Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

[Sammy Sofa]

I agree he's above average in that he hits a ton of dongs (I think he's on pace to hit 30 or so again this year), but it seems like he's really testing the bizarre limit of just how valuable a dude who basically ONLY has the plus of crushing dongs can be. Beyond that he seems to be Just a Dude, at best.

 

If the Cubs' OF wasn't such a damn Dead Zone, you could pretty easily get away with burying him in the corner and enjoying those 30ish dongs a year, but, as it stands, each spot has just turned out to be its own glaring area of suck.

[squally1313]

I agree he's above average in that he hits a ton of dongs (I think he's on pace to hit 30 or so again this year), but it seems like he's really testing the bizarre limit of just how valuable a dude who basically ONLY has the plus of crushing dongs can be. Beyond that he seems to be Just a Dude, at best.

 

If the Cubs' OF wasn't such a damn Dead Zone, you could pretty easily get away with burying him in the corner and enjoying those 30ish dongs a year, but, as it stands, each spot has just turned out to be its own glaring area of suck.

 

Well the issue with the dongs is that being on pace for 30 in 2019 MLB isn't all that impressive anymore, as evidenced by the fact that he currently sits 69th (nice) in home runs right now. Sure, you hope there's more coming as it warms up at Wrigley, but projections are only counting on 27 total, which puts him right above last year. His best tool right now is his plate discipline, but as you mentioned, it almost seems too good at some points, and I know anecdotally we can all point out at least a few ABs where he gets totally screwed up by the umpire. If all he's going to be is a 30 HR guy, he needs to find a way to get a walk rate as close to 20% as he can and be some Joey Gallo-lite. That probably involves adding some 2 strike protect swing, which would obviously hinder the power...Rizzo's approach would be ideal, but we know how rare that is.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Is there a simple way to tell how many HRs he's hit w/ 2 strikes?

[squally1313]

Is there a simple way to tell how many HRs he's hit w/ 2 strikes?

3 HRs, with a .113/.234/.217 slash line, 124 PAs. Though I don't know how unusual that is compared to like, league average.

 

Rizzo has 2, but puts up a .226/.297/.340

 

BaseballRef splits, if interested.

[UMFan83]

Had to go very far back to find this thread. Sometimes I forget Willson Contreras is still on the Cubs. Anyways, he talked about extensions today and seemed to sound more like he did earlier in the season than he did after the deadline.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-willson-contreras-desire-extension-show-me-plan

 

“If they want to rebuild around me, that’s going to be a conversation overall,” said Contreras, whose team is seven losses away, with more than a month to play, from his first career losing season.

 

To reverse that anytime soon, it’s going to take a significant effort by the team to add talent over the winter, most likely through free agency — and especially starting pitching.

 

And “I know that,” Contreras said during a conversation this week with NBC Sports Chicago. “Let’s see what happens. We still have a few more games to go and then see what happens in the offseason. If there is mutual interest, I would be open to talking and see what their plan is and what would be good for the team.”

 

Despite how comments he made soon after the deadline might have been interpreted, Contreras’ thoughts on the subject of an extension have not change since he told NBC Sports Chicago in May that he’s not interested in a long-term rebuilding process and would want a few answers before committing to any kind of long-term contract.

[UMFan83]

 

This franchise really is terrible in every conceivable way

 

It seems like Jed is taking an emotionless approach to team building. This may not be a popular opinion here but you need likable players like Willson to get you through the lean years. Heck I grew up in 80s and 90s and my love for the Cubs was centered around Ryno, Grace, Dunston, Dawson, Sosa, etc. They were garbage most years but those were my stars growing up. My kids are already so disillusioned with the Cubs because all of the players they liked aren't here anymore.

 

I get that the point is to win and winning will cure all ills. But we're not the Rays, we can extend likable players and possibly suffer a couple decline years AND still spend money wisely to build a contender.

[sneakypower]

 

This franchise really is terrible in every conceivable way

 

It seems like Jed is taking an emotionless approach to team building. This may not be a popular opinion here but you need likable players like Willson to get you through the lean years. Heck I grew up in 80s and 90s and my love for the Cubs was centered around Ryno, Grace, Dunston, Dawson, Sosa, etc. They were garbage most years but those were my stars growing up. My kids are already so disillusioned with the Cubs because all of the players they liked aren't here anymore.

