2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Aram Leighton:

 

https://twitter.com/justbbmedia/status/1575184612229525504?s=46&t=cbO7-RE-0cWRFZGud8uvSQ

 

22. Pete Crow-Armstrong

54. Brennen Davis

58. Owen Caissie

82. Kevin Alcántara

84. Matt Mervis

[sneakypower]

68. Owen Caissie

[muntjack]

It's funny those are the catchers you chose because I think Endy Rodriguez (#40) is the best of them all. He's probably my favorite prospect in baseball.

[CubinNY]

Where does Darius Hill slot in here? He had an outstanding season.

 

Edit: For the Cubs, not all prospects.

[minnesotacubsfan]

where was Canario?

[craig]

..

9. SS Pedro Ramirez | 19 | A | 2026..... Ramirez is also a fairly shift-proof switch-hitter: another trait that might become less valuable in the new paradigm of a shift-governed 2023. .....

 

I’d like to see more Ramirez in top 10s after last year’s rookie ball bonanza ....

 

I don't agree with or understand razzball's thought that shift-rules might make Ramirez less valuable.

 

*Shift rules are designed to allow more in-play contact to go for hits. As a contact guy, this should work for him, not against him.

 

*Shift rules are especially designed to help lefty hitters. As a guy who hits lefty most of the time, this should also work to his advantage.

 

Few contact-hitting right-handers get shifted much anyway. But when he bats LH (most of the time), the new rules should help him just as with any other LH hitter, and more so than those who make less contact.

[JeffH]

I read it more like that trait is going to become less valuable relative to other hitters going forward in a no-shift era. Other hitters are affected greatly by the shift, him not so much. With no shift, his results won't change as much as those of others.

 

Seemed like a strange take in evaluating a player on his own.

[Bertz]

 

Greg and Co. did their collective top prospects list. Good stuff. I think the thing that stands out to me is very aggressive rankings on several pitchers. Daniel Palencia and Porter Hodge are both about 5 spots higher than I expect to see generally, and Riley Thompson is probably more like 10.

 

With those guys being pretty high it pushes others lower. I think Kevin Made gets a little bit of short shrift here. I'd also still take Kilian over several pitchers ahead of him, and Amaya probably 5ish spots higher as well.

 

Those are all nitpicks though, really good stuff and I think it makes a great primer before the national outlets start putting stuff out.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Aram Leighton:

 

https://twitter.com/justbbmedia/status/1575184612229525504?s=46&t=cbO7-RE-0cWRFZGud8uvSQ

 

22. Pete Crow-Armstrong

54. Brennen Davis

58. Owen Caissie

82. Kevin Alcántara

84. Matt Mervis

 

Aram Leighton’s Cubs top 10:

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does anyone else sometimes casually forget the #7 overall pick from this summer being among our top prospects, because I definitely lack object permanence with these pitching prospects before they debut.

[Tim]

Aram Leighton:

I feel like this either doesn't punish Davis enough for his injury status or punishes Canario too much. Or includes too much recency bias for Mervis or not enough for Canario.

 

I guess what I'm suggesting is a lack of consistency when it comes to Canario's ranking.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Does anyone else sometimes casually forget the #7 overall pick from this summer being among our top prospects, because I definitely lack object permanence with these pitching prospects before they debut.

 

Honestly I look at the list and get a little disappointed that Brooks Lee could have been somewhere on it too

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

1. PCA

2. Davis

3. Alcántara

4. Mervis

5. Horton

6. Brown

7. Hernández

8. Wesneski

9. Amaya

10. Kilian

 

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

[Tim]

 

1. PCA

2. Davis

3. Alcántara

4. Mervis

5. Horton

6. Brown

7. Hernández

8. Wesneski

9. Amaya

10. Kilian

 

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

I have...disagreements with that list

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

1. PCA

2. Davis

3. Alcántara

4. Mervis

5. Horton

6. Brown

7. Hernández

8. Wesneski

9. Amaya

10. Kilian

 

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

I have...disagreements with that list

 

I guess we should be happy BA didn’t rank Márquez in the top 10.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Toolsy McScoutface is a big fan of Mervis, you say

[sneakypower]

Does anyone else sometimes casually forget the #7 overall pick from this summer being among our top prospects, because I definitely lack object permanence with these pitching prospects before they debut.

yeah i don't consider a 5 ERA college guy a prospect of much note either

[pitchcs]

How could you possibly argue for Amaya in the T10?

