Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[TruffleShuffle]

could philly really afford three 20 million a year pitchers?

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7752571/cole-hamels-agent-philadelphia-phillies-discussing-extension

 

whether they can afford it or not, there have been plenty of rumors this offseason that the two sides are close to a deal. sounds like the phillies are fine with paying cain/santana type money, they just don't want to go 6 years on a deal.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

That article says they haven't even gone to 5 years. I really think Hamels hits the market, but it's a lot of wishful thinking.

[TruffleShuffle]

trust me, hamels doesn't care about being "third fiddle" or whatever. he's very laid back and probably prefers to have another guy on his team serve as the ace.

 

if he does reach FA, i would guess that the cubs would have to massively overpay to buy him away from the dodgers. he's a SoCal native and kershaw is already the ace there.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Btw: Porcello remains the preferable haul to Turner.

 

You can't be serious.

[Clem Fandango]

Btw: Porcello remains the preferable haul to Turner.

 

You can't be serious.

 

Considering that Turner has recently developed some shoulder concerns, it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to be serious...

 

That being said, I don't approve. I like Porcello, but not as a center piece (which I think is also the general consensus of most people on this board)

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Btw: Porcello remains the preferable haul to Turner.

 

You can't be serious.

 

Yeah what an out there thing to say...Oh so fn serious. Prospect worship can be a deadly game....Porcello doesn't have less talent than Turner, he's a better athlete with better mechanics, he's already accomplished something in the majors, and now we can throw healthier in there.

 

Turner's big advantage is his youth (Porcello being an ancient 23 at some point this year) making him a shinier, newer toy, and cost when he is in the bigs...Neither issue which would be all that significant for the Cubs.

 

If we were talking a guy with significantly better stuff... Better pedigree..better SOMETHING where talent goes...then yeah I'd get it...but I can't help but think that the whole Turner love fest was and is at least somewhat based on SNTS. I think talent wise either would be a coup, but personally I think Porcello is going to be straight up better in the long run.

 

As far as headlining a trade...neither is inspiring by himself for Garza, and I'd want one of the lefties anyway...Plus someone else probably.

[Clem Fandango]

he's already accomplished something in the majors

 

Targeting Porcello would be for the same reason you target Turner: upside. Porcello still hasn't proven he's capable of being a serious threat against major league batters, despite being in the rotation for 3 years. So if you're targeting for his upside, you compare the two, and prior to Turner's shoulder scare (which he claims is fine now and doctors are saying was just a bout of tendinitis), Turner comes out in front of Porcello by a wide margin.

 

There's nothing wrong with targeting Porcello in the right deal, but to dismiss Turner in favor of him is a bit much. Of course we all want the younger guy who is near MLB ready and has more upside over the guy who has 3 years of MLB service time on his record and has yet to provide any sort of indication that he's going to break out at any minute.

[SouthSideRyan]

could philly really afford three 20 million a year pitchers?

 

Not to mention the hilarious contract they gave to Ryan Howard's corpse.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah what an out there thing to say...Oh so fn serious. Prospect worship can be a deadly game....Porcello doesn't have less talent than Turner, he's a better athlete with better mechanics, he's already accomplished something in the majors, and now we can throw healthier in there.

 

I'm not entirely against Porcello in a Garza trade, but my problem with him is that in his 3 years in the majors, he's posted a K/9 of 4.8. He doesn't strike people out at all. Obviously we don't know that Turner will be able to strike guys out in the majors, but he struck out 7.7 over his minor league career. Porcello's K rate is so low that it's beyond the "well he's young and probably came up a bit too early" stage. That defense works if it's kind of low, his is really dreadful.

 

If it's between a guy who's completely unproven and a guy who's proven (to this point) that he can't strike guys out, my preference is going to be the guy who's unproven.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

trust me, hamels doesn't care about being "third fiddle" or whatever. he's very laid back and probably prefers to have another guy on his team serve as the ace.

 

if he does reach FA, i would guess that the cubs would have to massively overpay to buy him away from the dodgers. he's a SoCal native and kershaw is already the ace there.

 

I don't think he minds second fiddle or even 1A/1B, but third? I think Philly like anyone will have to pay up for that. Every team needs multiple "aces" anyway....Also overpaying is what happens on the open market.

 

I'm patient though...perfectly fine with Upton 2015 and Felix whenever that happens. Epstein probably likes to trade more than splurge on FAs anyway.

Edited April 3, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[El Duderino]

trust me, hamels doesn't care about being "third fiddle" or whatever. he's very laid back and probably prefers to have another guy on his team serve as the ace.

 

if he does reach FA, i would guess that the cubs would have to massively overpay to buy him away from the dodgers. he's a SoCal native and kershaw is already the ace there.

 

I don't think he minds second fiddle or even 1A/1B, but third? I think Philly like anyone will have to pay up for that. Every team needs multiple "aces" anyway....Also overpaying is what happens on the open market.

