Cubs trading Soler to KC for Wade Davis

BigSlick · December 7, 2016

I was one of Soler's biggest boosters on this board, and I'm ok with this deal. I think we're seeing the front office's philosophy regarding elite relievers play out between this and the Chapman trade: They really don't want to give long deals to relievers. They're more than fine with having stopgaps after stopgaps, perhaps they prefer it that way. (Well, stopgaps and fireballing young pitchers) Whether or not that's the strongest philosophy, I don't know, but its certainly being illustrated.

UK · December 7, 2016

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

And this is why you are not an MLB GM.

sneakypower · December 7, 2016

don't terribly mind this, but it's more that i can conceive other reasonable packages i'd be more excited by than just a single year of Davis, for Jorge

Bull · December 7, 2016

Exactly. Not sure where the hell he plays with the people we have in the outfield at this point.

I'm not really sure I want to see the Cubs use Schwarber as a straight platoon. I'd like to see him become an everyday player. Given that he will likely sit a lot versus lefties, I'd probably still rather see Contreras or Zobrist out there ahead of Soler. The Cubs can time their behind the plate rest days for Contreras for an upcoming lefty matchup where he can play LF.

If Contreras is in LF, that means Montero is behind the plate vs a tough lefty? No thanks.

I don't think it will be a straight platoon. Among lefties you might sit against a tough lefty, (i.e., sans rizzo) you have Schwarber, Jay, Heyward and Montero. To replace them you have one of Javy/Zobrist, Almora, Szczur, and Contreras. I'm guessing that 2 of Schwarber, Jay and Heyward stay in the lineup vs. lefties. Soler will be missed.

David · December 7, 2016

don't terribly mind this, but it's more that i can conceive other reasonable packages i'd be more excited by than just a single year of Davis, for Jorge

Exactly

shnsajax · December 7, 2016

Would anyone else object to offering Davis an shorter extension. Coming off injury he might be more likely to take it. Will be 32 next off season so he's not getting a Jansen/Chapman type offer.

jersey cubs fan · December 7, 2016

So is Davis eligible to bring back a draft pick if he signs elsewhere?

I wouldn't rule out them bringing him back if this year goes well.

Bryants Disco Ball · December 7, 2016

The Cubs did nix a trade for Dan Haren because they weren't comfortable with the medicals. So if they sign off on Davis, I'm comfortable because they are comfortable.

BigbadB · December 7, 2016

Exactly. Not sure where the hell he plays with the people we have in the outfield at this point.

I'm not really sure I want to see the Cubs use Schwarber as a straight platoon. I'd like to see him become an everyday player. Given that he will likely sit a lot versus lefties, I'd probably still rather see Contreras or Zobrist out there ahead of Soler. The Cubs can time their behind the plate rest days for Contreras for an upcoming lefty matchup where he can play LF.

If Contreras is in LF, that means Montero is behind the plate vs a tough lefty? No thanks.

I don't think it will be a straight platoon. Among lefties you might sit against a tough lefty, (i.e., sans rizzo) you have Schwarber, Jay, Heyward and Montero. To replace them you have one of Javy/Zobrist, Almora, Szczur, and Contreras. I'm guessing that 2 of Schwarber, Jay and Heyward stay in the lineup vs. lefties. Soler will be missed.

Assuming they don't carry a 3rd catcher.

jersey cubs fan · December 7, 2016

Would anyone else object to offering Davis an shorter extension. Coming off injury he might be more likely to take it. Will be 32 next off season so he's not getting a Jansen/Chapman type offer.

You talking today or after the season? I see no reason to offer an extension today, unless there's a steep discount. I would definitely want to see an offer made later, as long as this season goes well. I wouldn't be happy if they went into this expecting it to be one and only one with no consideration for an extension.

Cubswin11 · December 7, 2016

Would anyone else object to offering Davis an shorter extension. Coming off injury he might be more likely to take it. Will be 32 next off season so he's not getting a Jansen/Chapman type offer.

