Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[davell]

The A's got a top 50 prospect in AJ Cole, who's ranking will only go up, the higher he gets in their system. They got a top 100 prospect in Peacock, who's got 2 potential, or shutdown closer. They also got Norris, who was a top 100 guy for the past 2 seasons, but probably falls out this year. Still, low average, but solid OBP, good power, decent glove catcher. And they got Millone, a soft tossing lefty, that's not top 100 or anything, but knows how to pitch and will probably be excellent pitching in their stadium. If that's the Yanks offer, it's basically like us getting Peacock and Norris, with no headliner or other parts.

[82TonyM]

I am in favor of partnering with whoever will give us the best pitching prospect. Right now J Turner sounds the most intriguing. I would favor a deal with Detroit with Turner included.

[davell]

I started thinking about a Blue Jays package and what we really should expect from them, because Dierkes' last chat on MLBTR brought up Greinke as a good barometer and I have to agree. Both had/have 2 years of control. Greinke would have cost a tad more in money though. I want to say the Royals also got Betancourt in the deal, but I'm not even sure that's a positive, so I won't count anything with that. The Royals received Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke. Escobar was a former top 50 guy, who had struggled somewhat in the majors. This fits in pretty close with Drabek, even though it's obviously different positions. Cain was a B or B- prospect at best. Had been injured quite a bit. If I'm really looking at the Jays system, I'd have think one of these 3 OFers is the closest value to Cain. Moises Sierra, did this at 22 in AA: 277/342/436 with 18 homers and 16 steals. Michael Crouse, did this at 20 in A: 261/352/475 with 14 homers and 38 steals. Or maybe Marcus Knecht, did this at 21 in A: 273/377/474 with 16 homers. Odorizzi was a high profile, lower level arm, so he compares favorably to Nicolino, Syndergaard, or Hutchison. Finally, the wildcard was Jeremy Jeffress, who had a drug issue, but a bigtime arm. He was probably a solid B prospect last year. To me, Asher Wojciechowski falls into this category for the Jays. Could break out or could wind up as a longterm backend bullpen arm. Maybe Alex Sanchez or Adonys Cardona fall into this category as well. However both are extremely young, have bigtime pedigrees and may be much harder to obtain. At any rate, the more I think about all these names and all I've mentioned in regards to Toronto, a realistic package from them is probably this: Drabek/one of Hutchison, Nicolino, or Syndergaard/one of Knecht/Sierra/Crouse/one of Wojciechowski(probably) or possibly Sanchez or Cardona. A steal of a package out of this would be what Levine mentioned, McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino. Anything more than that is complete highway robbery. I am so jealous of their damn system though. Those 3 OFers who's stats I posted aren't even top 20 guys for them and any of them would probably be top 10 to 12 for us.

[Rob]

I started thinking about a Blue Jays package and what we really should expect from them, because Dierkes' last chat on MLBTR brought up Greinke as a good barometer and I have to agree. Both had/have 2 years of control. Greinke would have cost a tad more in money though. I want to say the Royals also got Betancourt in the deal, but I'm not even sure that's a positive, so I won't count anything with that. The Royals received Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke. Escobar was a former top 50 guy, who had struggled somewhat in the majors. This fits in pretty close with Drabek, even though it's obviously different positions. Cain was a B or B- prospect at best. Had been injured quite a bit. If I'm really looking at the Jays system, I'd have think one of these 3 OFers is the closest value to Cain. Moises Sierra, did this at 22 in AA: 277/342/436 with 18 homers and 16 steals. Michael Crouse, did this at 20 in A: 261/352/475 with 14 homers and 38 steals. Or maybe Marcus Knecht, did this at 21 in A: 273/377/474 with 16 homers. Odorizzi was a high profile, lower level arm, so he compares favorably to Nicolino, Syndergaard, or Hutchison. Finally, the wildcard was Jeremy Jeffress, who had a drug issue, but a bigtime arm. He was probably a solid B prospect last year. To me, Asher Wojciechowski falls into this category for the Jays. Could break out or could wind up as a longterm backend bullpen arm. Maybe Alex Sanchez or Adonys Cardona fall into this category as well. However both are extremely young, have bigtime pedigrees and may be much harder to obtain. At any rate, the more I think about all these names and all I've mentioned in regards to Toronto, a realistic package from them is probably this: Drabek/one of Hutchison, Nicolino, or Syndergaard/one of Knecht/Sierra/Crouse/one of Wojciechowski(probably) or possibly Sanchez or Cardona. A steal of a package out of this would be what Levine mentioned, McGuire/Marisnick/Nicolino. Anything more than that is complete highway robbery. I am so jealous of their damn system though. Those 3 OFers who's stats I posted aren't even top 20 guys for them and any of them would probably be top 10 to 12 for us.

