Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[Outshined_One]

When the FA class next year is highlighted by Allen Lazard and Jakobi Meyers then yeah, I don't mind this trade. It also frees up their draft so they don't feel like they have to take a WR in the 1st or 2nd now. I'd love to see them trade back for a 1st and a 2nd then grab a DE,OL,WR in the first 2 rounds.

 

I 100% agree with this and am kind of amazed that even while they mention it being a factor, it's being almost completely discounted in grading the trade by the pundits. The lack of options in FA plus stealing a resource from the Packers makes the grade from me significantly higher than the deal would be in a vacuum.

 

This is a rare situation where both of the following statements are true:

 

1 - This was substantial overpay by the Bears.

2 - This was a good move by the Bears.

[WrigleyField 22]

When the FA class next year is highlighted by Allen Lazard and Jakobi Meyers then yeah, I don't mind this trade. It also frees up their draft so they don't feel like they have to take a WR in the 1st or 2nd now. I'd love to see them trade back for a 1st and a 2nd then grab a DE,OL,WR in the first 2 rounds.

 

I 100% agree with this and am kind of amazed that even while they mention it being a factor, it's being almost completely discounted in grading the trade by the pundits. The lack of options in FA plus stealing a resource from the Packers makes the grade from me significantly higher than the deal would be in a vacuum.

To play devils advocate, if they kept that pick and used it on an overdraft WR instead of best player available, they’d get criticized for it. They didn’t have to put themselves in a position where an overpay for a wr via trade was a viable option, they could have done something to help Fields 6 months ago. They didn’t. They put themselves in a position where they were desperate enough to overpay, and by all accounts, they overpaid. Frankly I’m glad they did it for multiple reasons, but it deserves to be viewed honestly.

While I did want them to overpay in FA months ago I can also say that there are parts of Claypool's potential I like a lot more than some of the options 6 months ago (say Kirk) based on where they can line up positionally. Maybe Poles took a bet on finding the right type of receiver. We can look back and say they barely got through 8 weeks of the season like that, but they did and Fields even started to come together a bit without it. But no rule they couldn't do both.

 

It's really funny though, because I started coming across a ton of Jags fans on Twitter complaining they didn't surround Lawrence with enough to give an honest evaluation. And I couldn't imagine blaming Fields supporting cast if the Bears just had a Jaguars offseason (retained a top paid tackle, added a top G, and 3 sizable FA weapons at WR/TE and their prior year 1st round RB back from an injury).

 

Meanwhile Bears have a flyer on a former first round possible bust and Claypool and I'm like, "Let Fields cook baby!". Meanwhile he has a 5th rounder at LT and Mustipher at C still, and their TE hardly is allowed to go run routes because he has to block.

[UK]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

[Bertz]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

 

Yeah I'm here too. Claypool means they don't have to force it if the board breaks poorly, but I think WR should still be the default choice in round 1.

[WrigleyField 22]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

They're both solid starters on the right offense. There's only a handful of true 1s and then everyone else is scheme and matchup dependent largely.

 

They should absolutely look to draft a WR like every year anyways, but the nice thing about Claypool is I think they can take best WR and not worry about Slot v X v Z too much.

[gflore34]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

 

If the pick is top 5, it's going to be one of Carter, Anderson or Murphy otherwise, if they manage to stay in the 10-15 range, I think Johnston might be in play.

[Tryptamine]

DL is my 1st round priority unless they trade down.

[minnesotacubsfan]

DL is my 1st round priority unless they trade down.

 

it was my 2nd, maybe 3rd prior to Claypool (WR, OL), now its #1. Get the best guy you can and the real need on the OL is the interior which can be gotten later

[WrigleyField 22]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

 

If the pick is top 5, it's going to be one of Carter, Anderson or Murphy otherwise, if they manage to stay in the 10-15 range, I think Johnston might be in play.

