Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

[Regular Show]

Gilby wrote:

I'm not gonna pretend to know a lot about the guy, but I have to believe there's gonna be multiple AL teams willing to promise him DH AB's vs righties. I can't imagine Maddon would be allowed to play him in the outfield.

 

Of course Maddon will be allowed to use him in the outfield. Why wouldn't he be? He's used Travis Wood in the outfield (albeit in an extra inning game) and Maddon likes having versatile players.

 

If the money is about the same and the decisive factor is seeing some time as position player in-between starts, well, I'm okay with letting Otani get some starts in LF/RF. Obviously, some PH opportunities as well. I don't know exactly how well his bat will translate at the MLB level, but he has some amazing bat speed. The hitting is all secondary though, like an added bonus. It's the ability to dominate as a SP that makes him special.

[Gilby]

Gilby wrote:

I'm not gonna pretend to know a lot about the guy, but I have to believe there's gonna be multiple AL teams willing to promise him DH AB's vs righties. I can't imagine Maddon would be allowed to play him in the outfield.

 

Of course Maddon will be allowed to use him in the outfield. Why wouldn't he be? He's used Travis Wood in the outfield (albeit in an extra inning game) and Maddon likes having versatile players.

 

Ehh, using your LOOGY on a one year deal in the outfield is way different than one of your best starting pitchers whom you just committed over $200 million to.

 

I just don't think we'd promise him anymore AB's other than pinch hitting and the few AB's he gets on the days he pitches. Just feels like an AL team would be better suited for a situation like this if he demands to be a hitter too, but what do I know.

[Regular Show]

Gilby wrote[/font]:

Ehh, using your LOOGY on a one year deal in the outfield is way different than one of your best starting pitchers whom you just committed over $200 million to.

 

I just don't think we'd promise him anymore AB's other than pinch hitting and the few AB's he gets on the days he pitches. Just feels like an AL team would be better suited for a situation like this if he demands to be a hitter too, but what do I know.

 

I get that some AL teams would be able to use him as a DH, but then again some AL teams have prominent DHs like D. Ortiz for Boston. You wouldn't want to guarantee ABs at DH for a pitcher (kinda insulting) when you have better, experienced hitters on your roster. Now, if he ends hitting really well then I'm sure everyone would be okay with playing him at DH.

 

Another problem with allowing him to hit on days he pitches in the AL is that you lose the right to have a DH on those days. Same thing happened when B. Bochy allowed M. Bumgarner to hit for himself in an interleague game. That puts you at a disadvantage in the later innings (and maybe even in the early-mid innings) when you pull your starting pitcher.

 

It'll be fascinating either way. I'm excited to see what he could do over here and hope he can be a successful two-way player unlike anything we've ever seen before...as a Cubs player of course :beg:

[CubinNY]

Gilby wrote:

I'm not gonna pretend to know a lot about the guy, but I have to believe there's gonna be multiple AL teams willing to promise him DH AB's vs righties. I can't imagine Maddon would be allowed to play him in the outfield.

 

Of course Maddon will be allowed to use him in the outfield. Why wouldn't he be? He's used Travis Wood in the outfield (albeit in an extra inning game) and Maddon likes having versatile players.

 

If the money is about the same and the decisive factor is seeing some time as position player in-between starts, well, I'm okay with letting Otani get some starts in LF/RF. Obviously, some PH opportunities as well. I don't know exactly how well his bat will translate at the MLB level, but he has some amazing bat speed. The hitting is all secondary though, like an added bonus. It's the ability to dominate as a SP that makes him special.

The Cubs are not going to invest multiple millions of dollars on a pitcher and let him massage his ego by playing him in the outfield on non-pitching days. He will likely be used in a handful pinch hitting duties like other pitchers who can hit. But really, no team is going to let him play a position regularly on non-pitching days.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I thought RS was kidding around; no team that's going to be able to invest the money it's going to take to sign him is going to risk that by letting him play the OF and hit regularly. Hell, they wouldn't even use as much as you've seen guys like Wood or Marquis pinch-run or hit or even rarely play the field.

[Regular Show]

Again, read what I wrote earlier...I said if the money is close and the decisive factor is allowing him to play in the OF in-between starts -- then yeah, I'm okay with that if it means he'll sign with us over the Dodgers or Yankees or Rangers. We have a creative manager and like to move players around. Again, we highly value versatility.

