"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

[squally1313]

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

 

I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IslSLG

 

Also, OF COURSE it's more of a nice hot streak. He's put up a 1.070 OPS since August 1. But it counts towards his season. And to Tom's point, his K rate in the first half was 28.3%. Second half is 18%. So we're looking at about 2 months of real development in that area, which is really encouraging.

[squally1313]

You know who's an interesting guy to look into coming into the offseason is Starling Marte. Has two more options at $24m total for the Pirates, who may think they're just a little far away from contending to pay that money. He'd look pretty nice in center next year.

[Cubswin11]

You know who's an interesting guy to look into coming into the offseason is Starling Marte. Has two more options at $24m total for the Pirates, who may think they're just a little far away from contending to pay that money. He'd look pretty nice in center next year.

Yeah he’d be an ideal target, don’t know if they’d deal with us or accept their fate of being a garbage team for the duration of his deal and sell. I also like Jed Lowrie as a target if he’s healthy and they do some reshuffling.

[Bertz]

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

 

I was actually referring to his season lines - Ks are down for the second year in a row, power is up significantly over last year with a .280 IsoSLG up from .230, headed into his age 27 season next year. I don't buy the italicized necessarily but mostly because I don't get why. He's a limited player but if he's making more contact, hitting it far in the air, doing more against LHs, and still taking walks its hard to buy that he's not capable of topping 120 pretty handily

 

His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis.

 

If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.

[Tim]

Suck it, haters.

[Bertz]

His season line right now with a 25% K rate is only a 112. wrc+. So how do you see him "handily" topping 120 while staying at 25%? I personally only see one way: a de-juiced ball leading his .840 OPS to be more impressive on a league adjusted basis.

 

If you think his K rate is going to continue to improve, then I don't understand what you're disagreeing with. I already said that I think this a hot streak, but that if these improvements are permanent it obviously changes the calculus.

 

His BABIP's 40 points lower than last year and well below his career average so that's a quick start. Walk rate is the lowest of his career, career year in EV, he barrels the ball consistently, hard, and far, makes more contact...There's not alot of stuff saying that .840 OPS is the best he's capable of at 25% and that 112 can climb pretty quickly with just his normal BABIP and BB rates instead. If the K rate really is still improving - say if this second half 18% leads to a league average or better K rate during his age 27 season we might really really get something

 

Iunno anything about permanent improvements but an age 27 Schwarber in 2020? Yeah sure, and obviously for the handful million he might make that is well worth finding out

 

His BABIP is only 15 points under his career line. With someone that puts the ball in play as little as him that's ~5 hits. It's 40 points lower than last year because last year he got Chili'd and hit the ball on the ground a lot more, so you're not getting back to that point unless you want to sacrifice a half dozen dongs for like 15 singles.

 

I'm not trying to run the guy out of town, in fact I'm pretty sure I defended him in April in this very thread, I'm just pointing out that basic math shows that he's pretty much capped at his current numbers unless there is a further drop in his K rate. Squally pointed out that he's at 18% since the ASB. That's great! But either an improvement in K's or my whole juiced ball thing *has* to be the case for him to be anything more than he's been thus far.

[sneakypower]

Schwarber 2nd in ISO since the start of August

[David]

Who was the player in the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract that got a long entry about how he came up as chunky but productive LF, got into working out back when that was kinda weird rather than woke, and basically made himself a productive ML for years? Schwarber?

 

I aspire to be as consistent at anything as you are at being weird as hell dude

[We Got The Whole 9]

Pretty sure that was Matt Stairs

[jersey cubs fan]

I aspire to be as consistent at anything as you are at being weird as hell dude

 

David, it is not that weird for a human being to vaguely remember a passage in a book they liked about a thing they liked lol

it's weird to refer to working out as being woke.

 

 

Also you're thinking of Andy Dwyer.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Pretty sure that was Matt Stairs

 

Nah, I'd remember that. Some guy from the 70s or 80s, maybe an Oriole, possibly Brian or Patrick in the name. I always remember the narrative but not the player...IIRC he also wore glasses

 

 

Don. Don Baylor. Had to have been.

