Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Not to mention the fact that the majority of Japanese players to come to MLB over the past 20 years have ended up in.....LA or NY

 

Have they now?

 

Of the 50 Japanese players that have made their debut since 1998, 9 have made their debuts with the Yankees or Dodgers. So, no.

 

The Mets have actually had 7, which surprised me a bit.

[UMFan83]

Not to mention the fact that the majority of Japanese players to come to MLB over the past 20 years have ended up in.....LA or NY

 

Have they now?

 

Just taking a look at it. Since Ichiro, players that have had any sort of impact as a major leaguer, excluding guys that came over after 35:

 

Mariners - 4 (Ichiro, Johjima, Kawasaki, Iwakuma)

Yankees - 3 (H. Matsui, Igawa, Tanaka)

Red Sox - 3 (Okajima, D. Matsuzaka, Tazawa)

Cubs - 3 (Fukudome, Fujikawa, Wada)

Dodgers - 2 (Maeda, Kuroda)

White Sox - 2 (Iguchi, Takatsu)

Teams with 1 - Rangers (Darvish), Brewers (Aoki), Twins (Nishioka), Orioles (Uehara), Rays (Iwamura), Padres (Otsuka), Mets (K. Matsui), Cardinals (Taguchi)

 

I probably missed a few so feel free to call them out. Also I realize that the Dodgers (Nomo) and Yankees (Irabu) both had success pre-2001, I just sort of see the Ichiro signing as the opening of the Asian floodgates.

 

Of the ones I listed, there are only a few that I remember as being big deals where a number of teams were bidding heavily. They are:

 

Tanaka (Yankees), Matsui (Yankees), Maeda (Dodgers), Matsuzaka (Red Sox), Ichiro (Mariners), Darvish (Rangers), I guess sort of Kaz Matsui (Mets) and Fukudome (Cubs).

 

So I don't know I see it as more spaced out then just 2 teams getting everyone. But I can obviously see the reasons why Ohtani would lean towards NY and LA.

 

Edit: [expletive], 2 people already posted well crafted responses basically saying the same thing as I was creating mine)

[David]

Not to mention the fact that the majority of Japanese players to come to MLB over the past 20 years have ended up in.....LA or NY

 

Have they now?

 

Just taking a look at it. Since Ichiro, players that have had any sort of impact as a major leaguer, excluding guys that came over after 35:

 

Mariners - 4 (Ichiro, Johjima, Kawasaki, Iwakuma)

Yankees - 3 (H. Matsui, Igawa, Tanaka)

Red Sox - 3 (Okajima, D. Matsuzaka, Tazawa)

Cubs - 3 (Fukudome, Fujikawa, Wada)

Dodgers - 2 (Maeda, Kuroda)

White Sox - 2 (Iguchi, Takatsu)

Teams with 1 - Rangers (Darvish), Brewers (Aoki), Twins (Nishioka), Orioles (Uehara), Rays (Iwamura), Padres (Otsuka), Mets (K. Matsui), Cardinals (Taguchi)

 

I probably missed a few so feel free to call them out. Also I realize that the Dodgers (Nomo) and Yankees (Irabu) both had success pre-2001, I just sort of see the Ichiro signing as the opening of the Asian floodgates.

 

Of the ones I listed, there are only a few that I remember as being big deals where a number of teams were bidding heavily. They are:

 

Tanaka (Yankees), Matsui (Yankees), Maeda (Dodgers), Matsuzaka (Red Sox), Ichiro (Mariners), Darvish (Rangers), I guess sort of Kaz Matsui (Mets) and Fukudome (Cubs).

 

So I don't know I see it as more spaced out then just 2 teams getting everyone. But I can obviously see the reasons why Ohtani would lean towards NY and LA.

 

Edit: [expletive], 2 people already posted well crafted responses basically saying the same thing as I was creating mine)

 

I definitely think of Nomo as the start of it.

[David]

Not to mention the fact that the majority of Japanese players to come to MLB over the past 20 years have ended up in.....LA or NY

 

In the last 20 years there have been 17 players who came over from NPB and played at least 5 years(this is to self select for some level of desirability, although it's not perfect).

