Cubs offseason thread

[TommyGuns15]

I can just picture Theo and Jed getting drunk and coming up with increasingly harder challenges for themselves for next season.

 

Theo: "I bet I can win without any lefties in my bullpen."

 

Jed: "Child's play, I bet we can win without a bullpen entirely. Let's make tandem starts a thing again."

 

Theo: "Oh, fun! But let's not add any SP to make that happen. Maybe make Baez and Soler learn how to pitch?"

 

Jed: "Let's go win another World Series."

 

LMFAOOO

[jehr]

Lorenzo Cain is a FA after the year, if the Royals try a mini-reset I wonder what it would take to get him for CF?

How long of a deal would he expect? I have a hard time seeing him settle for a one year deal. If I had to guess, I'd put him about a neutral-WAR guy offensively, slightly above average in CF next year. It'd have to be a team-friendly deal to get me excited...but if we could land him for a year and he platooned with Almora, I'd be okay with that. Buy us more time to see how Almora continues to develop.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

From an old MLB.com article:

 

The deadline for a club to make a qualifying offer to any of its qualifying free agents is 5 p.m. ET on the fifth day following the conclusion of the World Series.

 

So they have until Monday to offer Fowler a QO. I'm not sure how the option stuff works with deadlines, but I imagine it's similar.

 

Wasn't the rumor back when Dex signed that there was an under the table agreement that the Cubs wouldn't make him a QO in order to allow him to get a better contract? I know it breaks MLB rules, but there was more than one person who insinuated that was the case.

 

I don't recall that, but it's possible that such a rumor existed. It seems like they did enough to hedge their bets by giving him a 5 million buyout that it wouldn't be a huge concern though.

[Cubswin11]

I don't think Fowler's departure is because of the 2017 payroll, although that's getting up there. We're over $140 without any of our pending free agents or suitable veteran replacements.

 

It's about 2018 and beyond. I don't see how you're going to be able to pay him $15+ when Bryant, Russell, and Hendricks start to get expensive.

 

Montero gone. Lackey gone. Arrieta gone. Zobrist just about gone. Those first 3 will clear up about 40M.

Hammel's another $10 mil gone and a new TV deal will be coming around then too. Also, Jeffh we aren't horsefeathering poor people. We're going to be able to afford things on top of Russell/Bryant/etc won't even be making big money in 2018 or 2019 yet.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Post Count Padder]

Soler, Underwood and Steele or Sands for Cain and Davis. Who says no?

 

Also is miggy coming back as backup catcher for that much money?

 

And what about trading Hammel for a reliever after picking up his option and using Montgomery as the 5th starter and Zastryzny in a long relief role? Or signing Kurt Vonnegut as someone previously mentioned. I assume Cahill and Wood and Chapman aren't returning.

 

Just spitballing here.

[Cubswin11]

I have no interest in trading Hammel unless they are blown away by an offer. He's good, cheap for what he provides and fills an important role and moving him would really hurt our already thin SP depth.

 

We shouldn't go into the year with just Zastrynzy as our only SP depth just like we shouldn't go into the year with Javy/Almora being the guys taking the ABs that need to be taken up with losing Fowler as plan A.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Tryptamine]

Soler, Underwood and Steele or Sands for Cain and Davis. Who says no?

 

Also is miggy coming back as backup catcher for that much money?

 

And what about trading Hammel for a reliever after picking up his option and using Montgomery as the 5th starter and Zastryzny in a long relief role? Or signing Kurt Vonnegut as someone previously mentioned. I assume Cahill and Wood and Chapman aren't returning.

 

Just spitballing here.

 

As of right now I'm not sure you can trade Hammel simply based on rotation depth. Zastryzny was good in a small sample size but I don't want him pitching a full season if someone goes down long term.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think Fowler's departure is because of the 2017 payroll, although that's getting up there. We're over $140 without any of our pending free agents or suitable veteran replacements.

 

It's about 2018 and beyond. I don't see how you're going to be able to pay him $15+ when Bryant, Russell, and Hendricks start to get expensive.

 

Montero gone. Lackey gone. Arrieta gone. Zobrist just about gone. Those first 3 will clear up about 40M.

Hammel's another $10 mil gone and a new TV deal will be coming around then too. Also, Jeffh we aren't horsefeathering poor people. We're going to be able to afford things on top of Russell/Bryant/etc won't even be making big money in 2018 or 2019 yet.

 

Those 3 leaving does free up 40 million, but it also opens holes in 40% of the rotation to be filled without obvious replacements, and existing raises(5M for Lester, Arb 1 for Bryant/Russell/Hendricks) will eat away a significant chunk of it.