Yea if they manage to stay outside of the top 10, a lot more things end up in play. But unless they are top 5, they kind of just need to plug every hole in FA like they don't know what will be there in the draft, because they really won't know. So whoever they use their 1st on will just be a bonus at that point.

 

Major holes entering the offseason

 

WR3

RB2

C (or G depending how they feel about Patrick/Whitehair)

OT (with Borom and Jones competing for the other)

DE1 (they actually have okay depth, but need a major talent here)

DTx2 (only Jones under contract)

LBx2

 

Not every one of those is gonna be a $10M free agent, but if they can get solid vets at those 9 spots (which could include some resigning), the draft becomes wide open to just add star potential wherever.

[Tryptamine]

I'm not real comfortable with Herbert being the lead back. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, but him as an every down back is going to get Fields killed on passing downs.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm not real comfortable with Herbert being the lead back. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, but him as an every down back is going to get Fields killed on passing downs.

Yea, I mean if I thought he was a true workhorse back I'd say Ebner is enough and take RB2 off the list. Could be reupping Montgomery if a reasonable deal is there, but definitely something more than a minimum or day 3 pick behind him.

[gflore34]

I'm not real comfortable with Herbert being the lead back. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, but him as an every down back is going to get Fields killed on passing downs.

 

I think the Bears know that as well, that's why Montgomery was not traded. If Herbert could have managed some sort of competency at pass blocking there's no doubt, Montgomery would have been dealt.

[gflore34]

Is the NFL FA signing period before or after the draft, or is there no signing timeframe?

[WrigleyField 22]

Can't remember if I posted here or not, but I think Fournette/Conner low end and Mixon/Jones high end are a reasonable guess for what Montgomery might demand on the market. It is a strong FA class so I lean towrards him falling on the lower end, but I'd be surprised to see him drop below there. And as long as the guarantees were reasonable I think you can make the case to keep Montgomery at that level investment. So that would be like 21/22 over 3. Mixon/Jones were like 48/4, but are both basically year to year deals with relatively small guarantees.

 

If someone wants to go 4/50 with strong guarantees, then another decent RB should be available at the lower end of the FA market.

[WrigleyField 22]

Is the NFL FA signing period before or after the draft, or is there no signing timeframe?

For external FA it's sometime in mid March. Resigned guys can happen before that.

 

So most good FA are scooped up well before draft, but you'll usually see some older vets hanging around to make a decision on a good contender situation and teams have also started to want to push back signings for comp pick reasons once it gets to a certain point past the initial signing period.

Edited November 3, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[Tim]

It's too early for me to say which position will be priority in the draft between WR, DL & OL. It depends an awful lot on how things shake out in free agency.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It's too early for me to say which position will be priority in the draft between WR, DL & OL. It depends an awful lot on how things shake out in free agency.

 

 

i dont think so. Even if the Bears pick up Deron Payne, they are still weak on the DL. its now the teams biggest hole

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not real comfortable with Herbert being the lead back. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands, but him as an every down back is going to get Fields killed on passing downs.

If you improve the line and add receiver help then you aren’t so reliant on your RB blocking every play.

[raw]

Can't remember if I posted here or not, but I think Fournette/Conner low end and Mixon/Jones high end are a reasonable guess for what Montgomery might demand on the market. It is a strong FA class so I lean towrards him falling on the lower end, but I'd be surprised to see him drop below there. And as long as the guarantees were reasonable I think you can make the case to keep Montgomery at that level investment. So that would be like 21/22 over 3. Mixon/Jones were like 48/4, but are both basically year to year deals with relatively small guarantees.

 

If someone wants to go 4/50 with strong guarantees, then another decent RB should be available at the lower end of the FA market.

 

Yeah, I've always had him in the Mixon/Aaron Jones level. The both signed 4/48 with less than 15Mil guaranteed. I think on paper people would freak out over 12M/year for a RB, but the reality is, if you structure it right, he'd never see a 12M cap hit.

