Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Other than being Kyle, what is it you don't like about Garza's performance going forward.

 

"Don't like" is the wrong term. I like it just fine. Just not at the cost (in dollars, of a market-price extension) and the opportunity cost (compared to what we could get in a trade).

 

He's exiting his prime years, he's never had a season like the one he just had, and he's suddenly relying on a ton of breaking stuff. Classic sell high candidate.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's exiting his prime years,

 

No he's not, not yet at least.

[SouthSideRyan]

Other than being Kyle, what is it you don't like about Garza's performance going forward.

 

"Don't like" is the wrong term. I like it just fine. Just not at the cost (in dollars, of a market-price extension) and the opportunity cost (compared to what we could get in a trade).

 

He's exiting his prime years, he's never had a season like the one he just had, and he's suddenly relying on a ton of breaking stuff. Classic sell high candidate.

 

But what we could get in a trade from Toronto or Boston sucks.

 

ETA: Same with Detroit if they won't budge on Turner.

[Tracer Bullet]

Other than being Kyle, what is it you don't like about Garza's performance going forward.

 

"Don't like" is the wrong term. I like it just fine. Just not at the cost (in dollars, of a market-price extension) and the opportunity cost (compared to what we could get in a trade).

 

He's exiting his prime years, he's never had a season like the one he just had, and he's suddenly relying on a ton of breaking stuff. Classic sell high candidate.

 

He also moved from the ALE to the NLC. This may well be the standard going forward. And it's not as if he's a good candidate to fall off a cliff upon turning 30. There's little risk to finding out if the Tigers won't give up the sort of package we've discussed in this thread.

[davell]

I'm pulling for Oswalt to sign with Texas or the Cards, so Boston, Toronto, and Detroit are all still looking for a starter.

 

I don't want anything that was rumored from Boston or Toronto, so I don't care about them. You seem really intent on trading Garza for whatever the best offer is, and I'm really struggling to understand why.

 

Yeah, I guess I am really wanting him dealt. I'll agree that Boston isn't ideal, since I want pitching in return. I disagree completely on Toronto though, I'd take a solid offer from them over anyone else's honestly. I like Turner alot, but I think a package from Toronto can easily beat Turner and Smyly or Crosby.

 

My reasoning for wanting him dealt is we're probably not contending until 2014. He'll be 30 then, which isn't bad obviously, but I'm not sold that he didn't just have his career year either. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't trade him for less than what we gave up for him, in fact I want at least a little more. But, I think we're paying him 22-25 mill over 2012 and 2013 when we won't be contending,in all likelihood, and he may or may not be coming out of his prime and making even more money from that point forward.

[SouthSideRyan]

So we sit around and wait for Lincecum and King Felix to never hit free agency then?

[davell]

So we sit around and wait for Lincecum and King Felix to never hit free agency then?

 

I don't think I'm understanding this honestly. For me, those 2 guys are elite. Garza's very good. Neither of those guys will hit FA before we're contending most likely. We'd be paying Garza for at least 2 seasons(in my eyes) where we won't be contending. When the time comes to ante up for FA, I want and think we will certainly do it. But, it'd help us out even more, if a piece or two we've acquired for Garza has turned into another cheap asset that's a bigtime help for us.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So we sit around and wait for Lincecum and King Felix to never hit free agency then?

 

Yes. We trade Garza because we hope to sign one of two elite starting pitchers who may someday be free agents. That's the motivation.

[treebird]

So we sit around and wait for Lincecum and King Felix to never hit free agency then?

 

or they actually hit free agency and we scream bloody murder and thank god that we stayed away when they sign contracts that suggest they may get more than five million dollars per WAR.

[SouthSideRyan]

A staff full of Travis Woods is great when you're not really trying. Somewhere down the road we're going to need very good players, so why are we in a hurry to trade away one of our very good players for uninspiring packages of guys whose best case is the guy we just traded away?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A staff full of Travis Woods is great when you're not really trying. Somewhere down the road we're going to need very good players, so why are we in a hurry to trade away one of our very good players for uninspiring packages of guys whose best case is the guy we just traded away?

 

WTH does "uninspiring" mean? The purpose of the organization's move are not to make you feel all tingly and inspired. If you need that feeling, here you go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0AiN8vrn9Y

 

If we need a very good starting pitcher in 2014 or whenever, and the choices are projecting Matt Garza from where he is now, or taking our chances with the free agent and trade markets in 2014, I'll take my chances with the markets.

[SouthSideRyan]

[expletive], Kyle really?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Thick as you are, pay attention! My words are a matter of pride.

[davell]

A staff full of Travis Woods is great when you're not really trying. Somewhere down the road we're going to need very good players, so why are we in a hurry to trade away one of our very good players for uninspiring packages of guys whose best case is the guy we just traded away?

