College Basketball 2011-2012

[SouthSideRyan]

If you squint really hard...

[SouthSideRyan]

Conference Road games left of 3 loss or better teams:

 

1 loss team

IL: 7 (@ PSU and NE)

 

2 loss teams

UM: 7 (@ PSU and NE)

OSU: 6 (@ NE)

PU: 6 (None)

MSU: 5 (None)

 

3 loss teams

NW: 7 (@ PSU)

WIS: 6 (@ PSU)

IU: 6 (@ NE)

[SouthSideRyan]

Those 8 teams have only 3 wins against each other on the road: MSU @ WIS, WIS @ PU, IL @ NW

[bukie]

Yeah, all of a sudden, not going to Breslin seems like a sweet deal.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, all of a sudden, not going to Breslin seems like a sweet deal.

 

And shockingly enough, Carver-Hawkeye????

[UMFan83]

Oh thank God. Green misses a wide open look at a 5 foot jumper and then misses the tip off the front win as the clock expires. Michigan collects another NCAA quality win.

 

What were the others?

 

Memphis (RPI: 28) on a neutral court, Minnesota (38), Northwestern (25), Wisconsin (46), and now Michigan State (6). Also since they were talked about above, the great Iowa State (51).

 

RPI is stupid but the selection committee thinks its important.

 

 

Those are really not that "quality" of wins at all. Memphis sorta sucks, Minnesota does suck, NW is OK, WIsky is meh especially on the road. MSU is a good but somewhat expected win.

 

They are quality in terms of RPI which is quality to the NCAA committee which is all I was saying. Also that's kind of weird to say beating MSU is not a quality win because it's "expected".

[sneakypower]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

 

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

[SouthSideRyan]

I thought Palm was basically using straight RPI, but The Bracket Project has us as the 2nd 4 seed right now.

 

ETA: Palm's most recent update is not included in the project, but there are 2 other brackets with us as a 2 seed that are included.

 

ETA: Bracket Project also has 9 Big Ten teams in the tourney, 5 as top 4 seeds.

[bukie]

I thought Palm was basically using straight RPI, but The Bracket Project has us as the 2nd 4 seed right now.

 

ETA: Palm's most recent update is not included in the project, but there are 2 other brackets with us as a 2 seed that are included.

 

ETA: Bracket Project also has 9 Big Ten teams in the tourney, 5 as top 4 seeds.

Those really vary wildly, though, from a 2 seed to a 9 seed. As for Palm, as much as he is a smug d-bag about it (which appears to be a prereq for a sports journalist at CBSSports.com), he is right that the RPI is the only statistic measure that has any meaning for the actual committee.

[SouthSideRyan]

It has come together a bit. Those last 2 (8s and 9s on the bracket project) have been changed to a 6 and 5 seed respectively. That leaves just 3 of the 29 brackets with us worse than a 6 seed.

[pitchcs]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

 

When you're good and playing them at home.

 

Michigan still hasn't proven much to me -- wow, they haven't even won a road game yet.

Edited January 18, 2012 by pitchcs

[bukie]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

 

When you're good and playing them at home.

 

Michigan still hasn't proven much to me.

If beating a top 10 team doesn't prove much, you've set the bar a little high.

[pitchcs]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

 

When you're good and playing them at home.

 

Michigan still hasn't proven much to me.

If beating a top 10 team doesn't prove much, you've set the bar a little high.

 

 

Rankings mean absolutely NOTHING.....why is that so hard for people, especially college bball fans, to understand? Beating a good team at home is a decent win, nothing more.

[bukie]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

 

When you're good and playing them at home.

 

Michigan still hasn't proven much to me.

If beating a top 10 team doesn't prove much, you've set the bar a little high.

 

 

Rankings mean absolutely NOTHING.....why is that so hard for people, especially college bball fans, to understand? Beating a good team at home is a decent win, nothing more.

Polls mean nothing. Ratings mean something, and beating a great team at home is a great win. You're being patently absurd here if beating a top 10 rated team at home is merely decent, because then nobody has a good win.

 

EDIT: Wait, I was wrong, Indiana is the only consensus top 10 team that has a non-road loss, so congrats Minnesota! You have the only good win in college basketball this year!

[bukie]

Toccoa Falls, it may be time to just take Western Carolina off the schedule.

[Exile on Waveland]

lol when is it ever expected for us to beat MSU in basketball

maybe if the 82 Tar Heels time travel to today and we can beat them, that might qualify as a quality win

 

When you're good and playing them at home.

