Wrigley Renovation Thread

[davell]

All I saw was he said he didn't know when the baseball budget would be able to go back up. Once again making it appear as if Theo hasn't been able to make major moved to this point. We have some money coming off though, some chesp guys that are reasonably productive, so we should be able to make a high profile move or two and keep the budget in the same vicinity it is now.

 

Well this is [expletive] pathetic.

I wouldn't argue that at all. I'm just tired of people putting the blame on Theo, when its extremely likely he's not had a true choice in spending more. To me, the fact I honestly think we've got a realistic shot at contention next year, speaks very highly of our FO, given what I think is a [expletive] payroll cap, that Theo didn't see coming immediately, when he got here.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even if we give him a pass on not spending, they've done a fairly poor job on the cheap pickups, too. And it's not as if he wasn't allowed to spend a dime. We've got $50m in new free agents on this team.

 

It's been nothing like his early Boston tenure, where he was scooping up 3-WAR players for free left and right.

[jersey cubs fan]

All I saw was he said he didn't know when the baseball budget would be able to go back up. Once again making it appear as if Theo hasn't been able to make major moved to this point. We have some money coming off though, some chesp guys that are reasonably productive, so we should be able to make a high profile move or two and keep the budget in the same vicinity it is now.

 

Well this is [expletive] pathetic.

I wouldn't argue that at all. I'm just tired of people putting the blame on Theo, when its extremely likely he's not had a true choice in spending more. To me, the fact I honestly think we've got a realistic shot at contention next year, speaks very highly of our FO, given what I think is a [expletive] payroll cap, that Theo didn't see coming immediately, when he got here.

 

Theo has made it clear the past several months that he does not want to spend money right now.

[Guest]

Even if we give him a pass on not spending, they've done a fairly poor job on the cheap pickups, too. And it's not as if he wasn't allowed to spend a dime. We've got $50m in new free agents on this team.

 

It's been nothing like his early Boston tenure, where he was scooping up 3-WAR players for free left and right.

 

Since the sample size is clearly already significant, Nate Schierholtz is on pace for like 4.5 WAR without taking into account lack of playing time for platoon... probably more in the 3 range when you do.

 

Edwin Jackson is already good for half a win.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Since the sample size is clearly already significant, Nate Schierholtz is on pace for like 4.5 WAR without taking into account lack of playing time for platoon... probably more in the 3 range when you do.

 

Edwin Jackson is already good for half a win.

 

I was mostly referring to last season. We'll see where it ends up this season.

[Guest]

All I saw was he said he didn't know when the baseball budget would be able to go back up. Once again making it appear as if Theo hasn't been able to make major moved to this point. We have some money coming off though, some chesp guys that are reasonably productive, so we should be able to make a high profile move or two and keep the budget in the same vicinity it is now.

 

Well this is [expletive] pathetic.

I wouldn't argue that at all. I'm just tired of people putting the blame on Theo, when its extremely likely he's not had a true choice in spending more. To me, the fact I honestly think we've got a realistic shot at contention next year, speaks very highly of our FO, given what I think is a [expletive] payroll cap, that Theo didn't see coming immediately, when he got here.

 

Theo has made it clear the past several months that he does not want to spend money right now.

 

Would he be saying different if he just couldn't?

 

Actually, he has hinted as much (that he can't).

[davell]

Even if we give him a pass on not spending, they've done a fairly poor job on the cheap pickups, too. And it's not as if he wasn't allowed to spend a dime. We've got $50m in new free agents on this team.

 

It's been nothing like his early Boston tenure, where he was scooping up 3-WAR players for free left and right.