 

I get that the point is to win and winning will cure all ills. But we're not the Rays, we can extend likable players and possibly suffer a couple decline years AND still spend money wisely to build a contender.

taking a brainless approach to team building as well, expressing general satisfaction with our middle infield as it stands and the .550 OPS horsefeathers head currently slated to start

[Gilby]

I guess my takeaway, especially after the last 8 months, is it's perfectly reasonable to not rush to sign a post-prime player to a market value extension.

[Rob]

 

This franchise really is terrible in every conceivable way

 

It seems like Jed is taking an emotionless approach to team building. This may not be a popular opinion here but you need likable players like Willson to get you through the lean years. Heck I grew up in 80s and 90s and my love for the Cubs was centered around Ryno, Grace, Dunston, Dawson, Sosa, etc. They were garbage most years but those were my stars growing up. My kids are already so disillusioned with the Cubs because all of the players they liked aren't here anymore.

 

I get that the point is to win and winning will cure all ills. But we're not the Rays, we can extend likable players and possibly suffer a couple decline years AND still spend money wisely to build a contender.

 

Meh.

 

There's some room for that, certainly. If you had all the pieces for a winning team in place and they'd decided to overpay Baez just so the fans could have the entertainment value from watching him play, I think everybody here would be fine with that.

 

But the thing I want to see more than anything else is a winning team. Once the decision was made to sell last season, I was glad to see them go all-in on it, rather than offer somebody like Rizzo an extension to be an overpaid player on a bad team just because he's likable. Same for Willy. The Cubs window for real contention has closed. Barring some incredible luck, Willson Contreras will not be a valuable contributor on the next good Cubs team. So we might as well shop him and get some value for him at the deadline.

 

Once some of these prospects start panning out, we can always develop new fan favorites. Maybe we'll talk about Davis, Hernandez, and Crow-Armstrong the way we talked about Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez. But I'd much rather see the Cubs winning than putting out more bad teams with our old core.

[Tim]

First: I love Willson.

 

Second: I'm really not excited about extending a catcher for his declining years. He's been my second favorite player on the team behind Baez for a long time, but he's the last one I'd extend.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yep, Bryant and Rizzo and Hendricks are not dripping in charisma or particularly expressive players, but they were/are favorites because they were really good for several years. If Hoerner or Madrigal or Suzuki or Davis or even Wisdom or Schwindel are really good, people will love them too.

 

Also, even if you want them to overindex on personality, they just paid 20 million a year for Stroman!

[UMFan83]

I guess my takeaway, especially after the last 8 months, is it's perfectly reasonable to not rush to sign a post-prime player to a market value extension.

 

Doesn't sound like they are even talking, and it seems like they have already signed his replacement so they can trade him at the deadline. It reads like they've already decided his fate, not as much a 'go test the market and see what you find out there before coming back to us' situation. And on the surface it makes sense. 29 year old catcher, not really a superstar or anything. And if you look at Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Javy and Willson, individually they all make sense to not extend I guess. But collectively it suggests a emotionless way of building your baseball team. Like I said, this might not be a point everyone agrees with me on, but I think there is some value to doing your fanbase a solid and let the occasional player stick around. It might be the better baseball decision, but I think it hurts fan connection with the team.

 

Yes all of those guys got worse deals than offered the Cubs, I recognize that but it seems really curious to me that we tried to extend all of them and none of them signed.

[Tim]

I think the thing that hurts the connection to the team is to have all those contracts come up at one time. If they had staggered those out more effectively, then there are bridge players from one generation to the next.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yep, Bryant and Rizzo and Hendricks are not dripping in charisma or particularly expressive players, but they were/are favorites because they were really good for several years. If Hoerner or Madrigal or Suzuki or Davis or even Wisdom or Schwindel are really good, people will love them too.

 

I love tacos because they taste good and would also love rotten eggs if they tasted like tacos.

[Rob]

I guess my takeaway, especially after the last 8 months, is it's perfectly reasonable to not rush to sign a post-prime player to a market value extension.

