Has solid start changed your expectations for 2023 Cubs?

[UMFan83]

We're kind of at that part of the season where its still super early to draw definitive conclusions, but we are starting to learn more about a team's identity.  There have been plenty of teams historically that start off well and still end up losing 90+ games, but at least so far it feels like what the Cubs are doing is fairly sustainable.  No, the offense probably isn't going to finish 3rd in the league in runs per game like it is now, but it looks like it will be better than last year.  Plus there are guys like Morel and Mervis in Iowa that can provide reinforcements at positions of need (1B and DH). 

I had them in the 74-78 win range to start the season and maybe I'm just feeling good about the 7-3 stretch here but I'm bumping it up to 80-84 wins while allowing for the possibility that they might actually be playoff caliber.

Edited April 18, 2023 by UMFan83

[17 Seconds]

i still think they're mediocre but i'm now more confident that they're mediocre instead of bad

Edited April 18, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[jersey cubs fan]

3 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i still think they're mediocre but i'm now more confident that they're mediocre instead of bad

Yeah, that’s my feeling. The downside risk may have stabilized but I don’t think they are threatening the upside, yet. 

[stitchface]

39 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Yeah, that’s my feeling. The downside risk may have stabilized but I don’t think they are threatening the upside, yet. 

still fully expecting a stretch of losing 12 of 15 - maybe two!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Before the season I had them at 77-78 wins. Maybe I bump that a game now but not enough to really matter. So pretty much the same as before.

[champaignchris]

I had them at 83 wins, but a fun team to watch, and that’s still where i’m at. 

Seiya injury and Mancini slow start aside, they’ve basically had everything go right for them so far this year.  There will eventually be some tough injuries, bad breaks and slumps. We’ll see how they navigate those. 

[UMFan83]

Well I feel dumb for drinking the kool aid this afternoon 😅.  I just did not have a very optimistic outlook on this years team, and I'm seeing some things that I believe are positive and sustainable.  But of course the Cubs can just as easily go 2-5 in their next 7 and all the happy vibes go away.  Long season with many peaks and valleys to go.

[David]

Nah I'm right where I was at 86-90.

I'd have voted 88-92 if it were a choice, tho.

9 down.  

Edited April 18, 2023 by David

[Bertz]

I feel better, but not by a ton.  That said I was amongst the more positive folks here from the jump so I had less to move than most.

Locking in some wins is good, but I don't think much has happened that impacts the medium to long term outlook.  Bellinger's contact rate improvements are the only thing that feels like it definitively means something.  Steele's 3rd time through the order effectiveness passes the eye test for me too (especially since it started last year).  Everything else I'm cautiously optimistic about at best.

[stitchface]

1 hour ago, stitchface said:

still fully expecting a stretch of losing 12 of 15 - maybe two!

I am, however, feeling quite confident in Wisdom hitting 86 home runs.

[Cubs2023]

I came in with pretty darn low expectations, so they’re definitely exceeding it so far. I think the offense will inevitability take a step back, but I’m also hopeful the defense will step it up a bit. I have hopes they can finish .500 right now, but check back with me in a month. Sample sizes are just so darn small at this point.

[muntjack]

I feel like the ceiling is a bit higher.

84-88 wins if they call up the boys from AAA in a timely fashion. 

88-93 wins if they trade for an ace in July.

[Tim]

I was the one calling everyone a ninny for being doom and gloom. 

I expect (squeaking into the) playoffs and my position hasn't changed.

[imb]

i think so, in the sense that i had no optimism 3 weeks ago that they would try and be relevant up to the deadline, and now i think they will be

[Brock Beauchamp]

54 minutes ago, Tim said:

I was the one calling everyone a ninny for being doom and gloom. 

I expect (squeaking into the) playoffs and my position hasn't changed.

I think the Cubs’ path to the postseason is through St Louis. I know it’s often foolish to underrate the Cards but their pitching staff is shaky af and Arenado/Goldschmidt are almost a given to decline YoY. They were too good last year and are too old for that to happen again.

I think the Brewers are pretty legit but losing Woodruff could seriously hamper them long-term if Houser can’t come back and be even somewhat effective. But they have *a ton* of good positional prospects in or near MLB. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I’m still sticking with 92 wins.

[David]

10 down

[Bull]

10 hours ago, Tim said:

I was the one calling everyone a ninny for being doom and gloom. 

I expect (squeaking into the) playoffs and my position hasn't changed.

I said this team would remind people of 2015. I think it does, but with so many of the prospects still yet to reach the majors, maybe its more like if ownership had shamed them into spending too much in 2014. The result, i think, will still be barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round.

[BigbadB]

I predicted 86-90 with emphasis on 86. I'm now thinking 90 might be reachable with the right roster additions/deletions and upgrades at the trade deadline. What's Hendricks' status for a return? 

[CubUgly]

16 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

i still think they're mediocre but i'm now more confident that they're mediocre instead of bad

I would agree that the lineup as constructed now is mediocre, with too many holes right now, that could change if let's say Mervis and Morel continue hitting and come up and provide more upside in that regard.

But I would not say the pitching, whether it be starters or bullpen is mediocre,  I think it's at the very least above average. 

[Derwood]

10% of the season in, and the Cubs have the second best win % in the NL and a healthy run diff. 

I’m hoping that if a slide happens (esp offensively) that Jed will be quick to call up Morel/Mervis to shake things up

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

I would agree that the lineup as constructed now is mediocre, with too many holes right now, that could change if let's say Mervis and Morel continue hitting and come up and provide more upside in that regard.

But I would not say the pitching, whether it be starters or bullpen is mediocre,  I think it's at the very least above average. 

Welcome to the site!

[squally1313]

13 hours ago, imb said:

i think so, in the sense that i had no optimism 3 weeks ago that they would try and be relevant up to the deadline, and now i think they will be

Yeah, I think a poor start would have put Stroman, Belli, Happ, Gomes, etc on the block and take away any urgency to aggressively promote the talent in the minors. Now they can't really get away with that route, as much as ownership might like to. 

I still don't see a lot of top end talent and it's really hard to thread the needle of being a Good Team by throwing a barrage of 2-3 win players at the wall. But maybe you convince a couple teams to take a volume approach to our crowded farm system and trade us some immediate talent. Cardinals slow start, Woodruff already on the shelf for months...there's a path there. 

[CubinNY]

UMFan83 posted elsewhere that they have to run a gauntlet of really good teams in May. I'm going to reserve judgment on my expectations until then.

They are clearly a top 6 team in NL if the pitching holds up. Better if Taillon and Hayden can improve. If they bring up Mervis soon who knows? They literally cannot be any worse at 1st base/DH.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

16 games should statistically have a small impact on your assessment of team quality.  Not zero, especially with the run differential, but not a ton.

But if you thought this was ~75-win team before the season, they've now banked 3 extra wins, so you would project them to 78 wins without changing your opinion on their talent.

Fwiw, fangraphs now has them projected to finish 80-82 with a 27% chance of making the playoffs