 

Of course, you run the danger that he hurts himself playing in the OF, but pitchers get hurt in all kinds of ways (M. Stroman, M. Rivera, A. Wainwright) and you can't protect them from getting hurt on the field. I would want to make sure he can properly play the OF and take good routes, avoid collisions, get good jumps, etc. He would only play occasionally as well (probably not after days he starts).

 

This is all pure speculation btw. We have to see what he wants when he decides to come over. I would prefer signing him as a pitcher who hopefully hits extremely well and can be used as a PH occasionally.

[Regular Show]

Again, read what I wrote earlier...I said if the money is close and the decisive factor is allowing him to play in the OF in-between starts -- then yeah, I'm okay with that if it means he'll sign with us over the Dodgers or Yankees or Rangers. We have a creative manager and like to move players around. Again, we highly value versatility.

 

Of course, you run the danger that he hurts himself playing in the OF, but pitchers get hurt in all kinds of ways (M. Stroman, M. Rivera, A. Wainwright) and you can't protect them from getting hurt on the field. I would want to make sure he can properly play the OF and take good routes, avoid collisions, get good jumps, etc. He would only play occasionally as well (probably not after days he starts).

 

This is all pure speculation btw. We have to see what he wants when he decides to come over. I would prefer signing him as a pitcher who hopefully hits extremely well and can be used as a PH occasionally.

[Sammy Sofa]

He'd have to be pretty ridonkulous as a hitter to get any team to be willing to risk a pitcher that way. Basically, willingness to be creative with the lineup isn't the key factor here; money is. His value overwhelmingly comes from how well he pitches, and no team is going to risk losing that because of some stupid, easily avoidable injury letting the guy play LF when the reality is as a hitter in the US he's almost certainly just going to be "a good hitter for a pitcher."

[David]

He'd have to be pretty ridonkulous as a hitter to get any team to be willing to risk a pitcher that way. Basically, willingness to be creative with the lineup isn't the key factor here; money is. His value overwhelmingly comes from how well he pitches, and no team is going to risk losing that because of some stupid, easily avoidable injury letting the guy play LF when the reality is as a hitter in the US he's almost certainly just going to be "a good hitter for a pitcher."

 

He kinda is pretty ridonkulous as a hitter...just not as insanely ridinkulous as he is as a pitcher.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-good-is-shohei-otani/

 

As per Otani, he currently ranks as NPB’s fourth-best hitter. In terms of distance from the mean, that suggests Otani is something like the Edwin Encarnacion or Anthony Rizzo of NPB: clearly not the best hitter in the talent pool, although clearly in the conversation of the upper-most edifice.

 

With the NPB reliance on “gaijin” for offense, it’s interesting to note that none of the five most talented offensive players at current are foreign-born. Wladimir Balentien is narrowly missing that arbitrary cut (sixth). He’s mounting an impressive-enough 2016 campaign, but 2015 was a lost season and his current production is a meaningful come-down from his 2014 (and yes, differing league levels of offense are being considered in such a statement, although for the years of 2014 and 2016, it so happens offensive environments are highly similar anyhow).

 

Finally, while we’d generally avoid the topic of translations for the reasons discussed, it would be a shame to at least not provide some food for thought.

 

Taking a long-term forecast for Otani, until his theoretical offensive and pitching peaks, and translating that expectation to MLB… where would we estimate peak-Otani would lie within the MLB talent spectrum, given the information and performance data we have to date?

 

We’ll translate his peak projection to MLB terms, and map that onto the current MLB offensive and SP talent spectrums shown above.

 

First, on offense:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OtaniForecast1.png

 

And as a starter:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OtaniForecast2.png

 

It does not seem out of line to suggest Otani could be an MLB All-Star on both sides of the ball. This is more distinctly true on the pitching side than it is as a position player, where he could legitimately be a frontline starter. But Otani now also looks like he could be one of the best hitters in baseball if he focused his energy on that side of the ball. Of course, the more interesting question is what he could do in the big leagues if he didn’t have to choose, and whether he might really be a potential two-way superstar in MLB. Based on what he’s doing this year, the question isn’t as absurd as it might sound.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, if he focused on that part of his game and basically became a hitter instead of a pitcher; as it stands, I don't look at a pitcher hitting great in the Japanese leagues as being likely to translate that to the MLB in terms of him being SO good that a team would be willing to risk putting an amazing starting pitcher into the lineup as a fielder so he could hit. It seems silly to think this guy being a real life Steve Nebraska in the MLB is realistic in any way.