 

Seattle 3

Boston 3 (all Epstein era)

Dodgers 2

Mets 2

Yankees 1 (although Tanaka will make 2)

Cubs 1 (Fukudome, non-Epstein era)

Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Texas 1 each

 

The Epstein era Cubs have also signed multiple Japanese players who didn't make it that long in Fujikawa and Wada.

 

Big markets have an advantage in most historical cases because they're big enough to have communities that aren't completely foreign, and they have the most money to pay. The latter doesn't matter in this case, and the above clearly illustrates that the Cubs aren't some extreme underdog to NY/LA in the former.

 

I would say the Yankees are the favorite, but not runaway favorites and I like the Cubs' odds as much as any non-Yankee team.

 

I don't see any way I'd consider the Cubs' odds as good as LAD.

[Bertz]

Yeah I don't think we have a prayer unless there's some soft factor we haven't considered, like Michael Jordan is his icon or he horsefeathering loves Joe Maddon's whole schtick. With money not being a factor, there are four things that IMO are likely to influence his decision:

 

1. Competitive Outlook

2. Geography

3. Willingness to utilize him how he'd like

4. Fame

 

We match up with anybody on #1, though it's not a huge advantage. We're one of five or six teams that looks great in the short to medium term. But in the long term you'd take the Dodgers or Yankees purely because of money. For 2 through 4, we don't look so hot. Geographically, it'd be an a shock if he didn't prefer the west coast. For #3, maybe Joe's outsized reputation for creativity helps us, but I think pretty clearly favors every AL team over any NL team. #4, if it matters, strongly suggests the Yankees or Dodgers.

 

I just can't see him coming here at all. I think it ultimately comes down to two things. First, does he care more about fame or geography? Second, would he rather be "THE Guy" on a good team, or "A Guy" on a great team. Framing it that way, I think I think it comes down between the Yankees and Mariners. Based on this article from Jeff Passan, he doesn't sound like he's interested in the spotlight:

 

Maybe it works. As one official put it, if Otani does want to spend 2018 in MLB, “$5 million is not going to be outcome determinative. This is a long play. He’ll sign where he’s most comfortable. Easy as that.” The official chuckled and asked: “So, do you know what makes him most comfortable?”

 

Is it spending his nights at home instead of out partying? One GM’s report pegged Otani as something of a homebody. And does the fact that so few know much about him say something about his ability to connect with others? And are these injuries that keep cropping up indicative of deeper medical concerns? These questions aren’t rhetorical. They’re ones being asked to no avail.

 

I really think he's going to end up a Mariner, but honestly it sounds like no one, even the industry folks, actually has any idea.

[champaignchris]

One small correction to a couple of the posts above... Tsuyoshi Wada signed with Baltimore out of the NPB. Got hurt. Never pitched in the Majors and then signed with the Cubs after the Orioles didn’t re-sign him.

[UMFan83]

 

Have they now?

 

Just taking a look at it. Since Ichiro, players that have had any sort of impact as a major leaguer, excluding guys that came over after 35:

 

Mariners - 4 (Ichiro, Johjima, Kawasaki, Iwakuma)

Yankees - 3 (H. Matsui, Igawa, Tanaka)

Red Sox - 3 (Okajima, D. Matsuzaka, Tazawa)

Cubs - 3 (Fukudome, Fujikawa, Wada)

Dodgers - 2 (Maeda, Kuroda)

White Sox - 2 (Iguchi, Takatsu)

Teams with 1 - Rangers (Darvish), Brewers (Aoki), Twins (Nishioka), Orioles (Uehara), Rays (Iwamura), Padres (Otsuka), Mets (K. Matsui), Cardinals (Taguchi)

 

I probably missed a few so feel free to call them out. Also I realize that the Dodgers (Nomo) and Yankees (Irabu) both had success pre-2001, I just sort of see the Ichiro signing as the opening of the Asian floodgates.

 

Of the ones I listed, there are only a few that I remember as being big deals where a number of teams were bidding heavily. They are:

 

Tanaka (Yankees), Matsui (Yankees), Maeda (Dodgers), Matsuzaka (Red Sox), Ichiro (Mariners), Darvish (Rangers), I guess sort of Kaz Matsui (Mets) and Fukudome (Cubs).

