2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List

[CaliforniaRaisin]

lol

We shall see. I said it then and I stand by it now.

 

If no one from the 2022 class makes it to the bigs, it will outperform the 2005 MLB Draft class that had a -0.1 bWAR.

 

The 2010 class had a -0.8 bWAR! (admittedly did have a whopping +0.5 fWAR).

[Bertz]

The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.

[CubinNY]

We shall see. I said it then and I stand by it now.

 

If no one from the 2022 class makes it to the bigs, it will outperform the 2005 MLB Draft class that had a -0.1 bWAR.

 

The 2010 class had a -0.8 bWAR! (admittedly did have a whopping +0.5 fWAR).

 

The difference is that year the Cubs were drafting 20th.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

If no one from the 2022 class makes it to the bigs, it will outperform the 2005 MLB Draft class that had a -0.1 bWAR.

 

The 2010 class had a -0.8 bWAR! (admittedly did have a whopping +0.5 fWAR).

 

The difference is that year the Cubs were drafting 20th.

 

16th.

 

The real difference is they took the biggest first round reach in the 21st Century that year, with no major bonus outlays elsewhere like in 2014 or 2022.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Of course, then the Cubs took Horton who just had TJS. Sigh.

 

Last year's draft is going to be among the worst in Cubs history. It's really inexplicable.

Seems a bit premature to declare final judgment on a draft that's a little over six months old. While the top of the draft doesn't look great, it takes over half a decade to truly see how the middle and back of the draft class performs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The only player from the 2022 draft to play pro games for more than a week was McGeary, the 15th rounder who didn't get bonus pool money. Only 1 of the 9 guys to get bonus pool money played pro games at all(Paciolla). Haven't we followed the draft and minor leagues long enough to know that sweeping declarative statements about draftees/draft classes is only good for looking foolish later

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.

 

The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info.

 

Once the Guardians (with their draft models’ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media.

 

I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret.

[Bertz]

The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.

 

The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info.

 

Once the Guardians (with their draft models‘ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media.

 

I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret.

 

Yeah I mostly became content with the decision once we saw the data on Horton's pitches. Just absolutely monster stuff, though there is some real reliever risk.

 

I would have taken Lee, but as you said the knee stuff should give you some very real pause. Collier its hard to question too much. He fell another 10 spots so it's not like the Cubs were on an island in not thinking the juice is worth the squeeze. Neto I'm not too worried about either. The org right now has so much quantity I'm okay potentially foregoing some value by way of his high floor and taking a bigger swing at a guy more likely to be a frontline talent.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me the risk with Lee is that he becomes a tweener that dramatically lowers his ceiling. If he's not an MLB SS(we'll have to wait and see, but at a minimum 5 errors in 25 games is a bad start), then as a 3B/2B guy he really needs to hit for some pop, and that's an open question. Even though he was panned as a late riser, I agree Neto might be the one that is the real regret if he's a bona fide MLB SS defensively. Possibly Collier too, but HS prospects are a bit more blank canvas.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Matt Mervis was amongst the top 15 who just missed BA’s Top 100 list:

 

Matt Mervis, 1B, Cubs: After a standout 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, Mervis earned serious consideration for the Top 100 but ultimately fell just short. A nondrafted free agent in 2020, Mervis rebounded from a poor full-season debut in 2021 to hit the third-most home runs in the minor leagues in 2022. Across three levels Mervis hit 36 home runs while slashing .309/.379/.605 over 137 games. He pairs above-average bat-to-ball skills (76% contact rate) with plus power (105 mph 90th percentile) and has the profile of an everyday power-hitting first baseman.

 

These Cubs prospects each made at least one of BA’s top 150 prospects:

 

Cubs: Ben Brown, RHP, Cristian Hernandez, SS, Cade Horton, RHP, Matt Mervis, 1B, Hayden Wesneski, RHP.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79861/2023-prospects-the-top-101/

 

28. PCA

80. Caissie

88. Mervis

 

No Davis or Alcántara.

[CubinNY]

Horton - TJS

Frisch - TJS

Ferris - was compared to Tim Lincicum in his delivery. Clearly, they can work on his mechanics, but still.

