2014 college football season

[dew1679666265]

The rankings I look at are based on more objective statistical analysis (vs. say a preseason coaches' or sportswriters' poll). There's obviously an element of subjectivity even in those as you have to assign value to things like recruiting, but it makes it harder for a team to be simply overrated. I should point out too that when I'm talking about the strength of the SEC-E, I'm talking more about actual talent-level quality of the teams vs what I think the actual records will end up being (as we all know, there's not a direct 1:1 correlation between the two).

 

I'd like to see the rankings you're talking about. As much because it'd be interesting to see sources for statistical analysis in college football as anything else.

 

This is fine to talk about generally, but that's like the baseball equivalent of saying, "to win close games consistently, you have to be able to buckle down under pressue and show some grit and heart"...kind of true in broad principle, but doesn't really mean much in terms of projecting how good a team will be.

 

There's a huge difference between talking about guys doing dumb things on the field that cause their team to be penalized and talking about mythical "buckling down under pressure and showing some grit and heart" garbage.

 

Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game in 2013, the most in the SEC by a longshot (LSU next at 6.9). That's 121st worst in the nation for UF. That's real and it hurts, especially when you struggle to pick up first downs (113th in total offense). I will say, though, they turned the ball over less than I thought - only .8 per game (37th in nation). Tennessee was disturbingly pathetic at that, though (1.5 per game, good for 119th in nation).

 

I don't know if you've ever checked out Football Outsiders, but they one of several really great websites for meaningful analysis....they take something like a SABR approach to football. Brian Fremeau has developed a nice statistical analytic called the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It basically breaks down offensive/defensive quality by how well executed a drive is. It takes out some of the statistical noise that can result from a couple of flukey plays in an otherwise well-executed performance that might turn into a loss. As a natural corollary to this, he has also developed something like a pythagorean W/L statistic for football...based on the efficiency of various drives, how many points and thus wins "should" a team have had. Basically, with their tough schedule and all of their flukey injuries, UF still underperformed their expeced # of wins by 0.4 wins...which sounds small but is statistically significant in a 12 game season (roughly equivalent to a MLB team underperforming their Pythag by ~5 wins). They were better last year than they looked on paper at the end of the season, and if they can stay healthy this year I expect their record will bounce back pretty well (and I think even less analytical observation of the team tends to support this, which is why their line is at 7.5).

 

That's interesting. I frequent Football Outsiders for the NFL, but didn't know they ventured into college football. I'll have to look that over.

 

That said, much like in baseball, sometimes teams simply underperform expected wins for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's fluky, sometimes it's because managers do dumb things that cost their team wins (excessive hit and runs, steals, etc). It's the same in football - sometimes underperforming is just a fluky thing that's a result of a injuries or variance, but sometimes you just have a terrible coach (Muschamp).

[George Hayduke]

The rankings I look at are based on more objective statistical analysis (vs. say a preseason coaches' or sportswriters' poll). There's obviously an element of subjectivity even in those as you have to assign value to things like recruiting, but it makes it harder for a team to be simply overrated. I should point out too that when I'm talking about the strength of the SEC-E, I'm talking more about actual talent-level quality of the teams vs what I think the actual records will end up being (as we all know, there's not a direct 1:1 correlation between the two).

 

I'd like to see the rankings you're talking about. As much because it'd be interesting to see sources for statistical analysis in college football as anything else.

 

This is fine to talk about generally, but that's like the baseball equivalent of saying, "to win close games consistently, you have to be able to buckle down under pressue and show some grit and heart"...kind of true in broad principle, but doesn't really mean much in terms of projecting how good a team will be.

 

There's a huge difference between talking about guys doing dumb things on the field that cause their team to be penalized and talking about mythical "buckling down under pressure and showing some grit and heart" garbage.

 

Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game in 2013, the most in the SEC by a longshot (LSU next at 6.9). That's 121st worst in the nation for UF. That's real and it hurts, especially when you struggle to pick up first downs (113th in total offense). I will say, though, they turned the ball over less than I thought - only .8 per game (37th in nation). Tennessee was disturbingly pathetic at that, though (1.5 per game, good for 119th in nation).

