Your end of season thoughts

[The_Achiever]

I'm having a hard time coming up with positives going forward.  I don't trust Jed or Ricketts to do what it will truly take to make this a contender.  There just aren't a lot of impact FA available and this team has so many holes to fill.  

I was hoping for a surprise WC birth because I don't see this as building towards something bigger.  They'll probably cobble together enough for a team that will probably be in the wild card hunt but that shouldn't be good enough.   

[The_Achiever]

NM.  Duplicate post.

Edited October 2, 2023 by The_Achiever
Duplicate post

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Generally confused by him saying 'Taillon was who we thought he was' and also 'he pitched way worse than expected' in the same sentence.

Because you dont understand definitions.

I said "he was the mediocre pitcher we thought he was at signing." For his career he hovers in the low 4 ERA. Generally he's a lock for 30 starts with low IP per start. He's the definition of mediocre.

He was still mediocre this year, but a little worse. Instead of right around average he was a few percentage points lower than average. So still nothing unacceptably bad, still performing at his pay grade, still for better or worse keeping you competitive through 2 trips down the lineup card (minus a few weeks at the start of the season), still the same pitcher he's always been. Something the Cubs had in spades. Something the Cubs didn't need to advance the roster. Still mediocre.

[Outshined_One]

The Great News: The rotation. I was extremely skeptical early in the season regarding the Cubs' rotation after 2023, but, Steele, Assad, and Wicks all stepped up in huge ways, and Stroman's first half was excellent. If Taillon doesn't actively crap himself every other game next year, and Stro opts in, this could be the best 1-5 in baseball (assuming health) next year. There's also depth in the system for the first time in forever.

The Good: The offense stepped up. There's a good core here, even without Belli. There's room for improvement, and they were subject to some really annoying slumps, but I think they just need one solid bat instead of the five I thought they needed coming into 2023.

The Mediocre: Coaching and management. I'm not convinced Ross is the guy to lead this team back to the promised land, but credit where it's due for the development of the pitching staff.

The Bad: The fail rate of certain high level hitting prospects coming into the season. PCA, Canario, and Mervis all fell on their faces in the majors, be it because of development/usage or otherwise. Brennen Davis got hurt again and hasn't looked the same. There have been other guys who took steps forward in High A/AA, but Amaya and Morel look like the only guys with a guaranteed spot on the 2024 Opening Day roster.

The Ugly: The bullpen. Aside from Alzolay, the pen needs a complete gut rehab this offseason.

[Rcal10]

I think suggesting PCA, Mervis and Canario all fell on their faces when brought up is a bit harsh. How do you judge PCA on 10AB. Mervis actually hit the ball hard in the majors. He just didn’t find holes. And Canario did well in way fewer AB then he should have had. 

[Backtobanks]

46 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

 

The Good: The offense stepped up. There's a good core here, even without Belli. There's room for improvement, and they were subject to some really annoying slumps, but I think they just need one solid bat instead of the five I thought they needed coming into 2023.

I'm not sure how you can say the offense stepped up even with Bellinger.  Bellinger carried this team for most of the season.  We've got some major holes to fill, if we lose Bellinger and Candelario.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think suggesting PCA, Mervis and Canario all fell on their faces when brought up is a bit harsh. How do you judge PCA on 10AB. Mervis actually hit the ball hard in the majors. He just didn’t find holes. And Canario did well in way fewer AB then he should have had. 

PCA went 0 for 14 with 7 K, I'm not changing my enthusiasm for him as a prospect but he was unequivocally a failure at the plate in that limited time.  Similarly, Mervis may have had some bad luck on batted balls, but his xwOBA was still only .318 and he struck out 32% of the time.  He was bad regardless of the batted ball luck.  Canario I would not categorize as falling on his face, but he played the exact amount he should have.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

The Great News: The rotation. I was extremely skeptical early in the season regarding the Cubs' rotation after 2023, but, Steele, Assad, and Wicks all stepped up in huge ways, and Stroman's first half was excellent. If Taillon doesn't actively crap himself every other game next year, and Stro opts in, this could be the best 1-5 in baseball (assuming health) next year. There's also depth in the system for the first time in forever.

The Good: The offense stepped up. There's a good core here, even without Belli. There's room for improvement, and they were subject to some really annoying slumps, but I think they just need one solid bat instead of the five I thought they needed coming into 2023.

The Mediocre: Coaching and management. I'm not convinced Ross is the guy to lead this team back to the promised land, but credit where it's due for the development of the pitching staff.

The Bad: The fail rate of certain high level hitting prospects coming into the season. PCA, Canario, and Mervis all fell on their faces in the majors, be it because of development/usage or otherwise. Brennen Davis got hurt again and hasn't looked the same. There have been other guys who took steps forward in High A/AA, but Amaya and Morel look like the only guys with a guaranteed spot on the 2024 Opening Day roster.