 

I'm leaning more toward them keeping him because he's a 2022 asset to Fields, moreso than him being thought of as a 2023 and beyond asset. Franchise tag for a RB that's not your leading rusher this year (with same number of carries) is not a good look. I think he's gone after the year.

[raw]

Am I wrong in still wanting the Bears to draft a WR in the 1st given that Claypool is a #2 and Mooney is a #3 on a good offense?

 

If the pick is top 5, it's going to be one of Carter, Anderson or Murphy otherwise, if they manage to stay in the 10-15 range, I think Johnston might be in play.

Yea if they manage to stay outside of the top 10, a lot more things end up in play. But unless they are top 5, they kind of just need to plug every hole in FA like they don't know what will be there in the draft, because they really won't know. So whoever they use their 1st on will just be a bonus at that point.

 

Major holes entering the offseason

 

WR3

RB2

C (or G depending how they feel about Patrick/Whitehair)

OT (with Borom and Jones competing for the other)

DE1 (they actually have okay depth, but need a major talent here)

DTx2 (only Jones under contract)

LBx2

 

Not every one of those is gonna be a $10M free agent, but if they can get solid vets at those 9 spots (which could include some resigning), the draft becomes wide open to just add star potential wherever.

 

Ideally:

WR3- Draft, first 3 rounds

 

RB2- Draft, end of day 2 at best, early day 3 more likely (really like this RB draft class)

 

C/G- I think Patrick is probably back. Write off this season as injured, give him a shot at C next year. I'd draft a guard top 3 rounds as well as bringing in a cheap (not as cheap as Schofield types) depth piece

 

T- Sign a guy, give him a lot of money. I like Elgton Jenkins. He could play G or T, and allow you to just draft the best guy you can, but if you get a true OT, it's fine. LT, RT, whatever. Get a good blocker.

 

DE- I'd probably use a top 90 pick here. Doesn't make a ton of sense to spend big money here. They just got rid of 2 big money DEs. I'd be fine with getting rid of Muhammad and spending 7-8M/year over his 5Mil or whatever, but I'd draft a guy here for sure. Fix DT, WR, and OL this offseason and I think you can go into 2023 with DE as a 1st round target, as it would hopefully be the biggest need at that point.

 

DT- spend BIG on a FA. Daron Payne obvious target. They were willing to spend big this year on a DT, no reason they shouldn't be willing to again. I actually kind of like Armon Watts, so I wouldn't mind bringing him back. I'd probably spend on a 2nd DT, a big body guy. I saw the Cowboys run D numbers w/ Jonathan Hankins on the field vs. off, and he's a huge difference maker in the run game. Perfect fit to replace Pennel, who is bad.

 

LB- Probably gotta draft a guy. I really like what I've seen from Sanborn and Weatherford, but that was preseason. Ideally, they'd be strong backups and special teamers. Morrow is fine. If not him, there are a million like him. Also, gonna have to draft a guy. If you find one you REALLY like, maybe take in top 3 rounds. If not, 4th is fine. Depends on what you do at DE. IF you keep Muhammad, gotta go DE early. IF you upgrade Muhammad, but don't splurge for a big money guy, then maybe move LB up. Intrigued here because Flus seems to really know LBs, so if he takes one earlier than I'd hope, I'll assume he's a stud.

[gflore34]

 

If the pick is top 5, it's going to be one of Carter, Anderson or Murphy otherwise, if they manage to stay in the 10-15 range, I think Johnston might be in play.

Yea if they manage to stay outside of the top 10, a lot more things end up in play. But unless they are top 5, they kind of just need to plug every hole in FA like they don't know what will be there in the draft, because they really won't know. So whoever they use their 1st on will just be a bonus at that point.

 

Major holes entering the offseason

 

WR3

RB2

C (or G depending how they feel about Patrick/Whitehair)

OT (with Borom and Jones competing for the other)

DE1 (they actually have okay depth, but need a major talent here)

DTx2 (only Jones under contract)

LBx2

 

Not every one of those is gonna be a $10M free agent, but if they can get solid vets at those 9 spots (which could include some resigning), the draft becomes wide open to just add star potential wherever.