 

I don't know if you've ever checked out Football Outsiders, but they one of several really great websites for meaningful analysis....they take something like a SABR approach to football. Brian Fremeau has developed a nice statistical analytic called the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It basically breaks down offensive/defensive quality by how well executed a drive is. It takes out some of the statistical noise that can result from a couple of flukey plays in an otherwise well-executed performance that might turn into a loss. As a natural corollary to this, he has also developed something like a pythagorean W/L statistic for football...based on the efficiency of various drives, how many points and thus wins "should" a team have had. Basically, with their tough schedule and all of their flukey injuries, UF still underperformed their expeced # of wins by 0.4 wins...which sounds small but is statistically significant in a 12 game season (roughly equivalent to a MLB team underperforming their Pythag by ~5 wins). They were better last year than they looked on paper at the end of the season, and if they can stay healthy this year I expect their record will bounce back pretty well (and I think even less analytical observation of the team tends to support this, which is why their line is at 7.5).

 

That's interesting. I frequent Football Outsiders for the NFL, but didn't know they ventured into college football. I'll have to look that over.

 

That said, much like in baseball, sometimes teams simply underperform expected wins for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's fluky, sometimes it's because managers do dumb things that cost their team wins (excessive hit and runs, steals, etc). It's the same in football - sometimes underperforming is just a fluky thing that's a result of a injuries or variance, but sometimes you just have a terrible coach (Muschamp).

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/5/9/5698590/2014-college-football-rankings-advanced-stats - Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections, which is derived from a systematic analysis of every play of every game

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10578520/alabama-oregon-lead-early-top-10-projections-2014-college-football - Brian Fremeau's Football Effeciency Index, which is drive-based instead of play or game-based (this is a link to the 2014 preseason index, but you gotta have ESPN Insider to view...if you just want to see how the index works, you can look at previous years' here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei)

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus - The F+ Index, which is a nifty meta-analytic combination of S&P+ and FEI (this is only done later in the season when there is enough data for it to actually be meaningful)

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10935532/florida-state-seminoles-lead-2014-preseason-football-power-index-ratings - Alok Pattani's FPI, which is OK. It's a decent analytic but the FPI tends to work better for NFL because part of the index is based on a team's performance from the previous few seasons, which is a problem in college for obvious reasons.

 

RE: Florida's performance, you may be right. FWIW, a coworker of mine went to UT and feels confident if they can get past Utah St, then they can handle UF and will make it back to a bowl this year. I have doubts about that, but we'll see.

[Guest]

The rankings I look at are based on more objective statistical analysis (vs. say a preseason coaches' or sportswriters' poll). There's obviously an element of subjectivity even in those as you have to assign value to things like recruiting, but it makes it harder for a team to be simply overrated. I should point out too that when I'm talking about the strength of the SEC-E, I'm talking more about actual talent-level quality of the teams vs what I think the actual records will end up being (as we all know, there's not a direct 1:1 correlation between the two).

 

I'd like to see the rankings you're talking about. As much because it'd be interesting to see sources for statistical analysis in college football as anything else.

 

This is fine to talk about generally, but that's like the baseball equivalent of saying, "to win close games consistently, you have to be able to buckle down under pressue and show some grit and heart"...kind of true in broad principle, but doesn't really mean much in terms of projecting how good a team will be.

 

There's a huge difference between talking about guys doing dumb things on the field that cause their team to be penalized and talking about mythical "buckling down under pressure and showing some grit and heart" garbage.

 

Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game in 2013, the most in the SEC by a longshot (LSU next at 6.9). That's 121st worst in the nation for UF. That's real and it hurts, especially when you struggle to pick up first downs (113th in total offense). I will say, though, they turned the ball over less than I thought - only .8 per game (37th in nation). Tennessee was disturbingly pathetic at that, though (1.5 per game, good for 119th in nation).

 

I don't know if you've ever checked out Football Outsiders, but they one of several really great websites for meaningful analysis....they take something like a SABR approach to football. Brian Fremeau has developed a nice statistical analytic called the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It basically breaks down offensive/defensive quality by how well executed a drive is. It takes out some of the statistical noise that can result from a couple of flukey plays in an otherwise well-executed performance that might turn into a loss. As a natural corollary to this, he has also developed something like a pythagorean W/L statistic for football...based on the efficiency of various drives, how many points and thus wins "should" a team have had. Basically, with their tough schedule and all of their flukey injuries, UF still underperformed their expeced # of wins by 0.4 wins...which sounds small but is statistically significant in a 12 game season (roughly equivalent to a MLB team underperforming their Pythag by ~5 wins). They were better last year than they looked on paper at the end of the season, and if they can stay healthy this year I expect their record will bounce back pretty well (and I think even less analytical observation of the team tends to support this, which is why their line is at 7.5).

 

That's interesting. I frequent Football Outsiders for the NFL, but didn't know they ventured into college football. I'll have to look that over.