Eh, I'll disagree somewhat. I definitely wouldn't classify it as poor, thats for certain. Last year, the onky FA we signed to major league deals were DeJesus, Maholm, Wood, Soler, and Concepcion. DeJesus has been solid enough. Maholm was very solid and brought us back what could turn out to be an excellent return. Wood didn't pan out, but it really seemed he was forced down Theo's throat by Ricketts anyway. Soler looks the part right now and Concepcion was either a horrible mistake or we got unlucky with the mono thing.(likely both) This year, its too early to judge obviously. But you can go through each of them individually and understand why the move was made. I figure we'll get a very solid return on that 50 mill overall. But you are right, he's not picking up the 3 WAR for nothing types-Of course, when he did it a decade ago, it was basically him, Beane, maybe a couple of others and about 25 dumbasses he was competing against. Things have changed and other teams have gotten smarter and leveled the field somewhat. I still figure though, that when a new market inefficiency emerges, we'll be at the very top of teams that exploits it until the rest figure it out.

[Guest]

Since the sample size is clearly already significant, Nate Schierholtz is on pace for like 4.5 WAR without taking into account lack of playing time for platoon... probably more in the 3 range when you do.

 

Edwin Jackson is already good for half a win.

 

I was mostly referring to last season. We'll see where it ends up this season.

 

They got Anthony Rizzo for a relief pitching prospect with a history of arm injuries. That's pretty damn good for last year regardless of what their scrap heap free agents did (not that DeJesus was some massive failure for what he signed for).

[bukie]

Since the sample size is clearly already significant, Nate Schierholtz is on pace for like 4.5 WAR without taking into account lack of playing time for platoon... probably more in the 3 range when you do.

 

Edwin Jackson is already good for half a win.

 

I was mostly referring to last season. We'll see where it ends up this season.

 

They got Anthony Rizzo for a relief pitching prospect with a history of arm injuries. That's pretty damn good for last year regardless of what their scrap heap free agents did (not that DeJesus was some massive failure for what he signed for).

Plus Paul Maholm, who was then flipped for a top 50 pitching prospect.

[Guest]

Since the sample size is clearly already significant, Nate Schierholtz is on pace for like 4.5 WAR without taking into account lack of playing time for platoon... probably more in the 3 range when you do.

 

Edwin Jackson is already good for half a win.

 

I was mostly referring to last season. We'll see where it ends up this season.

 

They got Anthony Rizzo for a relief pitching prospect with a history of arm injuries. That's pretty damn good for last year regardless of what their scrap heap free agents did (not that DeJesus was some massive failure for what he signed for).

Plus Paul Maholm, who was then flipped for a top 50 pitching prospect.

 

I knew I was forgetting someone and I just couldn't come up with it.

 

Now Kyle is going to nitpick characterizing Vizcaino that way.

[davell]

There's moves I wish we would(and could) have made, don't get me wrong. Cespedes. Period. It was our job to know he was ready ASAP, we evidently thought otherwise, that was a mistake. Darvish? With rumors going around that we wanted to bid more but couldn't(on Ryu as well), I'll give that one a pass. And the Garza situation, which I guess is still TBD, although if he gets dealt, it can't be for as much as what we could have gotten last offseason.

[SouthSideRyan]

All I saw was he said he didn't know when the baseball budget would be able to go back up. Once again making it appear as if Theo hasn't been able to make major moved to this point. We have some money coming off though, some chesp guys that are reasonably productive, so we should be able to make a high profile move or two and keep the budget in the same vicinity it is now.

 

Well this is [expletive] pathetic.

I wouldn't argue that at all. I'm just tired of people putting the blame on Theo, when its extremely likely he's not had a true choice in spending more. To me, the fact I honestly think we've got a realistic shot at contention next year, speaks very highly of our FO, given what I think is a [expletive] payroll cap, that Theo didn't see coming immediately, when he got here.

 

Well Theo won't be staying past that first contract if Ricketts told him he could spend money and then said, nah nevermind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even if we give him a pass on not spending, they've done a fairly poor job on the cheap pickups, too. And it's not as if he wasn't allowed to spend a dime. We've got $50m in new free agents on this team.

 

It's been nothing like his early Boston tenure, where he was scooping up 3-WAR players for free left and right.

