Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

[Sammy Sofa]

Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.

he has a top-30 fWAR in MLB

 

Right, and that would be even sexier without his god awful catching dragging him down.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.

he has a top-30 fWAR in MLB

Sure, but how well does fWAR take into account his framing suckage? And he could possibly be cranking out a higher fWAR as an OF.

[Sammy Sofa]

Catcher seems like the position where you can get away with having all glove/no hit guys like you used to be able to in the MI.

 

I dunno; it's just frustrating watching him be so bad behind the plate while being so baller at the plate. And then that terrible, terrible Cubs OF seems so open and needs so much improvement...

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

This is one of those 'here's a good idea' things that has no real answer to 'Ok, done, then what do you do next?'

Sign someone like Grandal for 16 mil on a short term contract and win lots of games?

[17 Seconds]

This is one of those 'here's a good idea' things that has no real answer to 'Ok, done, then what do you do next?'

Sign someone like Grandal for 16 mil on a short term contract and win lots of games?

 

trading willson for prospects or major league pitching and then signing grandal makes way too much sense for it to happen

[sneakypower]

you guys don't deserve nice things

[Sammy Sofa]

Man, I don't want to trade him, dammit.

 

But if I WAS an insane baseball president, I would definitely look to move catching prospects who can hit but aren't actually any better than serviceable at best at catching to literally any other position ASAP. Between how it seems to shorten careers, has them playing fewer games each season than the average healthy starting player, and how the margin of good to suck seems like a gigantic cliff that favors the latter, I'd make catching the dumping ground for guys who can't hit. Get those swaggy bats somewhere more valuable.

 

Also: convert more starting pitching prospects to relievers sooner rather than later.

 

GIVE ME A BASEBALL TEAM.

[17 Seconds]

also don't catchers tend to decline earlier? trade hiiimmmmm

[Sammy Sofa]

MY IDEA IS BETTER BECAUSE IT KEEPS WILLSON CONTRERAS AND SPARES HIM FROM COMING DOWN WITH CATCHERITIS.

[squally1313]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

[17 Seconds]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

are you talking about grandal?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

Albert Almora's fWAR the past four seasons: 0.6, 1.1, 1.1, 0.6 (so far)

Yasmani Grandal's fWAR the past four seasons: 5.5, 4.5, 4.9, 2.0 (so far)

 

Yeah, Almora doesn't get as many ABs as Grandal, but normalized for playing time, its still a huge leap. I also think there is a chance that Contreras could put up HIGHER fWAR levels as an outfielder. I also don't see how that shrinks viable options. We would have what some of us hoped Schwarber could be: a guy that could catch ocne every other week as needed who rakes in the OF the rest of the time. If there is anyone I want to trade high on this upcoming offseason, its Almora.

Edited May 29, 2019 by JudasIscariotTheBird

[Sammy Sofa]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.

[squally1313]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

are you talking about grandal?

 

Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

 

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).

2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.

3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

[squally1313]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.

 

Yeah, the 'pay more money' was referring to Grandal, which I covered above. I think it's a little naive to just assume 'replace Almora with Grandal' is some definitely viable option. Which leaves you with 'serviceable defensive-first catchers', which goes back to original point of 'like who?' Yes, catcher is more important defensively, but Contreras is much better offensively than the average catcher, which still matters.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

are you talking about grandal?

 

Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

 

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).

2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.

3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire. I mentioned Grandal because his deal was normalish. Realmuto signed on a 2.7 mil one year contract (!?!?) and he's quite a bit better at this point.

Edited May 29, 2019 by JudasIscariotTheBird

[Sammy Sofa]

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

 

Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.

 

Yeah, the 'pay more money' was referring to Grandal, which I covered above. I think it's a little naive to just assume 'replace Almora with Grandal' is some definitely viable option. Which leaves you with 'serviceable defensive-first catchers', which goes back to original point of 'like who?' Yes, catcher is more important defensively, but Contreras is much better offensively than the average catcher, which still matters.

 

And he'd be better offensively than the average OF, too, and he'd do much less damage out there than behind the plate.

 

IMO, the guy is a massive liability defensively, but it's at a position where he's arguably dragging down the pitching, which already needs to walk a pretty fine line.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, yeah, I get it; the Cubs are trying not to spend, but at some point they're to have to. That OF is too much of a wasteland.

[squally1313]

 

are you talking about grandal?

 

Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

 

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).

2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.

3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire.

 

Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison.

 

I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic.

[Sammy Sofa]

"Kicking out" makes moving him to another position sound a tad dramatic.

[Sammy Sofa]

Like, Willson is awesome, almost totally due to his bat at this point, and playing another position gets his bat into the lineup more. I don't get throwing his WAR out there like it justifies how much he horsefeathering sucks at catching. Yes, it IS awesome that his bat can overcome that, and it would be even more awesome if he was even more valuable; I'm pretty sure a .302 .405 .579 would still be valuable from an OFer, too.

 

And then the added bonus of not having a terrible defensive catcher on a team run by people who inexplicably built a starting rotation and a bullpen that desperately needs someone who can frame and block worth a damn.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

 

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).

2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.

3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire.

 

Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison.

 

I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic.

One question: Do you think the Cubs get more long-term WAR on Willson's contract by keeping him at C and signing a 2 WAR OF, or playing him in the OF (with a dash of C) and signing a 2 WAR C (who admittedly would cost slightly more than the 2 WAR OF)?

[squally1313]

"Kicking out" makes moving him to another position sound a tad dramatic.

If Contreras finishes with a career year like he's on pace to, and then in the offseason you go sign the catcher that was like, one of two or three people to be move valuable than him (and is four years older), and tell Contreras, undisputed starter at catcher for the last 3 years, to go join the revolving cast of outfielders, it's pretty close to kicking him out.

[Banedon]

Like, Willson is awesome, almost totally due to his bat at this point

 

I'm not going using it to justify his continued catching...but he's also great at keeping runners from advancing, particularly when Lester is pitching. While you may want more from the catcher position than that, he's so good at it that it's a factor that shouldn't be ignored.

[squally1313]

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire.

 

Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison.

 

I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic.

One question: Do you think the Cubs get more long-term WAR on Willson's contract by keeping him at C and signing a 2 WAR OF, or playing him in the OF (with a dash of C) and signing a 2 WAR C (who admittedly would cost slightly more than the 2 WAR OF)?

 

So essentially your question is does Contreras have more value as a starting catcher (125ish games) or some sort of outfielder/third catcher (140ish games). In that hypothetical, it'd be close, but I still think he has more value at catcher. But given your admission that a 2 WAR catcher is more expensively than a 2 WAR outfielder (and I didn't even check to see which of those catchers is even hitting the market), why not take your 2 WAR catcher money and go get a 3 WAR outfielder, since there are a lot more of those out there? Or spend it on a Hamels replacement?

 

For me, the time to move Contreras to the outfield (or to another team) is if/when Amaya starts looking like the real deal, which is hopefully in about 12 months. Right now he's getting BABIPed in A+, but he improved his walk rate, K rate, and ISO, and from what I've read he's solid behind the plate. If he keeps developing, the timing works out with Contreras getting more expensive and the grind of every day catching taking its toll.