10/12 NLDS Game 5 Cubs (Hendricks) vs DB's Nats (Gio) 7 pm TBS

[OleMissCub]

[jersey cubs fan]

PERFECT!!!!!!!

[Cubswin11]

lineup predictions?

 

i'm gonna go with

 

almora

bryant

rizzo

contreras

zobrist

russell

baez

happ

If I had to guess that's probably it, maybe Heyward over Happ.

[David]

horsefeathers, I say go nuts and start Schwarber against a LH, and put Happ at 2B.

and no javy against a lefty?

[UMFan83]

The lineup should be interesting. Gio is starting so we will have our lefty lineup in there, but I totally expect for him to get pulled at the first sign of trouble and Scherzer to come in who, as we know, destroys righties. Then once he's done we're left with a bullpen who is lefty heavy. So how much Joe swaps out people midgame will likely depend on how desperate we are for runs in the middle innings. Because if Max is facing a stable of righties, the chances of runs being scored is low (well low regardless, but even lower). But if you swap them all with lefties, Dusty can throw a bunch of lefties at the Cubs in the later innings and you might have someone like Schwarber taking a key at bat against a LHP because the bench is empty.

 

Edit: For instance, what do you do about Almora? If he starts, he will likely get pulled midgame and you dont have your best PH bat and good defensive replacement for later in the game. So do you keep him out of the lineup so you can use him later?

Edited October 12, 2017 by UMFan83

[Sammy Sofa]

horsefeathers, I say go nuts and start Schwarber against a LH, and put Happ at 2B.

and no javy against a lefty?

 

Oh yeah; forgot about him, I guess. OK, play Happ in RF.

[gobigred]

Kinda think tonight is the night the Nats figure out how to win a series.. Hope not but baseball is random

[UMFan83]

horsefeathers, I say go nuts and start Schwarber against a LH, and put Happ at 2B.

and no javy against a lefty?

 

Just pretend its Javy's face

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jay, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Zobrist seems like a lock for the top 5, for better or worse. None of them are getting yanked with a pitching change. Happ, Javy, and Almora seem like logical starts, but I'm not sure what order to put them in. Happ is the worst of the 3 against LHP but the one you are likely to leave in at the plate given that he's a better hitter from the left side. He's also the most likely to get pulled defensively. Almora has strong defense and kills lefties, but do you want him 6th when he might only get 1 shot at Gio?

[JeffH]

Jay, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Zobrist seems like a lock for the top 5, for better or worse. None of them are getting yanked with a pitching change. Happ, Javy, and Almora seem like logical starts, but I'm not sure what order to put them in. Happ is the worst of the 3 against LHP but the one you are likely to leave in at the plate given that he's a better hitter from the left side. He's also the most likely to get pulled defensively. Almora has strong defense and kills lefties, but do you want him 6th when he might only get 1 shot at Gio?

 

Russell?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jay, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Zobrist seems like a lock for the top 5, for better or worse. None of them are getting yanked with a pitching change. Happ, Javy, and Almora seem like logical starts, but I'm not sure what order to put them in. Happ is the worst of the 3 against LHP but the one you are likely to leave in at the plate given that he's a better hitter from the left side. He's also the most likely to get pulled defensively. Almora has strong defense and kills lefties, but do you want him 6th when he might only get 1 shot at Gio?

 

Russell?

 

I was gonna go with a slow pitch outfield, but sure I'll indulge your theory.

 

EDIT: More seriously, so Russell 6th, Javy 7th, and Happ/Almora/Heyward 8th would seem like a decent guess.

[squally1313]

Drunk Joe/my secretly ideal lineup

 

1. Almora CF

2. Bryant LF

3. Rizzo 1B

4. Contreras C

5. Happ RF

6. Russell SS

7. Baez 3B

8. 3 AM 2B

[Sammy Sofa]

Jay's got, like, a .450 OBP or something against lefties.

[Sammy Sofa]

Sorry; .430

[squally1313]

Eh, I think that's playing way over his head...100 PAs with a .391 BAPIP and a 16% hard hit. But just realizing LaStella only has like 14 PAs against lefties this year, even though he's 100+ points better in OPS vs lefties in his career. Fine, whatever, Jay to right, Happ to second.

[squally1313]

This isn't really a good song, but I'd be remiss if I didn't add it to the thread on a day like today.

 

[Banedon]

[Banedon]

[Sammy Sofa]

Eh, I think that's playing way over his head...100 PAs with a .391 BAPIP and a 16% hard hit. But just realizing LaStella only has like 14 PAs against lefties this year, even though he's 100+ points better in OPS vs lefties in his career. Fine, whatever, Jay to right, Happ to second.

 

Even if you go by Jay's career numbers, he's still got a .378 OBP against LH starters. I just want someone on base.

