Your end of season thoughts

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

freeman was like 8 years older than soto, this comparison makes no sense

How old Soto is is irrelevant to the fact that 30 year olds were signing $300M contracts when Freeman was begging for, and didn't receive, $180M.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

How old Soto is is irrelevant to the fact that 30 year olds were signing $300M contracts when Freeman was begging for, and didn't receive, $180M.

none of this makes any sense

[Cuzi]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

none of this makes any sense

It makes perfect sense to anyone that doesn't believe spending $400M on a 1B is a logical baseball decision.

[CubinNY]

The thing about Soto is that his availability is irrelevant to hypothetical discussions. However, if he is available as a trade target, he doesn't fit the Cubs strictly speaking. It's somewhat like trying to shoehorn Bellinger into 1B, when his value is clearly as a CF. 

If they get Soto he's not going to switch to 1B. When was the last time that happened? How does anyone know he can even play 1B? So, if they get him (which I have no problem with) what are they going to do with Happ? I suppose DH or Soto DH. 

But he does not fill a current need. It's more like a MLB The Show type of trade. But far be it from me to poo-poo this stuff because it's fun.

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It makes perfect sense to anyone that doesn't believe spending $400M on a 1B is a logical baseball decision.

He's on a HOF path, so most HOF-type players get paid huge sums of money to play baseball.

Edited October 4, 2023 by CubinNY

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

His on a HOF path, so most HOF-type players get paid huge sums of money to play baseball.

Never said they dont.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm really confused by this idea that because you've paid Soto all this money you must play him in LF even if it doesn't make sense to do so.  This isn't a 'well he's way more valuable in the OF but we have Ian Happ so what're you gonna do' situation, though it is true that Soto absolutely should not play corner OF regularly on the current Cubs roster(and Happ & Suzuki are not getting traded).  Independent of the rest of the roster, Soto is a horrific defensive outfielder.  He should be playing 1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*.  If you don't think he's worth that money then I would understand but disagree(his consistency of bat + age at FA is pretty unprecedented), but this insistence that no dummy would ever play Soto anywhere but the OF is bizarre.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm really confused by this idea that because you've paid Soto all this money you must play him in LF even if it doesn't make sense to do soo.  This isn't a 'well he's way more valuable in the OF but we have Ian Happ so what're you gonna do' situation, though it is true that Soto absolutely should not play corner OF regularly on the current Cubs roster(and Happ & Suzuki are not getting traded).  Independent of the rest of the roster, Soto is a horrific defensive outfielder.  He should be playing 1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*.  If you don't think he's worth that money then I would understand but disagree(his consistency of bat + age at FA is pretty unprecedented), but this insistence that no dummy would ever play Soto anywhere but the OF is bizarre.

It's really not that hard to understand.

No team is going to negotiate a $400M contract with Soto and then move him to 1B. That is a 250% markup on the 1B market. It's the lowest positional value on the diamond.

He should absolutely not be playing "1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*." He should be playing exactly where he is.

Anything in life is worth how much someone is willing to pay. No one in history has come close to this delusional idea that a 1B, no matter how generational his bat is... and lets be real here for once, Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball but he is not a generational bat. When you talk about his bat it's always qualified with being "left handed." He is not Trout. He is not Ohtani. Hell, he's not even Freeman or Olson right now. He's 24 years old and great. He's going to get a boat load of money because of that deadly combination. But he is not going to be moving to 1B on a $400M contract any time soon because the market says no player at that position is worth anywhere near that money.

[squally1313]

Juan Soto is a better hitter than Freddie Freeman, pretty comfortably, unless you think that Freeman has just found a way to consistently out BABIP him by 80+ points like he has the last two years. Soto has a better K rate, a significantly better walk rate, he hits more home runs, I could go on. Freeman is a better baserunner. Freeman signed his deal going into his age 32 season, and got 6/162. If you're signing Soto as a free agent going into 2025 at his age 26 season, you should expect, based on the above, to pay him significantly more per year than Freeman got, based on production, lack of expected dropoff, and general inflation. So instead of $27/year, you're paying $35/year. And you would assume he wants a longer contract, because all players do. So make it ten years, at $35m/year, and you're looking at $350m. 