 

The Brewers acquired Betancourt and more importantly paid a chunk of his salary. It was an added incentive for the trade.

[davell]

I meant to say Brewers got Betancourt. Couldn't remember his salary, so I figured it at neutral. If it was a hindrance in the deal, then add a bit more to the Royals(ours) side of the deal. Maybe take Wojciechowski and definitely turn him into Cardona or Sanchez. By they way, couple of notes, someone came on the radio and said the Jays would NOT include Syndergaard for Gio, so my guess is he's probably untouchable for us as well. Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

[davearm2]

Or just leave Marmol and the cash out of it. SD's price for replacing an old, expensive 2B with a younger, cheaper one is Rizzo.

 

this has to be a typo or something, you really didn't just say rizzo and hudson for barney

Hey Barney is no great shakes but he's a guy that's league average for league min $, with several years of team control.

 

Meanwhile, Hudson's value is in the red, especially for a club like SD.

 

That deal is very reasonable so long as your opinion of Rizzo is somewhere south of awesome.

[fan_in_China]

While we are on Blue Jays talk and (crazy?) Rizzo talk I have my answer to what I would want to deal Garza for. I know few will share my opinion, but I would prefer to go after AA or AAA bats rather than A pitchers. Those pitchers have an awful attrition rate.

 

Jays get: Garza and Russell (they could use a lefty for their pen)

Cubs get: Rizzo, Gose, and some kid Hoyer seems to overvalue

Pads get: Hutchison, McNutt, Ha, and Chad Jenkins

 

Jays get their guy and a useful part for some blocked guys. Cubs get 2 major league ready bats that could bring some excitement next year. The Pads move a B + prospect for a B+, B-, and 2 C+ guys (using Sickels site and just guessing for the Cubs players), so they get some value for a guy they just blocked.

 

I was reading a Fangraphs chat the other day and they mod said Gose, Hutch, and Perez was fair value for Garza. I exchanged Perez for Jenkins because I had heard the Pads were looking for pitching depth. You could replace him with a number of players like Cecil, Osuna, or Carreno.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While we are on Blue Jays talk and (crazy?) Rizzo talk I have my answer to what I would want to deal Garza for. I know few will share my opinion, but I would prefer to go after AA or AAA bats rather than A pitchers. Those pitchers have an awful attrition rate.

 

Jays get: Garza and Russell (they could use a lefty for their pen)

Cubs get: Rizzo, Gose, and some kid Hoyer seems to overvalue

Pads get: Hutchison, McNutt, Ha, and Chad Jenkins

 

Jays get their guy and a useful part for some blocked guys. Cubs get 2 major league ready bats that could bring some excitement next year. The Pads move a B + prospect for a B+, B-, and 2 C+ guys (using Sickels site and just guessing for the Cubs players), so they get some value for a guy they just blocked.

 

I was reading a Fangraphs chat the other day and they mod said Gose, Hutch, and Perez was fair value for Garza. I exchanged Perez for Jenkins because I had heard the Pads were looking for pitching depth. You could replace him with a number of players like Cecil, Osuna, or Carreno.

 

So we trade Garza, a top prospect, another good prospect, and our best remaining lefty pen arm for a lesser package than we would have expected for Garza alone? Let's put this one in the no pile.

[fan_in_China]

While we are on Blue Jays talk and (crazy?) Rizzo talk I have my answer to what I would want to deal Garza for. I know few will share my opinion, but I would prefer to go after AA or AAA bats rather than A pitchers. Those pitchers have an awful attrition rate.

 

Jays get: Garza and Russell (they could use a lefty for their pen)

Cubs get: Rizzo, Gose, and some kid Hoyer seems to overvalue

Pads get: Hutchison, McNutt, Ha, and Chad Jenkins

 

Jays get their guy and a useful part for some blocked guys. Cubs get 2 major league ready bats that could bring some excitement next year. The Pads move a B + prospect for a B+, B-, and 2 C+ guys (using Sickels site and just guessing for the Cubs players), so they get some value for a guy they just blocked.

 

I was reading a Fangraphs chat the other day and they mod said Gose, Hutch, and Perez was fair value for Garza. I exchanged Perez for Jenkins because I had heard the Pads were looking for pitching depth. You could replace him with a number of players like Cecil, Osuna, or Carreno.

