Re: 2010-2011 NBA Thread

[SouthSideRyan]

It brings a tear to my eye every time I think about the 1906 Cubs record-setting performance.

[SouthSideRyan]

Would you take Chris Bosh at center over either of the 2 O'Neals?

 

Oh come on, you wouldn't take Bosh over Jermaine O' Neal? Gimme a break. I mean, Shaq should be a slam dunk choice too, but I can at least buy an argument saying his bulk creates a bigger problem for the 25 minutes he can actually be on the floor.

[ELCABALLO45]

Would you take Chris Bosh at center over either of the 2 O'Neals?

 

Oh come on, you wouldn't take Bosh over Jermaine O' Neal? Gimme a break. I mean, Shaq should be a slam dunk choice too, but I can at least buy an argument saying his bulk creates a bigger problem for the 25 minutes he can actually be on the floor.

 

No, I was not stating I would rather have Jermaine over Bosh. It was just a question. I would rather have Bosh over Jermaine. But it won't matter when Perkins comes back. Because you know, he actually plays defense.

[Flames24Rulz]

I feel like the Bulls really dodged a bullet when Bosh snubbed them

 

I remember laughing at everyone who said they wouldn't part with Noah in a S&T for Bosh. Whoops.

[Banedon]

72-10 will never be broken.

 

That Bulls team didn't lose their 4th game until February. Man that team was fun.

[DivineBovine]

Paul Pierce Tweet:

 

It's been a pleasure to bring my talents to South Beach

:lol:

 

 

 

Bosh just doesn't fit into the team. He can put up big numbers if force fed the ball on a bad team, but can't seem to do it for the Heat. The Heat experiment is proving the importance of the role player. Scoring isn't everything in the league. You don't necessarily need 3 guys that can score 1 on 1.

[DivineBovine]

I feel like the Bulls really dodged a bullet when Bosh snubbed them

 

I remember laughing at everyone who said they wouldn't part with Noah in a S&T for Bosh. Whoops.

 

 

The Heat might do that deal right now, straight up. :lol:

[UMFan83]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

[Flames24Rulz]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Am5fWTPdbqauQHexvM4U6045nYcB?slug=aw-celticsheat111210

 

Best part:

When it was over, Big Baby Davis marched out of the showers and declared: “No one can spoil this night. Good for us to come in and spank that ass.”

[SpongeWorthy]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

 

Joel Anthony will never be Perkins and Arroyo ain't Rondo. That I'm certain of.

 

But I agree with what you're saying. They'll be fine and they'll add better secondary pieces moving forward. The MLE and draft will be big for them.

[Flames24Rulz]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

 

Joel Anthony will never be Perkins and Arroyo ain't Rondo. That I'm certain of.

 

But I agree with what you're saying. They'll be fine and they'll add better secondary pieces moving forward. The MLE and draft will be big for them.

 

Draft? Didn't they trade all their picks for the forseeable future?

[SpongeWorthy]

Naw, they've got first round picks for at least the next two years.

[Flames24Rulz]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

 

Hate him all you want, but KG has always been about as unselfish a superstar as possible. Same with Ray Allen. The only guy that was questioned was Pierce heading into that marriage and it's clear those two guys benefitted him just as much as he helped them.

 

I don't see that with Miami. Like you said, Bosh has looked out of place. More importantly, Bosh looks like he doesn't care. He got what he want. He landed his big payday in South Beach and gets to hang out with his buds, while they're the ones that have to deal with the pressure. LeBron ran away from a situation in Cleveland because he couldn't do it himself. Wade's the only one out of the three that truly gives a damn about that team. Like it or not, the label is going to get stronger and stronger that LeBron is a loser unless he proves everybody wrong by winning something.

 

You're absolutely right that the Celtics team was built better than the Heat. They had an inside presence to work with, as well as great wing players, and a point guard that wasn't going to be detrimental to their success. There are quite a few weak spots on this Heat squad that won't be solved this season.

[bukie]

Updated NBA Predictor ratings, after last night:

 

1. Miami Heat

2. New Orleans Hornets

3. Los Angeles Lakers

4. Boston Celtics

5. Denver Nuggets

6. Dallas Mavericks

7. Orlando Magic

8. Portland Trail Blazers

9. San Antonio Spurs

10. Milwaukee Bucks

11. Utah Jazz

12. Chicago Bulls

13. Phoenix Suns

14. Atlanta Hawks

15. Indiana Pacers

16. Houston Rockets

17. Memphis Grizzlies

18. Philadelphia 76ers

19. Golden State Warriors

20. New York Knicks

21. Oklahoma City Thunder

22. Charlotte Bobcats

23. Toronto Raptors

24. Cleveland Cavaliers

25. Los Angeles Clippers

26. Detroit Pistons

27. New Jersey Nets

28. Washington Wizards

29. Sacramento Kings

30. Minnesota Timberwolves

 

So, yes, Miami still on top. East/West getting more balanced, now, as the East has 7 of the top 15.