Birdsell - Rotator cuff, TJS in high school

Mule - Great heater, but wants to be Ohtani

 

They definitely laid all their chips on the pitching development team and that is the strength of the organization, so maybe it will work out. The chances are not good.

[Bertz]

Horton - TJS

Frisch - TJS

Ferris - was compared to Tim Lincicum in his delivery. Clearly, they can work on his mechanics, but still.

Birdsell - Rotator cuff, TJS in high school

Mule - Great heater, but wants to be Ohtani

 

They definitely laid all their chips on the pitching development team and that is the strength of the organization, so maybe it will work out. The chances are not good.

 

It's 2023, damn near every pitcher of any consequence has had or will eventually have TJ. It's a natural consequence of the explosion in velocity the last 10 years. Like pitchers are still inherently dangerous so you're not wrong about your broader point of the team putting all their resources into a more dangerous demo, but e.g. Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.

[Cubswin11]

“Cubs don’t draft and develop pitchers”

 

*Cubs start proving they can develop pitchers with a new regime and drafting them and some of them get hurt, which is an inherent risk.*

 

“Well not like that.”

[CubinNY]

Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.

Yes, I thought about adding it to the post, but the discussion needs to die, for now. I hope the board is around in 3-5 years (and I'm around too, lol).

 

Farris appears to have more upside as a starting pitcher to me than Horton who is likely a closer or set-up guy.

[Tryptamine]

BP top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/79861/2023-prospects-the-top-101/

 

28. PCA

80. Caissie

88. Mervis

 

No Davis or Alcántara.

 

Were the rating systems always this bad?

[craig]

Tom, I didn't say Wicks was or wasn't a 5th starter, myself. Beats me. I hope he's more.

 

I had just tried to summarize why scouts would see him that way, and would not rank him highly. 5th starter is where scouts place guys with average stuff. And I think almost every big-league pitchers, 5th starters included, have at least one above-average pitch. So having one 55-pitch and otherwise average doesn't make a guy get scouted as better than #5, if that's how they see him, that's why they ranked him where they did. But nothing stays the same. They might scout him differently a year from now, in which case they'll rank him differently. If they said his change was a 55 but used to be 70, maybe he'll get the 70-caliber change back? Maybe a breaking ball they scouted as average this year, on nights the scouts saw him, maybe they'll see him on sharper nights and grade more favorably? Who knows?

 

Tom, I think they already factor in the lefty stuff when they grade the pitches? For example, if a RHP threw a fastball with Wicks velocity and spin rates, that a righty would have it graded as below-average? I think they scouted it as high as average because relative to lefties its not bad, but if a RHP prospect threw it no harder, that it would scout as below average?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline Top 100:

 

28. PCA

87. Kevin Alcántara

92. Brennen Davis

[Bertz]

I don't think it's unreasonable to not include Hayden Wesneski, but I will say I can't even really devil's advocate my way into thinking Ryan Pepiot is better, and he somehow came in at #70.

[Bertz]

 

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

[CubinNY]

 

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

I think he's the Cubs' best prospect by a wide margin. I don't pretend to be an expert, though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

 

26. PCA

29. Alcántara

50. Davis

[Bertz]

 

I don't know exactly how he mathed this but a composite ranking of the BA, MLB, BP, and Keith Law prospect lists. FG and ESPN still to come, though I don't think they'll move things that much. Probably move Alcantara and Caissie up a bit and Davis down?

 

I'm surprised at the total lack of support we've seen for the pitchers. I don't think any of them are slam dunk top 100 types, but Wesneski ought to be close and each of Wicks, Brown, and Horton are of the caliber where you wouldn't be surprised by some assorted love. Instead I believe Callis said Horton would make his personal list and that's it. Maybe that's another change we end up seeing from the last two lists, since they both tend to lean on the newer age data pretty hard.

[Cubswin11]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

 

[CubinNY]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

 

He could be a difference-maker this year. Best case he destroys AAA for two months. Bellinger holds his own at the plate and brings back a good MLB-ready pitching prospect in July.