The Ugly: The bullpen. Aside from Alzolay, the pen needs a complete gut rehab this offseason.

Little, the control is cause for concern, the stuff is there, very nasty.  Except for one hitter he made the Braves and Brewers look helpless, with better control he's damn near un-hittable.

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I'm not sure how you can say the offense stepped up even with Bellinger.  Bellinger carried this team for most of the season.  We've got some major holes to fill, if we lose Bellinger and Candelario.  

Candelario gave the Cubs a 106 wRC (0.2 fWAR) playing essentially half first, half third, which should not be too hard to replace. We got terrible (sub 300 OBP) offensive production at first base and the DH, in theory the two easiest positions to fill. We basically need to find starters in center (where we have a top 15ish prospect in baseball), third, first, and maybe DH, and we need those four positions plus catcher (just call it 2 fWAR, whatever) to total about 15 wins. That plus 15 from Happ, Dansby, Nico, and Seiya (16.4 this past year) gets you to 30, which would have been 5th in baseball. To 'only' repeat our offensive performance (9th in baseball), we need like 10 WAR from those 5 spots. It shouldn't be too tough on that side of the ball. 

[muntjack]

Nelson Velazquez put up a 132 wRC+, so not every call-up fell on their face.

[Outshined_One]

I want to be clear on my PCA comment: I still think he's the top prospect in this system and that he's a Top 20 prospect in MLB. However, his major league stint this season was an abject failure at the plate and on the bases.

[Cuzi]

4 hours ago, The_Achiever said:

I'm having a hard time coming up with positives going forward.  I don't trust Jed or Ricketts to do what it will truly take to make this a contender.  There just aren't a lot of impact FA available and this team has so many holes to fill.  

I was hoping for a surprise WC birth because I don't see this as building towards something bigger.  They'll probably cobble together enough for a team that will probably be in the wild card hunt but that shouldn't be good enough.   

I think there is enough out there to make a good team with what the Cubs have, but they have to make a splash trade. I feel like that "splash" is going to be closer to Alonso than anything insane like Soto.

But say they get Alonso. He's now your 1B/DH. Then they sign Chapman to a moderate deal for 3B. That's 1 great power bat and 1 good power bat injected into the lineup. Mervis starts the year in the majors. PCA probably starts the year in AAA and the team makes a short term commitment on some defensive ace in CF like Harrison Bader. The rest of the money goes to pitching.

[Stratos]

19 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

One thing I've been thinking about the last couple weeks is that we have two years of data on Seiya in RF now and while it's not a particular problem, he's not been a strong defensive asset.  Given that PCA has demonstrated he is not going to be ready to carry an every day offensive load from opening day(and while I hope not, possibly not ever) and no entrenched DH option on the roster, I think you can make a compelling argument to sign Bellinger without even considering his 1B ability.  Though that 1B ability may still be relevant/useful depending on other moves.

We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH and others like Canario and Morel at DH after Shaw comes up to play 3B do we really have room for Bellinger longterm?  He'd fit well in 2024, they could play Morel at 3B and DH Mervis/Canario so there's lots of room at CF/1B for Bellinger in 2024, but in 2025/26 years somebody will probably need to be moved.

Happ is signed through the 2026 season.  I love Happ as a competitor and leader but we need more SLG/HR on this team, and his SLG was .431 for a LF and not much better last year with an inflated AVG/BABIP.  Depending on how things go with PCA/Mervis, I wouldn't mind PCA spending another year in AAA and going with Bellinger in CF in 2024, and giving Mervis a longer shot at 1B in 2024 with Bellinger as a backup and/or Wisdom able to play 1B against LHP.  Then they can think about maybe trading Happ in 2025 or 2026, and putting Bellinger in a corner OF spot.  Happ can stay if Mervis or PCA flames out and McGeary is only a DH.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Cuzi said:

I think there is enough out there to make a good team with what the Cubs have, but they have to make a splash trade. I feel like that "splash" is going to be closer to Alonso than anything insane like Soto.

But say they get Alonso. He's now your 1B/DH. Then they sign Chapman to a moderate deal for 3B. That's 1 great power bat and 1 good power bat injected into the lineup. Mervis starts the year in the majors. PCA probably starts the year in AAA and the team makes a short term commitment on some defensive ace in CF like Harrison Bader. The rest of the money goes to pitching.