[DivineBovine]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

 

 

Come on. People are just having fun. Everyone loves to hate the Heat, and its not like they didn't bring it upon themselves. The decision, the smoke machine, the talk of 7 or 8 championships, the talk of keeping a list and shutting people up. It's fun watching this. I admit I'm loving it.

 

But on a more serious note. I agree that this is an overreaction from 9 games. But how can Miami not be concerned? This is basketball, not baseball. You can't necessarily combine players and know what to expect. I'm sure they will get better. Its a question of how much better. But all the experts who talk about the Heat, either good or bad about them, really have no idea. Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

 

But the pressure is really high. Forget about building a team over 6 years with mid-level exceptions. If this team is going down, meaning not at least winning conference championships this year and a ring in the next 2, they are getting dismantled. If the team is underachieving, LeBron is going to be running his mouth even more and blaming others, fingers are going to be pointed, staff is getting fired, and no free agent or coach in their right mind is going to want to come for less money and be part of it. Not saying its going to happen, but the Heat don't have years to turn this around. They have maybe one. Which I agree is a lot of time. But still.

[bukie]

Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

How clear is it if the Heat are still statistically the superior team in the NBA? Sure, it's fun to bask in the schadenfreude, but the reality is that if this is the "struggling Heat", they're going to lap the league when things click.

[UMFan83]

I just don't understand why people can draw such definite conclusions about the Heat after 9 games. Look, I've watched the games too. Bosh has looked horribly out of place. Arroyo is probably a 11th man on the bulls and Anthony is in street clothes. This has made it a lot easier to defend LeBron and Wade. Yes James gets a smile on his face when Wade sits down for a breather because he can take over the game. Yes they aren't all fitting like Boston did. But not every team is the same. As much as I want to tear down this team and laugh at their failures, I can't help but think that in April they will be a much more fluid team. Not a lot of players and coaches have had a lot of experience dealing with 3 players like Wade/Bosh/LBJ on the same team. It's gonna take a lot of trial and error to figure out what works. Once they find the right way to use Bosh he will be better. Will he average 24 points and 10 boards a game? Probably not. But that's not what this was about anyways.

 

The team whose stock rises incredibly in many people's books is Boston. Everyone immediately loathed Boston for trading for two stars and going from poor to awesome in one summer. Everyone said the same thing about Boston, that they were too thin, and they couldnt all exist together. Boston proved everyone wrong. They worked all summer, they all agreed to sacrifice for the good of making this team work, they learned how to work off each other's strengths. By opening night they looked like a fine oiled machine. This Miami team, I honestly don't remember hearing that the big 3 spent any time together before training camp (did they?). They all did a bunch of publicity in between vacations, etc. Then in the preseason, they played together for 4 total minutes. So right now they are working out the kinks in November, doing the same stuff the Boston Three Party was probably doing in August. That said, Boston clearly had a better team, and had players that were willing to work their asses off every night (not saying miami's 3 doesnt necessarily have that drive), and the biggest thing is, they simply work well together. Allen is a superior shooter who can spot up some nights and let Pierce, who is a much better slasher, drive and kick. Garnett basically sacrificed his offensive numbers to become the intimidating inside presence defensively, and 3rd option on offense. I'm kinda rambling here but Boston also had a young emerging point guard who could get the ball to these guys, and a better and deeper bench that were all good at their individual roles.

 

Basically, I think Boston was built much better than this Miami team. However, Miami still has incredible talent that will get better and better as the year goes on. And if they don't get it together this year, they will MLE the crap out of the NBA until they get it right. They have 6 years to do so.

 

 

Come on. People are just having fun. Everyone loves to hate the Heat, and its not like they didn't bring it upon themselves. The decision, the smoke machine, the talk of 7 or 8 championships, the talk of keeping a list and shutting people up. It's fun watching this. I admit I'm loving it.

