Re: 2010-2011 NBA Thread

[bukie]

Except for wins. Which is the most important one.

 

And I disagree about the last point. Sure its less of a team sport than the NFL or soccer. But its more than a lot of people make it out to be who are predicting the Heat to run away with it. Calculate the big 3's PER at the end of this year and compare to last season. I'd bet any amount of money that it will be far less. And there aren't many people who would argue with that.

 

Wins after 9 games is hardly the most important one. And wins is only important to the extent that you have to beat out 7 teams in your conference in that column to make the playoffs, and a little bit regarding how many home games you'd like, since it's about a 4-point swing in general.

 

Past that, it's about predicting how well a team will do going forward, and treating a 20 point win over Orlando the same as a 2 point overtime loss to Utah as exactly the same is not very accurately predictive.

 

And who's talking PER? PER is a very offensive-biased individual statistic, and I'm going strictly on team predictions, here. Individual stats aren't being factored in on any level, here, aside from being compiled to perform team point differentials.

[SpongeWorthy]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

If the "common sense" approach is seeing a 5-4 record and chuckling to myself while popping a bottle of champagne on behalf of the 1996 Bulls, I'll take the statistical model, thanks.

 

Huh?

 

So you think Miami is going 67-6 the rest of the way?

[DivineBovine]

Except for wins. Which is the most important one.

 

And I disagree about the last point. Sure its less of a team sport than the NFL or soccer. But its more than a lot of people make it out to be who are predicting the Heat to run away with it. Calculate the big 3's PER at the end of this year and compare to last season. I'd bet any amount of money that it will be far less. And there aren't many people who would argue with that.

 

Wins after 9 games is hardly the most important one. And wins is only important to the extent that you have to beat out 7 teams in your conference in that column to make the playoffs, and a little bit regarding how many home games you'd like, since it's about a 4-point swing in general.

 

Past that, it's about predicting how well a team will do going forward, and treating a 20 point win over Orlando the same as a 2 point overtime loss to Utah as exactly the same is not very accurately predictive.

 

And who's talking PER? PER is a very offensive-biased individual statistic, and I'm going strictly on team predictions, here. Individual stats aren't being factored in on any level, here, aside from being compiled to perform team point differentials.

 

 

Fair enough. But wins after 9 games is still better than using statistical predictors after 9 games.

[bukie]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

If the "common sense" approach is seeing a 5-4 record and chuckling to myself while popping a bottle of champagne on behalf of the 1996 Bulls, I'll take the statistical model, thanks.

 

Huh?

 

So you think Miami is going 67-6 the rest of the way?

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

[bukie]

Except for wins. Which is the most important one.

 

And I disagree about the last point. Sure its less of a team sport than the NFL or soccer. But its more than a lot of people make it out to be who are predicting the Heat to run away with it. Calculate the big 3's PER at the end of this year and compare to last season. I'd bet any amount of money that it will be far less. And there aren't many people who would argue with that.

 

Wins after 9 games is hardly the most important one. And wins is only important to the extent that you have to beat out 7 teams in your conference in that column to make the playoffs, and a little bit regarding how many home games you'd like, since it's about a 4-point swing in general.

 

Past that, it's about predicting how well a team will do going forward, and treating a 20 point win over Orlando the same as a 2 point overtime loss to Utah as exactly the same is not very accurately predictive.

 

And who's talking PER? PER is a very offensive-biased individual statistic, and I'm going strictly on team predictions, here. Individual stats aren't being factored in on any level, here, aside from being compiled to perform team point differentials.

 

 

Fair enough. But wins after 9 games is still better than using statistical predictors after 9 games.

Err, no it isn't. Or are the Heat going to win 45 games this year?

[SpongeWorthy]

I have no clue what you're trying to say because you're being intentionally obtuse about it.

 

If Jeff Sagarin's life depended on predicting the outcome between a Lakers/Heat series, I very highly doubt he would pick Miami, at least at this point in time. I doubt he'd pick New Orleans over the Lakers or Celtics either despite what his predictor says.

