder.  But I'm also not sure if I trust the minds behind '12/264 for Cody Bellinger' by default when it comes to valuations.

[JD94]

34 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd trade Wicks. I like Wicks. Wicks has FIP-beater profile. He's also not so good you skip on a 25 year old 150 wRC+ hitter, even if it's for a year. His whiff rate is pretty unimpressive, and there's work to do. He can be as good as Jon Lester-lite IMO but as was suggested by @Bertz he could be as ho-hum as Kyle Freeland, too. Juan Soto is horsefeathers Juan Soto.

PCA and Horton are the two guys who could be in a Soto trade that I would say "no" to. 

I understand that. I wouldn’t like kick my dog or anything if Wicks was in a Soto trade, but I can also see him being a pretty reliable #3 or #4 starter for the next 6 years. I guess I’m just worried what the near future would look like without him in the rotation. I mean my though process on Wicks could change quickly if the Cubs go sign Yamamoto and trade for a young SP, I’m just not sure if that happens. I do feel like the Padres would be more interested in Brown anyways. He has more upside, and I’d be fine with that. Wicks just feels safer than Brown to me because I’ve seen Wicks have success in the majors. Brown is very “hit or miss” to this point in the minors. One day he looks elite, the next he’s getting knocked all over the park. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by JD94

[Jason Ross]

58 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I understand that. I wouldn’t like kick my dog or anything if Wicks was in a Soto trade, but I can also see him being a pretty reliable #3 or #4 starter for the next 6 years. I guess I’m just worried what the near future would look like without him in the rotation. I mean my though process on Wicks could change quickly if the Cubs go sign Yamamoto and trade for a young SP, I’m just not sure if that happens. I do feel like the Padres would be more interested in Brown anyways. He has more upside, and I’d be fine with that. Wicks just feels safer than Brown to me because I’ve seen Wicks have success in the majors. Brown is very “hit or miss” to this point in the minors. One day he looks elite, the next he’s getting knocked all over the park. 

My guess is if Morel isn't used to get Soto, he'd be used to replace Wicks via a trade. Let's put it this way: if the Cubs traded Wicks to the Padres for Soto, then Morel to the Mariners to get Woo...the Cubs come out ahead. 

They might be more interested in Brown. They could be more interested in Wicks. I think we want them to be more interested in Brown today because he impacts the Cubs less today, but a year from today we could sing another song. We'll have to see what Brown becomes. He has legit ace-stuff with spotty fastball command that could get ironed out or not. 

[Rex Buckingham]

I believe the reasoning is that since those 2 would be on 1 year deals, they may reach a little higher into the Tax because of how much will be coming off after the season, as opposed to Ohtani's longer-term deal.

[Bertz]

58 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Ngl the imagined Soto budget vs the Ohtani budget is my favorite early offseason storyline. They’re soooo different still!

Break it down for me. Why would Soto and Hoskins being short term commits open up more dollars for 2024 that wouldn’t be available with Ohtani? Even if we’re gung ho about Ohtani getting 50, its possible sure, that’s Soto and Hoskins right there. Where’s the rest come from and why disappear if Ohtani? 

 

TT is saying two things, neither very complicated:

- Soto is going to be cheaper on an annual basis than Ohtani.  That $10-15M difference can be used on additional players to help the roster

- In addition to the 2024 budget, Jed had to think about 2025, 2026, 2027, etc.  Soto and Hoskins being one year deals means you can add a 3rd guy on a multi-year deal and still have plenty of financial flexibility in future years.  In the Ohtani scenario you might lean on the third guy being shorter term

Take those two together and what we can infer about the budget, and you're looking at the FA SP addition being someone from the Imanaga tier with Soto or the Kyle Gibson tier with Ohtani. 

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m talking pure 2024 dollars. That same money’s coming off next year with Ohtani too.

Heck, having $100 million come off next year including Soto and Hoskins isn’t exactly a great position itself. Suddenly you’re Ohtani and Soto-less, lose the option for either or even both, and are left with lots of money to spend on…Alex Verdugo? JD Davis? Max Kepler? Conventional thinking has us focus at the opportunity cost of spending, pure coincidence, but there’s a massive one for half measures/tiptoeing this offseason 

Agreed. I do not feel the goal should be to go over the LT this year but then in 25’ lose Soto and Hoskins/Alonso salary to come back under. I understand the idea of going over and then losing the salary of whichever 1st baseman you get in 24. But they don’t have to lose Soto as well. And honestly my idea was either Soto or ohtani(if Soto they extend him) Hoskins/Alonso and then trade for Glasnow. And Glasnow being the guy they don’t sign in 25. If it is possible see if whoever they have a 1st they can resign. I don’t think they could be Alonso and Ohtani in 25. But they probably can if it is Soto. And they probably can if it is Hoskins with either Ohtani or Soto. 
if both Ohtani and Soto are too cost prohibitory with either of those first baseman that is where Belt comes in. Bottom line is I want either Ohtani or Soto beyond 24,. They can figure out how later.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

1 - He explicitly keeps an extension talks out. There's no comment on being cheaper on an annual basis than Ohtani in there, which absolutely makes sense when you consider this guy is a 26 YO legend hitting FA next year after making 30+ million in cap space for 2024

2 - Soto and Hoskins = Ohtani here in 2024, probably even cost most with the trade. There's no actual consideration for 2025+ beyond that more money is coming off next year to spend on ??

