2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Cubs are 11:

 

11. Chicago Cubs ($220.5 million)

 

Last year: 19th, 182.5 million

 

Top-100 prospects: 3

 

The Cubs seem to have turned the corner in their rebuild and are now left with the hard part: bridging the gap with the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Chicago has improved the big league team this winter and the farm system has notably improved over the last year.

 

Lefty Jordan Wicks and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong both took big steps forward and the Cubs added a couple of prospects who now rank in the top 10 of their system in first-round pick Cade Horton and Hayden Wesneski, who came over from the Yankees at the deadline. The entire top tier of the system either held serve or improved, which was crucial with so many young high-variance hitters in the low minors.

 

I don't think the Cubs will return to the playoffs in 2023, but I see a path to the farm system helping create a postseason contender in 2024.

 

1. Baltimore

2. Arizona

3. Cleveland

4. NY Yankees

5. Cincinnati (who Keith Law had as the worst in the NLC)

6. LA Dodgers

7. Tampa

8. Texas

9. Pittsburgh

10. St. Louis

11. Cubs

15. Milwaukee

 

Kiley also ranked the Cubs’ farm 4th in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV), behind the Dodgers, Rangers and Orioles.

[Bertz]

Bertz, thanks for that input. I just wonder of those 52 guys you pulled, how many of them were pure DH-only prospects at that age? Certainly Ozzie Albies and Wander Franco were not.

 

Ballesteros is really unique in being so quickly and obviously DH-only. I can't imagine there are many comps for 18-year-old DH-only prospects getting significant prospect love. Obviously if he hits like David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez, he can DH like Ortiz or field badly likely Ramirez. But that remains a somewhat unlikely hitting-quality outcome.

 

Yeah I think that's a fair distinction on the position/athleticism front. That said on the flip side if you get more picky on the offensive front it swings the pendulum back again. Set a BB% floor of 8 or 9% and a K% cap of ~25% and you filter out a lot of the riff-raff who flamed out in my initial sample.

 

I think generally, even though it's top of mind people still don't consider ARL enough for hitters. And on the flipside there's way too much mind paid to it for pitchers.

[Cubswin11]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updating-the-international-player-rankings/

 

Owen Caissie a 45…Mervis 40+…

 

I’m liking this international relievers coming over…Livan Moinelo and Yuki Matsui can be new Theo’s Alvarado and Soto or something

Seeing Mervis is playing for Israel….. him and Stroman are probably going to have some interesting conversations and interactions in ST after Stroman’s nonsense

[Bertz]

 

PCA at 14 (!!!)

Alcantara at 73

Wesneski at 88

Hernandez at 100

 

We already knew from other notes that Caissie and Davis dropped, but not a surprise looks like Triantos did as well.

[Tim]

If anyone has links to Mets fans tears over this ranking for PCA, that would be awesome to see.

[Bertz]

 

I don't know his exact methodology (Wicks feels way too high for being on only one list?), but still an interesting look at an aggregate of the various rankings.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

PCA goes from 50 FV to 60(he's the last 60 on the list, which runs from 3 to 14), Wesneski goes from 40+ to 50, and the other two stay steady. Davis was a 55 and everyone on the list(which goes to 112) is at least a 50, so he's dropping at least one grade if not all the way to 45+ or 45. Caissie and Triantos were both 50s midseason so the same applies to them.

[Bertz]

PCA goes from 50 FV to 60(he's the last 60 on the list, which runs from 3 to 14), Wesneski goes from 40+ to 50, and the other two stay steady. Davis was a 55 and everyone on the list(which goes to 112) is at least a 50, so he's dropping at least one grade if not all the way to 45+ or 45. Caissie and Triantos were both 50s midseason so the same applies to them.

 

Eric mentioned a little while back that he had Davis as a 45+. That's basically where he parks guys who are a 50 or more on talent but have really elevated risk in their profiles.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nice to finally have someone drop Wesneski in the top 100.

 

Was really hoping 2 of BA, ESPN or Pipeline would have Mervis or Wesneski in their top 100 so the Cubs would be eligible for a draft pick if either won ROY.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

17. PCA

56. Alcántara

71. Horton

89. Davis

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

1. PCA

2. Davis

3. Alcántara

4. Mervis

5. Horton

6. Brown

7. Hernández

8. Wesneski

9. Amaya

10. Kilian

 

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

 

BA released the remainder of their top 30 today:

 

11. Wicks

12. Canario

13. Caissie

14. Palencia

15. Ferris

16. Ballesteros

17. Herz

18. Triantos

19. Piñango

20. Assad

21. Made

22. Hodge

23. Hill

24. Strumpf

25. Aliendo

26. Devers

27. P. Ramírez

28. Sanders

29. Franklin

30. R. Thompson

[Bertz]

 

1. PCA

2. Davis

3. Alcántara

4. Mervis

5. Horton

6. Brown

7. Hernández

8. Wesneski

9. Amaya

10. Kilian

 

No Jordan Wicks in the top 10

 

BA released the remainder of their top 30 today:

 

11. Wicks

12. Canario

13. Caissie

14. Palencia

15. Ferris

16. Ballesteros

17. Herz

18. Triantos

19. Piñango

20. Assad

21. Made

22. Hodge

23. Hill

24. Strumpf

25. Aliendo

26. Devers

27. P. Ramírez

28. Sanders

29. Franklin

30. R. Thompson

 

[Rex Buckingham]

 

Contreras was an infielder who moved to C, right? Proof of concept...