 

That said, much like in baseball, sometimes teams simply underperform expected wins for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's fluky, sometimes it's because managers do dumb things that cost their team wins (excessive hit and runs, steals, etc). It's the same in football - sometimes underperforming is just a fluky thing that's a result of a injuries or variance, but sometimes you just have a terrible coach (Muschamp).

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/5/9/5698590/2014-college-football-rankings-advanced-stats - Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections, which is derived from a systematic analysis of every play of every game

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10578520/alabama-oregon-lead-early-top-10-projections-2014-college-football - Brian Fremeau's Football Effeciency Index, which is drive-based instead of play or game-based (this is a link to the 2014 preseason index, but you gotta have ESPN Insider to view...if you just want to see how the index works, you can look at previous years' here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei)

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus - The F+ Index, which is a nifty meta-analytic combination of S&P+ and FEI (this is only done later in the season when there is enough data for it to actually be meaningful)

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10935532/florida-state-seminoles-lead-2014-preseason-football-power-index-ratings - Alok Pattani's FPI, which is OK. It's a decent analytic but the FPI tends to work better for NFL because part of the index is based on a team's performance from the previous few seasons, which is a problem in college for obvious reasons.

 

RE: Florida's performance, you may be right. FWIW, a coworker of mine went to UT and feels confident if they can get past Utah St, then they can handle UF and will make it back to a bowl this year. I have doubts about that, but we'll see.

Don't know if I've mentioned it yet, but welcome to the forum! :)

[George Hayduke]

The rankings I look at are based on more objective statistical analysis (vs. say a preseason coaches' or sportswriters' poll). There's obviously an element of subjectivity even in those as you have to assign value to things like recruiting, but it makes it harder for a team to be simply overrated. I should point out too that when I'm talking about the strength of the SEC-E, I'm talking more about actual talent-level quality of the teams vs what I think the actual records will end up being (as we all know, there's not a direct 1:1 correlation between the two).

 

I'd like to see the rankings you're talking about. As much because it'd be interesting to see sources for statistical analysis in college football as anything else.

 

This is fine to talk about generally, but that's like the baseball equivalent of saying, "to win close games consistently, you have to be able to buckle down under pressue and show some grit and heart"...kind of true in broad principle, but doesn't really mean much in terms of projecting how good a team will be.

 

There's a huge difference between talking about guys doing dumb things on the field that cause their team to be penalized and talking about mythical "buckling down under pressure and showing some grit and heart" garbage.

 

Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game in 2013, the most in the SEC by a longshot (LSU next at 6.9). That's 121st worst in the nation for UF. That's real and it hurts, especially when you struggle to pick up first downs (113th in total offense). I will say, though, they turned the ball over less than I thought - only .8 per game (37th in nation). Tennessee was disturbingly pathetic at that, though (1.5 per game, good for 119th in nation).

 

I don't know if you've ever checked out Football Outsiders, but they one of several really great websites for meaningful analysis....they take something like a SABR approach to football. Brian Fremeau has developed a nice statistical analytic called the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It basically breaks down offensive/defensive quality by how well executed a drive is. It takes out some of the statistical noise that can result from a couple of flukey plays in an otherwise well-executed performance that might turn into a loss. As a natural corollary to this, he has also developed something like a pythagorean W/L statistic for football...based on the efficiency of various drives, how many points and thus wins "should" a team have had. Basically, with their tough schedule and all of their flukey injuries, UF still underperformed their expeced # of wins by 0.4 wins...which sounds small but is statistically significant in a 12 game season (roughly equivalent to a MLB team underperforming their Pythag by ~5 wins). They were better last year than they looked on paper at the end of the season, and if they can stay healthy this year I expect their record will bounce back pretty well (and I think even less analytical observation of the team tends to support this, which is why their line is at 7.5).

 

That's interesting. I frequent Football Outsiders for the NFL, but didn't know they ventured into college football. I'll have to look that over.

 

That said, much like in baseball, sometimes teams simply underperform expected wins for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's fluky, sometimes it's because managers do dumb things that cost their team wins (excessive hit and runs, steals, etc). It's the same in football - sometimes underperforming is just a fluky thing that's a result of a injuries or variance, but sometimes you just have a terrible coach (Muschamp).