Eh, I'll disagree somewhat. I definitely wouldn't classify it as poor, thats for certain. Last year, the onky FA we signed to major league deals were DeJesus, Maholm, Wood, Soler, and Concepcion. DeJesus has been solid enough. Maholm was very solid and brought us back what could turn out to be an excellent return. Wood didn't pan out, but it really seemed he was forced down Theo's throat by Ricketts anyway. Soler looks the part right now and Concepcion was either a horrible mistake or we got unlucky with the mono thing.(likely both) This year, its too early to judge obviously. But you can go through each of them individually and understand why the move was made. I figure we'll get a very solid return on that 50 mill overall. But you are right, he's not picking up the 3 WAR for nothing types-Of course, when he did it a decade ago, it was basically him, Beane, maybe a couple of others and about 25 dumbasses he was competing against. Things have changed and other teams have gotten smarter and leveled the field somewhat. I still figure though, that when a new market inefficiency emerges, we'll be at the very top of teams that exploits it until the rest figure it out.

 

Mostly agree. I don't have a huge problem with the way they've spent the money they've spent (other than the weird fascination with Cuban pitchers).

 

They've just done a shockingly terrible job at picking up replacement-level or better players for the back 2/3rds of the roster.

 

The 2004 Red Sox employed 16 negative bWAR players for a sum total of -3.7 WAR.

 

The 2012 Cubs matched that with just Volstad and Mather. They ended up bleeding more than 15 wins from subreplacement players, and it wasn't only the late-season post-firesale callups (though in theory, those guys should average out to replacement level, too).

 

The 2013 Cubs already have 14 such players for a combined -3.2 wins against replacement.

 

So even if they don't have the David Ortiz/Bill Mueller/Bronson Arroyo/Mark Bellhorn magic anymore (about $7m or so in acquisition cost, 11.8 WAR between them in 2004), I'd like to think we could do better than we've done in the bargain bin.

 

I'm less confident than you that they'll be able to find the next market inefficiency just because they were at the cutting edge of the last one, but that's based on nothing more than feelings on either side anyway.

[Guest]

There's moves I wish we would(and could) have made, don't get me wrong. Cespedes. Period. It was our job to know he was ready ASAP, we evidently thought otherwise, that was a mistake. Darvish? With rumors going around that we wanted to bid more but couldn't(on Ryu as well), I'll give that one a pass. And the Garza situation, which I guess is still TBD, although if he gets dealt, it can't be for as much as what we could have gotten last offseason.

 

If we're looking at things in hindsight, though, the best package we heard of re: Garza was one headlined by Jacob Turner, which I'm not sure is worth lamenting all that much at this point.

 

And signing someone like Prince (in hindsight) would have been pretty shitty compared to what we did do at 1B.

 

Missing on Cespedes and Darvish suck pretty bad, though. Same with Puig (but on a much lower scale).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They got Anthony Rizzo for a relief pitching prospect with a history of arm injuries. That's pretty damn good for last year regardless of what their scrap heap free agents did (not that DeJesus was some massive failure for what he signed for).

 

It's worked out awesome for us. The relief pitcher wasn't chopped liver, but I'm perfectly glad to mark that as one in their column.

 

I don't want to get into the semantics of the term, but I'm talking about the true freebies for the most part, or guys like Ortiz who massively overplayed their contract.

 

When you go into that $5-7m range, sometimes you get Maholms and sometimes you get Bakers. They've done OK in that regard. Not great, but OK.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I keep coming back to the season math.

 

I know there's the "David Price trade" alternative viewpoint, but it sure looks like to me that 2014 won't be much better and that they are focusing on 2015 at the earliest.

 

So that's three seasons thrown away in pursuit of this plan. We're being implicitly promised a Boston like run, something like the six playoff appearances in nine seasons he had there. But I'm not seeing why, with a division full of reasonably smart baseball men and a lack of the market inefficiencies he exploited on his last run, something like 4/9 or 5/9 might not be more likely.

 

That just doesn't seem good enough to justify the three lost seasons.

 

Of course, some think that those seasons were going to be lost either way. And it's possible that we'll get 7/9 or better. In which case, I'll tip my cap. But right now, it just doesn't look like we're headed that way.