 

As far as how high the payroll will go, I imagine a lot will depend on the exactitudes of the CBA, but after this year's huge jump there aren't as many increases in revenue that are recurring until the TV deal reloads in 2019, and until then the luxury tax adds more weight to every dollar above 190 million. I don't see a reason they don't have at least up to the luxury tax threshold to spend to, but it's not so high that they don't want to be a little cognizant of upcoming obligations and where more pressing holes are when making a decision on Fowler. I don't expect him back.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Soler, Underwood and Steele or Sands for Cain and Davis. Who says no?

 

Also is miggy coming back as backup catcher for that much money?

 

And what about trading Hammel for a reliever after picking up his option and using Montgomery as the 5th starter and Zastryzny in a long relief role? Or signing Kurt Vonnegut as someone previously mentioned. I assume Cahill and Wood and Chapman aren't returning.

 

Just spitballing here.

http://i.giphy.com/sBy5Zbhk5xY6k.gif

[Post Count Padder]

Thata fair. My thought was because the option is cheap and the market is thin we could get a decent return and I figured they'd want Montgomery I'm the rotation.

 

Just for fun, what would a package with the Rays for Kiermeyer and Colombe or one of their non Archer starters look like?

[jehr]

Soler, Underwood and Steele or Sands for Cain and Davis. Who says no?

 

Also is miggy coming back as backup catcher for that much money?

 

And what about trading Hammel for a reliever after picking up his option and using Montgomery as the 5th starter and Zastryzny in a long relief role? Or signing Kurt Vonnegut as someone previously mentioned. I assume Cahill and Wood and Chapman aren't returning.

 

Just spitballing here.

 

As of right now I'm not sure you can trade Hammel simply based on rotation depth. Zastryzny was good in a small sample size but I don't want him pitching a full season if someone goes down long term.

Personally, I'm debating how interested I would be at going after Nova (no pick attached to him) and moving Hammel to the pen and taking Wood's swing man / long relief role. Considering how good he has been the last few years in the first half of the season before tailing off at the end, I'm thinking that might be a better role for him. Keep the innings down, and have a great long-man in the pen for the playoffs. Then you've got one less pitcher to replace the following off-season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, since we're to the spitballing offseason ideas, this was the path I had come up with. I'm still not sure if I'll like it in a few days, but when you're a team without super obvious holes and a trash FA class, that's probably inevitable.

 

- QO Fowler, let him walk

- Sign Jansen. This is going to take a lot of money, like imagine how much you think Jansen is going to cost, then add money to that. Like maybe 5/125. I will give it to him even though it costs pick #30, partially because they'll still be in the comp round thanks to Fowler

- Sign Gregor Blanco. I want a depth outfielder that 1) can play all 3 OF spots 2) fits the FO's preferences with his ability to take walks/control the zone 3) is preferably left handed. Blanco is the guy.

- Pick up Hammel's option, trade him to Detroit for Justin Wilson. Detroit needs to cut payroll but their rotation also is a sieve. This lets them fill a rotation spot without committing long term dollars, and at the cost of a disappointing reliever(who they can back fill now that Boyd doesn't have to be awful against RHP in their rotation). Wilson throws very hard for a LHP and gets back to the NL where he adds a bit more insurance to the middle relief uncertainty surrounding Strop/Rondon after the playoffs.

- Trade Candelario and a pitching prospect to the Braves for Wisler. I don't know what the Braves think of Wisler, but he fits the bill as a prospect with traits our FO likes who failed spectacularly at his first attempt at MLB. The Braves don't lack for arms, but 3B in their org is a tire fire, Candelario could quite possibly start opening day at 3B.

 

Montgomery goes to the rotation, Wisler probably goes to AAA to stay stretched out in case of injury/ineffectiveness.

 

Contreras/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell/Bryant/Schwarber/Heyward/Soler; Montero/Baez/Almora/Blanco/? (Szczur? TLS?)

 

Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Lackey/Montgomery; Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Grimm/Wilson/Rondon/Zastryzny

 

That team comes in between 180-185 million.

[jehr]

Also, since we're to the spitballing offseason ideas, this was the path I had come up with. I'm still not sure if I'll like it in a few days, but when you're a team without super obvious holes and a trash FA class, that's probably inevitable.

 

- QO Fowler, let him walk

- Sign Jansen. This is going to take a lot of money, like imagine how much you think Jansen is going to cost, then add money to that. Like maybe 5/125. I will give it to him even though it costs pick #30, partially because they'll still be in the comp round thanks to Fowler

- Sign Gregor Blanco. I want a depth outfielder that 1) can play all 3 OF spots 2) fits the FO's preferences with his ability to take walks/control the zone 3) is preferably left handed. Blanco is the guy.