 

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/5/9/5698590/2014-college-football-rankings-advanced-stats - Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections, which is derived from a systematic analysis of every play of every game

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10578520/alabama-oregon-lead-early-top-10-projections-2014-college-football - Brian Fremeau's Football Effeciency Index, which is drive-based instead of play or game-based (this is a link to the 2014 preseason index, but you gotta have ESPN Insider to view...if you just want to see how the index works, you can look at previous years' here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei)

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus - The F+ Index, which is a nifty meta-analytic combination of S&P+ and FEI (this is only done later in the season when there is enough data for it to actually be meaningful)

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10935532/florida-state-seminoles-lead-2014-preseason-football-power-index-ratings - Alok Pattani's FPI, which is OK. It's a decent analytic but the FPI tends to work better for NFL because part of the index is based on a team's performance from the previous few seasons, which is a problem in college for obvious reasons.

 

RE: Florida's performance, you may be right. FWIW, a coworker of mine went to UT and feels confident if they can get past Utah St, then they can handle UF and will make it back to a bowl this year. I have doubts about that, but we'll see.

Don't know if I've mentioned it yet, but welcome to the forum! :)

 

I guess you kind of generally did a blanket welcome in the lurker coming out minor league thread the other day...but thanks! You are doing a great job here with this site! :good:

[dew1679666265]

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/5/9/5698590/2014-college-football-rankings-advanced-stats - Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections, which is derived from a systematic analysis of every play of every game

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10578520/alabama-oregon-lead-early-top-10-projections-2014-college-football - Brian Fremeau's Football Effeciency Index, which is drive-based instead of play or game-based (this is a link to the 2014 preseason index, but you gotta have ESPN Insider to view...if you just want to see how the index works, you can look at previous years' here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei)

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus - The F+ Index, which is a nifty meta-analytic combination of S&P+ and FEI (this is only done later in the season when there is enough data for it to actually be meaningful)

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10935532/florida-state-seminoles-lead-2014-preseason-football-power-index-ratings - Alok Pattani's FPI, which is OK. It's a decent analytic but the FPI tends to work better for NFL because part of the index is based on a team's performance from the previous few seasons, which is a problem in college for obvious reasons.

 

Thanks. I'll have to take a look at those.

 

RE: Florida's performance, you may be right. FWIW, a coworker of mine went to UT and feels confident if they can get past Utah St, then they can handle UF and will make it back to a bowl this year. I have doubts about that, but we'll see.

 

Unless Butch and his staff are considerably better coaches than I think they are, my guess is 6-6 is best case scenario (wins over Utah St, Ark St, UF, UTC, UK, Vandy). I'm not a big fan of Butch's staff though.

 

And I'll echo Tim's sentiment - welcome to the board! Definitely some good input from you.

[fiver]

Starting LG Alex Kozan is out for the year with a back injury. He was freshmen all-American first team last year and preseason all-SEC this year...one of the 5 most talented players on Auburn's team. Starting WDE Carl Lawson is likely out for the year, also one of AU's top 5 talented players. Auburn was probably due a bad break or two after the good fortune last season. Also, qb Nick Marshall will not start the opener against Arkansas after receiving a citation for marijuana possession this summer. I doubt he sits out more than the first quarter, half at most, and shouldn't affect the 20+ point spread by much...

[shnsajax]

I really hope Les Miles gets [expletive] all season for being the pus that he is with this decision. Truly pathetic but on par with the SEC.

[Andy]

I really hope Les Miles gets [expletive] all season for being the pus that he is with this decision. Truly pathetic but on par with the SEC.

Which decision are we referring to?

[shnsajax]

Reinstating Jalen Mills because his charge of felony assult was reduced to a misdemeanor. It was first reported that he let team vote and they voted for him to not to be suspended at all. That might not be true now, so I might have jumped the gun on that.

[Andy]

Not sure where to put this, but the judge hearing the O'Bannon case ruled against the NCAA today. However, her injunction doesn't sound all that 'damaging' to the current system.

 

A federal judge ruled Friday that the NCAA's rules prohibiting athletes from being paid for use of their names, images and likeness violate antitrust law. The ruling in the five-year case of the Ed O'Bannon lawsuit allows for trust funds to be established for athletes to share in licensing revenue.

 

In a 99-page opinion, U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken issued an injunction “that will enjoin the NCAA from enforcing any rules or bylaws that would prohibit its member schools and conferences from offering their FBS football or Division I basketball recruits a limited share of the revenues generated from the use of their names, images, and likenesses in addition to a full grant-in-aid.” Wilken said the injunction will not prevent the NCAA from implementing rules capping the amount of money that may be paid to college athletes while they are enrolled in school, but the NCAA will not be allowed to set the cap below the cost of attendance.