 

Doesn't sound like they are even talking, and it seems like they have already signed his replacement so they can trade him at the deadline. It reads like they've already decided his fate, not as much a 'go test the market and see what you find out there before coming back to us' situation. And on the surface it makes sense. 29 year old catcher, not really a superstar or anything. And if you look at Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Javy and Willson, individually they all make sense to not extend I guess. But collectively it suggests a emotionless way of building your baseball team. Like I said, this might not be a point everyone agrees with me on, but I think there is some value to doing your fanbase a solid and let the occasional player stick around. It might be the better baseball decision, but I think it hurts fan connection with the team.

 

Yes all of those guys got worse deals than offered the Cubs, I recognize that but it seems really curious to me that we tried to extend all of them and none of them signed.

 

Did the QO survive this iteration of the CBA? I can't remember. If so, I could see the Cubs holding onto Willy at the deadline and extending a QO if the circumstances justify it. Otherwise, yeah. It's seems more likely than not that he's traded.

 

And I 100% agree, there's real value in having players stick around occasionally. This front office has definitely been concerned with things like clubhouse chemistry, and having some of the old vets on the team is a part of that. But as you said, Willson isn't exactly a superstar. He's an above-average catcher about to hit the ugly portion of the aging curve. Best to get value while the getting is good. There are other ways to get consistent presences in the clubhouse. We've still got Hendricks, and he seems a better bet to age reasonably well and sign relatively cheaply. Heck, Ross is the manager. And maybe in a couple years when we're competing again we might bring back Rizzo or whoever as the DH.

 

It's not so much the overall concept that I think people will argue with you about. It's just trying to shoehorn Willson in as that guy that doesn't really work.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Yep, Bryant and Rizzo and Hendricks are not dripping in charisma or particularly expressive players, but they were/are favorites because they were really good for several years. If Hoerner or Madrigal or Suzuki or Davis or even Wisdom or Schwindel are really good, people will love them too.

 

I love tacos because they taste good and would also love rotten eggs if they tasted like tacos.

But what if you mistook rotten eggs for tacos?

[Bertz]

I like Jed a lot, I think he's very good. That said, he seems to pretty clearly have a small market set of sensibilities. He and Theo were good about not leaking disagreements, but the ones we've gotten make it seem like in their partnership Theo was Chris Traeger and Jed was Ben Wyatt. Without Theo in the room, I'm a little worried about whether he'll have the stones to say go grab Juan Soto in a year or two.

 

I love Wilson, but this is one where I'm very comfortable with Jed at the wheel. Catchers are like pitchers where they're such injury risks that you don't want to lock them down until you absolutely have to.

 

I know we're all irked that no one except Kyle stuck around long term, but at the same time after the Arrieta debacle last year I don't actually think "I don't care whether it's a good investment or not he's one of our guys" actually holds up when push starts coming to shove.

[Andy]

Did the QO survive this iteration of the CBA? I can't remember. If so, I could see the Cubs holding onto Willy at the deadline and extending a QO if the circumstances justify it. Otherwise, yeah. It's seems more likely than not that he's traded.

The QO will be gone if MLB and the players union agree on an international draft by July 22 or something (and early reporting has indicated that seems unlikely), otherwise it will stick around.

[UMFan83]

I guess my takeaway, especially after the last 8 months, is it's perfectly reasonable to not rush to sign a post-prime player to a market value extension.

 

Doesn't sound like they are even talking, and it seems like they have already signed his replacement so they can trade him at the deadline. It reads like they've already decided his fate, not as much a 'go test the market and see what you find out there before coming back to us' situation. And on the surface it makes sense. 29 year old catcher, not really a superstar or anything. And if you look at Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Javy and Willson, individually they all make sense to not extend I guess. But collectively it suggests a emotionless way of building your baseball team. Like I said, this might not be a point everyone agrees with me on, but I think there is some value to doing your fanbase a solid and let the occasional player stick around. It might be the better baseball decision, but I think it hurts fan connection with the team.

 

Yes all of those guys got worse deals than offered the Cubs, I recognize that but it seems really curious to me that we tried to extend all of them and none of them signed.

 

Did the QO survive this iteration of the CBA? I can't remember. If so, I could see the Cubs holding onto Willy at the deadline and extending a QO if the circumstances justify it. Otherwise, yeah. It's seems more likely than not that he's traded.