[Sammy Sofa]

Look at it this way: we're talking about them doing something unprecedented for this guy. That doesn't seem too likely.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

No, but of all the teams in MLB, the Cubs can pitch the most appealing offer, I would think. He can hit on the days that he starts and then you have a manager like Joe who has pinch hit his better hitting pitchers ahead of position players left on the bench in come cases, and even played his pitchers in the field. Sign with the Cubs and Joe Maddon and you never know how many ABs you will get, Shohei!

[Sammy Sofa]

NL better get the DH quick.

[Clem Fandango]

Find the middle ground... Shohei Otani - Left Fielder & Closer

[Regular Show]

I don't know when he'll be posted, but we need this guy. I don't care how we use him, but he is simply amazing to watch...

 

Another good article on the incredible Shohei Otani:

 

https://theringer.com/the-postseasons-true-revelation-is-a-two-way-mystery-man-3e2e8585e6ba#.9ykak7ta1

[doublebubble]

I don't know when he'll be posted, but we need this guy. I don't care how we use him, but he is simply amazing to watch...

 

Another good article on the incredible Shohei Otani:

 

https://theringer.com/the-postseasons-true-revelation-is-a-two-way-mystery-man-3e2e8585e6ba#.9ykak7ta1

 

 

https://www.japantoday.com/category/sports/view/carp-beat-fighters-to-take-game-1-of-japan-series

[Tryptamine]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.

 

I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.

[Tryptamine]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.

 

I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.

 

The Koreans and the Cubans are in professional leagues, would they be exempt as well? It seems like a giant waste of time if the international draft isn't even going to cover all international players. I really wish they'd just leave it alone and let the players keep getting paid what they're worth.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't he pretty much have to come over after this season? If the CBA institutes an international draft in 2018 he stands to lose an enormous amount of money should he not make the move before then. I'm all for throwing Jake's money at Otani.

 

I would be very surprised if an International Draft applied to NPB players. The current bonus pools do not, and the reasoning(IFA's are not yet professionals, NPB players are) is the same if you go from pools to a draft for IFA's. The posting/FA system could change again, but that would almost certainly be independent of an IFA draft.

 

The Koreans and the Cubans are in professional leagues, would they be exempt as well? It seems like a giant waste of time if the international draft isn't even going to cover all international players. I really wish they'd just leave it alone and let the players keep getting paid what they're worth.

 

Yes? My understanding is that the purpose of the international draft is to add fairness(read: curb spending) on the 16 year old IFAs, not to act as a catch all for any player who isn't drafted in the stateside draft. With the Cubans there's been some flip flopping on whether they qualify, but that ambiguity has never extended to Asian countries, most especially NPB.

[Cubswin11]

I saw earlier today, can't find the article now, but an anonymous scout/FO guy said he thinks Otani is getting a $300 million deal when he comes..... I guess in a market where guys think Nova is getting $100+ million you could make sense of it but I don't see it.

 

Edit:

 

Here's the quote and article

 

“I actually think the guy might get a $300 million deal,” said a scout who has had multiple looks at the righty pitcher/lefty hitter. “That is how special a talent he is. He has power No. 1 starter stuff. He is throwing 99 [mph] in the eighth inning. His secondary stuff is unhittable. He is big and loose. His fastball is electric and his curve, cutter and split are all 70s [on the 20-80 scouting scale].

 

“And I think he is getting better as a hitter. I think an American hitting coach teaches him to turn on the ball more and he can be a 45-homer guy. He has Darryl Strawberry power. He is the face of a franchise. He is a big, handsome guy and when he plays baseball you cannot take your eyes off of him.”

 

http://nypost.com/2016/11/09/meet-baseballs-next-big-thing-a-babe-ruth-pitcherslugger-who-may-get-300m/

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is an extremely thorough article on Otani, both on his abilities as a pitcher and hitter, as well as the possibility of him coming stateside: https://dodgersdigest.com/2016/11/02/its-finally-time-to-talk-about-shohei-otani/

 

The short version of the author's conclusion:

 

- Otani is a #2 starter in MLB today with the potential to be a true ace

- His bat might be exploitable in MLB but he wouldn't embarrass himself

- He hasn't played defense in multiple years and might be bad in the OF because of it

- There are reasons/precedent that Otani could be posted as soon as this year, although the entirety of the evidence points towards him not being posted yet

[David]

here he is taking jair jurrjens very deep

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/piklr/status/797397373693501440[/tweet]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

let's see what he can do with a real ball. and a real pitcher.

[Cubswin11]

How do his offensive numbers compare to Matsui, Fukudome, etc?