[Bertz]

I think generally folks are too down on Amaya right now, but hard to justify him in front of Canario. Like either you weight injuries really heavily or you don't. Also you probably ought to punish Davis more if you do?

 

Similar on the pitching side, I get not abandoning Kilian, but feels like most arguments you could make for Top 10ing Kilian would say you probably need to stay high (higher?) on Wicks?

[Post Count Padder]

Happy that Mervis is getting his due and people aren't forgetting Amaya but I'd have Canario and Wicks in there ahead of them. And that seems high for Ben Brown.

[craig]

...

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

 

Will be curious to see how Wicks progresses. I can maybe kinda understand why some evaluators might not love him super much? Depending on their scouting info and perceptions:

 

1. Turns 24 this season, so he's not young. Age isn't exciting.

2. 3.84 ERA with HR-galore this season. Excellent K/BB, but the high HR's may be yellow flags?

3. Fastball is decent but nothing wow. Solid for a LHP, but maybe nothing electric in itself to make scouts buzz?

4. Change was supposed to be his signature win-pitch. I thought I'd seen report that analytics on his change this season were nothing special?

 

Past is past, the future is unwritten, so who knows. He revised his repertoire dramatically since the draft; I'm optimistic that the best is yet to come. Cubs farm has done well with velocity improvements; maybe at his age he'll still add a little velo? Maybe with revisions to his breaking stuff last year, greater consistency and confidence in those pitches comes this season? And maybe his change will look more special this year than last?

 

But I can maybe understand how some scouts just haven't seen enough pizzazz yet to get super buzzed about him. But he can change that this season, if his performance and stuff warrant it.

[craig]

I can see this as a pre-pandemic case against Wicks in the top 10, Stats were more straightforward back then, but even then it becomes what exactly are these higher ranked guys doing better? ...

 

I can’t imagine there are even ten more interesting profiles in the system: first round pick LHP (consensus top lefty) up to 97 with command of multiple fastballs, 3 average or better offspeeds with no (major) injury concern…and that’s before you run into him reaching AA and running a 30% K rate throughout in his first full season with a new mix of pitches

 

BA's notes kinda matched what I'd anticipated, that scouts don't love guys with average stuff, and that his change didn't look as special as it had been previously perceived to be. From their notes. As we all know, BA's stuff is all second-hand from scouts that they talked to. From their writeups on other Cub prospects, it was clear that they had sources within the organization as well as scouts outside it.

 

"Wicks could be a decent No. 5 starter. It’s mostly all average stuff except for the changeup (which has been more 55-60 in pro ball than the 70 it was in college) and he shows a good feel for pitching. At the same time, there’s also a real concern he’s going to start getting hit harder once he starts facing better competition, which we saw happen in his brief Double-A stint. He's a lefty with a deep pitch mix and a good feel for pitching, all of which are good traits. It’s just more in line with a No. 5 starter, which is something every team needs and shouldn't be discounted or dismissed."

[Bertz]

The spin/movement data on Wicks is pretty exemplary based on Lance Brozdowski's absurdly well researched mid season list. I think more than anything calling Wicks a fifth starter is laziness from BA after seeing 92 in the fastball velo column.

 

I also think worrying about HR/FB rates is a little ill advised. We know in MLB they're mostly luck. We can't assume they are in MiLB becausethe talent distribution is wider, but it should still generally be our default assumption. For Wicks specifically, it was only an issue at Tenn. I think the clear explanation is that the bump to AA is really hard, and he paid the price on a couple pitches he was used to getting away with. But like he gave up 5 homeruns in a period where we'd expect him to give up 3, that's noise until we get a lot more data.

 

I think the things I'd actually hold against Wicks at this point are:

 

1. That forearm injury he had in August is usually shortly followed by a TJ surgery

2. As mentioned the reports on the change in pro ball have been more good than great

3. He didn't really get much if a velo bump last year. And given that the Cubs have shown they know how to coax that out guys, and that they often like to do veli before working on a guy's spin/movement profile, I'm more than a bit worried it's never coming

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Pipeline moved the Cubs system up to 10 in their second half of the 2022 season re-rankings, up from 18 last preseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Alcantara’s maxed EVs top 110, the MLB average. I’m a believer that he’s a better offensive prospect than PCA with similar defensive ability in CF…They say he’ll outgrow CF, which seems more height than frame based (“built like a basketball player”)

 

Similar is doing some really heavy lifting here, what is that based on?