 

So I don't know I see it as more spaced out then just 2 teams getting everyone. But I can obviously see the reasons why Ohtani would lean towards NY and LA.

 

Edit: [expletive], 2 people already posted well crafted responses basically saying the same thing as I was creating mine)

 

I definitely think of Nomo as the start of it.

 

Yeah maybe you're right, at least for pitchers. I remember when Ichiro was coming over there was a lot of doubts that Japanese hitters could succeed in MLB during the home run era (later known as steroid era).

[Derwood]

So maybe not majority :lol:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't see any way I'd consider the Cubs' odds as good as LAD.

 

I forgot about Maeda, so you're probably right that I'd consider the Dodgers' odds a bit better. Basically:

 

Competitive: Cubs and Dodgers are head of the class here, with the Yankees and Red Sox still strong

Playing time: AL teams can give him DH time that NL teams won't be able to

Japanese influence: Yankees and Dodgers have a rotation mate that can speak the language, this could be a downside if Otani really wants to distinguish himself as his own guy. Which leads to..

Head of the rotation: Cubs and Yankees have the most opportunity here, Otani will be second fiddle to Kershaw or Sale in LA/Boston

 

I also give the Cubs the benefit of the doubt given Theo's success in signing players from Japan and in winning negotiations where he isn't simply dropping the highest dollar amount(Lester, Heyward). Other front offices are good at what they do, but there's more of a track record to go on for him.

 

So something like 25/20/15/15/25 between Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs/Red Sox/Field?

[UMFan83]

I don't see any way I'd consider the Cubs' odds as good as LAD.

 

I forgot about Maeda, so you're probably right that I'd consider the Dodgers' odds a bit better. Basically:

 

Competitive: Cubs and Dodgers are head of the class here, with the Yankees and Red Sox still strong

Playing time: AL teams can give him DH time that NL teams won't be able to

Japanese influence: Yankees and Dodgers have a rotation mate that can speak the language, this could be a downside if Otani really wants to distinguish himself as his own guy. Which leads to..

Head of the rotation: Cubs and Yankees have the most opportunity here, Otani will be second fiddle to Kershaw or Sale in LA/Boston

 

I also give the Cubs the benefit of the doubt given Theo's success in signing players from Japan and in winning negotiations where he isn't simply dropping the highest dollar amount(Lester, Heyward). Other front offices are good at what they do, but there's more of a track record to go on for him.

 

I know this has been talked about to death but with regards to playing time, I think the AL poses unique challenges for him. If he is not cutting it at DH, the Yankees or whoever else will not hesitate to keep him out of the lineup and use another DH. Even if he does cut it, on days he pitches there is a slight disadvantage to having him hit for himself because when he leaves the game they will have to play NL baseball the rest of the game, so there's a decent chance that if he doesn't hit above replacement level or he needs more time adjusting to MLB pitching, he might not end up getting many ABs at all.

 

In the NL, he will be guaranteed to get ABs every 5th day regardless of how well he hits. And if he hits well, he will get PH appearances just as he would in the AL. The downside is that if he hits really well he will need to learn to play OF to get everyday ABs.

 

There are advantages to each league and I'm sure Ohtani is confident about his hitting ability translating to MLB, but just looking at it rationally I can't see the AL being that much better for him...but you would probably know better than I how well his hitting will adjust. I see him being better than a good hitting pitcher but not quite everyday regular type of guy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I know this has been talked about to death but with regards to playing time, I think the AL poses unique challenges for him. If he is not cutting it at DH, the Yankees or whoever else will not hesitate to keep him out of the lineup and use another DH. Even if he does cut it, on days he pitches there is a slight disadvantage to having him hit for himself because when he leaves the game they will have to play NL baseball the rest of the game, so there's a decent chance that if he doesn't hit above replacement level or he needs more time adjusting to MLB pitching, he might not end up getting many ABs at all.

 

In the NL, he will be guaranteed to get ABs every 5th day regardless of how well he hits. And if he hits well, he will get PH appearances just as he would in the AL. The downside is that if he hits really well he will need to learn to play OF to get everyday ABs.