- Pick up Hammel's option, trade him to Detroit for Justin Wilson. Detroit needs to cut payroll but their rotation also is a sieve. This lets them fill a rotation spot without committing long term dollars, and at the cost of a disappointing reliever(who they can back fill now that Boyd doesn't have to be awful against RHP in their rotation). Wilson throws very hard for a LHP and gets back to the NL where he adds a bit more insurance to the middle relief uncertainty surrounding Strop/Rondon after the playoffs.

- Trade Candelario and a pitching prospect to the Braves for Wisler. I don't know what the Braves think of Wisler, but he fits the bill as a prospect with traits our FO likes who failed spectacularly at his first attempt at MLB. The Braves don't lack for arms, but 3B in their org is a tire fire, Candelario could quite possibly start opening day at 3B.

 

Montgomery goes to the rotation, Wisler probably goes to AAA to stay stretched out in case of injury/ineffectiveness.

 

Contreras/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell/Bryant/Schwarber/Heyward/Soler; Montero/Baez/Almora/Blanco/? (Szczur? TLS?)

 

Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Lackey/Montgomery; Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Grimm/Wilson/Rondon/Zastryzny

 

That team comes in between 180-185 million.

5/125 for a reliever sounds nuts, but the market is thin and there's uncertainty with the CBA, so I wouldn't say impossible. I could more likely see him getting 6/100 to 6/120 though. I like Blanco, that'd be a nice pickup. I think picking him up though sets up another move. We'd have Schwarbs, Zobrist, Heyward, Almora, Szczur, Soler, and Blanco all getting OF time. Not to mention a few token OF starts by KB. That means probably two of those guys get dealt (Szczur is out of options, right?), with two of Szczur, Soler and Almora being the most likely to go. Didn't Atlanta have interest in Soler before? Maybe he's part of a Wisler deal if that panned out...

 

I don't see that pen coming to fruition. Someone else would have to move. This FO seems to like having a couple of swing guys in the pen, we'd need someone in the mold of Cahill or Wood in the middle, especially since we don't project to have any ML close options in AAA next year.

Edited November 5, 2016 by jehr

[KingCubsFan]

Also, since we're to the spitballing offseason ideas, this was the path I had come up with. I'm still not sure if I'll like it in a few days, but when you're a team without super obvious holes and a trash FA class, that's probably inevitable.

 

- QO Fowler, let him walk

- Sign Jansen. This is going to take a lot of money, like imagine how much you think Jansen is going to cost, then add money to that. Like maybe 5/125. I will give it to him even though it costs pick #30, partially because they'll still be in the comp round thanks to Fowler

- Sign Gregor Blanco. I want a depth outfielder that 1) can play all 3 OF spots 2) fits the FO's preferences with his ability to take walks/control the zone 3) is preferably left handed. Blanco is the guy.

- Pick up Hammel's option, trade him to Detroit for Justin Wilson. Detroit needs to cut payroll but their rotation also is a sieve. This lets them fill a rotation spot without committing long term dollars, and at the cost of a disappointing reliever(who they can back fill now that Boyd doesn't have to be awful against RHP in their rotation). Wilson throws very hard for a LHP and gets back to the NL where he adds a bit more insurance to the middle relief uncertainty surrounding Strop/Rondon after the playoffs.

- Trade Candelario and a pitching prospect to the Braves for Wisler. I don't know what the Braves think of Wisler, but he fits the bill as a prospect with traits our FO likes who failed spectacularly at his first attempt at MLB. The Braves don't lack for arms, but 3B in their org is a tire fire, Candelario could quite possibly start opening day at 3B.

 

Montgomery goes to the rotation, Wisler probably goes to AAA to stay stretched out in case of injury/ineffectiveness.

 

Contreras/Rizzo/Zobrist/Russell/Bryant/Schwarber/Heyward/Soler; Montero/Baez/Almora/Blanco/? (Szczur? TLS?)

 

Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Lackey/Montgomery; Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Grimm/Wilson/Rondon/Zastryzny

 

That team comes in between 180-185 million.

I like these ideas, although I'd also try and trade Strop and Rondon for cheaper, upside options. I think their best days are probably behind them at this point.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't mind seeing something like this and it should leave lots of money available for 2018 and 2019 FA or extending Bryant,Russell, etc.

