General Cubs Chit-Chat

[ConstableRabbit]

I also feel like Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS *shudder* was in the afternoon as well.

[UMFan83]

I also feel like Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS *shudder* was in the afternoon as well.

 

You are right that was probably a 5 or 6 PM start. I just remember it being miserably hot outside.

[David]

I also feel like Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS *shudder* was in the afternoon as well.

 

You are right that was probably a 5 or 6 PM start. I just remember it being miserably hot outside.

 

I remember it being gloriously unseasonably warm. Too bad that was the only good thing about that day.

 

Game time weather listed as 82 and sunny

[We Got The Whole 9]

Yeah I feel like one of those games vs AZ in 2007 was pretty early in the day

[bukie]

 

I just don't see him fitting. He's sure as hell not gonna start, and with his first inning woes he's not cut out for the bullpen either.

At some point you have to seriously consider that Lackey is a better option than Lester as a postseason starter this year.

 

I think Lester still gives you a higher upside that makes it worth giving him a start in the NLDS. If it's a must win situation, you have Monty right there to back him up. Or that might be a reason to include an extra pitcher on the roster and include Lackey. If Lester struggled early you bring Lackey on right away to face a lineup that has likely been optimized to face a LHP.

Based on the potential schedule, Lester is going to get likely 2 more starts this season. Since coming off the DL, Lester has been the worst pitcher on the roster. If he can do something in these last two starts to indicate he's found his command (over 5 BB/9 since returning), then he'll be a postsseason starter. If not, I think Lackey is a better option.

[Sammy Sofa]

I also feel like Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS *shudder* was in the afternoon as well.

 

You are right that was probably a 5 or 6 PM start. I just remember it being miserably hot outside.

 

It was awful. I was in Iowa for a wedding, and it was 90-something degrees. Thank god there was an unusually good open bar.

[ConstableRabbit]

Interesting article on Lester's second half:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-weirdest-thing-about-jon-lesters-season/

 

If Fangraphs knows, the Cubs know. Have to wonder what they plan to do about it.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

man, i know lester has struggled mightily for much of this season, but i guess i hadn't appropriately recalibrated my expections of him. it's crazy that there's even a discussion of him versus lackey, but yeah, i guess you have to consider it if he doesn't round into form. ultimately, though, i don't actually see lackey starting over him.

[davell]

 

Well, this is about as delicious as it gets.

[ConstableRabbit]

Rebuttal.

[imb]

Interesting article on Lester's second half:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-weirdest-thing-about-jon-lesters-season/

 

If Fangraphs knows, the Cubs know. Have to wonder what they plan to do about it.

 

horsefeathers, that's damning

[UMFan83]

With the Nationals win last night, the Cubs can officially not get the 2 seed and are locked into the 3 seed once they clinch the division.

 

The Dodgers magic number to clinch the top seed and lock the Nationals/Cubs matchup in place is 2.

[Brian707]

Anyone know when the lottery winners will be announced for buying tickets to NLDS games will be?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cubs 109 wRC+ for non-pitchers is 3rd in MLB and we could pass the Dodgers who are at 111 right now.

 

That's just insane given what we did in the first half.

[champaignchris]

Cubs MLB rank since the ASB (pre ASB rank in parenthesis)

 

#1 in runs (20)

#3 in hits (28)

#3 in total bases (23)

#1 in batting average (28)

#1 in on base percentage (18)

#1 in slugging (19)

#2 in walks (3)

[Derwood]

Cubs MLB rank since the ASB (pre ASB rank in parenthesis)

 

#1 in runs (20)

#3 in hits (28)

#3 in total bases (23)

#1 in batting average (28)

#1 in on base percentage (18)

#1 in slugging (19)

#2 in walks (3)

 

#1 in batting average is nuts considering how poorly several of the players have hit

[David]

Cubs MLB rank since the ASB (pre ASB rank in parenthesis)

 

#1 in runs (20)

#3 in hits (28)

#3 in total bases (23)

#1 in batting average (28)

#1 in on base percentage (18)