The last two years combined:

Freeman - .364 BABIP, best in baseball by 13 points among qualified hitters, 

Soto - .273, fifteenth worst in baseball

Edited October 4, 2023 by squally1313

[soccer10k]

33 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

How old Soto is is irrelevant to the fact that 30 year olds were signing $300M contracts when Freeman was begging for, and didn't receive, $180M.

Those 30 year olds were shortstops not corner outfielders like Soto is. And if you want to include Judge, he was coming off a 62 HR, 10 WAR season which, and I don’t know if you’re aware, but Freeman hasn’t done either of. Your comparison is invalid.

[Y2J]

51 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i think you're wrong and out of touch

Soto has never played an inning of baseball at any infield position. This scenario assumes that A. He can play 1B at all and B. He would even consider the move. This is a pipe dream. 

[17 Seconds]

3 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Soto has never played an inning of baseball at any infield position. This scenario assumes that A. He can play 1B at all and B. He would even consider the move. This is a pipe dream. 

a corner OF moving to 1b is not that weird at all, i don't know why you guys are making a big deal out of that. he's awful in the outfield, the move will happen eventually

like others said, he won't move before getting signed. but after he's signed? why not?

Edited October 4, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Those 30 year olds were shortstops not corner outfielders like Soto is. And if you want to include Judge, he was coming off a 62 HR, 10 WAR season which, and I don’t know if you’re aware, but Freeman hasn’t done either of. Your comparison is invalid.

Are you proving my point without realizing you are proving my point?

[CubinNY]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Are you proving my point without realizing you are proving my point?

lol

[soccer10k]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Are you proving my point without realizing you are proving my point?

Not at all. You’re either comparing a corner OFer to a bunch of SS or you’re comparing a 25 year old to a 32 year old at 1B. Neither of which is relevant at all.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It's really not that hard to understand.

No team is going to negotiate a $400M contract with Soto and then move him to 1B. That is a 250% markup on the 1B market. It's the lowest positional value on the diamond.

He should absolutely not be playing "1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*." He should be playing exactly where he is.

Anything in life is worth how much someone is willing to pay. No one in history has come close to this delusional idea that a 1B, no matter how generational his bat is... and lets be real here for once, Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball but he is not a generational bat. When you talk about his bat it's always qualified with being "left handed." He is not Trout. He is not Ohtani. Hell, he's not even Freeman or Olson right now. He's 24 years old and great. He's going to get a boat load of money because of that deadly combination. But he is not going to be moving to 1B on a $400M contract any time soon because the market says no player at that position is worth anywhere near that money.

As Bertz said, the positional adjustment between corner OF and 1B is half a win.  The last 2 years Soto has been a -10 OF, and given his body type despite his young age it's not something that's likely to get better before it gets worse. Therefore in order for Soto to be more valuable as an LF, you have to believe he is either not a -10 OF(an increasingly tough sell since both OAA and DRS agree about the magnitude), or you have to believe that he'd be worse than a -5 1B.  Neither of those are indefensible positions, even if I don't agree with them.  But also neither are worthy of the dismissive insistence that no one could possibly pay $X for a 1B(and as an aside, using total contract value for this conversation is especially silly given the ages we'd be comparing).

[Y2J]

5 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

a corner OF moving to 1b is not that weird at all, i don't know why you guys are making a big deal out of that. he's awful in the outfield, the move will happen eventually

like others said, he won't move before getting signed. but after he's signed? why not?

It isn't weird, but those situations usually involve poo poo teams and players like Bryan LaHair, not $400 million investments. 

[Backtobanks]

Instead of moving Soto to 1B, put him in LF and move Happ to 3B.

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

Instead of moving Soto to 1B, put him in LF and move Happ to 3B.

Fans would lose their minds watching Happ at 3B for 140+ games.

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Instead of moving Soto to 1B, put him in LF and move Happ to 3B.

Sweet they get significantly worse defensively at 2 positions.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Y2J said:

It isn't weird, but those situations usually involve poo poo teams and players like Bryan LaHair, not $400 million investments. 

