"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

[jersey cubs fan]

A pinch hitter is really no different than a player being traded from a team out of contention (the bench) to a team in contention (the lineup) so really we should all expect them to get better when pinch hitting.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.

[javy knows my name]

I still think the best move is to sign Castellanos and listen to offers for Schwarber. He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.

Why can’t he pinch hit?

 

 

His track record as a PH is atrocious.

 

Significantly better than your track record as a poster

[Backtobanks]

 

That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.

 

 

Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657

 

 

Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765

 

You post this like those are good numbers.

 

 

They're way better than Schwarber's.

[Backtobanks]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

 

The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

[Backtobanks]

Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.

 

 

My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.

[Banedon]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

 

The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

 

What does that have to do with Schwarber?

[Sammy Sofa]

 

 

Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657

 

 

Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765

 

You post this like those are good numbers.

 

 

They're way better than Schwarber's.

 

THEY'RE STILL BAD NUMBERS.

 

And they're against the type of pitcher players see a lot more of, so how are you possibly seeing this as an argument in favor of keeping Castellanos and getting rid of Schwarber?

 

Schwarber in his career against righties: .239 .344 .515 .859 (1435 PA)

 

Castellanos, again, in his career against righties: .268 .315 .450 .765 (2718 PA)

 

Unless you're buying in to some kind of Hendry-like idea that you need to try and make the team better at hitting lefties, what the hell are you even talking about.

[Backtobanks]

Assuming the Cubs need to make trades to fill some of their holes, Schwarber and Caratini are the only somewhat valuable assets on the roster. I don't think any of the core 4 will be traded, so that leaves the top prospects (Amaya, Hoerner, etc.) or players on the roster.

[squally1313]

Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.

 

 

My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.

 

So now we're dropping the whole pinch hitting thing into an all encompassing "etc" huh? Telling.

 

Castellanos hits lefties better than Schwarber hits righties. Castellanos hits righties better than Schwarber hits lefties. Schwarber has been much better defensively than Castellanos. How you want to weigh all those is up to you. Also worth noting that Schwarber for the next 2 years will cost about as much as Castellnos for about 4 months.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.

 

 

My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.

 

"Besides him being good at hitting the prevelant type of pitcher in the game, he's simply not that good, you guys."

 

And Castellanos is HUGELY worse defensively. And, since you brought up the PH nonsense, as a PH he has a .250 .294 .313 .607 line.

[Cubswin11]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

 

The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

With the year he’s having I’m guessing Kendrick. gets a near everyday job somewhere next year and I don’t think we’d give it to him/hope we’d aim higher for an everyday guy as idk how much of what he’s doing is real. The goal should be to find the next 2019 Kendrick (or 2018 Descalso) on the cheap before they have a big year like this instead of paying for the guy after he has the big year that may be flukey for a bench/role spot.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Sammy Sofa]

Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?

[Sammy Sofa]

I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.

 

This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients

 

Yeah, dude is hitting for the whole package right now. Not to harp on Heyward (well, no; let's harp on him), but THERE'S the guy clearly benefiting from the juiced ball and absolutely nothing else.

[Bertz]

I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.

 

This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients

 

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

[squally1313]

I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.

 

This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients

 

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

 

Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Assuming the Cubs need to make trades to fill some of their holes, Schwarber and Caratini are the only somewhat valuable assets on the roster. I don't think any of the core 4 will be traded, so that leaves the top prospects (Amaya, Hoerner, etc.) or players on the roster.

 

Soler was traded like 3 years ago

[Bertz]

 

This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients

 

If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.

 

Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20.

 

Schwarber's HR/FB rates the last three years:

 

2017 - 24.0

2018 - 24.5

2019 - 24.1

 

Edit: For context, league wide HR/FB the last three years is 13.7, 12.7, 15.4

 

He's NOT getting the big boost from the ball. His well struck balls were always dongs, but now they are just going another 10-15 feet. Schwarber's .844 OPS this year isn't that notable because the league average is .760. But if the ball reverts, and the league average OPS goes back to last year's. 728 or (god forbid) 2014's .700, suddenly he's back to being a feared slugger.

 

Honestly I think this is the primary reason the shine is off the apple for most of our offensive core, but that's a whole other thing.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Bertz

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

 

The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

 

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[Backtobanks]

Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?

 

 

Good luck with that plan.

[Sammy Sofa]

Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?

 

 

Good luck with that plan.

 

Yes, if only we could find other examples of teams doing what needs to be done to dump bad long term contracts. SURELY IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED.

[Backtobanks]

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

 

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

 

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

 

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

 

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.

 

The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

With the year he’s having I’m guessing Kendrick. gets a near everyday job somewhere next year and I don’t think we’d give it to him/hope we’d aim higher for an everyday guy as idk how much of what he’s doing is real. The goal should be to find the next 2019 Kendrick (or 2018 Descalso) on the cheap before they have a big year like this instead of paying for the guy after he has the big year that may be flukey for a bench/role spot.

 

 

He's having a great season, but he's been really good over his whole career. IDK what he'll get in the off season, but he could get quite a few AB by filling the Zobrist role.

[Backtobanks]

Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?

 

 

Good luck with that plan.

 

Yes, if only we could find other examples of teams doing what needs to be done to dump bad long term contracts. SURELY IT HAS NEVER HAPPENED.

 

 

Except we don't need another bad contract or some nothing "prospect" plus it gives us one more hole to fill on the field.

[Sammy Sofa]

Barring the juiciness continuing, Heyward IS a already a hole to fill. The dude got a reprieve from his declining defensive value because of the power boost. Work out ye olde swap a bad long term contract for a bad short term contract that's more expensive per year and be done with it. horsefeathers the Ricketteseseseseseses' money. Either you get rid of him or relegate him as a 4th OFer.