 

But on a more serious note. I agree that this is an overreaction from 9 games. But how can Miami not be concerned? This is basketball, not baseball. You can't necessarily combine players and know what to expect. I'm sure they will get better. Its a question of how much better. But all the experts who talk about the Heat, either good or bad about them, really have no idea. Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

 

But the pressure is really high. Forget about building a team over 6 years with mid-level exceptions. If this team is going down, meaning not at least winning conference championships this year and a ring in the next 2, they are getting dismantled. If the team is underachieving, LeBron is going to be running his mouth even more and blaming others, fingers are going to be pointed, staff is getting fired, and no free agent or coach in their right mind is going to want to come for less money and be part of it. Not saying its going to happen, but the Heat don't have years to turn this around. They have maybe one. Which I agree is a lot of time. But still.

 

You make some valid points. You are right about this team is a bunch of highly talented players that are playing at a level less than the sum of its parts. I think thats the first thing everyone thought when they heard Wade and LeBron were gonna play together. It's actually really interesting to see because its really a discussion about which is more important, superstars or role players. The Bulls would win between 40-50 games every year on the strength of 9 role players of various ability. Everyone said they desperately needed a superstar player to get to the next level. And they did. Eventually even they realized that no matter how hard they played, the best they could do is 50 wins and the 2nd round. Whats the point of doing that for the next 4 years. Something had to change.

 

Now we're looking at the opposite side of the spectrum. Miami is filled with not just starts but 2.5 legitimate superstars. LeBron is the best overall player of his generation. Wade is one of the top 3 SG of his generation. Bosh is one of the 5 best PFs in the NBA today. That's amazing that they've all been assembled on the same time. But with that much top end talent, there are going to be significant issues. Especially when 2 of them are alpha dogs. There are no established roles. Neither of them really seem to be sacrificing parts of their games to make a well rounded team. And a big issue is that they have no one outside of those 3. Jerry Stackhouse would be a great addition if he was the 2005 Dallas Stackhouse. But its 5 years later and hes a marginal nba player now. Same with Juwan Howard. Same with Ilgauskus, same with Magloire. Then you have the players that would be good back of your bench players like Arroyo, House, Chalmers, Jones, Anthony. Haslem is a nice 7th or 8th man on a team. So in this situation Miami desperately needs role players and until they get them, and until they learn to evolve their games for the good of the team, they are going to struggle.

[DivineBovine]

Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

How clear is it if the Heat are still statistically the superior team in the NBA? Sure, it's fun to bask in the schadenfreude, but the reality is that if this is the "struggling Heat", they're going to lap the league when things click.

 

 

Based on what? Are you talking about Hollinger's power rankings on espn? It's even worse than the BCS. Look how well he predicts NBA standings. He's no better than anyone else, and goes out on a limb about as often as Dick Vitale does when he picks NCAA hoops.

 

The Bulls just crushed a Golden State team which just beat the Knicks on the road. Yet the Knicks beat the Bulls at home. so how does this factor into his ratings?

 

I just don't believe you can easily distill basketball to stats. More than a lot of media guys, Hollinger seems to have an increased interest in the Heat, because he and his PER predicted that the Heat should run away with a title. Him and his PER will end up looking bad if the Heat are a flop. He predicted 68 wins.

 

I also happen to believe the PER is stupid. A decent player on a bad team can put up big numbers (Chris Bosh). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out he wasn't going to do it with the Heat. And no amount of math could replace common sense there. I wonder what the combined PER was of all the US Olympic teams that couldn't win the gold.

[bukie]

Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

How clear is it if the Heat are still statistically the superior team in the NBA? Sure, it's fun to bask in the schadenfreude, but the reality is that if this is the "struggling Heat", they're going to lap the league when things click.

 

 

Based on what? Are you talking about Hollinger's power rankings on espn? It's even worse than the BCS. Look how well he predicts NBA standings. He's no better than anyone else, and goes out on a limb about as often as Dick Vitale does when he picks NCAA hoops.

 

The Bulls just crushed a Golden State team which just beat the Knicks on the road. Yet the Knicks beat the Bulls at home. so how does this factor into his ratings?

 

I just don't believe you can easily distill basketball to stats. More than a lot of media guys, Hollinger seems to have an increased interest in the Heat, because he and his PER predicted that the Heat should run away with a title. Him and his PER will end up looking bad if the Heat are a flop. He predicted 68 wins.

 

I also happen to believe the PER is stupid. A decent player on a bad team can put up big numbers (Chris Bosh). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out he wasn't going to do it with the Heat. And no amount of math could replace common sense there.