 

Michigan still hasn't proven much to me.

If beating a top 10 team doesn't prove much, you've set the bar a little high.

 

The bar is also constantly shifting. First, it's that you haven't beaten a good team. Then you beat Michigan State, who is pretty clearly a top-10 caliber team (Pomeroy No. 6) and the bar shifts to you haven't beaten a good team on the road. However, this is such a high bar that basically no team can be a good team. Let's take a look at what most people probably still consider the best four teams in the country:

 

Syracuse -- 4-0 on the road (wins against Nos. 49, 77, 119, 158)

Kentucky -- 2-1 on the road (wins against Nos. 102, 198)

Ohio State -- 2-3 on the road (wins against Nos. 98, 130)

North Carolina -- 1-3 on the road (win against No. 141)

 

That's one decent road win among the four (Syracuse's win at NC State). Teams can be very, very good and still not have beat anyone on the road. Duke won the National Championship two years ago and was No. 1 in Pomeroy, yet went 5-5 on the road with only one of those wins coming against a top-45 opponent (No. 20 Clemson -- a team that lost eight of its last 14 and, frankly, I have a hard time buying as a top-20 caliber team). Beating good teams on the road is very, very difficult in college basketball and making that a requirement to be considered a good team is silly.

[bcl412]

Not counting a win, or at least weakening its value significantly because it took place at home is dumb. They are still playing a basketball game on a basketball court with basketball court. Beating a good team is tough regardless of location and while home court advantage seems to mean a lot in college basketball I still think it's overstated.

[pitchcs]

ANY road win is a good win, period.

 

Michigan has 0 -- losses at Virginia, Indiana and Iowa.

 

Illinois has 2 -- at Maryland and NW

[SouthSideRyan]

Well, that's silly. Maryland sucks.

[bukie]

Plus, road wins aren't predictive at all in terms of quality of the team. Every NCAA tournament game is on a neutral site, not in an opponent's home gym.

 

Plus, they beat Memphis, UCLA and Oakland on neutral floors.

[bcl412]

Plus, road wins aren't predictive at all in terms of quality of the team. Every NCAA tournament game is on a neutral site, not in an opponent's home gym.

 

Plus, they beat Memphis, UCLA and Oakland on neutral floors.

 

If this statement is backed up with anything (I would assume it is because you usually have good support for your statements) that would pretty much diffuse the importance of road wins.

 

I would assume that good teams win on the road more often because they are good rather then road wins make a good team though that's just a guess.

[bukie]

Plus, road wins aren't predictive at all in terms of quality of the team. Every NCAA tournament game is on a neutral site, not in an opponent's home gym.

 

Plus, they beat Memphis, UCLA and Oakland on neutral floors.

 

If this statement is backed up with anything (I would assume it is because you usually have good support for your statements) that would pretty much diffuse the importance of road wins.

 

I would assume that good teams win on the road more often because they are good rather then road wins make a good team though that's just a guess.

I remembered something about it last week from KP, but it was from his twitter referencing this story.

 

Basically, in terms of predicting game outcomes, it's far more important who you play than where you play them. The general point difference against an opponent between a home game and a road game is a little under 7 points (so 3.5 between home and neutral), which is, for example, less than the expected point difference between Ohio State (1) and UNLV (15) as an opponent.

[Exile on Waveland]

Plus, road wins aren't predictive at all in terms of quality of the team. Every NCAA tournament game is on a neutral site, not in an opponent's home gym.

 

This is why I think "bad losses" is a rather overrated factor. Who cares? At least for the teams not at the top of the bracket, every NCAA tournament game is against a good team (though, obviously, the tournament has been partially watered-down, but still). Showing an ability to beat good teams should be the most important factor.

[abuck1220]

Well, that's silly. Maryland sucks.

 

no no no. beating a top 10 team at home is [expletive] stupid piece of garbage. beating maryland on the road? now we're talking.

[SouthSideRyan]

Plus, road wins aren't predictive at all in terms of quality of the team. Every NCAA tournament game is on a neutral site, not in an opponent's home gym.

 

This is why I think "bad losses" is a rather overrated factor. Who cares? At least for the teams not at the top of the bracket, every NCAA tournament game is against a good team (though, obviously, the tournament has been partially watered-down, but still). Showing an ability to beat good teams should be the most important factor.

 

This is far less transparent than when you said wearing red uniforms was the most important factor last season.