Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

[David]

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[Cubswin11]

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Maybe it's just because I want it to be the other way and want to believe Passan over him.... But it seems like Passan is usually a lot more tuned in to this kind of stuff than Rosenthal is. Rosenthal seems more like a lip service, breaking major league signings/trades. Passan seems to have better info on amateurs/inner workings of MLB.*

 

 

*I have no evidence to back this up

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[tweet]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

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[David]

MLB is so horsefeathering dumb

[Rex Buckingham]

MLB is so horsefeathering dumb

 

Seriously, they may have screwed themselves out of some of the best years of the biggest international star since Ichiro.

[David]

Oh oh, will they or woooon't they? Today they won't! Yesterday they were going to do it! Tomorrow will be the newest day yet!

 

The Tweet TT posted looks pretty damn definitive.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB is so horsefeathering dumb

 

Very shortsighted.

[davell]

Couple of thoughts......1) Does the NPB/MLB arrangement now have to be reworked as well? I'm assuming so. If it doesn't change, then his team would STILL get the 20 mill posting fee and could conceivably see if Otani is willing to just come over for 10 mill(max slot plus trading for most slot possible)....Of course, we'd be fucked, not being able to spend next year. Unfortunately, I think the Yankees and Red Sox can......Which would be unbelievably fortunate for them.....

 

In trying to come up with loopholes......Possible to get his team to sign him to long term megadeal and transfer it to major league team off the books? Unprecedented, but not sure it'd be illegal, based on language. It'd be cleaned up immediately, if its not though, as it could make life very easy on teams trying to avoid the luxury tax....

[CP_414]

Are the Cubs still in the IFA penalty next year which would limit them to no player over 300k?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Are the Cubs still in the IFA penalty next year which would limit them to no player over 300k?

 

I didn't verify, but I saw a tweet yesterday that said their pool is 4.75 million and that they can't sign anyone over 300k.

[CP_414]

Are the Cubs still in the IFA penalty next year which would limit them to no player over 300k?

 

I didn't verify, but I saw a tweet yesterday that said their pool is 4.75 million and that they can't sign anyone over 300k.

 

Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k.

 

Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid.

[Thrilho]

Are the Cubs still in the IFA penalty next year which would limit them to no player over 300k?

 

I didn't verify, but I saw a tweet yesterday that said their pool is 4.75 million and that they can't sign anyone over 300k.

 

Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k.

 

Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid.

If he comes over there's going to be more to it than just the $300K or $6M. Some kind of craziness with an extension or him doing a one year thing. Won't be a long term deal of $6M. And if they are able to work out some kind of extension then $300K vs $6M doesn't seem like it would be any kind of insurmountable thing for a guy who's made some money in Japan.

 

Personally I'm counting out nothing. I have nothing to back this up but I doubt he has to wait til 2019 to come over. Guessing it's just MLB negotiating with NPB of union through the media.

[Thrilho]

Or looking at it from Otani's perspective, his options look something like:

 

1. Play in NPB until post 2019 years for a team that has no concern for his long term well being

2. Come over in 2018 on a 1 year deal for 300K-6M with ability renegotiate before 2019

3. Come over in 2018 with some kind of extension, where the team has control of 2018, 2019 + however long. This team can then average in the dollars over those first 2 seasons. So he can probably get a long deal with those two years being paid at 25-30 mil a piece

 

If I'm Otani that first option looks by far least desirable. So seems like he'd be motivated to figure out some way into one of the second two. Could be an extra $60 mil in that third one and maybe $30 mil in that second one. Plus, he's a pitcher. That payday in 2020 is not guaranteed.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Thrilho

[CP_414]

 

I didn't verify, but I saw a tweet yesterday that said their pool is 4.75 million and that they can't sign anyone over 300k.

 

Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k.

 

Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid.

If he comes over there's going to be more to it than just the $300K or $6M. Some kind of craziness with an extension or him doing a one year thing. Won't be a long term deal of $6M. And if they are able to work out some kind of extension then $300K vs $6M doesn't seem like it would be any kind of insurmountable thing for a guy who's made some money in Japan.

 

Personally I'm counting out nothing. I have nothing to back this up but I doubt he has to wait til 2019 to come over. Guessing it's just MLB negotiating with NPB of union through the media.

 

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception.

 

Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract.

 

The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA.

 

Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

[Thrilho]

 

Thanks. So there is zero possibility Otani is a Cub in 2018 without a CBA rule change. If for whatever reason he elects to come over and play for the CBA allowed maximum signing bonus he won't be going to the Cubs for 300k.

 

Either he waits until 2019, they make a rule change, or the Cubs can't bid.