 

Ideally:

WR3- Draft, first 3 rounds

 

RB2- Draft, end of day 2 at best, early day 3 more likely (really like this RB draft class)

 

C/G- I think Patrick is probably back. Write off this season as injured, give him a shot at C next year. I'd draft a guard top 3 rounds as well as bringing in a cheap (not as cheap as Schofield types) depth piece

 

T- Sign a guy, give him a lot of money. I like Elgton Jenkins. He could play G or T, and allow you to just draft the best guy you can, but if you get a true OT, it's fine. LT, RT, whatever. Get a good blocker.

 

DE- I'd probably use a top 90 pick here. Doesn't make a ton of sense to spend big money here. They just got rid of 2 big money DEs. I'd be fine with getting rid of Muhammad and spending 7-8M/year over his 5Mil or whatever, but I'd draft a guy here for sure. Fix DT, WR, and OL this offseason and I think you can go into 2023 with DE as a 1st round target, as it would hopefully be the biggest need at that point.

 

DT- spend BIG on a FA. Daron Payne obvious target. They were willing to spend big this year on a DT, no reason they shouldn't be willing to again. I actually kind of like Armon Watts, so I wouldn't mind bringing him back. I'd probably spend on a 2nd DT, a big body guy. I saw the Cowboys run D numbers w/ Jonathan Hankins on the field vs. off, and he's a huge difference maker in the run game. Perfect fit to replace Pennel, who is bad.

 

LB- Probably gotta draft a guy. I really like what I've seen from Sanborn and Weatherford, but that was preseason. Ideally, they'd be strong backups and special teamers. Morrow is fine. If not him, there are a million like him. Also, gonna have to draft a guy. If you find one you REALLY like, maybe take in top 3 rounds. If not, 4th is fine. Depends on what you do at DE. IF you keep Muhammad, gotta go DE early. IF you upgrade Muhammad, but don't splurge for a big money guy, then maybe move LB up. Intrigued here because Flus seems to really know LBs, so if he takes one earlier than I'd hope, I'll assume he's a stud.

 

Many of us are writing similar approaches to Bears' offseason - OL, DL - FA and draft, WR, RB, LB - draft, appears logical, it's obvious, makes sense. I have to think Poles' approach is going in line with many of our thoughts. Got off to rocky start and it's still early but, it's starting to hint that the Bears may have hit on the Poles hire and by extension Eberflus, etc.

[WrigleyField 22]

Yall thinking too small. Those 9 needs I listed are all FA needs, and the top 6 will all be large deals.

 

Allocate like 60-70M AAV for the top 6 spots and then another 10-12 for the next 3. Another dozen minimum or near minimum salary depth resignings and signings after that. Even at that level you'll need at least 2 extensions (Mooney, JJ, Claypool?) to be at the point you'll reach your cash minimum. And they could go bigger accross the board there. But that gets them to their "top 53" pre draft with no absolutely glaring holes.

 

After those 9 primary needs, the draft will supplement or double up those. Only your first rounder is gonna be expected to definitely be a day 1 starter and there will still be plenty of bumpable spots at premium positions.

[WrigleyField 22]

Did I post this here yet?

 

[Soul]

Schefter has an article this morning reporting the Bears beat out the Packers for Claypool, even though the Packers offered more picks.

 

Makes the acquisition a little extra special for me.

[mul21]

Schefter has an article this morning reporting the Bears beat out the Packers for Claypool, even though the Packers offered more picks.

 

Makes the acquisition a little extra special for me.

 

It doesn't really say that. It says the Steelers thought the Bears suck more than the Packers and their 2nd rounder would be a higher pick so they took that deal. May have been a mistake based on what we've seen the last few weeks.