 

There are advantages to each league and I'm sure Ohtani is confident about his hitting ability translating to MLB, but just looking at it rationally I can't see the AL being that much better for him...but you would probably know better than I how well his hitting will adjust. I see him being better than a good hitting pitcher but not quite everyday regular type of guy.

 

I follow the logic and don't really disagree, but I think the AL still holds sway on things that can actually be sold to him. It's trivially easy for an AL team to chart a path to 400 PA via the DH, whether they'll actually do it doesn't mean as much to me because like you say, Otani is going to be confident that he'll hit anyway. In practice an NL team might be a better/more sustainable arrangement, but since this is unprecedented it's gonna be easier to overpromise as an AL team.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes, if you ignore the questionnaire breakdown it certainly would be very easy to decide that location has little to no bearing on his choice.

[UMFan83]

Geography is a significant disadvantage if one believes the reports.

 

I haven’t even seen the reports or am reading them very differently if we are reading the same stuff. Most of the perceived value in geography based on the speculation seems to be the Japanese population in a given city but there is not a single quote from Ohtani or a rep over years and years where this is or will be a factor.

 

How is it a factor to him? He wants to be on the west coast/closer to Japan? Or he just wants to be on either coast? Or just wants to live somewhere with a significant Japanese population? Can't do anything about living on the coast, but Chicago has 6 different airlines that run direct flights to Tokyo so its not out of reach for him.

 

In terms of Japanese population, California holds a huge advantage over any other state. Outside of California, you are looking at about 38k Japanese Americans in NY (state) and 34k in Washington (state) and 17k in Illinois, virtually all within the Chicago area. A little over double the population in NY but NYC metro has nearly 3x as many people

Edited November 27, 2017 by UMFan83

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes, if you ignore the questionnaire breakdown it certainly would be very easy to decide that location has little to no bearing on his choice.

 

Of course location matters. That is not the point I am making.

 

Yeah, the point you're making, that he wants a sizable native Japanese population around him, isn't something anyone is arguing. It's all about the size of the market and the accessibility of Japanese media and endorsements and the like. Chicago's not the boonies, but NY and LA are much better suited to fit those needs.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Of course location matters. That is not the point I am making.

 

Yeah, the point you're making, that he wants a sizable native Japanese population around him, isn't something anyone is arguing. It's all about the size of the market and the accessibility of Japanese media and endorsements and the like. Chicago's not the boonies, but NY and LA are much better suited to fit those needs.

 

I’m saying the opposite. They’re coming to him, as they always have, no matter where he goes.

 

That's being willfully naïve or deliberately obtuse if you think it's the same being in Chicago as being in an international medial capital like LA or NY. Yeah, there will be a press pool following him everywhere, but everything is magnified if he's in those cities vs. anywhere else. You're inherently a bigger celebrity if you play for those teams, especially when they're good. If the Cubs could pay the money, fine, but you're asking him to settle for less when it comes to that and the scope of the market could end up in.

[Sammy Sofa]

I also disagree, at least in the context of the MLB and the Cubs, that NY and LA are significantly better positioned with any of that stuff in 2017going on 2018. Maybe even ten years ago, horsefeathers even five years ago I’d give them no shot at all but it’s a whole new era of MLB these days.

 

God only knows what you think you mean with this meaningless statement. It's not a "new era" in terms of money, or places like LA and NY being bigger markets than Chicago.

[David]

Geography is a significant disadvantage if one believes the reports.

 

I haven’t even seen the reports or am reading them very differently if we are reading the same stuff. Most of the perceived value in geography based on the speculation seems to be the Japanese population in a given city but there is not a single quote from Ohtani or a rep over years and years where this is or will be a factor.

 

Also overrated as a factor is the bat. He is a pitcher. That is where the long term money is, but even beyond that he has always been a pitcher. Any and every team will give him a chance to hit, but as a LHH with swing and miss in his game he’s not sliding into anyone’s everyday lineup.

 

The hitting issue has nothing to do with his value or the value of his bat. It's his strong preference (if not insistence) to play somewhere he'll be allowed to hit regularly. That's a promise that'll probably at least have to be made until he at least proves not worthy of it. It's not about teams seeing value in the bat or how bad he might be at it. It's about his preference for it being a determining factor in deciding where he signs.

