Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Right, but even if they know what's up, you still have the situation where one party has to take a leap of faith, lest Otani be trapped at prospect salaries or he leaves after a year with a team paying 25 million for the privilege.

[Thrilho]

Right, but even if they know what's up, you still have the situation where one party has to take a leap of faith, lest Otani be trapped at prospect salaries or he leaves after a year with a team paying 25 million for the privilege.

This sort of thing doesn't really happen, but the game theory behind it makes it a fun subject. What if the team signed him to a deal through 2019 for that $6 mil with the agreement to extend him for however long and at whatever money where the AAV including those first 3 years is agreeable to both parties. Say you tack on another 7 years at $300M or something.

 

Then if the team doesn't hold their side of the bargain he just "retires" to Japan until the contract is up in 2019.

 

In this case:

- The team risks the $25M but knows Otani is motivated to come over and unable to negotiate with another team until post-2019

- Otani has the leverage to go back home if he wants until his regularly scheduled FA period if the team doesn't give him the extension

 

It seems like Otani is still in an inferior bargaining position here, but it's not much. If they have the terms agreed to before signing the first contract the team would really be playing with fire trying to pull a contract switcheroo.

 

Anyone know if it would be possible for Otani to bail on an MLB contract and try to reinstate once it's up?

Edited December 1, 2016 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

Also, if it's too far fetched that they'd have a fully agreed contract extension before signing the $6M deal they could just come up with a framework. It could be tough to solicit bids from tons of teams on a shadowy bargained loop hole contract extension. But if he had an idea that there was one particular team that was exceedingly attractive due to funds, marketing, team quality, manager chillness, etc that might make it easier to work out a rough number.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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If that isn't opening up a can of worms.

[Tim]

Couldn't they have just exempted posted players to allow for the Japanese FA?

[jehr]

So in attempting to curb a "problem" (Cubans 23-25 who aren't restricted by the bonus caps) that won't be a problem much longer (we've nearly tapped out the Cuban market plus the improving relations between countries surely means player procurement will change soon), we're now restricting potential game-changing talent from coming from Asia.

 

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There's some really poor math here with Passan's quote. It's absolutely NOT $6 mil vs $250 mil. It is $6mil (presumably over two years here), then a big contract as opposed to whatever he's getting in Japan for two years, followed by a big contract. Whereas before it was the big contract up front. He's losing money either way due to the CBA... but it's not like he's losing $244 million by coming over now as opposed to waiting two more years. Depending on what he's getting in Japan, it may or may not make sense to come over sooner than later.

[davell]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

That's good news. With Otani, Darvish and possibly Cueto, the Cubs will have some options to replace Arrieta. Given their ages, I'd prefer Otani.

[Cubswin11]

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Theo/Jed right now

[Tim]

 

That's good news. With Otani, Darvish and possibly Cueto, the Cubs will have some options to replace Arrieta. Given their ages, I'd prefer Otani.

Sign Darvish, have him help recruit Otani. Rotation solved.

[Tim]

Oh yeah...create a Japanese version of the Cubs TV network, too.

[David]

 

That's good news. With Otani, Darvish and possibly Cueto, the Cubs will have some options to replace Arrieta. Given their ages, I'd prefer Otani.

Sign Darvish, have him help recruit Otani. Rotation solved.

 

I would hope the back to back WS champs wouldn't need help in recruiting. But I'll still take Darvish.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

That's good news. With Otani, Darvish and possibly Cueto, the Cubs will have some options to replace Arrieta. Given their ages, I'd prefer Otani.

Sign Darvish, have him help recruit Otani. Rotation solved.

 

I assumed they'd only get one. Gotta save up for Bryce too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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[David]

The MLB will feign a fight for the story, but they're not going to actually try too hard to keep Otani out.

 

what?

 

why would they feign a fight to keep him out?

[Cubswin11]

The MLB will feign a fight for the story, but they're not going to actually try too hard to keep Otani out.

 

what?

 

why would they feign a fight to keep him out?

No it's cool because then the story will be "Cubs bend, Break?, rules to get the best Japanese pitcher ever." Then everyone will hate us, when deep down it will just be a rage jealousy, and it will be glorious.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

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[David]

It's not like the actual CBA has been written out yet anyway. Just agreement on the parameters. Still plenty of nuance that can be worked in.

[philosophizer75]

I'm not well versed in the terms or stipulations of the CBA, but how hard would it be to have a clause in there that says "if a player has played x amount of years of professional baseball in such and such a league, they don't fall under the rules for international amateur signings"?

[Cubswin11]

I'm not well versed in the terms or stipulations of the CBA, but how hard would it be to have a clause in there that says "if a player has played x amount of years of professional baseball in such and such a league, they don't fall under the rules for international amateur signings"?

It could be even more simple than that, that the commissioners office or players union or some combo can allow guys to come over outside of the set IFA rules at their discretion for the betterment of the game.

[jehr]

I'm not well versed in the terms or stipulations of the CBA, but how hard would it be to have a clause in there that says "if a player has played x amount of years of professional baseball in such and such a league, they don't fall under the rules for international amateur signings"?

It could be even more simple than that, that the commissioners office or players union or some combo can allow guys to come over outside of the set IFA rules at their discretion for the betterment of the game.

That might work well for a clear-cut case like Otani... but at some point, you'll hit the sliding scale where you have harder, no-so-clear choices. It's a slippery slope that potentially opens up the commissioners office to complaints of favoritism in the future. If I was the commissioner, I'd say thanks, but no thanks.

[Tim]

Again, I think it is easy to make a distinction. Allow posted players as an exception.

[mul21]

Again, I think it is easy to make a distinction. Allow posted players as an exception.

 

Yeah, especially since that's a clearly defined process elsewhere in the CBA, it seems like wording it in that manner would cause the least uproar.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Again, I think it is easy to make a distinction. Allow posted players as an exception.

 

Alternatively, just change the 'and' to 'or' when it comes to the age and pro service time requirements.