Cubs sign Swanson (7/177)

[sneakypower]

 

Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.

because of the career year

 

Just from 20-21 he was 34th in WAR, still ahead of Trout and Devers, also ahead of Nolan Arenado, Sean Murphy, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Trevor Story, etc.

yeah he had anomalously high value from baserunning & fielding efficiency, pretty reminiscent of a former Braves standout

 

our offense is still very likely quite worse than an already pitiful offense from last year despite now spending pretty significant money from an artificially tight budget

[jersey cubs fan]

This is fine

[Bertz]

My ideal path forward from here is something like:

 

- Nate Eovaldi (2/40)

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/10)

- Sign Michael Brantley (1/15)

- Trade Madrigal for the best young reliever he can net you

 

You blow past the luxury tax, but so much comes off after this year that you can be very active in FA again next winter and still duck back under the tax then. And that's a really good and deep team. Light on stars but good essentially up and down the entire roster.

 

I think especially if you're cruising past the luxury tax it's a tough pill to swallow to sign Eovaldi, but I don't have a super high opinion of him though. The upside is there compared to your Smylys and Klubers, but I just don't think that HR rate is gonna stay low enough to be more than an averageish SP.

 

For me, the biggest questions are 1) is the LT a hard limit now that you've banked Swanson? 2) can you trade for a C that's better than the remaining FA(Jansen, maybe Murphy, etc)? and 3) what type of arm can you get for Madrigal? 4) what AAV is gonna be needed to extend Hoerner now?

 

You basically have to trade for a catcher if you want to fill every spot with an unequivocally good player. My guess at a good but more likely offseason would probably be to trade for the other SP and handle everything else via FA, and catcher's just going to be someone uninspiring who gets high marks for the more nebulous parts of the job.

 

But yeah the LT is the big question now. I am cautiously optimistic, the way things have played out they can a

still do one more multi-year deal and still start next offseason at approximately the same payroll they started this one at (and that's assuming Stroman opts in).

[Bertz]

because of the career year

 

Just from 20-21 he was 34th in WAR, still ahead of Trout and Devers, also ahead of Nolan Arenado, Sean Murphy, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Trevor Story, etc.

yeah he had anomalously high value from baserunning & fielding efficiency, pretty reminiscent of a former Braves standout

 

our offense is still very likely quite worse than an already pitiful offense from last year despite now spending pretty significant money from an artificially tight budget

 

3 years in a row? Quite the anomaly!

[Tim]

It was a fine signing. I would have much preferred Correa or Turner, but this'll do. It still leaves us with a big gap between where we are as an offense and where we need to be.

 

Here's one proposal to finish off the offseason.

 

1) Sign Brandon Belt - He's coming off a couple of injury-plagued years and saw his production hurt last year after his injury. But he's a lefty hitter that takes walks and hits when healthy. We've got injury insurance, but we need a masher to pair with Mash.

 

2) Sign Justin Turner - Dude can still hit. His play at 3B was questionable last year, but he's been otherwise good out there.

 

3) Trade Thompson+ for Jansen - Toronto has to be pissed about the return Oakland got for Murphy. But that should help keep the price fairly reasonable here.

 

4) Trade prospects for Trevor Rogers - He sucked last year, but the stuff is still there and the Cubs should help him get back into his 2021 form.

 

5) Trade Madrigal for AJ Puk - or some similar deal. Oakland gave most of their 2B starts last year to none other than Tony Kemp. Madrigal would be an upgrade for them.

 

6) Sign FA Reliever - I'll trust the Cubs here.

 

----------------

 

C - Jansen

1B - Mervis

2B - Hoerner

3B - Turner

SS - Swanson

LF - Happ

CF - Bellinger

RF - Suzuki

DH - Belt

 

SP - Stroman

SP - Steele

SP - Taillon

SP - Rogers

SP - Hendricks

SP - Wesneski

SP - Sampson

SP - Kilian

SP - Assad

[Marlin Bystro]

Wow I have to eat crow. That’s a more reasonable deal than I expected. Still would have preferred Correa on his deal but this is still pretty good.

[Tryptamine]

Wow I have to eat crow. That’s a more reasonable deal than I expected. Still would have preferred Correa on his deal but this is still pretty good.