 

I'm patient though...perfectly fine with Upton 2015 and Felix whenever that happens.

 

after matt cain signing, i'm hoping for lincecum in 2014.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm not entirely against Porcello in a Garza trade, but my problem with him is that in his 3 years in the majors, he's posted a K/9 of 4.8. He doesn't strike people out at all. Obviously we don't know that Turner will be able to strike guys out in the majors, but he struck out 7.7 over his minor league career. Porcello's K rate is so low that it's beyond the "well he's young and probably came up a bit too early" stage. That defense works if it's kind of low, his is really dreadful.

 

If it's between a guy who's completely unproven and a guy who's proven (to this point) that he can't strike guys out, my preference is going to be the guy who's unproven.

 

To the K-rate: Meh. The three seasons we're talking about are at age 20, 21, and 22. His first year was a really strong rookie year (3rd in ROY voting) that ended with him taking the mound in the biggest game of the season and playing up to the moment (6 innings with some K's, really impressive game IIRC, Tigers v Twins in Minn). Call me a sucker for pedigree, but I think it's a well known fact that guys who come into this league and make an impact at a really young age are most likely to end up your studs. Porcello's gone through no major injury issues through his first three seasons, they haven't really babied him by today's standards as he's throw 170, 162, and 182 during those three seasons, and he's not not picking up K's because his stuff sucks. I think guys like Lee, Wilson, Halladay, and even our own Shark are showing that pitchers can age like a fine wine if they really stick to their craft and avoid devastating injury.

 

If Turner's K rate or stuff was THAT much better, sure. If his pedigree even matched Porcello's, maybe. If I liked how he threw the ball as much then I'd be right with you. If he had all or a couple of those things, then I'd be right with you even with this probably minor injury. Honestly Turner's biggest advantage is service time, which is a pretty sweet advantage even if the Cubs are going to be fine with money.

 

Plus, I think Shelby Miller is the only guy from that '09 first round HS pitching crop that is going to live up to the hype.

 

Edit: Will say that Turner's more comfortable with his breaking stuff.

[dew1679666265]

Has Porcello made that much of an impact so far? I'm not arguing that he's been bad by any means, but a 4.18 xFIP with that miserable K rate isn't great. The assumption would be that he would only improve on that xFIP as he gets into his prime (as you've noted, he's only 23), but is that a safe assumption? His K rate has never been very good (5.18 in his only full minor league season) and if he's simply incapable of striking guys out, how much upside does he have?

 

As a contrast, Turner has had one full minor league season and his K/9 in that season was 7.13. He also had a 7.13 and 8.5 K/9 in a couple of partial seasons. He's been much better at striking guys out than Porcello was at the same ages and levels as Porcello.

[SouthSideRyan]

Porcello will be a free agent 2 years after Garza. If the best offer you can get is based around a mediocrity like him, then maybe you should actually keep the really good pitcher.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Has Porcello made that much of an impact so far? I'm not arguing that he's been bad by any means, but a 4.18 xFIP with that miserable K rate isn't great. The assumption would be that he would only improve on that xFIP as he gets into his prime (as you've noted, he's only 23), but is that a safe assumption? His K rate has never been very good (5.18 in his only full minor league season) and if he's simply incapable of striking guys out, how much upside does he have?

 

As a contrast, Turner has had one full minor league season and his K/9 in that season was 7.13. He also had a 7.13 and 8.5 K/9 in a couple of partial seasons. He's been much better at striking guys out than Porcello was at the same ages and levels as Porcello.

 

Yes, it's well known that Ks haven't come for Porcello so far in his career. Last year he posted a career high K rate in pro ball over a full season. By xFIP he's basically been a league average pitcher for his career up to this point, he gets lots of ground balls, he doesn't walk guys (though that can improve), and he's posted 6+ fWAR as a 20, 21, and 22. This isn't a lump of coal here it's a talented arm thats still working its way around pitching in the big leagues.

 

Oh and he should pick up some more Ks in the NL anyway. I think he needs to work with a pitching coach who helps him smooth out his breaking pitches and figuring out which fastball he wants to work with. I think he should be a sinker/slider/cutter/change/curve but he could "easily" go 4seam/breakingball/change. I think there's plenty of untapped potential, he was just a little rushed is all.

[Clem Fandango]

His first year was a really strong rookie year (3rd in ROY voting) that ended with him taking the mound in the biggest game of the season and playing up to the moment (6 innings with some K's, really impressive game IIRC, Tigers v Twins in Minn). Call me a sucker for pedigree, but I think it's a well known fact that guys who come into this league and make an impact at a really young age are most likely to end up your studs.

 

You can just as easily chalk up his 2009 success to lack of scouting and luck (.258 2nd half BABIP).

 

As an aside, has anyone checked out Jacob Turner's contract details, it's somewhat interesting...

