Cubs2023

Everyone knew they schedule was going to get tougher, which is why the start to the season was a bit disappointing, as they could have won 4-5 more games pretty easily. I suspect we don't see them back above .500 this year. Unfortunately, as we suspected, this is not a very good team. Combine that with wasting an opportunity to win several more games already this year.. not a good combination.

It's been a very rough start. Still plenty of time for adjustment.. but man.

So we should accept losing a bunch of winnable games because Ross likes to take the "long view" on the season? Sounds like nonsense to me.

Beginning of the season through April 19: Cubs were hitting .319 with RISP (126 wRC+), which was good for 4th best in the MLB. No surprise, they went 11-6 over that stretch. From April 20 through today: Cubs are hitting .214 with RISP (65 wRC+), which is second worst in the MLB. Unsurprisingly, they have gone 6-12 over that stretch. Lots of different players to be blamed over this stretch. Really, all of them have essentially played a role at some point.

You hate to see that!

Since 4/28, Patrick Wisdom has 15 strikeouts over 30 plate appearances. Folks, Wisdom has hit a 50% k-rate over the last week.

Increase that to 48% K-rate for Wisdom over the last week.

Rough first game for Mervis. Don't take that the wrong way - not saying anything about his long term abilities. But a tough debut for sure.

42.3% heading into today (over the last week). Think it's at 46.4% when you add in today's at bats now. He was slugging .500 over that period, though. But I have been very concerned with his hitting since the Dodgers series. Heading into today's game since then: .182/.294/.409, 92 wRC+, 39.2% K%.

I've noticed that as well haha. So much better.

Damn, even Hosmer could have done that!! /s

Let's get this thing back on track, Cubbies.

Yeah, you can't just take away a series against a bad team, because then you have to adjust for circumstances for every other team too. Reality is that this team has easily underperformed what their output has been. The question is whether or not they can continue to product this output. If so, it should even out somewhat over time. If not, then we're just going to look back on this period as a massively wasted opportunity to bank a good amount of wins.

Has to be almost impossible to do at this point in the season.

That's a road trip you can't have there. Squad may have just cost themselves any chance at making a serious run at a playoff spot. At least we'll get a chance to see the youngins go at it. That's what is most important in the end anyway.

Currently .500 and should probably be at least 5+ games above it. Not great, guys. Not great.

Man…

Hitting w/ RISP has been brutal the last couple weeks.

They’re definitely in trouble. They could probably afford being 10 games back of the Pirates.. but getting this far behind the Brewers.. that ain’t good.

The team is starting to get back to what I figured they would be - an improved but non-playoff squad. Some promising things, but also so close that it gets frustrating.

Despite losing three of four against the Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs still found themselves in a favorable position, starting the season at 12-9. They followed up that disappointing performance with an impressive 6-0 win to start a three-game homestand against the Padres, but then dropped the second game of the set. It has been a better-than-expected start to the season for the Cubs, who now have a 29.7% chance to make the playoffs, via FanGraphs. The club had an 11.2% chance to make the postseason when the season kicked off. Numerous variables have contributed to this promising start – great starting pitching, timely relief pitching, and strong starts from Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Patrick Wisdom. However, with the Dodgers series exposing some potential weaknesses for the Cubs roster, it’s time to take a pessimistic view on a promising start. Here are three things that could potentially have Cubs fans worried as we head into late April: The bullpen rotation, especially the closing spot, is of concern right now. After a solid start to the season, reliever Michael Fulmer has had issues over his last several appearances. In his last 1.1 innings pitched, Fulmer has given up five hits, six earned runs, and blown two saves. Since his appearance against Seattle on 4/10, Fulmer has an ERA of 13.50, with a K/9 rate of 7.50, BB/9 rate of 4.50, and HR/9 rate of 3.00. These marks are well off the standard he has set since moving to the Tigers bullpen in 2021. The Cubs bullpen has been inconsistent - and just straight-up unimpressive at times - accumulating an ERA of 4.11 thus far, which places them at 18th in the MLB. There have also been less-than-stellar showings from Julian Merryweather, Brad Boxberger, and Javier Assad. Whether it’s David Ross pushing the right buttons, the relievers finding improvement on their own, or needing replacements, the Cubs bullpen is a cause for concern this season. Though there is some promise from Keegan Thompson, Adbert Alzolay, Michael Rucker, and Mark Leiter, not all is negative in this respect. Patrick Wisdom has had a phenomenal start to the season, which has played a large role in the Cubs’ start. He has a slash line of .256/.310/.679. However, his hitting has been too much boom-or-bust to start the season. Of Wisdom’s 20 hits this season, nine have been home runs – 14 have been extra-base hits. He currently had an ISO of .423, far ahead of his career high of .287 in 2021 and .220 last year. His Barrel% and HardHit% are well above his career highs, which has led to his .989 OPS is well above his career average. While this is good news for the Cubs, one has to wonder if a regression is in store for Wisdom. It is still being determined how his season may progress once he stops hitting home runs at such a high rate. Hopefully, the Dodgers series isn’t the beginning of this - since the beginning of that series, Wisdom has gone 3-21 (.158) over the five-game stretch, with a K% of 42.9%, .211 ISO, and a slash line of .158/.238/—368 (64 wRC+). Here we are, continuing to be worried about things promising to start the season, but should the Cubs have a better start, given how strong the starting rotation has been? Is the starting pitching depth good enough? With an ERA of 3.09, the Cubs starting pitching has the 4th best ERA in the MLB and 2nd best in the NL. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly have been particularly impressive, giving up only 19 earned runs over 82.1 innings pitched – a combined ERA of 2.08. All three pitchers are off to career-best starts. If a regression is in store for these pitchers, can the rest of the rotation pick up the slack? This part becomes worrisome, as Jameson Taillon is on the IL with a left groin strain, Kyle Hendricks is still fully recovering, and his effectiveness is unknown. Hayden Wesneski has had a disappointing start to the season. If we see some regression from the top of the starting rotation, there is too much uncertainty with the other starts and the bullpen to feel comfortable with how the Cubs may respond. After the Padres series, the schedule gets more favorable for the Cubs moving forward. The next couple of weeks may go a long way in determining exactly what type of team the Cubs have this year. View full article

I came in with pretty darn low expectations, so they’re definitely exceeding it so far. I think the offense will inevitability take a step back, but I’m also hopeful the defense will step it up a bit. I have hopes they can finish .500 right now, but check back with me in a month. Sample sizes are just so darn small at this point.

Great stuff! The Mervis and Morel situations are very intriguing. It just feels like it’s a matter of time with Mervis at this point, but still TBD on the timeline of Morel. While I want this Wisdom hot streak to last as long as possible, it will be interesting to see how things goes once he comes back down to Earth a little.