It's two completely different budgets for no particular reason and blind acceptance as truth is what props it up more than a cold, hard reality that cares not for our biases

I'm begging you to actually read things you respond to.  It would alleviate so much nonsense.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbh what would alleviate the nonsense is not having two clearly different budgets to forward a bias or agenda. What he's saying didn't add up, and it hasn't the entire time

I'm all for Juan Soto, but there's alot of early offseason fan-fic going on with his situation

There's no separate budgets, it's very simple arithmetic and a sprinkling of reading comprehension 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In 2024 alone, Soto is materially less expensive than Ohtani, that is the bulk of the motivation for saying that you have more room to make another more substantive addition.  

The other, minor reason another more substantive addition would be more likely is that Jed (like most GMs) is mindful of how many long term deals he gives out in a single offseason.  Offseasons that imply the Cubs are going to sign 3 or more deals of 4+ years are probably not going to stand up to reality.  In the above example where Soto replaces Ohtani the Cubs have done none, which means that inhibition will not exist.  It wouldn't be a huge problem if you swapped Ohtani back in for Soto since he's only one, that's why the bulk of the reason is the simple AAV difference between them.

So to summarize, 90% of the reason another substantial signing would be more likely would be having more 2024 money, 10% would be having even cleaner books in 2025 and beyond, and 0% would be about having different budgets or some other pre-conceived thought you had going into the thread.

[CubinNY]

Ohtani = 50M for X years

Soto +Hoskins + mystery picture = 50M for one year, $X for X years for mystery pitcher 

2024 = 50M, 2025 and beyond = less than that, all things being equal

-------------------

However, I'd be kind of pissed if Jed spent the capital to get Soto (because it is going to hurt regardless of one year or not) and didn't have a plan to resign him. That would not be ideal to say the least. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That's what I'm saying!

But *not* Soto (33) + Hoskins ($16.5), and *even still* not Hoskins + Imanaga + ++++++++ like keeps getting imagined while Ohtani only afford Ohtani

Also "cleaner books" in 2025 is very generous when you've now got to replace a bunch of starters (Soto, Hoskins, Hendricks, etc). Yeah, you've lopped off payroll but not in a way that actually moves things along for the  org beyond 2024

 

you're being intentionally obtuse.

Going over the tax threshold at a higher level for one year is not the same as doing it for many years. It's why they might spend more with short term deals 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

you're being intentionally obtuse.

Going over the tax threshold at a higher level for one year is not the same as doing it for many years. It's why they might spend more with short term deals 

Not to mention you replace those guys with Horton, Shaw, etc.

 

The Cubs are going whale fishing in FA over the next couple of years. They should mostly avoid patching their holes with mid-tier FA and let the kids play! 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That's what I'm saying! It's very obvious the Soto math gets wonky

But *not* Soto (33) + Hoskins ($16.5), and *even still* not Hoskins + Imanaga + ++++++++ like keeps getting imagined while Ohtani only afford Ohtani. That's even before considering that this huge gap doesn't even really get you so far in FA

Also "cleaner books" in 2025 is very generous when you've now got to replace a bunch of starters (Soto, Hoskins, Hendricks, etc). Yeah, you've lopped off payroll but not in a way that actually moves things along or even stabilizes the org beyond 2024

 

The post you initially responded to was comparing Ohtani + Hoskins + a pitcher acquired for Morel vs. Soto + Hoskins + a pitcher acquired for Morel.  Unless you think Ohtani will not have a materially higher salary than Soto, there's either a reading comprehension or arithmetic problem on your end.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Not to mention you replace those guys with Horton, Shaw, etc.

 

Just like how PCA, Canario, Mervis, Kilian, Wesneski, etc are all ready to step in to be key performers on opening day next year?

The Chicago Cubs should not be avoiding long term deals for fear of blocking prospects. 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That's not explicit in the post either (like an extension being cheaper)! Hell, I'm looking back and that additional context isn't even apparent on the same page! I will continue to insist it's neither a reading comp or arithmetic problem on my end

Seems pretty explicit to me here that he's talking about swapping Soto in for Ohtani in an otherwise similar offseason plan

Quote

I will say that swapping Soto for Ohtani in the "mega bat + Hoskins + Morel SP trade" plan does leave you with plenty of financial wiggle room

[JD94]

Ohtani > Soto. If you can get Ohtani now, you do it. He’s the best player in the game. I’d hate to pass on Ohtani to save a little money and give up assets for Soto and then he walk after next year and you don’t get either star long term. Now if we miss on Ohtani, absolutely pivot to Soto and do all you can to resign him next offseason. If I’m choosing though, I’m going all in on Ohtani now. 
 

 

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Ohtani > Soto. If you can get Ohtani now, you do it. He’s the best player in the game. I’d hate to pass on Ohtani to save a little money and give up assets for Soto and then he walk after next year and you don’t get either star long term. Now if we miss on Ohtani, absolutely pivot to Soto and do all you can to resign him next offseason. If I’m choosing though, I’m going all in on Ohtani now. 
 

 

there is no pivot.