Miguel Montero acquired for Mejia and Godley

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I really hope we don't trade Castillo. We're allowed to have more than one nice thing.

[Guest]

lol @ people who use fWAR for catchers and defend it.

 

yeah, i'd have to say I think the pitch framing metrics are a lot more intuitive and worth looking at than defensive WAR for a catcher.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

lol @ people who use fWAR for catchers and defend it.

 

yeah, i'd have to say I think the pitch framing metrics are a lot more intuitive and worth looking at than defensive WAR for a catcher.

 

And that's basically why fWAR has Montero behind Castillo last year. Their defensive metrics. Which are totally dumb.

[Tryptamine]

lol @ people who use fWAR for catchers and defend it.

 

No more dumb than people who believe there is a nearly 50 run difference between catchers in pitch framing.

[SouthSideRyan]

lol @ people who use fWAR for catchers and defend it.

 

No more dumb than people who believe there is a nearly 50 run difference between catchers in pitch framing.

 

Especially when Montero was a negative at pitch framing in 2013.

[Rob]

I liked Meija, but the upgrade is worth it. And some do that cost will be offset if we trade Castillo to one of the front offices that doesn't buy into pitch-framing numbers.

 

More importantly, it's really nice to see us start pushing in some of these chips we've been acquiring for the last three years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

lol @ people who use fWAR for catchers and defend it.

 

No more dumb than people who believe there is a nearly 50 run difference between catchers in pitch framing.

 

Significantly more dumb.

[Guest]

         Montero     Castillo   Diff     50% diff    33% diff
2014      +24          -24       48        24          16
2013       -2          -17       15         7           5
2012       +7           -5       12         6           4
=================================================================
Avg       +10          -15       25        12           8

 

Even if you divide the difference by 3, on average you're still talking about the better part of a win between them on average.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

         Montero     Castillo   Diff     50% diff    33% diff
2014      +24          -24       48        24          16
2013       -2          -17       15         7           5
2012       +7           -5       12         6           4
=================================================================
Avg       +10          -15       25        12           8

 

Even if you divide the difference by 3, on average you're still talking about the better part of a win between them on average.

 

People always have this weird belief that stats they aren't that familiar with have to be extremely consistent. They don't. Sometimes guys just have weird years. Montero probably isn't a +24 pitch framer every year, but he's good at it and got a ton of close calls last year.

[Agony and Ivy]

So we either gave up a 19 year old top 15 prospect who throws in the upper 90s or a 20 year old prospect who throws I the low 90s and outside our top 30.

 

Yeah, seems like the MLB couldn't get it straightened out either.

 

Mejia, 18, would have been eligible to sign last year, but Major League Baseball had an issue with his paperwork and declared him ineligible to sign until April. However, with teams mostly out of space remaining from their $2.9 million bonus pools from the 2012-13 signing period, it’s not surprising that Mejia waited until the beginning of the 2013-14 signing period to officially sign his contract. Mejia is now using an Aug. 2, 1994 date of birth.

 

Mejia was 6-foot-7, 190 pounds last year and was sitting in the high-80s fastball at the time, but now he’s listed at 220 pounds (although that might be a light estimate) and his fastball has jumped along with the increase in weight. While he was ineligible to sign, Mejia pitched at the Rays’ Dominican academy in January in the International Prospect League all-star game, where he showed a 90-93 mph fastball, a swing-and-miss changeup along with a solid curveball in the mid-70s. His athleticism also improved along with his strength, which helped him get in better sync with his delivery.

 

Unlike other July 2 signings, who sign contracts for the the 2014 season, Mejia can begin playing immediately. However, given the problems he had with his MLB investigation last year, there’s no way to guarantee he will be approved in time to pitch this season.

 

So did we give up the good one or the shitty one?

[Guest]

         Montero     Castillo   Diff     50% diff    33% diff
2014      +24          -24       48        24          16
2013       -2          -17       15         7           5
2012       +7           -5       12         6           4
=================================================================
Avg       +10          -15       25        12           8

 

Even if you divide the difference by 3, on average you're still talking about the better part of a win between them on average.

 

People always have this weird belief that stats they aren't that familiar with have to be extremely consistent. They don't. Sometimes guys just have weird years. Montero probably isn't a +24 pitch framer every year, but he's good at it and got a ton of close calls last year.