 

Gone: Fowler,Ross,Chapman,Wood,Cahill,Coghlan

 

Trade Jorge Soler+Jeimer Candelario+Trevor Clifton for Jake Odorizzi(3Y) and Alex Colome(4Y)

Sign Brett Cecil 3/12

Sign Carlos Gomez 2/24 (Gambling on that he's more the Gomez from TOR and MIL than he was in HOU)

Trade Jason Hammel to Baltimore for Cody Sedlock(UofI kid with a good chance to be a middle of the rotation guy one day)

 

 

 

C:Contreras

1B:Rizzo

2B:Zobrist

3B:Bryant

SS:Russell

RF:Heyward

CF: C.Gomez

LF:Schwarber

 

Bench: Baez,Almora,Szczur,Lastella,Montero

 

SP: Lester,Hendricks,Jake,Odorizzi,Lackey(Zastryzyny in AAA in case of short term injury)

BP:Colome,Rondon,Strop,Montgomery,Edwards,Cecil,Grimm

 

2018SP: Lester,Hendricks,Odorizzi,Montgomery,(FA)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like Blanco, that'd be a nice pickup. I think picking him up though sets up another move. We'd have Schwarbs, Zobrist, Heyward, Almora, Szczur, Soler, and Blanco all getting OF time. Not to mention a few token OF starts by KB. That means probably two of those guys get dealt (Szczur is out of options, right?), with two of Szczur, Soler and Almora being the most likely to go. Didn't Atlanta have interest in Soler before? Maybe he's part of a Wisler deal if that panned out...

 

I think one is absolutely gone, and it'd be Szczur getting sold off or DFA'd. I like him fine as a 5th OF, but a good org has his equivalent always waiting in the wings, and sure enough Mark Zagunis can likely do everything Szczur can(save for play CF, which the Cubs rarely had Szczur do and is more than covered by Heyward/Almora/Blanco) and he's got options to boot.

 

After that I don't think you need to trade anyone, injuries and ineffectiveness will make things clearer. This year was an especially good illustration, Schwarber missed the whole year, Soler got less than 300 PA, if Heyward is as awful as he was offensively again he'll lose playing time, etc. By getting 5 guys who you're partially confident in for various reasons, you help ensure you always have 3 for a particular point in time. If several pan out and you have fewer days with Bryant or Zobrist in the OF, that's not a problem in my eyes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like these ideas, although I'd also try and trade Strop and Rondon for cheaper, upside options. I think their best days are probably behind them at this point.

 

Rondon is in a really interesting spot to me. For 3 years running now he's been one of the 10-15 best relievers in the game, he's got two years of team control left, and he's got experience closing. On the other hand, he had an arm injury and was terrible after it(with Maddon highlighting in red ink how much he distrusts him in the playoffs), and he's reached the spot in the post-TJS timeline where that ligament is more likely to fail again. I could see him being seen as poison by other teams, in which case you probably just hang on to him and hope an offseason of recovery does him good. However, even if teams discount his value by 50% because of the uncertainty, in a market that could see Jansen and Chapman get 9 figures that's still significant value, and if the Cubs are bearish on his health then securing one of those 9 figure guys and then sending Rondon to someone who can't play in those waters would be a smart sequence of moves.

 

Strop is a year from free agency and this year illustrates how quickly bullpen depth can dissipate, so I'm not really interested in trading him given that his return wouldn't be significant.

[Clem Fandango]

Spitballed offseason:

 

Do nothing.

 

Lineup:

C Contreras

1B Rizzo

2B Baez

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber

CF Heyward

RF Zobrist

 

Bench:

OF Soler

C Montero

OF Almora

IF LaStella

OF Szczur

 

Rotation

Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey, Hammel

 

Bullpen

Montgomery, Zastryzny, Grimm, Edwards, Jr., Strop, Rondon

 

Rotating 25th man

IF Candelario

OF Zagunis

RP Farris

RP Rivero

 

Move Baez and Zobrist around to facilitate rest. Heyward splits time between CF and Rf, Zobrist splits time between RF and 2B. Javy splits time between 2B and 3B, Bryant gets some LF time. Zas fills Wood's role. Rotate out the 25th man as needed.

 

Also, this is mostly tongue in cheek, but I just wanted to show how doing nothing still yields a World Series contender because that's how horsefeathering good this team is constructed.

[jehr]

Also, this is mostly tongue in cheek, but I just wanted to show how doing nothing still yields a World Series contender because that's how horsefeathering good this team is constructed.