 

So we trade Garza, a top prospect, another good prospect, and our best remaining lefty pen arm for a lesser package than we would have expected for Garza alone? Let's put this one in the no pile.

 

I think Rizzo > Hutchinson and Perez by a bit, but I would understand if you disagree with that. And the idea of a top prospect is relative to a team. I just don't really believe in McNutt or Ha. I think that they would be better suited for Petco. McNutt seems like he will give up a ton of HR's in wrigley. I agree that I think the Cubs should get more, but I am trying really hard not to look at this with a Cub's bias.

[d_money]

Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

 

Hello? Its Dale's brother! Yeesh.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While we are on Blue Jays talk and (crazy?) Rizzo talk I have my answer to what I would want to deal Garza for. I know few will share my opinion, but I would prefer to go after AA or AAA bats rather than A pitchers. Those pitchers have an awful attrition rate.

 

Jays get: Garza and Russell (they could use a lefty for their pen)

Cubs get: Rizzo, Gose, and some kid Hoyer seems to overvalue

Pads get: Hutchison, McNutt, Ha, and Chad Jenkins

 

Jays get their guy and a useful part for some blocked guys. Cubs get 2 major league ready bats that could bring some excitement next year. The Pads move a B + prospect for a B+, B-, and 2 C+ guys (using Sickels site and just guessing for the Cubs players), so they get some value for a guy they just blocked.

 

I was reading a Fangraphs chat the other day and they mod said Gose, Hutch, and Perez was fair value for Garza. I exchanged Perez for Jenkins because I had heard the Pads were looking for pitching depth. You could replace him with a number of players like Cecil, Osuna, or Carreno.

 

So we trade Garza, a top prospect, another good prospect, and our best remaining lefty pen arm for a lesser package than we would have expected for Garza alone? Let's put this one in the no pile.

 

I think Rizzo > Hutchinson and Perez by a bit, but I would understand if you disagree with that. And the idea of a top prospect is relative to a team. I just don't really believe in McNutt or Ha. I think that they would be better suited for Petco. McNutt seems like he will give up a ton of HR's in wrigley. I agree that I think the Cubs should get more, but I am trying really hard not to look at this with a Cub's bias.

 

Garza alone is now the best starting pitching option available unless someone like Felix Hernandez is put on the block. The package you mentioned, while not 100% awful so long as te 3rd guy is a high ceiling pitcher but we should by no means be throwing in McNut and Ha. To be honest, I'd kick in Russell if I meant a better 3rd player but bias or not there's no reason to have to give up 2 of our best prospects as well. The Yamkees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are all rivals with a lot of money and a big need for another front end starter, although with Beckett, Lester, an Bucholtz te Red Sox might be just as interested in 2 mid rotation guys, but there's no reason for us to settle. Keep in mind we have no urgency to move Garza and we're trading him to build, not dump.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[TruffleShuffle]

garza, mcnutt, ha and russell for rizzo, gose and "some kid hoyer seems to overvalue" would be a fireable offense. ed lynch would laugh at that deal for God's sakes.

[davell]

Unless that 3rd player is Travis D'Arnaud or Brett Lawrie, count me waaaaay out. McNutt/Ha/Russell is probably enough to get Rizzo. Garza is certainly going to bring back more than Gose and a flyer. Not to mention, I feel pretty confident, if we deal with Toronto, we'll be adding pitching.

[davell]

I asked Crasnick if Garza being traded within a week is realistic and he said, yeah, if it happens, it should happen soon. Edwin Jackson is waiting for that to happen one way or the other.

[Backtobanks]

Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

 

Hello? Its Dale's brother! Yeesh.

 

It cracks me up that all of these "people in the know" predict when a trade is going to happen. Quite a few pages ago somebody who knew somebody claimed it was going down on Tuesday. Everybody knows the Cubs are shopping Garza and 3-4 teams are seriously interested, so saying a trade is going to happen soon isn't really going to far out on a limb.

[BeerHere]

Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

 

Hello? Its Dale's brother! Yeesh.

 

It cracks me up that all of these "people in the know" predict when a trade is going to happen. Quite a few pages ago somebody who knew somebody claimed it was going down on Tuesday. Everybody knows the Cubs are shopping Garza and 3-4 teams are seriously interested, so saying a trade is going to happen soon isn't really going to far out on a limb.

Agreed. The Hoyer/Epstein front office is also very tight lipped, much more so than the Hendry crew. The fact that anyone thinks they can predict if/when something happens is laughable. I'm a little surprised that we even know they are shopping Garza.