[jersey cubs fan]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

If the "common sense" approach is seeing a 5-4 record and chuckling to myself while popping a bottle of champagne on behalf of the 1996 Bulls, I'll take the statistical model, thanks.

 

Huh?

 

So you think Miami is going 67-6 the rest of the way?

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

 

What are you saying? Because it seems pretty damn clear you are saying that despite the current record the Heat will still win however many they need to beat that record.

[17 Seconds]

It brings a tear to my eye every time I think about the 1906 Cubs record-setting performance.

 

yes because something that happened before we were born is definitely comparable to something that happened 15 years ago and was witnessed by all of us.

 

good joke

[17 Seconds]

If Bulls fans actually really bother with that, I would be more worried about the Lakers

 

I can't imagine why a Bulls fan would care about that, but Bulls fans are [expletive] nutjobs that can't get over MICHAEL 12 years later so I guess it makes sense.

 

yea why care that our team holds the record for the most wins ever in a season? that's like, barely even an accomplishment.

 

but holding onto a championship 12 years later is reasonable, right?

[SpongeWorthy]

I'm guessing SSR had an adult beverage or 8 when he posted that.

[bukie]

I have no clue what you're trying to say because you're being intentionally obtuse about it.

 

If Jeff Sagarin's life depended on predicting the outcome between a Lakers/Heat series, I very highly doubt he would pick Miami, at least at this point in time. I doubt he'd pick New Orleans over the Lakers or Celtics either despite what his predictor says.

Either obtuse means the opposite of what you think it means, or you don't get it.

 

I'm just saying there are several statistic measures that indicate Miami, even now, isn't doing nearly as poorly as ignorant media pundits and schadenfreude-filled fans think they are.

 

And you don't have to be stupid to believe it, either.

 

And it's not just Sagarin, or just adding up individual PER's, either. Look at Hollinger's team ratings (which I promise you aren't doctored to favor the Heat), look at BP's SCHOENE projections (which, admittedly, costs money), or offensive and defensive efficiency, or adjusted scoring margin, or even basic scoring margin!

 

At the end of the day, simply looking at W-L record has one purpose: whether or not you get into the playoffs. Beyond that, it tells very little about the quality of a team, the likelihood of a team winning, or even eliminate the possibility that the lesser team can win 4 of 7.

 

And I'm pretty sure if you asked Sagarin (or even Hollinger), he'd give the Heat the best odds of winning it all, even today. However, even if those odds against the Lakers and Celtics were 55%, that still leaves a 45% chance they don't. Nobody's guaranteeing anything, here, just pointing out that the Heat are in fact playing better than their W-L record indicates.

[bukie]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

If the "common sense" approach is seeing a 5-4 record and chuckling to myself while popping a bottle of champagne on behalf of the 1996 Bulls, I'll take the statistical model, thanks.

 

Huh?

 

So you think Miami is going 67-6 the rest of the way?

Yes, that's exactly what I said.

 

What are you saying? Because it seems pretty damn clear you are saying that despite the current record the Heat will still win however many they need to beat that record.

Then you're either not understanding or you're intentionally trying to create an argument that isn't there. I haven't said one thing about that record in any post, aside from the champagne-popping schadenfreude-loving Bulls fanbase. The record, ultimately, means little. They're not statistically likely to beat it. However, they are still a very good team, and have played better than it looks at first glance.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Bulls fans actually really bother with that, I would be more worried about the Lakers

 

I can't imagine why a Bulls fan would care about that, but Bulls fans are [expletive] nutjobs that can't get over MICHAEL 12 years later so I guess it makes sense.

 

yea why care that our team holds the record for the most wins ever in a season? that's like, barely even an accomplishment.

 

but holding onto a championship 12 years later is reasonable, right?

 

Doesn't everyone think the '72 Dolphins are sad and pathetic?

[SpongeWorthy]

I have no clue what you're trying to say because you're being intentionally obtuse about it.