 

This pretty much where I'm at. It's not the guy I wanted, but at least the contract is decent.

[muntjack]

I was trying to get hyped, but after spending 5 minutes watching Swanson's defensive highlights on Youtube, I can now confirm that defensive metrics are horsefeathers. Nico is a better SS with a similar arm.

 

Seriously, highlight videos are supposed to make a player look better than they are but it was terribly uninspiring. Not sure he made a single play that would crack Javy's top 100.

 

It may have affected my experience that Chip kept saying "that's a Dansby dandy", which I found profoundly disturbing.

[chopsx9]

It was a fine signing. I would have much preferred Correa or Turner, but this'll do. It still leaves us with a big gap between where we are as an offense and where we need to be.

 

 

I'd have preferred Turner by a fair bit but I'm just fine in "missing" out on Correa. Doesn't matter - we won't know till we know. Could the Cubs have signed a worse player than Heyward when they did? What was the acceptance rate on that signing? 102%? It's not like they resigned Andrelton Simmons - now that's a defensive first player.

[pitchcs]

The AAV is going to matter a lot unless you have an owner you trust to spend, regardless of luxury tax. I'd rather have the good player in Correa for 5 more years with the chance of adding another star player with him than the much worse player in Swanson at the same AAV. The new model in MLB for the top free agents is going to be giving them 10+ year contracts so if you're uncomfortable with that now, you'll never sign the top free agent in any class. In which case, the Cubs likely won't matter anyways.

 

I’m not a big Swanson guy, but “much worse player” than Correa is certainly a leap I’m not willing to take

[Post Count Padder]

It was a fine signing. I would have much preferred Correa or Turner, but this'll do. It still leaves us with a big gap between where we are as an offense and where we need to be.

 

Here's one proposal to finish off the offseason.

 

1) Sign Brandon Belt - He's coming off a couple of injury-plagued years and saw his production hurt last year after his injury. But he's a lefty hitter that takes walks and hits when healthy. We've got injury insurance, but we need a masher to pair with Mash.

 

2) Sign Justin Turner - Dude can still hit. His play at 3B was questionable last year, but he's been otherwise good out there.

 

3) Trade Thompson+ for Jansen - Toronto has to be pissed about the return Oakland got for Murphy. But that should help keep the price fairly reasonable here.

 

4) Trade prospects for Trevor Rogers - He sucked last year, but the stuff is still there and the Cubs should help him get back into his 2021 form.

 

5) Trade Madrigal for AJ Puk - or some similar deal. Oakland gave most of their 2B starts last year to none other than Tony Kemp. Madrigal would be an upgrade for them.

 

6) Sign FA Reliever - I'll trust the Cubs here.

 

----------------

 

C - Jansen

1B - Mervis

2B - Hoerner

3B - Turner

SS - Swanson

LF - Happ

CF - Bellinger

RF - Suzuki

DH - Belt

 

SP - Stroman

SP - Steele

SP - Taillon

SP - Rogers

SP - Hendricks

SP - Wesneski

SP - Sampson

SP - Kilian

SP - Assad

I've wanted Jansen all off-season. Hedges just signed with the Pirates so that's another option off the board. I think what you have here is reasonable though with Wisdom I think it's an either/or with Belt and Turner. Also I feel like Keegan is too important the roster next year and beyond but maybe I'm over valuing him. Just nice to have finally developed an impact arm with him and Steele.

[The_Achiever]

I really like this deal.

 

Now go get Justin Turner and a catcher.

[David]

I was trying to get hyped, but after spending 5 minutes watching Swanson's defensive highlights on Youtube, I can now confirm that defensive metrics are horsefeathers. Nico is a better SS with a similar arm.

 

Seriously, highlight videos are supposed to make a player look better than they are but it was terribly uninspiring. Not sure he made a single play that would crack Javy's top 100.

 

It may have affected my experience that Chip kept saying "that's a Dansby dandy", which I found profoundly disturbing.

Remember what Stone used to call Morandini?

[d_money]

I was trying to get hyped, but after spending 5 minutes watching Swanson's defensive highlights on Youtube, I can now confirm that defensive metrics are horsefeathers. Nico is a better SS with a similar arm.

 

Seriously, highlight videos are supposed to make a player look better than they are but it was terribly uninspiring. Not sure he made a single play that would crack Javy's top 100.