[UMFan83]

A relatively small sample of 106 PAs but did anyone notice Kyle Schwarber has an .821 OPS against LHP this year? Joe has him in platoon jail for 2 years, might not be smart to do that anymore

[Tryptamine]

Not sure what he changed at the ASB but since then

 

165PAs .264/.358/.667 with 16 bombs on a .222babip. His first half K% was 28.3 and his second half has dropped to 17.6%. That's good for a 154wRC+.

[Bull]

Kyle struck out a lot less in the second half, and I think that accounts for the change.

 

How do you account for the fewer K's? I think reputation. Early in the year, Kyle got rung up on a lot of balls out of the zone. As umpires got feedback on their varied degrees of awfulness, I think they learned that Kyle is always right. He now has the reputation that "if Kyle Schwarber didn't swing at it, it wasn't a strike." I think this changes everything forever for Kyle.

 

I'd like to see some stats on called strikes and called strikes out of the zone in the first vs. second half if anyone knows where I can find those.

[muntjack]

This seems like a good time and place to go on record in support of Schwarber. He had a 3 WAR year last year at 25, is only now getting consistent PAs vs. LHP (he's improved every year) and I think he has another level coming. Just my opinion.

 

I'm probably going to quote myself here every time Kyle does even the slightest thing of note....

 

From Jun. 27th, when everyone was piling on him. *coughs loudly and pats self on back*

[squally1313]

This seems like a good time and place to go on record in support of Schwarber. He had a 3 WAR year last year at 25, is only now getting consistent PAs vs. LHP (he's improved every year) and I think he has another level coming. Just my opinion.

 

I'm probably going to quote myself here every time Kyle does even the slightest thing of note....

 

From Jun. 27th, when everyone was piling on him. *coughs loudly and pats self on back*

 

It was some idiot named Rynomites with 27 total posts and then a bunch of us jumping in to defend Schwarber. But sure dude, here's some message board points.

[muntjack]

I dislike Schwarber as much as the next guy, but Vogelbach wouldn't have ever been a LF option so there's no need to bring him into this.

[muntjack]

Homeboy is slashing .170 .279 .283 .562 over the last month, so we might be past "he's playing hurt" into "he just sucks and is old"-territory*.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*I think he's a turd player, so I MIGHT be biased.

[Sammy Sofa]

Homeboy is slashing .170 .279 .283 .562 over the last month, so we might be past "he's playing hurt" into "he just sucks and is old"-territory*.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*I think he's a turd player, so I MIGHT be biased.

 

That was about Descalso. Like, why would I have been saying Schwarber is old?

[David]

Homeboy is slashing .170 .279 .283 .562 over the last month, so we might be past "he's playing hurt" into "he just sucks and is old"-territory*.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*I think he's a turd player, so I MIGHT be biased.

 

If the "old" part wasn't enough to tip you off, the post right above that is a pretty solid indicator that he was talking about Danny Barefoot.

[David]

I dislike Schwarber as much as the next guy, but Vogelbach wouldn't have ever been a LF option so there's no need to bring him into this.

 

And THIS is your other example?

[squally1313]

No, no, keep going. The coolest people around here are the ones that remember every half assed prediction they made 12 months prior, and will continue to shoehorn it into their messages later on when one of them kinda comes true. Everyone loves those posts.

[muntjack]

Dude, it was completely tongue-in-cheek, and in the sixteen years I've been on here, I've very rarely come out and made any kind of statement like that. I luckily posted it right before he went on a tear that lasted the rest of the season, and tried to make an affable post out of it. I certainly didn't think I'd get attacked for it, but do what you need to do.

[muntjack]

Homeboy is slashing .170 .279 .283 .562 over the last month, so we might be past "he's playing hurt" into "he just sucks and is old"-territory*.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*I think he's a turd player, so I MIGHT be biased.

 

That was about Descalso. Like, why would I have been saying Schwarber is old?

 

 

My fault. Sometimes you have unique takes on things.

[minnesotacubsfan]

well, yea, but thats better then total group-think