The best corollary to Soto's situation is probably Miguel Cabrera, who was an elite bat who similarly reached 6 years of service at an extremely young age, and was a very bad defender at both 3B and the OF.  Take a look at his Fangraphs page and without scrolling down, see if you can spot the year he gave up 3B/OF and started playing 1B full time: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-cabrera/1744/stats?position=1B/3B

You can't easily do so from that view because he didn't have a material change to his WAR, thanks to no longer hemorrhaging defensive value.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

I would bet the Padres will be listening on offers for Soto. He's got 1 year left. They failed at making a juggernaut offense. Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts are going absolutely no where unless they do what the Rockies did and pay someone to take them.

However, I agree that trading for Soto, paying him, and then immediately cutting his value in half by sticking him at 1B is a monumentally stupid idea. If you trade for Soto and then pay him, he is playing LF. Happ becomes your DH and he's gone in 3 years.

I agree it is a bad idea to sign a guy and then move him to a position he never played. But I would still trade for him. Why can’t Happ move to 1st? At least he came up as a second baseman. I imagine he could do that. And if not, trade Happ for an actual first baseman. Or trade him for a young arm and sign Candelario to play 1st or 3rd. See if Morel can handle 3rd and/or if Mervis can handle 1st. But this time give Mercis a real chance. Candelario is insurance in the event one of them fails. I think people are thinking way too much in what to do with Soto if we get him. Just get him and figure out the pieces after that. If both Morel and Mervis can handle the corners and Happ isn’t traded yiu figure out who is the DH and just rotate the position. Happ won’t be here forever. So even if Soto did DH half the time, in a few years he would be back in right field no matter any scenario.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The best corollary to Soto's situation is probably Miguel Cabrera, who was an elite bat who similarly reached 6 years of service at an extremely young age, and was a very bad defender at both 3B and the OF.  Take a look at his Fangraphs page and without scrolling down, see if you can spot the year he gave up 3B/OF and started playing 1B full time: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-cabrera/1744/stats?position=1B/3B

You can't easily do so from that view because he didn't have a material change to his WAR, thanks to no longer hemorrhaging defensive value.

The last year he logged over 1000 innings at 3B is 2013, he played 77.1 innings there the rest of his career. He went from 6.1, 6.6, 7.3, 8.6, to 5.2, 4.6, 5.1.

What are you talking about?

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree it is a bad idea to sign a guy and then move him to a position he never played. But I would still trade for him. Why can’t Happ move to 1st? At least he came up as a second baseman. I imagine he could do that. And if not, trade Happ for an actual first baseman. Or trade him for a young arm and sign Candelario to play 1st or 3rd. See if Morel can handle 3rd and/or if Mervis can handle 1st. But this time give Mercis a real chance. Candelario is insurance in the event one of them fails. I think people are thinking way too much in what to do with Soto if we get him. Just get him and figure out the pieces after that. If both Morel and Mervis can handle the corners and Happ isn’t traded yiu figure out who is the DH and just rotate the position. Happ won’t be here forever. So even if Soto did DH half the time, in a few years he would be back in right field no matter any scenario.

You and I both know I'm all about trading Happ, but he just signed an extension and negotiated for a NTC. He's not going anywhere.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It's really not that hard to understand.

No team is going to negotiate a $400M contract with Soto and then move him to 1B. That is a 250% markup on the 1B market. It's the lowest positional value on the diamond.

He should absolutely not be playing "1B/DH *for the sake of his own value*." He should be playing exactly where he is.

Anything in life is worth how much someone is willing to pay. No one in history has come close to this delusional idea that a 1B, no matter how generational his bat is... and lets be real here for once, Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball but he is not a generational bat. When you talk about his bat it's always qualified with being "left handed." He is not Trout. He is not Ohtani. Hell, he's not even Freeman or Olson right now. He's 24 years old and great. He's going to get a boat load of money because of that deadly combination. But he is not going to be moving to 1B on a $400M contract any time soon because the market says no player at that position is worth anywhere near that money.

So base on position value what does Ohtani make if he is only a DH?