 

If Jeff Sagarin's life depended on predicting the outcome between a Lakers/Heat series, I very highly doubt he would pick Miami, at least at this point in time. I doubt he'd pick New Orleans over the Lakers or Celtics either despite what his predictor says.

Either obtuse means the opposite of what you think it means, or you don't get it.

 

I'm just saying there are several statistic measures that indicate Miami, even now, isn't doing nearly as poorly as ignorant media pundits and schadenfreude-filled fans think they are.

 

And you don't have to be stupid to believe it, either.

 

And it's not just Sagarin, or just adding up individual PER's, either. Look at Hollinger's team ratings (which I promise you aren't doctored to favor the Heat), look at BP's SCHOENE projections (which, admittedly, costs money), or offensive and defensive efficiency, or adjusted scoring margin, or even basic scoring margin!

 

At the end of the day, simply looking at W-L record has one purpose: whether or not you get into the playoffs. Beyond that, it tells very little about the quality of a team, the likelihood of a team winning, or even eliminate the possibility that the lesser team can win 4 of 7.

 

And I'm pretty sure if you asked Sagarin (or even Hollinger), he'd give the Heat the best odds of winning it all, even today. However, even if those odds against the Lakers and Celtics were 55%, that still leaves a 45% chance they don't. Nobody's guaranteeing anything, here, just pointing out that the Heat are in fact playing better than their W-L record indicates.

 

But you probably admit they wouldn't say the Hornets have the 2nd best chance of winning the title right? I mean maybe that's what their black box spits out, and that's why their models have value--because they don't fudge the numbers to their own eyeballs, but they don't REALLY believe that.

 

The predictor is only taking this season's games into account. It doesn't take the last few years where teams like the Lakers and Celtics have clearly been superior to a team like New Orleans and where nebulous ideas about playoff experience, coaching, match ups come into play. I'm guessing the last ~200 games the Lakers and Celtics have played are a better predictor than just the first 7 New Orleans has played, especially when their core guys are still intact.

[Flames24Rulz]

If Bulls fans actually really bother with that, I would be more worried about the Lakers

 

I can't imagine why a Bulls fan would care about that, but Bulls fans are [expletive] nutjobs that can't get over MICHAEL 12 years later so I guess it makes sense.

 

yea why care that our team holds the record for the most wins ever in a season? that's like, barely even an accomplishment.

 

but holding onto a championship 12 years later is reasonable, right?

 

Doesn't everyone think the '72 Dolphins are sad and pathetic?

 

Good comparison. It's the same city where the '85 Bears are still celebrated on a daily basis and where the Sox fans are still reminiscing about their World Series run five years ago. Still, I admit I'm basically a meathead when it comes to the 95-96 Bulls. I don't want that record to ever be broken.

 

There's only one franchise where I'd hold onto a championship 12 years after it happened.

[SpongeWorthy]

If Bulls fans actually really bother with that, I would be more worried about the Lakers

 

I can't imagine why a Bulls fan would care about that, but Bulls fans are [expletive] nutjobs that can't get over MICHAEL 12 years later so I guess it makes sense.

 

yea why care that our team holds the record for the most wins ever in a season? that's like, barely even an accomplishment.

 

but holding onto a championship 12 years later is reasonable, right?

 

Doesn't everyone think the '72 Dolphins are sad and pathetic?

 

Yeah, but they whore themselves out to the media any time anyone threatens the mark. Mercury Morris would not shut up when the Patriots were on their undefeated streak.

[DivineBovine]

Except for wins. Which is the most important one.

 

And I disagree about the last point. Sure its less of a team sport than the NFL or soccer. But its more than a lot of people make it out to be who are predicting the Heat to run away with it. Calculate the big 3's PER at the end of this year and compare to last season. I'd bet any amount of money that it will be far less. And there aren't many people who would argue with that.

 

Wins after 9 games is hardly the most important one. And wins is only important to the extent that you have to beat out 7 teams in your conference in that column to make the playoffs, and a little bit regarding how many home games you'd like, since it's about a 4-point swing in general.