[Bertz]

 

Depending on your perspective either a very fun or very depressing surprise at #32

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

[CubinNY]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

 

Instructs are in fall after the season. I’m guessing you mean Extended Spring Training. I’m pretty sure he’ll stay in Mesa for Ex ST when the minor league teams break in April and will play in the ACL when their season starts in the summer. Between being a two-way player and having an arm injury his senior year, he’s pretty inexperienced, even compared to the normal prep prospect.

[Bertz]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

 

I wouldn't be surprised with a little bit of time at Myrtle late in the year after that last big wave of promotions. A la Koen Moreno last year.

 

Really the type of guy who makes you miss having short season leagues.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

 

I wouldn't be surprised with a little bit of time at Myrtle late in the year after that last big wave of promotions. A la Koen Moreno last year.

 

Really the type of guy who makes you miss having short season leagues.

 

Absolutely.

[CubinNY]

Pipeline top 30 is out:

 

 

I’d say it’s the least *different* one, especially at the top.

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

 

Instructs are in fall after the season. I’m guessing you mean Extended Spring Training. I’m pretty sure he’ll stay in Mesa for Ex ST when the minor league teams break in April and will play in the ACL when their season starts in the summer. Between being a two-way player and having an arm injury his senior year, he’s pretty inexperienced, even compared to the normal prep prospect.

Thanks, I can never keep the development leagues straight.

 

How long do they let him stick with being a two-way player?

[PackLandVA]

Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year?

 

Instructs are in fall after the season. I’m guessing you mean Extended Spring Training. I’m pretty sure he’ll stay in Mesa for Ex ST when the minor league teams break in April and will play in the ACL when their season starts in the summer. Between being a two-way player and having an arm injury his senior year, he’s pretty inexperienced, even compared to the normal prep prospect.

Thanks, I can never keep the development leagues straight.

 

How long do they let him stick with being a two-way player?

 

I’d imagine until it’s determined (if) which has a significantly higher ceiling.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Instructs are in fall after the season. I’m guessing you mean Extended Spring Training. I’m pretty sure he’ll stay in Mesa for Ex ST when the minor league teams break in April and will play in the ACL when their season starts in the summer. Between being a two-way player and having an arm injury his senior year, he’s pretty inexperienced, even compared to the normal prep prospect.

Thanks, I can never keep the development leagues straight.

 

How long do they let him stick with being a two-way player?

 

I’d imagine until it’s determined (if) which has a significantly higher ceiling.

 

Or if health precludes him from pitching.

 

Masyn Winn was drafted as a 2-way player in 2020 with somewhat similar hype and has only thrown 1 professional inning (in 2021). He’s already settled in as a position player.

 

I’ve been under the impression Mulé is better/has a higher ceiling as a pitcher than hitter. I think it’s easier to quit pitching if you’re a better hitter (due to the health risks) than the opposite so if he truly is a better pitcher, I think he’ll be a 2-way player longer than Winn was.

[craig]

I'd go all in on pitching for Mule. It would be fun if the Cubs picked up the next Ohtani with a 4th round pick, but given that Ohtani and Ruth are about the only good 2-way guys in baseball history, I think the odds aren't great for Mule. It's so hard to be successful in either role; I'd think he's best served to just go all-in on pitching. Whatever is best for pitching in terms of body-development, core optimization, film study etc, do what's best for pitching.

 

If he's doing everything he can pitching-development-wise, and has some spare time to take BP or DH, that's fine. But don't confuse the focus, IMO.

[craig]

...Nice to see one of the pubs acknowledge Howard's improved EVs (big deal!) to go with a big jump in Ks. I'd admit the injury clouds the impact but also these metrics don't require massive sample sizes *and* both translate well in the low minors...which is to say that if he goes back to South Bend the expectation should be that he hits but really feel free to keep pushing

 

Tom, for Howard's EV that you've appreciated a lot, where is that EV data taken from?

-From the 63 non-K A-ball AB's last season?

-He had a really high GO/AO ratio, is the strong EV data inclusive of his hard groundouts?

-Or only taken from non-grounders?

-Or is the data strictly from his 3 XBH?

-Or is that data actually not so much from the small sample of contact from his 23 games, but is more taken from BP in camp, off pitching machines and Rachel Folden etc?

 

I'm not meaning to sound snarky, I'm just trying to understand what the sample is from which you have the EV data. It may well be that giving guys a chance to hit off a pitching machine or Rachel Folden, maybe that's a purer measurement of their inherent power, without the data getting confused by the varying capacity to make solid contact.