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Posted
Is he available when FA opens or are there other dates for guys like him? Is there a set window from when he’s available until he has to decide or is it like regular FA?
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Posted
Is he available when FA opens or are there other dates for guys like him? Is there a set window from when he’s available until he has to decide or is it like regular FA?

 

He needs to be posted, which means everyone in the world will bid the max of 20 million, and then he'll basically have FA negotiations even though his contract will be subject to IFA rules. Otani will have 30 days after being posted to agree to terms with someone.

 

We have two examples that have been under the CBA with the 20 million cap, Tanaka and Maeda. Tanaka was posted on 12/26 and signed 1/23, and Maeda was posted on 12/10 and signed on 1/7. Given that type of timeline, and that the team signing Otani isn't going to have to pay out a bunch of cash(20 million means little to the real suitors and doesn't count towards the luxury tax), I would expect everyone to treat their offseasons(GM meetings, winter meetings) as if they aren't getting Otani, and let him be a happy bonus if he chooses them. If Nippon posts him much earlier, then that changes things.

 

EDIT: Thinking on this a little more, I wouldn't be surprised if Otani has a smaller gap from posting date to signing. The others strung things out to try and get a maximum offer, but Otani can't do that.

Posted
Love to get the guy, but unlike us, NYY is not in the international penalty box at the moment, no? Especially considering their prior history with Japanese imports, I'll be shocked if NYY doesn't wind up with Otani ...
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

This is a positive step towards some sort of resolution to get him over here this year, you'd assume, since the the article I posted above last week casted serious doubt.

Posted
Guess its at least worth noting that CAA has offices in New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, in the US. (And Jacksonville for some reason)
Posted
What's preventing Otani from negotiating a deal with a player opt-out after one year? The MLB presumably can't hammer the team if it's the player that insisted on it.
Posted

International signing money can be traded, right? Nothing stopping the Cubs (or anyone else) from trading for chunks of, say, Minnesota’s or Miami’s pool, right?

 

It’s probably a new enough phenomena that there’s no real basis to figure out what that money is worth. No way of knowing how much an Ian Happ, for example, would be worth in international cap money.

Posted
International signing money can be traded, right? Nothing stopping the Cubs (or anyone else) from trading for chunks of, say, Minnesota’s or Miami’s pool, right?

 

It’s probably a new enough phenomena that there’s no real basis to figure out what that money is worth. No way of knowing how much an Ian Happ, for example, would be worth in international cap money.

It can be traded but if you are in the penalty box the individual limits you can spend up to on players still apply

Posted

What about a sort of NBA-style sign and trade?

 

Say Otani decides he wants to play for the Cubs. He signs a contract with the Twins for the max amount that he can and then the Twins trade him to the Cubs for whatever pre-agreed upon prospects. That would be possible (incredibly unlikely, but possible) under the CBA, right?

 

The weird thing about this whole process is that it would benefit the League to get the best baseball players in the world to play in the MLB and this new CBA seems designed to limit that from happening until they turn 25 years old.

Posted
What about a sort of NBA-style sign and trade?

 

Say Otani decides he wants to play for the Cubs. He signs a contract with the Twins for the max amount that he can and then the Twins trade him to the Cubs for whatever pre-agreed upon prospects. That would be possible (incredibly unlikely, but possible) under the CBA, right?

 

The weird thing about this whole process is that it would benefit the League to get the best baseball players in the world to play in the MLB and this new CBA seems designed to limit that from happening until they turn 25 years old.

You couldn’t do that. MLB doesn’t allow sign and trades, newly signed guys can’t be moved until sometime in May or June I believe.

Posted

I guess my last question then is how did the rest of Baseball allow for a CBA to get passed that virtually assured that the best International pitching prospect in a generation would be a New York Yankee?

 

There isn’t this problem if they’d done something like phased in the cap over a three year period.

Posted
I guess my last question then is how did the rest of Baseball allow for a CBA to get passed that virtually assured that the best International pitching prospect in a generation would be a New York Yankee?

 

There isn’t this problem if they’d done something like phased in the cap over a three year period.

 

I imagine that the conventional wisdom was(and still might come true) that Otani wasn't going to pass up the opportunity at 9 figures just to come over for 2018 instead of 2019.

Posted
The weird thing about this whole process is that it would benefit the League to get the best baseball players in the world to play in the MLB and this new CBA seems designed to limit that from happening until they turn 25 years old.

 

They have one motivation here, cost control.

 

There is no real threat to major league baseball on a global basis. They aren't contending with other leagues for baseball talent. They have had healthy growth for years, and aren't in any sort of near-term risk to losing money because Japanese guys come over at 25 years old.

Posted
Joel Sherman says MLB and NPB agreed to grandfather the existing but now expired Posting agreement for Otani: http://nypost.com/2017/11/08/mlb-has-tentative-shohei-otani-agreement-with-one-hurdle-left/

This is bad for us.

 

not if you go with the whole "how much could he possibly care about money if he's coming this year" idea

 

passing up on potentially hundreds of millions of dollars basically in the name of going after a challenge a couple of years sooner has to say something about him, right? right?!

Posted
Joel Sherman says MLB and NPB agreed to grandfather the existing but now expired Posting agreement for Otani: http://nypost.com/2017/11/08/mlb-has-tentative-shohei-otani-agreement-with-one-hurdle-left/

This is bad for us.

 

not if you go with the whole "how much could he possibly care about money if he's coming this year" idea

 

passing up on potentially hundreds of millions of dollars basically in the name of going after a challenge a couple of years sooner has to say something about him, right? right?!

Also he wants to hit, nobody is really going to let him play a position to hit on days he's not pitching. His best chance of getting to hit is as a pitcher in the NL, at least right away (once he's over here and gets real game experience if he really is that good then down the road you maybe let him play the OF here and there but that doesn't seem likely) so the fact he already doesn't care about the money and the teams that can offer the most are all AL teams has to matter a bit too that he'd pass them up for a NL team.

Posted
I don't see why an AL team wouldn't let him DH at least part time.

 

yeah, if anything, (assuming he displayed competence) that would seem like an easier path for him to get some ABs somewhat regularly

Posted
I guess that's true. I'm looking at this through Cubs shaded glasses, but I guess I see our selling point is you can come here and do what we think you are best at (pitch) in those games you pitch you will get 2-4 PAs, it's the best way to ease you in with hitting while you likely have a learning curve at pitching in a new league based on those PAs we could grow to give you to PH appearances and down the road as you get more comfortable with pitching we can look at giving you positional starts but this is the best path to overall development and reaching your goals/dreams of being a 2-way player. Plus we have probably the best manager in MLB with moving guys around/positional versatility, culture, etc. Basically we don't want you to fail because you have to focus so much on two things, lets ease you in and promise to grow you from there.

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