[squally1313]

Eh, I think that's playing way over his head...100 PAs with a .391 BAPIP and a 16% hard hit. But just realizing LaStella only has like 14 PAs against lefties this year, even though he's 100+ points better in OPS vs lefties in his career. Fine, whatever, Jay to right, Happ to second.

 

Even if you go by Jay's career numbers, he's still got a .378 OBP against LH starters. I just want someone on base.

 

I'm seeing .359 in his career (and .410 this year), but he's working good at bats and LaStella hasn't seen any lefties all year. I'm fine with it.

[Omar]

Cubs v. Gonzalez

                                                                                           
Name                 PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP
Jason Heyward        39  37  8  1  0  0   6  2  5  .216  .256  .243  .500  0  0   0   0   2
Anthony Rizzo        24  22  2  0  0  0   0  2  6  .091  .167  .091  .258  0  0   0   0   0
Jon Jay              19  15  4  0  0  0   1  2  2  .267  .368  .267  .635  0  1   0   1   1
Ben Zobrist          14  10  2  2  0  0   0  3  3  .200  .385  .400  .785  1  0   0   0   0
Kris Bryant          12  10  2  0  0  1   1  2  2  .200  .333  .500  .833  0  0   1   0   0
Addison Russell       9   6  1  0  0  0   1  3  3  .167  .444  .167  .611  0  0   0   0   0
Javier Baez           6   6  0  0  0  0   0  0  5  .000  .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
John Lackey           5   4  1  0  0  0   0  0  1  .250  .250  .250  .500  1  0   0   0   1
Albert Almora         3   0  0  0  0  0   0  3        0             1.000  0  0   1   0   0
Willson Contreras     3   2  1  0  0  1   1  0  1  .500  .500 2.000 2.500  1  0   0   0   0
Ian Happ              3   3  0  0  0  0   0  0  1  .000  .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Tommy La Stella       3   1  0  0  0  0   0  2  0  .000  .667  .000  .667  0  0   0   0   0
Jake Arrieta          2   2  0  0  0  0   0  0  1  .000  .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Alex Avila            2   1  1  0  0  1   2  1  0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000  0  0   0   0   0
Total               144 119 22  3  0  3  12 20 30  .185  .305  .286  .591  3  1   2   1   4

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 10/12/2017.

 

Nats v. Hendricks

                                                                                   
Name             PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP
Adam Lind        17 16  3  1  0  0   1  1  4 .188 .235 .250  .485  0  0   0   0   0
Daniel Murphy    16 15  4  1  0  3   4  1  3 .267 .313 .933 1.246  0  0   1   0   0
Bryce Harper     15 13  4  0  0  1   1  2  0 .308 .400 .538  .938  0  0   0   0   1
Anthony Rendon   12 11  2  1  0  0   0  1  3 .182 .250 .273  .523  0  0   0   0   0
Ryan Zimmerman    9  9  0  0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Michael Taylor    5  5  1  1  0  0   0  0  0 .200 .200 .400  .600  0  0   0   0   0
Jayson Werth      5  3  0  0  0  0   0  2  1 .000 .400 .000  .400  0  0   0   0   0
Brian Goodwin     4  4  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Wilmer Difo       3  3  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Howie Kendrick    3  3  2  0  0  0   0  0  0 .667 .667 .667 1.333  0  0   0   0   0
Tanner Roark      3  3  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0   0
Max Scherzer      3  2  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 .000  .000  1  0   0   0   0
Matt Wieters      3  2  0  0  0  0   0  1  2 .000 .333 .000  .333  0  0   0   0   0
Total            98 89 16  4  0  4   6  8 18 .180 .247 .360  .607  1  0   1   0   1

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 10/12/2017.

[imb]

i anticipate turning this game off and back on at least 8 times tonight

[Sammy Sofa]

Eh, I think that's playing way over his head...100 PAs with a .391 BAPIP and a 16% hard hit. But just realizing LaStella only has like 14 PAs against lefties this year, even though he's 100+ points better in OPS vs lefties in his career. Fine, whatever, Jay to right, Happ to second.

 

Even if you go by Jay's career numbers, he's still got a .378 OBP against LH starters. I just want someone on base.

 

I'm seeing .359 in his career (and .410 this year), but he's working good at bats and LaStella hasn't seen any lefties all year. I'm fine with it.

 

.359 is against lefties in general; the .378 is against LH starters over his career.

[squally1313]

 

Even if you go by Jay's career numbers, he's still got a .378 OBP against LH starters. I just want someone on base.

 

I'm seeing .359 in his career (and .410 this year), but he's working good at bats and LaStella hasn't seen any lefties all year. I'm fine with it.

 

.359 is against lefties in general; the .378 is against LH starters over his career.

 

Interesting, didn't know you could pull that data, I stand corrected.

 

Pretty much got what we want, besides Happ (Heyward against a lefty?!?!)

[squally1313]