[pccubfan]

Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

 

Hello? Its Dale's brother! Yeesh.

 

It cracks me up that all of these "people in the know" predict when a trade is going to happen. Quite a few pages ago somebody who knew somebody claimed it was going down on Tuesday. Everybody knows the Cubs are shopping Garza and 3-4 teams are seriously interested, so saying a trade is going to happen soon isn't really going to far out on a limb.

Agreed. The Hoyer/Epstein front office is also very tight lipped, much more so than the Hendry crew. The fact that anyone thinks they can predict if/when something happens is laughable. I'm a little surprised that we even know they are shopping Garza.

 

I think it is too early to know how tight lipped they are. There really hasn't been enough time for any sources to be developed. Perhaps in the future there will be more information available via leaks.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Things still get out, perhaps just not as early. The Sean Marshall trade was broken a day or two before it actually happened.

[Conky]

Also, some dude on Twitter named Scott Swaim, under MLBInsideNews said all offers are in and tomorrow should be trade day for Garza. As for who this guy is? He's been on Twitter since January 2011 and has close to 700 followers. In his profile, it says he's broken a few signings this year, including Pujols. I've never heard of him, but who knows?

 

Hello? Its Dale's brother! Yeesh.

 

It cracks me up that all of these "people in the know" predict when a trade is going to happen. Quite a few pages ago somebody who knew somebody claimed it was going down on Tuesday. Everybody knows the Cubs are shopping Garza and 3-4 teams are seriously interested, so saying a trade is going to happen soon isn't really going to far out on a limb.

Agreed. The Hoyer/Epstein front office is also very tight lipped, much more so than the Hendry crew. The fact that anyone thinks they can predict if/when something happens is laughable. I'm a little surprised that we even know they are shopping Garza.

 

 

Small leaks can be used any number of ways. Can gauge fan or league reaction, or more importantly create buzz and apply pressure on your negotiating partners. Nothing new there. That's negotiating 101.

 

However, when Brett posted the other day that last offers were being taken, it sounds fairly accurate to me, given that multiple teams are included in negotiations. At some point you would think Theo or whoever is running the process says enough posturing, give us your best offer.

 

Of course no one knows exactly what day something gets done. No one ever said that. That said, the idea that negotiations are hitting the home stretch is pretty easy to believe using common sense alone. Looks like there are people here that default to complaining instead of adding to the discussion at hand, regardless of topic.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it is too early to know how tight lipped they are. There really hasn't been enough time for any sources to be developed. Perhaps in the future there will be more information available via leaks.

theo was referred to as tight lipped in Boston. I don't think it's too early to characterize them that way

[mookie]

Scott Swaim @MLBInsideNews 58s Reply Retweet Favorite · Open

Sources: #Yankees are OUT on Matt Garza. Seemingly down to #BlueJays and #Tigers

 

 

Count me in as also being in the torn camp between Detroit and Toronto. I really want Turner, but I think the Blue Jays deliver the better package. AA has been awfully silent, and after missing out on Darvish I would think he will make a splash.

[davell]

It's tough for me as well between those 2 teams. Turner's the best prospect on either team NOW. But, if you got 2 of Syndergaard/Nicolino/Sanchez/Hutchison plus a Drabek or McGuire or either a Gose or Marisnick, unless Detroit caved and sent Castellanos, I'd take the Jays, based on future upside. Because that group of 4 I just listed all have a possibility of being as well thought of as Turner, by this time next year, with maybe the exception of Hutchison.

[Brett]

I kind of worry ("worry" is probably the wrong word) that the huge amount of smoke late Wednesday and yesterday, including rumors that the Cubs had asked for best and final offers, were all a part of a planned leak, designed to pressure the various teams in discussions to amp things up quickly ... rather than being reflective of an actual amping up by those teams.

 

In other words, given how quiet the Cubs' side of things has been this offseason, I'm always a little suspicious when multiple sources report the same rumor at the same time (and that includes my report, which came from a Cubs team source). That's not say it's BAD that the Cubs might use the media this way (it's clever and can be useful). I'm just concerned, as a fan, that maybe the Garza talks aren't as advanced as they seemed just a day ago.

[jersey cubs fan]

No reason to be worried or concerned about it.

[CyHawk_Cub]

No reason to be worried or concerned about it.

 

More or less my view as well. Either Theo/Jed get a great haul in return & deal Garza, or they don't & keep him (maybe even extend him). Cubs don't HAVE to move Garza