That's only if you believe "it" is under his control. Also, you're wrong. In general, If the data aren't relatively consistent they have no predictive utility, so they have little value as a judgment aid.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's only if you believe "it" is under his control. Also, you're wrong. In general, If the data aren't relatively consistent they have no predictive utility, so they have little value as a judgment aid.

 

We know it's under his control because it *is* consistent, just not consistent enough to pass the eye test of some people.

[SouthSideRyan]

         Montero     Castillo   Diff     50% diff    33% diff
2014      +24          -24       48        24          16
2013       -2          -17       15         7           5
2012       +7           -5       12         6           4
=================================================================
Avg       +10          -15       25        12           8

 

Even if you divide the difference by 3, on average you're still talking about the better part of a win between them on average.

 

People always have this weird belief that stats they aren't that familiar with have to be extremely consistent. They don't. Sometimes guys just have weird years. Montero probably isn't a +24 pitch framer every year, but he's good at it and got a ton of close calls last year.

 

And people also have the tendency to see something new and latch on to it and snipe at people who aren't ready to accept it on blind faith. How many Win Shares did Montero have last year?

Edited December 9, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

[Elrhino]

When the same group of catchers are generally always towards the top of the league in "it" and some are always at the bottom from year to year, it generally seems to be under their control.

 

And given that there was a .282 OPS difference between MLB hitters hitting with a 1-2 count and a 2-1 count last season, I would be more likely to believe a great pitch framer could have a 50 run impact than believing in catcher fWAR.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Elrhino

[toonsterwu]

I can't complain about the deal. I think Mejia could be real good, but it's not like Montero didn't have value. Enough teams are looking for catchers, and giving up a high upside kid far away isn't that big a deal.

 

I am mildly fascinated at what sort of value Wellington could have on the market. As bad as catching can be at times, it's quite possible that they might be able to net a raw, high upside guy for Castillo.

 

All in all, a good deal that sets things up well.

[SouthSideRyan]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

[Elrhino]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

 

They're going to knowingly run Javy out there, that doesn't mean they don't put any stock in the value of OBP.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Elrhino

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anything can be worth 5 wins in highly specific circumstances.

 

Nobody's expecting the difference between Castillo and Montero to be five wins every year.

[XZero771679666304]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

If you take the position that they were all right with losing (or were losing intentionally) to acquire talent, then why would they not have?

 

And perhaps they wanted to make sure Castillo was as bad at it as he appeared to be before going in another direction.

[SouthSideRyan]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

 

They're going to knowingly run Javy out there, that doesn't mean they don't put any stock in the value of OBP.

 

Javy getting on base 22% of the time isn't going to hurt the trade value of your other players in years you're punting.

[SouthSideRyan]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

If you take the position that they were all right with losing (or were losing intentionally) to acquire talent, then why would they not have?

 

And perhaps they wanted to make sure Castillo was as bad at it as he appeared to be before going in another direction.

 

Because him being a shitty framer(along with Navarro) hurts the trade value of all those pitchers you're looking to flip.

[XZero771679666304]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

If you take the position that they were all right with losing (or were losing intentionally) to acquire talent, then why would they not have?

 

And perhaps they wanted to make sure Castillo was as bad at it as he appeared to be before going in another direction.

 

Because him being a [expletive] framer(along with Navarro) hurts the trade value of all those pitchers you're looking to flip.

 

Well then the latter still applies. They didn't want to boot Castillo until they were reasonably certain that he wasn't good.

[Guest]

Win shares were always dumb. From day one.

 

Unless you're taking the position that pitch-framing is completely irrelevant, then we can all agree that fWAR for catchers is suspect.

 

Of course it's not irrelevant. Someone who argues a catcher makes a 5 win difference in pitch framing alone is.

 

I like our FO too much to believe they knowingly ran the relative Jake Fox out there behind the plate the last 3 years.

 

 

They're going to knowingly run Javy out there, that doesn't mean they don't put any stock in the value of OBP.

 

Javy getting on base 22% of the time isn't going to hurt the trade value of your other players in years you're punting.

 

Castillo being -15 runs for the year in framing is not going to move the needle for any individual pitcher. Similarly, we shouldn't be expecting some catcher ERA-esque like change in our current pitcher's numbers due to framing.

[TruffleShuffle]

maybe they're still getting caught up on the pinch-framing thing too. castillo wasn't that bad in 2012, and pitch framing metrics i don't think were widely used a couple of years ago.