#1 in slugging (19)

#2 in walks (3)

 

#1 in batting average is nuts considering how poorly several of the players have hit

 

except they obviously haven't or they wouldn't be #1 in batting average

 

i'm gonna guess that the worst guy regularly getting ABs in the second half is around .250, without looking

[bukie]

Cubs MLB rank since the ASB (pre ASB rank in parenthesis)

 

#1 in runs (20)

#3 in hits (28)

#3 in total bases (23)

#1 in batting average (28)

#1 in on base percentage (18)

#1 in slugging (19)

#2 in walks (3)

 

#1 in batting average is nuts considering how poorly several of the players have hit

All year, yes. Second half, every player has improved.

[We Got The Whole 9]

In August we hit 300/375/500 as a team excluding pitchers

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i'm gonna guess that the worst guy regularly getting ABs in the second half is around .250, without looking

 

More or less right on, Happ at .248 and Schwarber/Avila at .247.

[squally1313]

Thought this was interesting. In the game thread last night a couple people noticed that as of today, Bryant leads the NL in WAR. Based on the Cubs having a 'down' year until the last few weeks, and his low RBI total/bad clutch numbers, he hasn't gotten a ton of MVP talk, which...whatever.

 

I usually like looking at WPA (win probability added) when looking at the MVP race, as it takes into account big hits and how much impact towards results the player actually had. Amazingly, Trout is leading all of baseball. Bryant comes in at 19th in the National League, thanks largely to him being by far the least clutch player thus far in the NL (no idea how the stat works, but his number is -2.92, the next worst person, Stanton, is -1.85).

 

Top NL WPA producer? Our other cornerstone, Anthony Rizzo.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Thought this was interesting. In the game thread last night a couple people noticed that as of today, Bryant leads the NL in WAR. Based on the Cubs having a 'down' year until the last few weeks, and his low RBI total/bad clutch numbers, he hasn't gotten a ton of MVP talk, which...whatever.

 

I usually like looking at WPA (win probability added) when looking at the MVP race, as it takes into account big hits and how much impact towards results the player actually had. Amazingly, Trout is leading all of baseball. Bryant comes in at 19th in the National League, thanks largely to him being by far the least clutch player thus far in the NL (no idea how the stat works, but his number is -2.92, the next worst person, Stanton, is -1.85).

 

Top NL WPA producer? Our other cornerstone, Anthony Rizzo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/before-you-vote-some-other-things-to-consider/

 

Breaks down a little bit of Bryant's clutch score.

 

For example, while you probably wouldn’t base any sort of predictive analysis on either Win Probability Added or Clutch, both metrics are meaningful representations of what has happened, of who’s produced in crucial situations. Not all raw value (WAR) is created equal. Consider what FanGraphs’ “Clutch” metric is measuring:

 

“…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch. Clutch does a good job of describing the past, but it does very little towards predicting the future.”

 

 

WAR is more predictive than WPA and Cutch, sure, but WPA tells us about performance in context and Clutch about how the player performs, relative to his skill, in high-leverage situations.

 

[Andy]

Looks like all 4 series play Friday Oct. 6 as well.

 

Go Twins in that wild card game. horsefeathers playoff day games.

 

It's crazy, I can only think of 3 Cubs playoff games out of the...47 that have happened since 1989 that have been weekday afternoonish. 1998 Game 1 against the Braves was early afternoon, 2008 Game 1 against the Dodgers I believe was very late afternoon, something like a 4 or 5 PM start, and then 2015 Game 4 against the Cardinals started sometime around 3:30 PM. We've been quite fortunate in that regard.

2015 Game 2 against STL was also during the day, albeit a Saturday.

[Derwood]

i'm gonna guess that the worst guy regularly getting ABs in the second half is around .250, without looking

 

More or less right on, Happ at .248 and Schwarber/Avila at .247.

 

I probably would have bet a small amount of money that Zobrist was batting worse than that in the second half. *shrug*

[Omar]

out of the loop. Why is La Stella "Seal Boy" ? Does he look like a seal?