 

No, basically every predictive statistical measure has the Heat on top of the NBA right now. "Common Sense" is highly subjective, and everybody has an increased level of interest in the Heat. The statistics aren't massaged to make the Heat look good, the Heat look good, and it shows in the statistics. Four single-digit losses against good teams where they still played well aren't enough to sway them. The "eye test" is a far worse way of evaluating team performance than almost any statistical measure.

 

As much as basketball can be a team sport, it's far less so of a "team is greater than the sum of parts" than the NBA, NHL or pro soccer. It is more team-based than baseball, though, so it has that going for it.

[DivineBovine]

You make some valid points. You are right about this team is a bunch of highly talented players that are playing at a level less than the sum of its parts. I think thats the first thing everyone thought when they heard Wade and LeBron were gonna play together. It's actually really interesting to see because its really a discussion about which is more important, superstars or role players. The Bulls would win between 40-50 games every year on the strength of 9 role players of various ability. Everyone said they desperately needed a superstar player to get to the next level. And they did. Eventually even they realized that no matter how hard they played, the best they could do is 50 wins and the 2nd round. Whats the point of doing that for the next 4 years. Something had to change.

 

Now we're looking at the opposite side of the spectrum. Miami is filled with not just starts but 2.5 legitimate superstars. LeBron is the best overall player of his generation. Wade is one of the top 3 SG of his generation. Bosh is one of the 5 best PFs in the NBA today. That's amazing that they've all been assembled on the same time. But with that much top end talent, there are going to be significant issues. Especially when 2 of them are alpha dogs. There are no established roles. Neither of them really seem to be sacrificing parts of their games to make a well rounded team. And a big issue is that they have no one outside of those 3. Jerry Stackhouse would be a great addition if he was the 2005 Dallas Stackhouse. But its 5 years later and hes a marginal nba player now. Same with Juwan Howard. Same with Ilgauskus, same with Magloire. Then you have the players that would be good back of your bench players like Arroyo, House, Chalmers, Jones, Anthony. Haslem is a nice 7th or 8th man on a team. So in this situation Miami desperately needs role players and until they get them, and until they learn to evolve their games for the good of the team, they are going to struggle.

 

 

There's always been 2 sides. One side said that the Heat was destined to win due to their sheer talent. The other side said that they weren't necessarily complimentary, there were no good role players. Nobody has been proven right yet.

 

But right now, the other side is winning. The big 3 are great. No doubt. But superstars are superstars because they can score and create their own shot. You don't need 3 guys who you can throw the ball to and expect to score 1 on 1. So a lot of it will come down to how well they do other things. And they do other things well. Like LeBron and his passing. But its not their passing, rebounding and defense that earned them their reputation and their max contracts.

[SpongeWorthy]

Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

How clear is it if the Heat are still statistically the superior team in the NBA? Sure, it's fun to bask in the schadenfreude, but the reality is that if this is the "struggling Heat", they're going to lap the league when things click.

 

 

Based on what? Are you talking about Hollinger's power rankings on espn? It's even worse than the BCS. Look how well he predicts NBA standings. He's no better than anyone else, and goes out on a limb about as often as Dick Vitale does when he picks NCAA hoops.

 

The Bulls just crushed a Golden State team which just beat the Knicks on the road. Yet the Knicks beat the Bulls at home. so how does this factor into his ratings?

 

I just don't believe you can easily distill basketball to stats. More than a lot of media guys, Hollinger seems to have an increased interest in the Heat, because he and his PER predicted that the Heat should run away with a title. Him and his PER will end up looking bad if the Heat are a flop. He predicted 68 wins.

 

I also happen to believe the PER is stupid. A decent player on a bad team can put up big numbers (Chris Bosh). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out he wasn't going to do it with the Heat. And no amount of math could replace common sense there.

 

No, basically every predictive statistical measure has the Heat on top of the NBA right now. "Common Sense" is highly subjective, and everybody has an increased level of interest in the Heat. The statistics aren't massaged to make the Heat look good, the Heat look good, and it shows in the statistics. Four single-digit losses against good teams where they still played well aren't enough to sway them. The "eye test" is a far worse way of evaluating team performance than almost any statistical measure.

 

As much as basketball can be a team sport, it's far less so of a "team is greater than the sum of parts" than the NBA, NHL or pro soccer. It is more team-based than baseball, though, so it has that going for it.

 

How are the statistical models capturing how well the Heat "should" be playing? Are they going off of career numbers for guys like James, Wade, and Bosh?