[davell]

A franchise's net worth has literally nothing to do with anything. Why in the world would it?

[DonnieD]

You're inherently a bigger celebrity if you play for those teams, especially when they're good. If the Cubs could pay the money, fine, but you're asking him to settle for less when it comes to that and the scope of the market could end up in.

How are you measuring fame or level of celebrity? I would argue Star players from good Cubs teams are every bit as famous as Yankee or Dodger superstars.

[Sammy Sofa]

I also disagree, at least in the context of the MLB and the Cubs, that NY and LA are significantly better positioned with any of that stuff in 2017going on 2018. Maybe even ten years ago, horsefeathers even five years ago I’d give them no shot at all but it’s a whole new era of MLB these days.

 

God only knows what you think you mean with this meaningless statement. It's not a "new era" in terms of money, or places like LA and NY being bigger markets than Chicago.

 

The Cubs were valued at $2 billion 2-3 years after being bought for less than a billion. This was before winning a WS, leading the league in wins from 2015-2017, before being able to sell off all media rights...Money isn’t going to be the difference maker between these three franchises, and I generally believe it will come down to these three.

 

Great, I guess if let him peak at their bank ledger or something he'll be so impressed he'll take less money to play for them. What in the world.

[SpongeWorthy]

I promise you guys that no one is generally more famous because they play for the horsefeathering dodgers compared to the cubs

[Sammy Sofa]

You're inherently a bigger celebrity if you play for those teams, especially when they're good. If the Cubs could pay the money, fine, but you're asking him to settle for less when it comes to that and the scope of the market could end up in.

How are you measuring fame or level of celebrity? I would argue Star players from good Cubs teams are every bit as famous as Yankee or Dodger superstars.

 

I don't agree with that at all. Hell, David Ross is arguably the most famous person from the WS team (COME AT ME, BROS).

 

Bottom line, if it's about fame/name recognition, nothing beats if you're perceived as a great player on a good Yankees team. That trounces the Dodgers, too.

[SpongeWorthy]

You're inherently a bigger celebrity if you play for those teams, especially when they're good. If the Cubs could pay the money, fine, but you're asking him to settle for less when it comes to that and the scope of the market could end up in.

How are you measuring fame or level of celebrity? I would argue Star players from good Cubs teams are every bit as famous as Yankee or Dodger superstars.

 

I don't agree with that at all. Hell, David Ross is arguably the most famous person from the WS team (COME AT ME, BROS).

 

Bottom line, if it's about fame/name recognition, nothing beats if you're perceived as a great player on a good Yankees team. That trounces the Dodgers, too.

 

no one cares about justin turner i assure you

[DonnieD]

You're inherently a bigger celebrity if you play for those teams, especially when they're good. If the Cubs could pay the money, fine, but you're asking him to settle for less when it comes to that and the scope of the market could end up in.

How are you measuring fame or level of celebrity? I would argue Star players from good Cubs teams are every bit as famous as Yankee or Dodger superstars.

 

I don't agree with that at all. Hell, David Ross is arguably the most famous person from the WS team (COME AT ME, BROS).

 

Bottom line, if it's about fame/name recognition, nothing beats if you're perceived as a great player on a good Yankees team. That trounces the Dodgers, too.

So you’re measuring based on your perception?

[Bertz]

I have a really hard time believing a guy described like this

 

There are, so to speak, no two ways about it. The most compelling story in baseball is playing out in the city of Sapporo, on Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido. The central character is a modest 22-year-old who lives in a drab team dorm and doesn’t drink alcohol or own a car.

 

Teammates say that when they invite Ohtani to social functions, he’ll ask if they plan on drinking. If the answer is yes, he’ll quietly head back to the dorm. No judgments either way. Says Laird, “It’s like he’s the team’s star and also the team’s little brother.

 

Is someone we should be so sure is choosing between New York, Chicago, and LA. There's a very good chance that this is a guy who would easily play in a third-tier city like San Diego or Milwaukee if they checked enough of his other boxes.