If he comes over there's going to be more to it than just the $300K or $6M. Some kind of craziness with an extension or him doing a one year thing. Won't be a long term deal of $6M. And if they are able to work out some kind of extension then $300K vs $6M doesn't seem like it would be any kind of insurmountable thing for a guy who's made some money in Japan.

 

Personally I'm counting out nothing. I have nothing to back this up but I doubt he has to wait til 2019 to come over. Guessing it's just MLB negotiating with NPB of union through the media.

 

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception.

 

Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract.

 

The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA.

 

Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

[CP_414]

If he comes over there's going to be more to it than just the $300K or $6M. Some kind of craziness with an extension or him doing a one year thing. Won't be a long term deal of $6M. And if they are able to work out some kind of extension then $300K vs $6M doesn't seem like it would be any kind of insurmountable thing for a guy who's made some money in Japan.

 

Personally I'm counting out nothing. I have nothing to back this up but I doubt he has to wait til 2019 to come over. Guessing it's just MLB negotiating with NPB of union through the media.

 

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception.

 

Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract.

 

The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA.

 

Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

[David]

 

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception.

 

Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract.

 

The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA.

 

Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

 

Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA?

[CP_414]

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

 

Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA?

 

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

[David]

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

 

Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA?

 

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

 

2 year penalty (as opposed to one year)?

 

Is that because we went over a second time in 2015-16?

[Thrilho]

 

Passan had a new article today that said there will not be an Otani exception.

 

Under the current rules all they can do is give him the max IFA money and then free agency after a year built into the contract.

 

The Cubs can only offer 300k next year in that scenario. Another team could give him close to 10 million and then an opt in to FA.

 

Maybe that changes, but for now the Cubs are out on him until at a minimum the 2019 season.

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

What I'm saying is only being able to offer $300K doesn't make them 100% out. If loopholes in the CBA allow for an extension to be tacked on then $300K vs $6M on the one year portion makes relatively little difference.

[CP_414]

 

Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA?

 

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

 

2 year penalty (as opposed to one year)?

 

Is that because we went over a second time in 2015-16?

 

In the old CBA the 2 year penalty was for going over by more than 15%. This was year 1 for the Cubs penalty, so it applies to next IFA year, too.

[CP_414]

I'll stick with the way I think about it. Unsigned deals on the CBA and NPB, along with Otani's unclear motivations leave anything up for grabs. Not counting on him the way I was but to say "Cubs are out" for sure based on what MLB is current telling Passan seems pessimistic.

 

I said Cubs are out "until 2019 at the earliest, unless something changes." It's just a statement of a fact. Not pessimistic. Under the new CBA the Cubs are limited to a 300k bonus for him while other teams can offer nearly $10 million. Any team can give him a 1 year opt out to free agency to get him to come over.

 

Hopefully something changes. Under the current rules however, he won't be a Cub in 2018.

What I'm saying is only being able to offer $300K doesn't make them 100% out. If loopholes in the CBA allow for an extension to be tacked on then $300K vs $6M on the one year portion makes relatively little difference.

 

Unless Otani is a really really trusting guy, I doubt that's an option. The extension would need to be immediate and I don't see how that's allowed. It's the same as giving a $200 million bonus.

 

The loophole I'd be curious about is if IFA signees can be traded immediately. If so, maybe you work out a sign and trade with Otani getting the FA opt out after 1 year.

 

I think easily the most likely scenario is that he dominates in his home country until he's 25 and then comes over knowing he's getting $200 million+. Any other option requires him to take on major risk.

[davell]

 

Why are the Cubs limited to a 300k bonus next year under the new CBA?

 

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

 

2 year penalty (as opposed to one year)?

 

Is that because we went over a second time in 2015-16?

 

Nope. We took advantage and only got a one year penalty(Rangers too) before it turned into a 2 year penalty. Once it did though, the teams just looked at it as (need 3+ years talent in order for it to be worth it) and just overspent by even more......

 

Just a stupid system.

[David]

 

My understanding is that the 2 year penalty for going over the "limit" that was in place with the old CBA carries over to this CBA. So they'll have the roughly 4.75 mil pool of money to spend, but can't go over 300k on any 1 player next year.

 

2 year penalty (as opposed to one year)?

 

Is that because we went over a second time in 2015-16?

 

Nope. We took advantage and only got a one year penalty(Rangers too) before it turned into a 2 year penalty. Once it did though, the teams just looked at it as (need 3+ years talent in order for it to be worth it) and just overspent by even more......

 

Just a stupid system.

Ok I totally missed or forgot about it becoming a 2 year penalty.