Cubs offseason thread

[Gmoney08]

 

How protected does he really need to be vs. non-elite RHP?

 

He hit .258/.288/.401 with 4 BB and 83 K against RHP in a season where he was protected against elite RHP, he either needs to get better against them or not be considered an everyday starter against RHP.

My thinking is that if he's going to be in the starting lineup in the playoffs against RHP then he needs all the ABs he can get, and that includes against the good ones. If the Cubs are scrapping tooth and nail for the division maybe that changes things, but I'd think if they've got a solid lead Schwarber should get a lot of PAs against lefties, Baez against righties.

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

[Cubswin11]

 

He hit .258/.288/.401 with 4 BB and 83 K against RHP in a season where he was protected against elite RHP, he either needs to get better against them or not be considered an everyday starter against RHP.

My thinking is that if he's going to be in the starting lineup in the playoffs against RHP then he needs all the ABs he can get, and that includes against the good ones. If the Cubs are scrapping tooth and nail for the division maybe that changes things, but I'd think if they've got a solid lead Schwarber should get a lot of PAs against lefties, Baez against righties.

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates is horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running. He also did it with a .336 BABIP. Which with his speed isn't crazy but if he has a little worse luck that's a downright frightening slash line.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Cubswin11

[jersey cubs fan]

is rosscup a DFA candidate?

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[USSoccer]

My thinking is that if he's going to be in the starting lineup in the playoffs against RHP then he needs all the ABs he can get, and that includes against the good ones. If the Cubs are scrapping tooth and nail for the division maybe that changes things, but I'd think if they've got a solid lead Schwarber should get a lot of PAs against lefties, Baez against righties.

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

Good thing he a) has the ability to improve and b) provides immense value elsewhere to offset his growing pains even with that slash line.

[davell]

We activated Brooks and Rosscup. DFA'd Beeler, Federowicz, and Acevedo, and added Jose Rosario to the 40 man today, which sits at 34 currently.

[Gmoney08]

My thinking is that if he's going to be in the starting lineup in the playoffs against RHP then he needs all the ABs he can get, and that includes against the good ones. If the Cubs are scrapping tooth and nail for the division maybe that changes things, but I'd think if they've got a solid lead Schwarber should get a lot of PAs against lefties, Baez against righties.

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

I dont know what the slash lines of 2B and SS were this year but with Javys defense I still think he would be an average starter by putting up those stats in the MIF with that D. Its not like hes an elite LF.. he does it in 3 very demanding positions.

 

Im willing to be proven wrong but my off the hip guess is there is a lot of weak hitting MIFs right now, coupled with my opinion that Javy is by far and away the best glove at 2b right now, and elite at 3b.

[Tim]

I had some level of hope for Acevedo when we acquired him. Oh well.

[UMFan83]

We activated Brooks and Rosscup. DFA'd Beeler, Federowicz, and Acevedo, and added Jose Rosario to the 40 man today, which sits at 34 currently.

 

 

Is any of this meaningful news?

[Gmoney08]

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

I dont know what the slash lines of 2B and SS were this year but with Javys defense I still think he would be an average starter by putting up those stats in the MIF with that D. Its not like hes an elite LF.. he does it in 3 very demanding positions.

 

Im willing to be proven wrong but my off the hip guess is there is a lot of weak hitting MIFs right now, coupled with my opinion that Javy is by far and away the best glove at 2b right now, and elite at 3b.

 

10 starting SS had lower OPS with 300 ABs this year vs both hands of pitching, he would be in the low end of 2B but still better than or in the same OPS range of guys like Dee Gordon, Josh Harrison and Chase Utley.

 

& this is in a world where he only hits against righties and doesng improve.

 

With his glove he is still a value even that range, essentially the Andrelton Simmons of 2B (speaking of Andrelton his OPS is pretty much exactly what Javy in RHP only world is).

 

My bet is he will improve as well because he has been pretty damn good at consistent improvement coupled with his elite skills.

[davell]

You can dream on Rosario. He was once a relatively decently thought of SP prospect. Has had some injuries, but throws mid to upper 90's out of the pen. He likely was a goner in the Rule 5.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

Good thing he a) has the ability to improve and b) provides immense value elsewhere to offset his growing pains even with that slash line.

 

Here's a visual that might be interesting.

 

Against LHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Ian Kinsler(a near 6 win player) in the lineup.

 

Against RHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Darwin Barney(a 1.5 win player) in the lineup.

 

Could the Cubs deal with a slightly below average player at 2B against RHP to be a defensive specialist with the potential for more offensive production? Almost certainly. And I certainly expect Baez to get his share of at bats against RHP, if only because he's the primary backup at SS and 3B so any Russell/Bryant days off or any injury to Russell/Bryant/Zobrist means Javy in the lineup every day.

 

The other side is that no one has keener insight into how likely Javy is to make the necessary improvements than the Cubs, and we also know that the Cubs place a ton of value in approach at the plate. To illustrate, only about 40% of MLB hitters have a BB% of 9+, but Baez(3.3%) and Almora(4.3%) were the only Cubs(min 100 PA) out of 15 to miss that mark. So unlike, say, Soler, even if Baez improves he's still not the archetype the Cubs are hoping for, so they might be more pessimistic(and therefore more likely to trade him or plan on him not improving) than us.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

Is that slash line against righties that terrible considering his elite D and baserunning?