 

It may have affected my experience that Chip kept saying "that's a Dansby dandy", which I found profoundly disturbing.

Remember what Stone used to call Morandini?

The dandy little glove man

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UMFan83]

Just want to remind everyone Swanson has hit more HRs at SS than all the other FA options since the pandemic

 

Was second in ISO behind Correa but ahead of Turner and Bogaerts

[Bertz]

Didn't make the connection til I saw it on Reddit but the two biggest contracts in Cubs' history have now been given to guys traded for Shelby Miller.

[UMFan83]

 

I wouldn't think someone with such weak arm strength could be so strong defensively at SS, unless arm strength differences are negligible and thus just don't matter that much.

[Cubswin11]

[Brian707]

The AAV is going to matter a lot unless you have an owner you trust to spend, regardless of luxury tax. I'd rather have the good player in Correa for 5 more years with the chance of adding another star player with him than the much worse player in Swanson at the same AAV. The new model in MLB for the top free agents is going to be giving them 10+ year contracts so if you're uncomfortable with that now, you'll never sign the top free agent in any class. In which case, the Cubs likely won't matter anyways.

 

Exactly all of this. MLB is going the same way the NHL was doing contracts 10-15 years ago. Remember the Hossa deal?

 

Not to say that I'm pissed at the Swanson signing, it's just that people freak out about these other deals and the years attached

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I like it.

 

Now two consecutive offseasons of nice moves, and it's nice to see the future finally start to take shape. Swanson, Hoerner, PCA up the middle, hopefully Mervis and Suzuki on the right side, and then some uncertainty on the left side and top of rotation, but potentially with a star in Brennan. C's and DHes as needed.

 

And who knows, maybe Soto or Ohtani in the next few years :beg:

[Bertz]

 

I wouldn't think someone with such weak arm strength could be so strong defensively at SS, unless arm strength differences are negligible and thus just don't matter that much.

 

I've been wondering about this too. Lots of guys I've looked at this winter play left side of the infield and have noodle arm grades. Justin Turner was another I noticed recently.

 

I kind of wonder if outfielders wreck the grade curve a bit here? They get a lot more running start 100% effort throws. Like Javy by this measure is also only 70th-80th percentile, and we know he's got a mega elite arm.

 

Swanson's good enough at SS right now that he probably stays there for most of his deal. Probably the last year or two though we should assume he'll be at 2B. Which I wonder if that impacts any Hoerner extension talk? Probably not?

[Bertz]

 

Really strong ZiPS projections for Swanson. 4+ WAR the next two years, 3+ the two after that, and even in year 6 he'd still prorate out to just over 2 WAR on a per 600 PA basis.

[The SABR Gamer]

I was trying to get hyped, but after spending 5 minutes watching Swanson's defensive highlights on Youtube, I can now confirm that defensive metrics are horsefeathers. Nico is a better SS with a similar arm.

 

Seriously, highlight videos are supposed to make a player look better than they are but it was terribly uninspiring. Not sure he made a single play that would crack Javy's top 100.

 

It may have affected my experience that Chip kept saying "that's a Dansby dandy", which I found profoundly disturbing.

 

This post is borderline dumb as horsefeathers, sorry for being an horsefeathers though.

 

The presence or lack of highlight reel plays is not exactly how defensive metrics determine value, and while they aren’t perfect, they are pretty good.

[17 Seconds]

a human adult

 

[muntjack]

I was trying to get hyped, but after spending 5 minutes watching Swanson's defensive highlights on Youtube, I can now confirm that defensive metrics are horsefeathers. Nico is a better SS with a similar arm.

 

Seriously, highlight videos are supposed to make a player look better than they are but it was terribly uninspiring. Not sure he made a single play that would crack Javy's top 100.

 

It may have affected my experience that Chip kept saying "that's a Dansby dandy", which I found profoundly disturbing.

 

This post is borderline dumb as horsefeathers, sorry for being an horsefeathers though.

 

The presence or lack of highlight reel plays is not exactly how defensive metrics determine value, and while they aren’t perfect, they are pretty good.

 

The fact that you can't tell my tongue was firmly in my cheek says you should reevaluate your reading comprehension before criticizing a post.