 

That does make you wonder how much tinkering we really want to do this off season. It almost seems like it would be easy to take a step backwards by over-tinkering if we're not careful. I definitely don't see us making too many moves. I'm thinking the priorities this offseason go 1) closer, 2) 1 or 2 middle-relief options, at least one of which can serve as a spot-starter/swing man, 3) backup OFer who can play any OF position. Unless they're pissed at Montero (in which case add 4) backup catcher), I don't see them doing much more than that, unless they find a surprising, willing trade partner for a blockbuster on an elite, controllable starting pitcher.

[davell]

My off season wish list would be to keep Dex at 4/64. Trade Soler for Colome. Trade Candelario for Wisler. Move Hammel for whatever the best pen arm you can get for him. Sign Greg Holland. Sign the Gourriel kid, if he's looking good. Payroll stays in a safe range for the arb raises that'll hit in a couple years. Still gives us flexibility and even keeps our picks and adds to the farm a bit.

 

Gourriel may be a stretch, since he'd see youngsters playing ahead of him already at the ML level.

[jehr]

My off season wish list would be to keep Dex at 4/64. Trade Soler for Colome. Trade Candelario for Wisler. Move Hammel for whatever the best pen arm you can get for him. Sign Greg Holland. Sign the Gourriel kid, if he's looking good. Payroll stays in a safe range for the arb raises that'll hit in a couple years. Still gives us flexibility and even keeps our picks and adds to the farm a bit.

 

Gourriel may be a stretch, since he'd see youngsters playing ahead of him already at the ML level.

Re: Gurriel... Given our recent success with developing ML hitters... I wonder if that gives us any advantage signing the higher-end Intl free agents. Even if they're blocked, someone will get hurt, moved or tail off somewhere at some point.

[davell]

My off season wish list would be to keep Dex at 4/64. Trade Soler for Colome. Trade Candelario for Wisler. Move Hammel for whatever the best pen arm you can get for him. Sign Greg Holland. Sign the Gourriel kid, if he's looking good. Payroll stays in a safe range for the arb raises that'll hit in a couple years. Still gives us flexibility and even keeps our picks and adds to the farm a bit.

 

Gourriel may be a stretch, since he'd see youngsters playing ahead of him already at the ML level.

Re: Gurriel... Given our recent success with developing ML hitters... I wonder if that gives us any advantage signing the higher-end Intl free agents. Even if they're blocked, someone will get hurt, moved or tail off somewhere at some point.

 

We're a premiere destination right now. The youngsters see how well our youngsters have developed, so that HAS to be a selling point on some level. And while we no longer have the allure of "Hey, come help us end the curse" anymore, now we've got "you want a ring, we're the best chance for you" card to play. On top of playing at a historic stadium, for an awesome manager, and all the other selling points we've got now lol.

[Clem Fandango]

Also, this is mostly tongue in cheek, but I just wanted to show how doing nothing still yields a World Series contender because that's how horsefeathering good this team is constructed.

 

That does make you wonder how much tinkering we really want to do this off season. It almost seems like it would be easy to take a step backwards by over-tinkering if we're not careful. I definitely don't see us making too many moves. I'm thinking the priorities this offseason go 1) closer, 2) 1 or 2 middle-relief options, at least one of which can serve as a spot-starter/swing man, 3) backup OFer who can play any OF position. Unless they're pissed at Montero (in which case add 4) backup catcher), I don't see them doing much more than that, unless they find a surprising, willing trade partner for a blockbuster on an elite, controllable starting pitcher.

 

Yeah, real talk I want Jansen badly. I don't know how much I trust Rondon. Perhaps an offseason of rest will recharge his batteries but he was completely unreliable for the last 2 months. And we definitely need another reliever on top of someone like Jansen. As much as I liked what Zastryzny did for us we need that bullpen depth and while Farris and Rivero's numbers are promising, I wouldn't feel comfortable bringing them in in the middle of a playoff game.

 

As for other proper relievers I like Cecil as Tim mentioned. I'd suggest Storen but I get the vibe he wants to be closer and is a bit of an ass about it and he seems to have trouble succeeding outside of that role.

 

I like Cashner in the starter turned reliever reclamation role. And for minor league depth maybe get Cory Luebke or Brandon Beachy on cheap minor league contracts and try and nurse them back to efficiency?

 

And if we go out and replace Dex, give me Carlos Gomez please.

[bearjuice]

Why are we trying to 'save' at this point? Resign Dexter, resign Chapman, and sign Jansen. Could you imagine Jansen and Chapman both there to close games in the 2017 playoffs? Why can't we have both?

[Cubswin11]

Why are we trying to 'save' at this point? Resign Dexter, resign Chapman, and sign Jansen. Could you imagine Jansen and Chapman both there to close games in the 2017 playoffs? Why can't we have both?

I like the cut of your jib