[davell]

It just makes July that much more important. Hell, if Tampa doesn't get going, I guess its possible they could move Price at the deadline. Therefore, I hope they start playing better. I figure Stanton gets dealt over the offseason. We'll have around 40 mill coming off the books to re-spend over the offseason, with less spots to spend it on. But guys like Barney, Schierholtz, Wood, Villanueva- If some of them get dealt for something other than a,major league return, given our situation, I think 2014 looks much harder to accomplish a true playoff push. But if those guys stick, 40 mill could get us Choo or Ellsbury, Price(if he's able to be traded for, or some other solid pitcher anyway.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The pickings are very, very slim for pitching. If it's not Price, Garza is probably one of the top ones left. It'd be very easy to get shut out entirely on good starting pitching, and very hard to imagine not only replacing/resigning Garza but also adding someone else on top of it.

 

I'm guessing we'll get Garza's replacement (or Garza himself) and probably an Ellsbury-type outfielder to replace DeJesus and/or Soriano.

 

That doesn't really make me think the 2014 Cubs are serious contenders. Maybe .500 with a slim chance, a tiny bit better than this year, if they don't Lillibridge any roster spots too hard.

 

Mostly, the 2014 Cubs just look a ton like the 2013 Cubs to me.

[Ryne Ween]

I remember reading a quote from Epstein a year or two ago where he was reminiscing this kickass convo he had with Hoyer or maybe somebody else back at the old shop about "what if it was only our guys" and then naming pedroia ellsbury and a bunch of other guys they drafted and how cool itd be if they just built a team with there own guys. That team would have blown and now im afraid hes trying to do this, hes not good at it, it'd take forever and probably wont succeed.

[sneakypower]

I remember reading a quote from Epstein a year or two ago where he was reminiscing this kickass convo he had with Hoyer or maybe somebody else back at the old shop about "what if it was only our guys" and then naming pedroia ellsbury and a bunch of other guys they drafted and how cool itd be if they just built a team with there own guys. That team would have blown and now im afraid hes trying to do this, hes not good at it, it'd take forever and probably wont succeed.

well, then they've already blown it with the Edwin Jackson signing

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

So I shouldn't be worried that in 2018 the entire Cubs 25-man roster is going to be comprised of Epstein drafted players? Phew.

[Backtobanks]

I keep coming back to the season math.

 

I know there's the "David Price trade" alternative viewpoint, but it sure looks like to me that 2014 won't be much better and that they are focusing on 2015 at the earliest.

 

So that's three seasons thrown away in pursuit of this plan. We're being implicitly promised a Boston like run, something like the six playoff appearances in nine seasons he had there. But I'm not seeing why, with a division full of reasonably smart baseball men and a lack of the market inefficiencies he exploited on his last run, something like 4/9 or 5/9 might not be more likely.

 

That just doesn't seem good enough to justify the three lost seasons.

 

Of course, some think that those seasons were going to be lost either way. And it's possible that we'll get 7/9 or better. In which case, I'll tip my cap. But right now, it just doesn't look like we're headed that way.

 

I agree that it shouldn't take until 2015 to build a team that has a chance at a playoff spot. Times have changed and just because you've got a really smart FO doesn't mean that you will be able to make all the moves you want to make. More teams are locking up their young stars with long-term contracts.

[J.R.]

Extended beer sales ... Crane blinded them with the Leviathan on Waveland, then slipped in this gem.

[dew1679666265]

There's moves I wish we would(and could) have made, don't get me wrong. Cespedes. Period. It was our job to know he was ready ASAP, we evidently thought otherwise, that was a mistake. Darvish? With rumors going around that we wanted to bid more but couldn't(on Ryu as well), I'll give that one a pass. And the Garza situation, which I guess is still TBD, although if he gets dealt, it can't be for as much as what we could have gotten last offseason.

 

Not to beat a dead horse too much, but I'd throw Wei-Yin Chen into the should have signed group. Him and Cespedes are the two biggest misses to me.

[davell]

Yeah, I forgot about him. His pricetag wasn't high whatsoever. That said, Travis Wood could possibly give us his production. Another lefty in the rotation would be fine by me though. I forgot to mention Puig as well, who would be an excellent replacement on the horizon for Soriano.