 

Personally, because I think Turner/2014 may be better than Garza/2014, especially when you've also got 15 mill extra to play with and spend elsewhere. Toronto is admittedly different, in my eyes, as the guys I really, really like are further away and possibly may be making their major league debuts sometime IN 2014. But, I think they have at least the same, if not more, upside than Turner, and my thinking is you could possibly get more than one of them, because of their being so far away. That said, I like them because they'd also become extremely valuable assets we could trade for an elite player at some point as well. More in line with contending in 2014, if they're not ready by then to truly help.

[SouthSideRyan]

I said I was fine with a Turner package.

 

Re: Trading the prospects we get for an elite player, you're once again counting on a guy becoming available at just the right time. And if he's not available, well I hope those guys become better than Travis Wood.

[davell]

I think that what we're attempting to do, by the way, is acquire as many top notch minor leaguers as humanly possible. Some of which will wind up eventually helping us, but most of who I fully expect to be dealt for young, cheaper major league talent. Then fill in a few spots with big money FA. But, I fully expect us to be the team trading for guys like McCutchen, Price, Upton(if he's ever available). Young, difference makers that are maybe unaffordable by the small market teams. So, when we have to "overpay" for a Lincecum, Felix, or whoever type, we've made it for it by getting great production cheaper in other areas.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I said I was fine with a Turner package.

 

Re: Trading the prospects we get for an elite player, you're once again counting on a guy becoming available at just the right time. And if he's not available, well I hope those guys become better than Travis Wood.

 

Well, yes, there's always risk. There's risk to every decision.

 

By holding on to Garza, you are gambling that Garza is the pitcher you hope he is, and not the guy who averaged 2.5 fWAR from 2008 to 2010, including 1.6 in 2010.

 

We are talking about a pitcher who is one season removed from a year that barely matched Darwin Barney's projection.

 

Sell high.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Hairyducked Idiot

[SouthSideRyan]

God, we better wind up with the best farm system ever if we're planning on using much of it to acquire expensive players.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

God, we better wind up with the best farm system ever if we're planning on using much of it to acquire expensive players.

 

The owner came in, talked a ton about building the farm system, and threw a bunch of money at it. Then he went out and hired a bunch of guys for the front office who have a history of excellent drafting, and he said that's why they were hired.

 

So yeah, that's kind of the plan.

[davell]

I said I was fine with a Turner package.

 

Re: Trading the prospects we get for an elite player, you're once again counting on a guy becoming available at just the right time. And if he's not available, well I hope those guys become better than Travis Wood.

 

 

I see where you're coming from now. Bird in a hand basically. I just figure there's always going to be SOMEONE out there to trade for or sign, I guess. Can't remember an offseason where there wasn't good pitching available at all. Some of my reservations are because I don't trust Garza to be as good as he was in 2011, rightly or wrongly. But, I think Toronto, Detroit, and even KC all have packages I'd be very content with.

[Guest]

God, we better wind up with the best farm system ever if we're planning on using much of it to acquire expensive players.

 

The owner came in, talked a ton about building the farm system, and threw a bunch of money at it. Then he went out and hired a bunch of guys for the front office who have a history of excellent drafting, and he said that's why they were hired.

 

So yeah, that's kind of the plan.

 

Dual fronts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Dual fronts.

 

We got Paul Maholm. I don't know how much more you want on the MLB front than that. Heck, he's only averaged half a fWAR less than Garza the last four seasons.

[KingCubsFan]

God, we better wind up with the best farm system ever if we're planning on using much of it to acquire expensive players.

 

The owner came in, talked a ton about building the farm system, and threw a bunch of money at it. Then he went out and hired a bunch of guys for the front office who have a history of excellent drafting, and he said that's why they were hired.

 

So yeah, that's kind of the plan.

 

Dual fronts.

I think it's pretty clear by now that future>>>>>present in Theo's mind. The whole "dual fronts" thing probably had more to do with keeping fans interested until we're actually good.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe the parallel fronts were Des Moines and Daytona. Both look pretty intriguing this year, and have been significantly improved by offseason moves.

[SouthSideRyan]

God, we better wind up with the best farm system ever if we're planning on using much of it to acquire expensive players.

 

The owner came in, talked a ton about building the farm system, and threw a bunch of money at it. Then he went out and hired a bunch of guys for the front office who have a history of excellent drafting, and he said that's why they were hired.

 

So yeah, that's kind of the plan.

 

Dual fronts.

I think it's pretty clear by now that future>>>>>present in Theo's mind. The whole "dual fronts" thing probably had more to do with keeping fans interested until we're actually good.

 

Most fans thought we needed to burn down Wrigley with the team inside and play nothing but minor league players for the next 3 years. (Maybe Barney would be spared)