While I would be fine with this, I just don’t see the Cubs trading for Alonso. First, what do they lose for him? For one year of Alonso, I wouldn’t deal that much. But I am sure the Mets will ask for a lot. And from what is being reported, Alonso is looking for a long term deal. I don’t see the Cubs commuting the years to him. I do feel they will be in on Chapman. I agree Mervis should be given a chance next year but they need someone who can fill in if he falters. I also like the Bader idea. He is good security in the event PCA struggles. 

Also, instead of Alonso what about Hoskins? How bad was his injury? Wouldn’t he be a good alternative to Alonso? And they don’t lose a prospect. He has always put up very solid offensive numbers. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Rcal10

[17 Seconds]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH and others like Canario and Morel at DH after Shaw comes up to play 3B do we really have room for Bellinger longterm?  He'd fit well in 2024, they could play Morel at 3B and DH Mervis/Canario so there's lots of room at CF/1B for Bellinger in 2024, but in 2025/26 years somebody will probably need to be moved.

most of those guys will probably suck. you really would consider passing on a star bat because of that group of players?

[Stratos]

19 hours ago, Derwood said:

Though the team performed slightly above expectations, I hope Hoyer sees that this was more or less the ceiling for this roster. The team isn't going to take the next step with a little bit of tinkering. Happy/Seiya/Hoerner/Dansby is a solid start, but you've GOT to make a splash at MULTIPLE positions

Actually if this team had a solid bullpen the whole year they could have been pushing 90 wins this season.  We gave up a lot of wins in April, May, and Sept because of the pen.  Our pythagorean W/L was 90-72.  We had the 3rd best offense in the NL behind Dodgers and Braves.

[17 Seconds]

7 hours ago, The_Achiever said:

I'm having a hard time coming up with positives going forward.  I don't trust Jed or Ricketts to do what it will truly take to make this a contender.  There just aren't a lot of impact FA available and this team has so many holes to fill.  

I was hoping for a surprise WC birth because I don't see this as building towards something bigger.  They'll probably cobble together enough for a team that will probably be in the wild card hunt but that shouldn't be good enough.   

they outscored the opposition by 100 runs (and are bringing the majority of the good parts back), have money to spend, and have a top farm system. I understand being pessimistic about the team actually going for it, but I don't agree with the idea that they aren't building towards anything. I also don't think they have as many holes to fill as you suggest. I don't think they are many peices off from a 90 win team. we would have won that many this year if not for a flawed bullpen (worsened by late injuries), not playing our best team early in the season, and absurdly bad luck. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH and others like Canario and Morel at DH after Shaw comes up to play 3B do we really have room for Bellinger longterm?  He'd fit well in 2024, they could play Morel at 3B and DH Mervis/Canario so there's lots of room at CF/1B for Bellinger in 2024, but in 2025/26 years somebody will probably need to be moved.

Happ is signed through the 2026 season.  I love Happ as a competitor and leader but we need more SLG/HR on this team, and his SLG was .431 for a LF and not much better last year with an inflated AVG/BABIP.  Depending on how things go with PCA/Mervis, I wouldn't mind PCA spending another year in AAA and going with Bellinger in CF in 2024, and giving Mervis a longer shot at 1B in 2024 with Bellinger as a backup and/or Wisdom able to play 1B against LHP.  Then they can think about maybe trading Happ in 2025 or 2026, and putting Bellinger in a corner OF spot.  Happ can stay if Mervis or PCA flames out and McGeary is only a DH.

You have an awful lot of unproven players in your team moving forward. While I would be ok with Morel spending all off season learning 3rd base I still want a big bat. I think Hoskins makes a lot of sense. He can play first and DH. If Mervis comes up and does well, he and Hoskins can split 1st and DH. As for PCA in center, I am fine with them doing that, but if they do I would like someone like Bader signed as well as a perfect fall back if PCA falters. For me a solid off season would be Hoskins/Bader and then a qualitybsyatting pitcher. And also some pen arms. 

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Cuzi said:

I think there is enough out there to make a good team with what the Cubs have, but they have to make a splash trade. I feel like that "splash" is going to be closer to Alonso than anything insane like Soto.

But say they get Alonso. He's now your 1B/DH. Then they sign Chapman to a moderate deal for 3B. That's 1 great power bat and 1 good power bat injected into the lineup. Mervis starts the year in the majors. PCA probably starts the year in AAA and the team makes a short term commitment on some defensive ace in CF like Harrison Bader. The rest of the money goes to pitching.

Chapman for a moderate deal?  He'll probably sign a multiple year contract at about $20 million per year.

[Irrelevant Dude]

47 minutes ago, Stratos said:

We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH 

I think it's pretty clear that Mervis doesn't factor into the Cubs long term plans.   McGeary is a fringe prospect at best right now.  Whatever the Cubs decide to do at 1B, those two guys will have very little to do with the decision.

[PJCubfan]

I am not a predictor.  I had hoped for a winning season and got that.  The last month was subpar at least!