 

4 years/$5.5M (2010-13), plus 2014, 2015 club options

 

• 4 years/$5.5M (2010-13), plus 2014, 2015 club options
  
  • signed Major League contract with Detroit 8/17/09
    $4.7M signing bonus
    guaranteed salaries between $0.8M and $2.15M, based on when Turner reaches majors
    2014 and 2015:$1M club options ($0.5M in minors)
    if otherwise eligible for arbitration after 2013 or 2014, Turner may void option and file for arbitration

drafted 2009 (1-9) (Westminster Christian HS, St. Louis, Mo.)

agent: Scott Boras

ML service: 0.029

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

.277 BABIP over meaning the first half BABIP was around .300 (.296-9)...Lack of scouting wasn't in effect yet?

[dew1679666265]

Yes, it's well known that Ks haven't come for Porcello so far in his career. Last year he posted a career high K rate in pro ball over a full season. By xFIP he's basically been a league average pitcher for his career up to this point, he gets lots of ground balls, he doesn't walk guys (though that can improve), and he's posted 6+ fWAR as a 20, 21, and 22. This isn't a lump of coal here it's a talented arm thats still working its way around pitching in the big leagues.

 

Oh and he should pick up some more Ks in the NL anyway. I think he needs to work with a pitching coach who helps him smooth out his breaking pitches and figuring out which fastball he wants to work with. I think he should be a sinker/slider/cutter/change/curve but he could "easily" go 4seam/breakingball/change. I think there's plenty of untapped potential, he was just a little rushed is all.

 

I just don't see how you can completely write off an abysmal K rate without even seemingly considering it. Porcello was good in the minors and average so far in the majors at a very young age, but I think it's a very relevant question to ask exactly how much better he can get when he can't strike anybody out - in the majors or minors.

 

Then when you compare Turner to Porcello, you have Turner posting similar minor league numbers (higher ERA, better WHIP, similar BB rate) at a similar age (both were 19 at A ball), but Turner is able to strike guys out a pretty good clip. I agree that we need to be careful about favoring prospects simply because they're unproven, but Porcello has proven he can't strike guys out to this point and that's concerning for his outlook going forward. Doesn't mean he won't be good, but it very well may limit his potential.

[Guest]

Porcello will be a free agent 2 years after Garza.

 

This is really the beginning, middle, and end of the Turner v. Porcello discussion. Turner for 6 years blows away Porcello for 3+.

[Clem Fandango]

.277 BABIP over meaning the first half BABIP was around .300 (.296-9)...Lack of scouting wasn't in effect yet?

 

Considering that's around league average and his BABIP the following 2 years was .308 in 2010 and .318 in 2011? Yeah. I'd say he wasn't as good as he should've been in 2009 due to a lack of scouting, and the league had continually gotten better against him over the following 2 seasons, mostly because he brings nothing dominant to the table. He pitches in a pitchers haven half the year and pitches to contact and he still has abysmal numbers. That's not a very good sign.

 

You can argue his FIP and xFIP make him better than advertised, but even then those numbers don't jump out at you.

 

Oh, but what does jump out at me are his 2009 FIP and xFIP, you know, the year he was showcasing his talents and it wasn't luck? Yeah, those numbers were 4.77 and 4.27

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm just going to have to say that using half season splits on a 20 year old is a tough sell. All in all a guy who made an impact at 20 and has hovered around average from 20-22 is a decent bet to be something significant over the course of a 15+ year career.

 

Im a big fan of this pitcher, especially as a second contract buy. I'll hop off the trade thing since its not a great argument anyway. Still not a big fan of Turner...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Looking at the free agent market for next offseason, I guess I'm going to have to reluctantly return to the "extend Garza" camp. There's just no way to conceivably build a winner from pure scratch in the next few seasons.

[davell]

It's either extend him or get 2 TOR potential guys in the return and even then, you've got to hope one of Shark or Volstad develop into a frontline starter.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

It's either extend him or get 2 TOR potential guys in the return and even then, you've got to hope one of Shark or Volstad develop into a frontline starter.

 

How optimistic are you with Shark? I'm finding myself very optimistic. He's the best athlete on the pitching staff, he's got a big durable frame, and MUCH improved mechanics over the years. After Garza he's probably the most talented guy on the staff, and unlike Garza his athleticism probably allows for good D and pither competence with the bat in his hands.

 

Volstad I see as a possible bad 3 good 4 on a champ staff.

[davell]

I think we'll see flashes this year from Shark, but plenty of growing pains as well. With his 4 pitch mix and velo, he's certainly got a chance to be a frontline starter. That said, my guess is we'll be cautious with him and keep him in the 160ish inning area. I'm pretty sure Volstad is going to make us happy, by the way. He has "breakout" written all over him. He's at the right age to put it together and if he has a better year peripherally than last year and the other numbers catch up, I think he could wind up as having the best season out of anyone in our rotation in 2012. But I expect Garza to drop off somewhat as well, making it easier on Volstad.