 

I feel like even if he doesnt improve against RHPs he still deserves a spot in that lineup and my guess is hes going to improve a bit.

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

I dont know what the slash lines of 2B and SS were this year but with Javys defense I still think he would be an average starter by putting up those stats in the MIF with that D. Its not like hes an elite LF.. he does it in 3 very demanding positions.

 

Im willing to be proven wrong but my off the hip guess is there is a lot of weak hitting MIFs right now, coupled with my opinion that Javy is by far and away the best glove at 2b right now, and elite at 3b.

 

League Avg 2B: .270/.329/.425 wRC+ 101

League Avg SS: .262/.319/.407 wRC+ 92

Javy Baez 2016: .273/.314/.423 wRC+ 94

[davell]

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

I dont know what the slash lines of 2B and SS were this year but with Javys defense I still think he would be an average starter by putting up those stats in the MIF with that D. Its not like hes an elite LF.. he does it in 3 very demanding positions.

 

Im willing to be proven wrong but my off the hip guess is there is a lot of weak hitting MIFs right now, coupled with my opinion that Javy is by far and away the best glove at 2b right now, and elite at 3b.

 

League Avg 2B: .270/.329/.425 wRC+ 101

League Avg SS: .262/.319/.407 wRC+ 92

Javy Baez 2016: .273/.314/.423 wRC+ 94

 

At 23 and with the jumps he's made from 2014 to now, these numbers are just fine, especially with the defense.

[Perd]

Just now remembered Tim Fedowhatever existed. I liked it better before that.

[USSoccer]

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running

 

Good thing he a) has the ability to improve and b) provides immense value elsewhere to offset his growing pains even with that slash line.

 

Here's a visual that might be interesting.

 

Against LHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Ian Kinsler(a near 6 win player) in the lineup.

 

Against RHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Darwin Barney(a 1.5 win player) in the lineup.

 

Could the Cubs deal with a slightly below average player at 2B against RHP to be a defensive specialist with the potential for more offensive production? Almost certainly. And I certainly expect Baez to get his share of at bats against RHP, if only because he's the primary backup at SS and 3B so any Russell/Bryant days off or any injury to Russell/Bryant/Zobrist means Javy in the lineup every day.

 

The other side is that no one has keener insight into how likely Javy is to make the necessary improvements than the Cubs, and we also know that the Cubs place a ton of value in approach at the plate. To illustrate, only about 40% of MLB hitters have a BB% of 9+, but Baez(3.3%) and Almora(4.3%) were the only Cubs(min 100 PA) out of 15 to miss that mark. So unlike, say, Soler, even if Baez improves he's still not the archetype the Cubs are hoping for, so they might be more pessimistic(and therefore more likely to trade him or plan on him not improving) than us.

 

I can't imagine a FO as smart as this one ignoring the strides he's made to conclude that he has more value to trade for some eventually-will-break pitcher.

 

I would be personally really irritated that they'd trade such a dynamic, disruptive, exciting player with a ceiling that high. Without Javy we could easily be talking about how much it sucked to get bounced by the Giants.

 

In short I hope they don't trade him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think they'll trade him, he established too high of a baseline, and in the immediate term you not only need to replace his at bats but make sure you have a capable SS since there wouldn't be any others on the roster(and none on the way with Torres gone). But if they were able to make a terrific deal involving him I don't think they'd truly shy away from it either, because it's also possible that while the baseline is high, that 2016 Baez is as close to as good as it will get.

[Cubswin11]

I wouldn't mind seeing us get in the middle of a 3-way deal like the Dodgers did with the Reds/White Sox last year to acquire young pitching. Help facilitate a larger/known MLB player trade in exchange for young pitching. Who or what that is I have no clue. Edited November 8, 2016 by Cubswin11

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I wouldn't mind seeing us get in the middle of a 3-way deal like the Dodgers did with the Reds/White Sox did last year to acquire young pitching. Help facilitate a larger/known MLB player trade in exchange for young pitching. Who or what that is I have no clue.

 

Paging backtobanks, paging backtobanks

[The_Achiever]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Well that and winning the World Series in part because of the Gleyber trade.

[Cubswin11]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Well that and winning the World Series in part because of the Gleyber trade.

I hope they at least send Torres and Vogelbach participation ribbons for their efforts on the teams success

[Ding Dong Johnson]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

he won't

[Tryptamine]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

he won't

 

Gleyber never struck me as a guy who would become a super star. I viewed him more as a solid fairly safe bet to be a guy who annually gives you 2.5-3fWAR and in his prime maybe touches 4. He really doesn't have any stand out tools. I don't think his ceiling sniffs Russell or Baez at all.

[USSoccer]

Trading Baez for some garbage MN pitcher would be not optimal.

[The_Achiever]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Well that and winning the World Series in part because of the Gleyber trade.

 

Haha right, I just tend to lump the two major bullpen trades together. I remember the Monty trade happened at the height of the media "how can they not give up Schwarber for Andrew Miller??!" And Theo was like BOOM.

 

But yes, still on a high from the Cubs being World Champs!