I'd like to make sure his arm doesn't explode before May before going down that road

UK · December 7, 2016

Would anyone else object to offering Davis an shorter extension. Coming off injury he might be more likely to take it. Will be 32 next off season so he's not getting a Jansen/Chapman type offer.

Assuming what he would likely get as a FA, he would be foolish to sell low. Hopefully, he stays healthy and one of Strop, Robson, or my choice with Edwards put the Cubs in a position where they don't have to trade resources for bullpen help.

shnsajax · December 7, 2016

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

I think there's some logic there, but to get to that point requires some pessimism about their current level of spending.

2016: 170 million payroll upped to 180 midseason
2017: By adding Davis and subtracting Soler, they're basically at 160 with a full roster only needing a SP to bump Zastryzny off and Montgomery to the bullpen. They also added 300k fans and won a world series
2018: 63 million in FA departures, including 2 SP, Strop, and a bunch of lesser parts(Jay, Duensing, Montero). Bryant and Russell hit arbitration. Otani maybe available but current news says no.
2019: Only Rondon leaves in FA, Schwarber, Baez, and Montgomery hit arbitration, Harper, Machado, maybe Otani available
2020: New TV Deal, Zobrist and Grimm FAs, Otani definitely available

In other words, with the world series win and uptick in attendance, there should be some payroll growth that you can probably set aside to make sure the core's pre-FA increases are taken care of. That might get a little tricky in 2019 but that's also 3 years from now, who knows what the roster will look like. If you make that assumption, then you've got lots of cash and basically only 2 rotation spots to fill(and I guess CF if Almora fails), along with ensuring the bullpen is strong.

Bringing in an Otani or Harper prior to the new tv deal could also up that tv contract as well. I do expect Theo to maximize the roster a season or two prior to the new tv deal.

Bryants Disco Ball · December 7, 2016

Would anyone else object to offering Davis an shorter extension. Coming off injury he might be more likely to take it. Will be 32 next off season so he's not getting a Jansen/Chapman type offer.

Assuming what he would likely get as a FA, he would be foolish to sell low. Hopefully, he stays healthy and one of Strop, Robson, or my choice with Edwards put the Cubs in a position where they don't have to trade resources for bullpen help.

Exactly. If he bets on himself, he has a legit chance to be dominant this season. And considering he's younger than Mark Melancon he will still get a really nice contract.

Banedon · December 7, 2016

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

And this is why you are not an MLB GM.

http://i.giphy.com/xT1XGNoBS2mY59LWvu.gif

Bull · December 7, 2016

I'm not really sure I want to see the Cubs use Schwarber as a straight platoon. I'd like to see him become an everyday player. Given that he will likely sit a lot versus lefties, I'd probably still rather see Contreras or Zobrist out there ahead of Soler. The Cubs can time their behind the plate rest days for Contreras for an upcoming lefty matchup where he can play LF.

If Contreras is in LF, that means Montero is behind the plate vs a tough lefty? No thanks.

I don't think it will be a straight platoon. Among lefties you might sit against a tough lefty, (i.e., sans rizzo) you have Schwarber, Jay, Heyward and Montero. To replace them you have one of Javy/Zobrist, Almora, Szczur, and Contreras. I'm guessing that 2 of Schwarber, Jay and Heyward stay in the lineup vs. lefties. Soler will be missed.

Assuming they don't carry a 3rd catcher.

I think Schwarber is your emergency third catcher.

Elrhino · December 7, 2016

At the end of the day, I like Davis ceiling on this club more than Soler's. And even if his arm explodes in spring training, I'm not sure the floor is really that lower either. I think Maddon is still going to use Bryant and Contreras in LF on occasion.

We can hold out for hypothetical trade destination that would have gotten us better return. I don't see it. He only has value in the AL, and only to a team that has a need for DH. I'm not sure what the Rangers would offer. Jeffress?