 

Past that, it's about predicting how well a team will do going forward, and treating a 20 point win over Orlando the same as a 2 point overtime loss to Utah as exactly the same is not very accurately predictive.

 

And who's talking PER? PER is a very offensive-biased individual statistic, and I'm going strictly on team predictions, here. Individual stats aren't being factored in on any level, here, aside from being compiled to perform team point differentials.

 

 

Fair enough. But wins after 9 games is still better than using statistical predictors after 9 games.

Err, no it isn't. Or are the Heat going to win 45 games this year?

 

 

Whatever. I don't think they're winning 45 games. So what does that prove? I don't think they are going to finish 1st either. If the predictor is using 9 games as an indicator, it's every bit as bad. I'd bet you that everyone who has posted could predict NBA standings at the end of the year right now and most of us would be at least as good as that statistical predictor.

 

Here is the predictor:

1. Miami Heat

2. New Orleans Hornets

3. Los Angeles Lakers

4. Boston Celtics

5. Denver Nuggets

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Orlando Magic

8. Portland Trail Blazers

9. San Antonio Spurs

10. Milwaukee Bucks

11. Utah Jazz

12. Chicago Bulls

 

 

Here are is the same thing by current W/L record:

1. New Orleans

2. Lakers

3. San Antonio

4. Boston

5. Orlando

6. Dallas

7. Atlanta

8. Portland

9. Golden State

10. Utah

11. Chicago

12. Miami

 

 

I'd bet most people could do better than both the above predictions just on the basis of common sense.

 

But as a measure of how the teams have played SO FAR? W/L is a better measure than the predictor. I'll stand by that one. There's no way you can tell me that the Heat have played the best basketball in the NBA over 9 games. Sorry.

[bukie]

Last word on the subject, for now. Final standings predictions, based on various ratings/statistics (just for Miami here, because I don't have all day, sorry):

 

W/L (5-4): 46-36

Pythagorean (7.2-1.8): 63-19

Sagarin predictor: 64-18 (converted using Pomeroy's predictions method based on proposed scores of remaining games vs. probability of victory)

Hollinger ratings: 66-16 (using same method...yesterday it would have been 69-13)

 

Now, I'm not saying they'll finish the year 61-12. But, I do have a feeling they'll end the year much closer to their predictive statistics methods than what their current W/L record would indicate.

 

And I'm not even saying that I want them to win it all and be the best team. I was just surprised that even with what's happened thus far, they're still coming out as the best team statistically overall.

[bukie]

Ok, one last thing. If the Sagarin predictor was used to project the NBA playoff seeds:

 

West

1. New Orleans

2. LA Lakers

3. Denver

4. Dallas

5. Portland

6. San Antonio

7. Utah

8. Phoenix

 

- Most would probably agree that LA should win the west easily and that New Orleans won't be able to keep up their level of play. Plus, Oklahoma City has played terrible thus far, and would be expected to pick it up. Other than that, though, it's as good an indicator as any. New Orleans has been that good, and Oklahoma City has been that bad.

 

East

1. Miami

2. Boston

3. Orlando

4. Milwaukee

5. Chicago

6. Atlanta

7. Indiana

8. Philadelphia

 

- The scariest thing to me about the Heat is that they have played this well already, and there's no indication they can't continue to play as well as they have so far, and that they could even pick it up somewhat. Chicago is playing without Boozer yet and could be expected to climb a bit yet, but beyond that it's pretty accurate.

[UMFan83]

If Bulls fans actually really bother with that, I would be more worried about the Lakers

 

I can't imagine why a Bulls fan would care about that, but Bulls fans are [expletive] nutjobs that can't get over MICHAEL 12 years later so I guess it makes sense.

 

yea why care that our team holds the record for the most wins ever in a season? that's like, barely even an accomplishment.

 

but holding onto a championship 12 years later is reasonable, right?

 

Doesn't everyone think the '72 Dolphins are sad and pathetic?