I would like to see a more seasoned manager, one who can handle the bullpen better.  I understand the bullpen was not talented but David Ross kept sending the same pitchers in tough situation, knowing they didn't have the stuff to get the job done.  Leiter was the prime example of that.  In addition to Ross and the bullpen not returning, I would say goodbye to Wisdom and Hendricks.  I would like to see the majority of the team return, but that's up to Mr. Ricketts and how much he wants to spend.

Joe Girardi is sitting at Marquee just waiting to be asked to take over as manager.  I don't know if he would be a long term answer, but he'd be a step up from David.  I like Ross but he's shown he hasn't really grown into the job.  The Javier Assad/Marcus Stroman situation proves that, among many other blunders that cost the Cubs games.

It's not time to just spin wheels, it's time to move forward.  The nucleus is almost there.  Some young talent and some veterans having career years.

GO CUBS!

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You have an awful lot of unproven players in your team moving forward. While I would be ok with Morel spending all off season learning 3rd base I still want a big bat. I think Hoskins makes a lot of sense. He can play first and DH. If Mervis comes up and does well, he and Hoskins can split 1st and DH. As for PCA in center, I am fine with them doing that, but if they do I would like someone like Bader signed as well as a perfect fall back if PCA falters. For me a solid off season would be Hoskins/Bader and then a qualitybsyatting pitcher. And also some pen arms. 

Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger.  I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice.  Bellinger should be a priority.  At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA.

I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think.  Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal.  We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You have an awful lot of unproven players in your team moving forward. While I would be ok with Morel spending all off season learning 3rd base I still want a big bat. I think Hoskins makes a lot of sense. He can play first and DH. If Mervis comes up and does well, he and Hoskins can split 1st and DH. As for PCA in center, I am fine with them doing that, but if they do I would like someone like Bader signed as well as a perfect fall back if PCA falters. For me a solid off season would be Hoskins/Bader and then a qualitybsyatting pitcher. And also some pen arms. 

Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger.  I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice.  Bellinger should be a priority.  At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA.

I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think.  Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal.  We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.

[Stratos]

Here's my 2024 payroll commitment breakdown for luxury tax purposes.

• 148 million:  guaranteed contracts (assuming Gomes and Stroman come back, and Hendricks re-signs for 12m (10.5m salary + 1.5m buyout)
• 10m in arbitration salaries (Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather)
• 2m for Steele + Wicks/Assad
• 3m for pre-arb bench bats (e.g. Amaya, Morel, Tauchman)
• 3m for pre-arb pen arms (e.g. Hughes, Thompson, Wesneski)
• 15m = dead weight (Barnhart, Mancini, Bote)
• 3m in minor league 40-man salaries
• 17m in player benefits

TOTAL PAYROLL = 201 million

2024 luxury tax cap = 237 million

So there's about an estimated 36 million in payroll they still have under the cap to use to add players, keeping in mind they like to keep at least 5 million under the cap for in-season flexibility.  That would be about enough to sign an impact player like Bellinger (26m AAV over 6 years?) plus a couple of quality FA veteran pen arms.  The team comes back essentially unchanged but (hopefully) a deeper pen for late-innings, unless they also make a trade.  If no Bellinger then they have to replace his bat in the lineup and find a solution for CF and 1B.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Here's my 2024 payroll commitment breakdown for luxury tax purposes.

• 148 million:  guaranteed contracts (assuming Gomes and Stroman come back, and Hendricks re-signs for 12m (10.5m salary + 1.5m buyout)
• 10m in arbitration salaries (Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather)
• 2m for Steele + Wicks/Assad
• 3m for pre-arb bench bats (e.g. Amaya, Morel, Tauchman)
• 3m for pre-arb pen arms (e.g. Hughes, Thompson, Wesneski)
• 15m = dead weight (Barnhart, Mancini, Bote)
• 3m in minor league 40-man salaries
• 17m in player benefits

TOTAL PAYROLL = 201 million

2024 luxury tax cap = 237 million

So there's about an estimated 36 million in payroll they still have under the cap to use to add players, keeping in mind they like to keep at least 5 million under the cap for in-season flexibility.  That would be about enough to sign an impact player like Bellinger (26m AAV over 6 years?) plus a couple of quality FA veteran pen arms.  The team comes back essentially unchanged but (hopefully) a deeper pen for late-innings, unless they also make a trade.  If no Bellinger then they have to replace his bat in the lineup and find a solution for CF and 1B.

Yes, if they don’t resign Bellinger than if Hoskins is healthy I would be fine with him. Sign him and maybe Bader as insurance for PCA. Then spend whatever is left on pitching. Morel should work on playing 3rd base all off season.