2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List

[Cubswin11]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

 

He could be a difference-maker this year. Best case he destroys AAA for two months. Bellinger holds his own at the plate and brings back a good MLB-ready pitching prospect in July.

If Bellinger is playing well enough to bring anything back and Davis is proving he’s ready to come up, we’re probably in WC contention at least and the roster/lineup can fit both in.

[PackLandVA]

If the Cubs can fix Bellinger and/or a change of scenery turns his career around, why can he be in the long-term plans for the Cubs? He's not yet 28 years old.

[CubinNY]

If the Cubs can fix Bellinger and/or a change of scenery turns his career around, why can he be in the long-term plans for the Cubs? He's not yet 28 years old.

He's not likely to be near the player he once was before the injury. He's only signed for one year. I suppose if someone wants to give the Cubs a haul for Davis, that would be great too, but if I had to choose, I'd choose Davis. With PCA coming up in a few years, Davis can slide over to LF/RF.

[Tim]

Best case scenario is Bellinger back at MVP levels.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP Cubs Top 20 is…interesting:

 

1. PCA

2. Caissie

3. Mervis

4. Wesneski

5. Davis

6. Alcántara

7. Horton

8. Wicks

9. Triantos

10. Brown

11. Canario

12. Palencia

13. Amaya

14. C. Hernández

15. Ferris

16. Herz

17. Devers

18. Ballesteros

19. Assad

20. L. Little

[Bertz]

If the Cubs can fix Bellinger and/or a change of scenery turns his career around, why can he be in the long-term plans for the Cubs? He's not yet 28 years old.

 

Yeah, if Bellinger really remembers how to hit (maybe not at MVP levels but at least at his otherwise pre-injury form), you throw Brandon Nimmo money at him and he's the long term LF. It's also pretty hard to see the team selling off this summer if CF is that productive.

 

If Bellinger's just fine offensively, you QO him and bid him adieu. The org's depth at CF means we shouldn't spend money on a CF who's deriving his value purely from defense.

[Bertz]

BP Cubs Top 20 is…interesting:

 

1. PCA

2. Caissie

3. Mervis

4. Wesneski

5. Davis

6. Alcántara

7. Horton

8. Wicks

9. Triantos

10. Brown

11. Canario

12. Palencia

13. Amaya

14. C. Hernández

15. Ferris

16. Herz

17. Devers

18. Ballesteros

19. Assad

20. L. Little

 

I can justify almost any of these weird choices in a silo. I can't justify all of these weird choices together though?

It's like at different points they completely change the calculus in weighting ARL, floor, and ceiling.

[muntjack]

Seems like they value proximity to the majors more than most, which I can get behind. Still a bit odd, though.

[Bertz]

 

PCA at 36

Jordan Wicks at 51

Kevin Alcantara at 77

 

Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA has Wicks as a #5 starter. Kiley has him as the 51st best prospect in baseball, with a writeup that sounds like a 2/3 starter. Feels like a microcosm of ranking Cubs prospects after PCA.

 

(I’m admittedly down on BA after all of their brain drain.)

[Tryptamine]

BA has Wicks as a #5 starter. Kiley has him as the 51st best prospect in baseball, with a writeup that sounds like a 2/3 starter. Feels like a microcosm of ranking Cubs prospects after PCA.

 

(I’m admittedly down on BA after all of their brain drain.)

 

Sadly BA has tanked along with a lot of other groups. BP is basically dead and FG is still my favorite but not where it was a few years ago. It would honestly be a great time for an upstart group to come up and make a name for themselves.

[Named After Maddux]

BA has Wicks as a #5 starter. Kiley has him as the 51st best prospect in baseball, with a writeup that sounds like a 2/3 starter. Feels like a microcosm of ranking Cubs prospects after PCA.

 

(I’m admittedly down on BA after all of their brain drain.)

 

Sadly BA has tanked along with a lot of other groups. BP is basically dead and FG is still my favorite but not where it was a few years ago. It would honestly be a great time for an upstart group to come up and make a name for themselves.