 

Because no one in their right mind thinks the Heat are the best team in the NBA, right now.

[bukie]

How are the statistical models capturing how well the Heat "should" be playing? Are they going off of career numbers for guys like James, Wade, and Bosh?

 

Because no one in their right mind thinks the Heat are the best team in the NBA, right now.

They're not capturing how well they "should" be playing, they're capturing how well they are playing right now, and it's still the best in the NBA.

 

So, yes, people in their right minds think the Heat are the best team in the NBA right now. People drunk on meaningless 9-game schadenfreude are not in their right minds.

 

Here is what is factual: the Heat, despite being 5-4, have the highest scoring margin in the Eastern Conference (second in the NBA), while playing one of the toughest schedules to this point, and absolutely blew out the team with the next best margin in the East. Two close losses to Boston, an OT loss to Utah and a 3-point loss in New Orleans doesn't counteract all that enough to drop the Heat behind even the Lakers, let alone any other team in the NBA.

 

Right now, it's the Heat and the Lakers and it's everyone else. And if this is what the Heat do when struggling, they'll be scary good when things click.

[SpongeWorthy]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

[DivineBovine]

Take Hollinger for example and his mental masturbation about stats. He has no idea. One thing that is clearly occurring right now is that the whole is less than the sum of its parts. We'll see what happens.

How clear is it if the Heat are still statistically the superior team in the NBA? Sure, it's fun to bask in the schadenfreude, but the reality is that if this is the "struggling Heat", they're going to lap the league when things click.

 

 

Based on what? Are you talking about Hollinger's power rankings on espn? It's even worse than the BCS. Look how well he predicts NBA standings. He's no better than anyone else, and goes out on a limb about as often as Dick Vitale does when he picks NCAA hoops.

 

The Bulls just crushed a Golden State team which just beat the Knicks on the road. Yet the Knicks beat the Bulls at home. so how does this factor into his ratings?

 

I just don't believe you can easily distill basketball to stats. More than a lot of media guys, Hollinger seems to have an increased interest in the Heat, because he and his PER predicted that the Heat should run away with a title. Him and his PER will end up looking bad if the Heat are a flop. He predicted 68 wins.

 

I also happen to believe the PER is stupid. A decent player on a bad team can put up big numbers (Chris Bosh). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out he wasn't going to do it with the Heat. And no amount of math could replace common sense there.

 

No, basically every predictive statistical measure has the Heat on top of the NBA right now. "Common Sense" is highly subjective, and everybody has an increased level of interest in the Heat. The statistics aren't massaged to make the Heat look good, the Heat look good, and it shows in the statistics. Four single-digit losses against good teams where they still played well aren't enough to sway them. The "eye test" is a far worse way of evaluating team performance than almost any statistical measure.

 

As much as basketball can be a team sport, it's far less so of a "team is greater than the sum of parts" than the NBA, NHL or pro soccer. It is more team-based than baseball, though, so it has that going for it.

 

 

Except for wins. Which is the most important one.

 

And I disagree about the last point. Sure its less of a team sport than the NFL or soccer. But its more than a lot of people make it out to be who are predicting the Heat to run away with it. Calculate the big 3's PER at the end of this year and compare to last season. I'd bet any amount of money that it will be far less. And there aren't many people who would argue with that.

 

Take these examples.

- LeBron drives and breaks down the defense. He kicks it to DWade outside who happens to be open. Now is DWade really that much more valuable in that particular situation than Ben Gordon? DWade gets paid a lot of money because he can also drive by 3 people and score. But there is some redundancy there.

- DWade drives to the hoop and misses a layup contested by 2 players. Bosh gets the board under the basket and puts it in. Is Bosh really that much more valuable in that particular situation than Marcus Camby? Bosh gets paid the big bucks because you can throw it to him in the post and he can make a contested jumper. But does a team with Wade and LeBron necessarily need a PF who can make a contested jumper in the post?

[bukie]

Oh, I see bukie is using the Sagarin predictor.

 

Isn't it entirely possible that a statistical model with less than 10 games of data would be a worse predictor than a more common sense approach (whatever that means)?

 

If the Lakers/Heat or Heat/Celtics were to play a 7 game series starting tomorrow, I know I'd pick LA and Boston in a heartbeat. Who would pick over New Orleans over either of those teams? Not many.

If the "common sense" approach is seeing a 5-4 record and chuckling to myself while popping a bottle of champagne on behalf of the 1996 Bulls, I'll take the statistical model, thanks.