 

Not Dolphins fans. And that's the point. Why do you watch sports again? So that you can get excited about your team winning and championship and once it does, drop all emotional attachment towards that team and never speak of them again?

 

I mean the whole point of following a specific sports team, other than the instantaneous feeling you get when they win a big game, or a championship or whatever, is to compile happy memories of when your team was at the top of the mountain at the end of the season. Sure the Hawks may suck right now, but at least I can pop in my Stanley Cup DVDs and remember how great it was to see them win it and to partially relive those feelings again. I love going to hockey-reference.com to look something up and accidently stumbling on last year's Hawks team page and seeing "2009-2010 Stanley Cup Champions" attached to the page. Makes me feel good.

 

So yes, of course I am hung up on Michael Jordan 12 years later. He was arguably the greatest [expletive] basketball player to ever play. And he played in my city. All the highlights that he had in his career, all the games he won, all the commericals he did, everything was appreciated the most by me and the fans of the Chicago Bulls because he did those things wearing the jersey of the team I root for. Hell he made me a fan of the team I follow obsessively to this day. So of course I cherish that whenever someone brings him up, he is bringing up a player from my favorite team.

 

So when a basketball team starts the season 50-5 or something, I am definitely rooting for them to lose 6 more games because I want my favorite team to have the most wins in a season of all time, not the 69 Lakers or 86 Celtics or the 11 Heat. It wouldnt necessarily diminish the memories of the 96 Bulls that I have, but it's an extra cherry on top to all those memories.

[UMFan83]

Ok, one last thing. If the Sagarin predictor was used to project the NBA playoff seeds:

 

West

1. New Orleans

2. LA Lakers

3. Denver

4. Dallas

5. Portland

6. San Antonio

7. Utah

8. Phoenix

 

- Most would probably agree that LA should win the west easily and that New Orleans won't be able to keep up their level of play. Plus, Oklahoma City has played terrible thus far, and would be expected to pick it up. Other than that, though, it's as good an indicator as any. New Orleans has been that good, and Oklahoma City has been that bad.

 

East

1. Miami

2. Boston

3. Orlando

4. Milwaukee

5. Chicago

6. Atlanta

7. Indiana

8. Philadelphia

 

- The scariest thing to me about the Heat is that they have played this well already, and there's no indication they can't continue to play as well as they have so far, and that they could even pick it up somewhat. Chicago is playing without Boozer yet and could be expected to climb a bit yet, but beyond that it's pretty accurate.

 

That's strange that Milwaukee, after their mediocre start is still favored to finish better than the Bulls. Obviously Boozer coming back should change that a bit, but the Bulls have the better record, a better point differential, and I think have played a harder schedule.

 

BTW, I do tend to side a little bit more with what you are saying. And it is extremely interesting to see Miami still far and away the best team in these predictor models. Is this only based on this years performance, or do past numbers have an affect on it? It certainly makes sense because like you said a 20 point win and a 2 point loss do not cancel each other out. Think about it this way, if the Heat are 20 points better than the teams like Philly and NJ than they crushed, and so far have been 2-5 points worse than the Boston, Utah, NO's of the NBA, and everyone likely admits that the Heat will improve to some degree over time, how much longer until those 2 point losses become 5 point wins?

[SpongeWorthy]

He was arguably the greatest [expletive] basketball player to ever play.

 

Arguably? How dare you sir.

[Formerly Snayke]

Re: Bosh -- I'd take Garnett and Josh Smith over him, so I think he's probably the third best PF in the division.

[Guest]

I thought it was hilarious that LeBron was complaining about the 44 minutes he played last night and said it was too much. He also said that Wade playing 40 minutes was too much also.

[imb]

Excited for the Portland game tonight. With Roy hobbled, no excuse to not win, except that aldridge always dominates us and inexplicably so does 15-year fatass andre miller. No Jeff Green, which means Ibaka guards Aldridge which means we have a fighting chance of holding him under 25 points.