 

Prospects Live is that group, but they’ve been so impressive that their writers keep getting hired by MLB clubs. It makes for a challenging setup. I’d still take their analysis over BA right now (unless it’s Geoff Pontes writing for BA).

[UMFan83]

 

PCA at 36

Jordan Wicks at 51

Kevin Alcantara at 77

 

Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list

 

Seems crazy to not even have Davis in the top 7 Cubs prospects

[Bertz]

 

PCA at 36

Jordan Wicks at 51

Kevin Alcantara at 77

 

Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list

 

Seems crazy to not even have Davis in the top 7 Cubs prospects

 

Yeah I think it's an overcorrection, especially when he still has Royce Lewis on his list. Like the injuries crested risk certainly, but he's also a guy you could probably have open the year in MLB if you needed to. Is the risk with Davis really any higher than the hitters in A Ball? I'd say no.

[mul21]

Law with the Cubs at 10:

 

10. Chicago Cubs

To be honest, I thought they’d end up higher on the list, but perhaps I was a year early with those expectations, which were mostly built around the group of position players in A-ball and the Arizona Complex League this year, only one of whom, Kevin Alcantara, made my top 100. Most of the others are still interesting prospects with upside remaining but didn’t progress to the point where it would have pushed this system into the top 5. There’s less pitching here, although they bet big on upside with their first pick in 2022, Cade Horton.

 

Cards and Brewers at 8 and 9 respectively, stupid Dodgers ranked first.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Irrelevant Dude]

stupid Dodgers ranked first.

That is depressing.

[Irrelevant Dude]

 

PCA at 36

Jordan Wicks at 51

Kevin Alcantara at 77

 

Caissie, Triantos, Wesneski, and Hernandez listed as 50 FVs, meaning they're top 100 caliber even if they're a smidge behind the actual guys on the ordinal list

 

Seems crazy to not even have Davis in the top 7 Cubs prospects

 

Yeah I think it's an overcorrection, especially when he still has Royce Lewis on his list. Like the injuries crested risk certainly, but he's also a guy you could probably have open the year in MLB if you needed to. Is the risk with Davis really any higher than the hitters in A Ball? I'd say no.

I have to believe his (lack of) ranking can be attributed mostly to "we have no idea how to rate him until he proves he is healthy." He is a huge question mark right now, but I would imagine he will quickly jump back up on the lists if/when he does show that he is healthy and his injuries don't appear to be a long-term concern.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law with the Cubs at 10:

 

10. Chicago Cubs

To be honest, I thought they’d end up higher on the list, but perhaps I was a year early with those expectations, which were mostly built around the group of position players in A-ball and the Arizona Complex League this year, only one of whom, Kevin Alcantara, made my top 100. Most of the others are still interesting prospects with upside remaining but didn’t progress to the point where it would have pushed this system into the top 5. There’s less pitching here, although they bet big on upside with their first pick in 2022, Cade Horton.

 

Cards and Brewers at 8 and 9 respectively, stupid Dodgers ranked first.

 

Im really surprised the Orioles didn’t sweep all major publications’ farm rankings for the unanimous best farm.

[mul21]

Law with the Cubs at 10:

 

10. Chicago Cubs

To be honest, I thought they’d end up higher on the list, but perhaps I was a year early with those expectations, which were mostly built around the group of position players in A-ball and the Arizona Complex League this year, only one of whom, Kevin Alcantara, made my top 100. Most of the others are still interesting prospects with upside remaining but didn’t progress to the point where it would have pushed this system into the top 5. There’s less pitching here, although they bet big on upside with their first pick in 2022, Cade Horton.

 

Cards and Brewers at 8 and 9 respectively, stupid Dodgers ranked first.

 

Im really surprised the Orioles didn’t sweep all major publications’ farm rankings for the unanimous best farm.

 

Cleveland 2 and Orioles 3.