 

And I 100% agree, there's real value in having players stick around occasionally. This front office has definitely been concerned with things like clubhouse chemistry, and having some of the old vets on the team is a part of that. But as you said, Willson isn't exactly a superstar. He's an above-average catcher about to hit the ugly portion of the aging curve. Best to get value while the getting is good. There are other ways to get consistent presences in the clubhouse. We've still got Hendricks, and he seems a better bet to age reasonably well and sign relatively cheaply. Heck, Ross is the manager. And maybe in a couple years when we're competing again we might bring back Rizzo or whoever as the DH.

 

It's not so much the overall concept that I think people will argue with you about. It's just trying to shoehorn Willson in as that guy that doesn't really work.

 

Shoehorning Willson in there is because he's the only one left lol (besides Heyward and Kyle). Do we even know what Willson would accept? He's never really said much except: 1) the cubs arent talking to him and 2) he wants to be on a winning team. I'm sure there's been some discussions behind the scenes and maybe he's made it clear he's not taking a team friendly deal which is his right. Which is why I'm not limiting my angst to one situation, its more the collective inability to extend a single position player from a championship core COMBINED with the 4 years of tanking followed by the promised competitive window that was torpedoed mid-window by a payroll cap. I have a lot of angst, some of it is justified, some of it is probably not. Fair to call out the stuff that isn't but combined it just leaves me in a general state of malice regarding the organization. I'm ranting about Spring Training games not being broadcast now lol. If everything else was rosy would I care at all? No. But its just another sign of the organization doing horsefeathers things at every turn.

[CubinNY]

The mantra use to be: every season is precious.

 

The mantra now: every dollar is precious.

[Derwood]

[Cubswin11]

I like Jed a lot, I think he's very good. That said, he seems to pretty clearly have a small market set of sensibilities. He and Theo were good about not leaking disagreements, but the ones we've gotten make it seem like in their partnership Theo was Chris Traeger and Jed was Ben Wyatt. Without Theo in the room, I'm a little worried about whether he'll have the stones to say go grab Juan Soto in a year or two.

 

I love Wilson, but this is one where I'm very comfortable with Jed at the wheel. Catchers are like pitchers where they're such injury risks that you don't want to lock them down until you absolutely have to.

 

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target.

 

But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

[Backtobanks]

Contreras was gone the day they signed Gomes. It's been a matter of when and not if.

[CubinNY]

I like Jed a lot, I think he's very good. That said, he seems to pretty clearly have a small market set of sensibilities. He and Theo were good about not leaking disagreements, but the ones we've gotten make it seem like in their partnership Theo was Chris Traeger and Jed was Ben Wyatt. Without Theo in the room, I'm a little worried about whether he'll have the stones to say go grab Juan Soto in a year or two.

 

I love Wilson, but this is one where I'm very comfortable with Jed at the wheel. Catchers are like pitchers where they're such injury risks that you don't want to lock them down until you absolutely have to.

 

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target.

 

But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here.

[Rob]

I like Jed a lot, I think he's very good. That said, he seems to pretty clearly have a small market set of sensibilities. He and Theo were good about not leaking disagreements, but the ones we've gotten make it seem like in their partnership Theo was Chris Traeger and Jed was Ben Wyatt. Without Theo in the room, I'm a little worried about whether he'll have the stones to say go grab Juan Soto in a year or two.

 

I love Wilson, but this is one where I'm very comfortable with Jed at the wheel. Catchers are like pitchers where they're such injury risks that you don't want to lock them down until you absolutely have to.

 

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target.

 

But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here.

 

I think it's precisely because MLB catching is a "black hole of suck" that the Cubs would adopt this approach.

 

Look at the fWAR leaderboards for catching last year. Contreras comes in 12th, surrounded by guys who aren't particularly well-regarded. And that's because most catchers either hit well or defend well, but only a sparse handful do well at both.

 

Contreras can hit, but he's just not much of a defender at a position with a really high bar for it. And ultimately, that's the problem. I'm sure Jed looks at the catching marketplace and realizes that paying for a defensive specialist who can put up comparable total value to Contreras is going be a heck of a lot cheaper than a flashy, offense-first guy like Contreras.