 

The injunction will also prohibit the NCAA from “enforcing any rules to prevent its member schools and conferences from offering to deposit a limited share of licensing revenue in trust for their FBS football and Division I basketball recruits, payable when they leave school or their eligibility expires,” Wilken wrote. Her injunction will allow the NCAA to set a cap on the money held in that trust, but prohibits the NCAA's cap to be less than $5,000 for every year an athlete remains academically eligible to compete.

 

All of this is, of course, pending appeals, but this all seems very reasonable to me.

[snoodmonger]

Michigan WR cold-[expletive] dude on camera, breaking his jaw in 3 places.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24657907/police-video-shows-michigan-wr-csonte-york-punch-man-outside-bar

 

Ugly to see. Have to assume his career at Michigan is over.

[Andy]

Michigan WR cold-[expletive] dude on camera, breaking his jaw in 3 places.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24657907/police-video-shows-michigan-wr-csonte-york-punch-man-outside-bar

 

Ugly to see. Have to assume his career at Michigan is over.

Les Miles doesn't understand why Hoke isn't putting it to a vote.

[sneakypower]

Michigan WR cold-[expletive] dude on camera, breaking his jaw in 3 places.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24657907/police-video-shows-michigan-wr-csonte-york-punch-man-outside-bar

 

Ugly to see. Have to assume his career at Michigan is over.

he's been suspended indefinitely for a couple weeks now, but yeah, i fully expect him to never suit up for Michigan again and if he somehow does i'll be pretty outraged

[ConstableRabbit]

Venric Mark to transfer; Christian Jones to miss the season with a knee injury. God damnit.

[Andy]

In before schadenfreude - ND found more academic fraud in an internal investigation. DaVaris Daniels (who already sat out the spring semester because of academics, way to go, pal), KeiVarae Russell (All-American level talented CB), Ishaq Williams and Kendall Moore, all starters, are gone.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/2014/08/15/notre-dame-fighting-irish.html

[NewUserName]

It looks like ND is/has been aggressive on this issue, hopefully no coaches are involved.

 

But another example of being careful before anyone starts pointing fingers at another college fb/bb program...chances are it is just a matter of time before your school/players get in trouble for something

[Smack]

In before schadenfreude - ND found more academic fraud in an internal investigation. DaVaris Daniels (who already sat out the spring semester because of academics, way to go, pal), KeiVarae Russell (All-American level talented CB), Ishaq Williams and Kendall Moore, all starters, are gone.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/2014/08/15/notre-dame-fighting-irish.html

 

DaVaris Daniels is Phillip Daniels's kid. (the ex-Bear)

[Andy]

Clarifying the earlier post and contrary to Fox Sports' report, the 4 mentioned players are not (yet) gone, but they will be held out of practice and competition until the investigation is complete.

[Guest]

And those guys will get a bigger punishment than Prince Shembo ever did.

[sneakypower]

Michigan WR cold-[expletive] dude on camera, breaking his jaw in 3 places.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24657907/police-video-shows-michigan-wr-csonte-york-punch-man-outside-bar

 

Ugly to see. Have to assume his career at Michigan is over.

• Nick Baumgardner @nickbaumgardner
  Michigan announces that Csont'e York has been dismissed from the program.

 

 

good.

[hawkeyecub]

Braxton Miller reportedly hurt his shoulder today with some reports saying he might be out all year.

[Derwood]

Braxton Miller reportedly hurt his shoulder today with some reports saying he might be out all year.

 

he's been recovering from shoulder surgery and hasn't practiced much.

 

local media pretty much admits that OSU is at most an 8 win team without Miller. If he's out, they're screwed

[sneakypower]

and that's why you always declare for the draft

[Ryne Ween]

8 wins for OSU? I could QB that squad to 9 wins with their talent and schedule. Looks they have a 6'1 220lb 4 star redshirt freshman who was a 4 star despite not playing his season season due to injury. I know nothing about this guy but in general the next man up in any good program is better than people expect. He doesn't need to be nearly as good as miller if their defense improves.

 

Still think OSU is a threat to vie for a spot in the final 4.

[Derwood]

8 wins for OSU? I could QB that squad to 9 wins with their talent and schedule. Looks they have a 6'1 220lb 4 star redshirt freshman who was a 4 star despite not playing his season season due to injury. I know nothing about this guy but in general the next man up in any good program is better than people expect. He doesn't need to be nearly as good as miller if their defense improves.

 

Still think OSU is a threat to vie for a spot in the final 4.

 

No way. They won't even win the division without Miller. Michigan State fans have to be loving this right now.