[Tryptamine]

Meh on the Dodgers #1. For this very brief window of time, end of offseason/beginning preseason 2023, give me the Yankees or even Rangers as #1. I’m on board for Bobby Miller and Diego Cartaya being excellent, more like than love players like Busch, Pages, Freeland, Rushing, Bruns, Frasso etc…They just seem less athletic on the farm than yesteryear even with Pages and Frasso :dontknow:

 

I just noticed Kiley McDaniel dropped the Verlander comp on Andrew Painter too. Caaannot wait for the algorithm/s to approve the Phillies calling up this guy, might have been last year in a different time or context

 

I'm somewhat high on Busch, not that I think he's a star, but I think he's a solid bet to be a 110 to 115 wRC+ guy. If he sticks at 2B with non horrendous defense there's some all-star upside, but I think that's pretty unlikely. If he ends up in LF he's probably a solid everyday regular.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Meh on the Dodgers #1. For this very brief window of time, end of offseason/beginning preseason 2023, give me the Yankees or even Rangers as #1. I’m on board for Bobby Miller and Diego Cartaya being excellent, more like than love players like Busch, Pages, Freeland, Rushing, Bruns, Frasso etc…They just seem less athletic on the farm than yesteryear even with Pages and Frasso :dontknow:

 

I just noticed Kiley McDaniel dropped the Verlander comp on Andrew Painter too. Caaannot wait for the algorithm/s to approve the Phillies calling up this guy, might have been last year in a different time or context

 

I'm somewhat high on Busch, not that I think he's a star, but I think he's a solid bet to be a 110 to 115 wRC+ guy. If he sticks at 2B with non horrendous defense there's some all-star upside, but I think that's pretty unlikely. If he ends up in LF he's probably a solid everyday regular.

 

The shift ban is going to be rough for Busch. I think they’re going to have to hope he can handle LF.

[SpongeWorthy]

Law with the Cubs at 10:

 

10. Chicago Cubs

To be honest, I thought they’d end up higher on the list, but perhaps I was a year early with those expectations, which were mostly built around the group of position players in A-ball and the Arizona Complex League this year, only one of whom, Kevin Alcantara, made my top 100. Most of the others are still interesting prospects with upside remaining but didn’t progress to the point where it would have pushed this system into the top 5. There’s less pitching here, although they bet big on upside with their first pick in 2022, Cade Horton.

 

Cards and Brewers at 8 and 9 respectively, stupid Dodgers ranked first.

mediocre big league roster and the 4th best system in the division

 

sick rebuild

[Bertz]

One other positive aspect of the farm that isn't captured in a ranking like this (and shouldn't be) is that there should be a steady stream of talent over the next several years. Like these are the rough ETAs for prospects of major substance who've had enough performance for us to peg:

 

1H 2023 - Davis, Mervis, Wesneski, Kilian

2H 2023 - Amaya, Canario, Wicks, Brown

1H 2024 - PCA, Caissie, Palencia, Hodge, Devers

2H 2024 - Made, Howard, Horton

2025 - Alcantara, Triantos

 

And they're backed up by a small army of pitchers who are or will likely be relievers (some of whom like Herz and K. Franklin potential impact types) as well as some fun potential bench options.

 

It really is going to be interesting to contrast with the core last time around. Not having to piss away money or trade chips on so many spots on the bottom half of the roster will help quite a bit, but not getting an annual 6+ WAR superstar season like we got from either Bryant and Baez did through the entire last run is obviously a huge negative.

[pitchcs]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

 

 

Agreed. It's been a long ass offseason but I've definitely come to appreciate how well rounded Davis the prospect's game is. He's both the skilled MiLB player in the org and the best overall athlete. All the hitters are chasing his patient, flyball oriented approach with all fields power and the ability to hit for average while maintaining an up the middle profile on defense

 

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Props to the list with Little in the top 20. For a giant, healthy lefty with power stuff and approach, his excellent 2022 was very quiet. Back of the top 20 feels right since we're still talking about feasting on mostly A ball hitters at 21 at just under 3 innings a pop. He's not crazy far off from Palencia entering 2022, could have meaningful trade Value this summer

 

Little had an excellent 2022?