Bears game 4: Sunday Oct. 3 at NYG on NBC

[NCCubFan]

I think we lose one of the next two road games but win the rest before the bye to be 6-1 at the bye.

If so it would almost certainly be at New York that they lose. Virtually no way that they lose to a pathetic Carolina unless it's a letdown after a 4-0 start.

[Magnetic Curses]

I think we lose one of the next two road games but win the rest before the bye to be 6-1 at the bye.

If so it would almost certainly be at New York that they lose. Virtually no way that they lose to a pathetic Carolina unless it's a letdown after a 4-0 start.

 

i would feel pretty bad if jimmy claussen beat us. you still never know.

[bukie]

As suspected, the Bears actually dropped to 12th in the FO ratings this week (KC is up to 9th), mostly due to a complete lack of winning anything impressively. The defense is actually the weak link at this point.

[UMFan83]

As suspected, the Bears actually dropped to 12th in the FO ratings this week (KC is up to 9th), mostly due to a complete lack of winning anything impressively. The defense is actually the weak link at this point.

 

I believe it. I don't think DVOA looks kindly at "bend but don't break". And we've been living too dangerously on that this year.

[rawaction]

I counted 17....

 

Mark Anderson

Lance Briggs

Desmond Clark

Rashied Davis

Roberto Garza

Robbie Gould

Chris Harris*

Tommie Harris

Devin Hester

Israel Idonije

Olin Kreutz

Patrick Mannelly

Daniel Manning

Brad Maynard

Charles Tillman

Brian Urlacher

Rod Wilson*

 

*=Left the Bears and returned between 2006 and 2010

 

 

Hunter Hillenmeyer is technically still on the roster too.

[Magnetic Curses]

As suspected, the Bears actually dropped to 12th in the FO ratings this week (KC is up to 9th), mostly due to a complete lack of winning anything impressively. The defense is actually the weak link at this point.

 

I believe it. I don't think DVOA looks kindly at "bend but don't break". And we've been living too dangerously on that this year.

 

make the opponents run as many plays as possible and try to strip the ball. getting a little old for that philosophy.

[UMFan83]

I counted 17....

 

Mark Anderson

Lance Briggs

Desmond Clark

Rashied Davis

Roberto Garza

Robbie Gould

Chris Harris*

Tommie Harris

Devin Hester

Israel Idonije

Olin Kreutz

Patrick Mannelly

Daniel Manning

Brad Maynard

Charles Tillman

Brian Urlacher

Rod Wilson*

 

*=Left the Bears and returned between 2006 and 2010

 

 

Hunter Hillenmeyer is technically still on the roster too.

 

Whoops, yeah him too.

[bukie]

As suspected, the Bears actually dropped to 12th in the FO ratings this week (KC is up to 9th), mostly due to a complete lack of winning anything impressively. The defense is actually the weak link at this point.

 

I believe it. I don't think DVOA looks kindly at "bend but don't break". And we've been living too dangerously on that this year.

Yesterday's game was the rare "double negative". Basically, a team's VOA is a mirror of their opponent's, except for instances where the other team didn't affect performance (penalties and missed FGs). Outside the penalties (which still count!), the Packers offense significantly outplayed the Bears defense, while the Bears offense slightly outplayed the Packer D and the Bears special teams wiped the floor with the Packers special teams.

[hawkeyecub]

As lines go, the offensive line is 28th against the run and 26th against the pass, and no other line is as bad at both as the Bears. D-line is 1st against the run and 28th against the pass due mostly to the lack of D-line sacks.

 

Here's my thing with their OL rankings. Like all football stats, they're completely dependent upon the players around them, but even moreso on the OL in my opinion.

 

The Vikings OL ranks pretty well in run blocking. But if you've seen any Vikings games this year, you know that Adrian is getting hit at or behind the line on over half of his carries. The success they've had is almost all due to him, yet he ranks 9th in DVOA. Well any time he gets stuffed it's because he wasn't able to break 3 tackles immediately. Put almost every one of those 8 guys in front of him in his spots and see his numbers.

Then you have Green Bay's pass protection that ranks 8th and is 3rd in sacks. They suck though. It's all Rodgers having a super quick release and avoiding the rush like you saw last night.

 

Defensively I think teams that give up empty yardage when games are pretty much decided get penalized way too much. The Vikings defense ranked 21st last week even though they were giving up almost nothing until they sat back and played soft with a 14 point 4th quarter lead. I just can't reconcile these things yet.

[Wilson A2000]

I didn't watch Omiyale much, but I didn't see him being beaten regularly which is a good thing. I can't believe the guy I wanted no part of three weeks ago could be the starting LT the rest of the season. Even when Williams comes back, is Omiyale the starting LT?

[rawaction]

I didn't watch Omiyale much, but I didn't see him being beaten regularly which is a good thing. I can't believe the guy I wanted no part of three weeks ago could be the starting LT the rest of the season. Even when Williams comes back, is Omiyale the starting LT?

 

Omiyale played well except for a play where he just let a guy cross his face because he knew it was Garza's assignment. And not to slight him by any means, he didn't face Clay Matthews very much. Matthews was across from the RT most of the game.

 

As for the other decisions yesterday, very interesting stuff.

 

First, no Tommie Harris. I think the Bears will give him every shot to earn his PT back, but I think they are done with him at the end of the year. My mock draft from Week 1 (yeah, I'm one of those people) had them taking a DT in the 1st round regardless of Harris. Now, it may be the team's biggest need by the offseason.

 

Secondly, I didn't see much talk about Bowman getting benched. He missed a few tackles early, was lazy in coverage, and did not play after the 1st quarter....and he was not hurt. Tim Jennings (who I don't think is a good player) played very well in his absense. Made tackles, covered well. Wonder who's out there Sunday night?

 

Third, the OL has definitely looked better w/ Omiyale at LT and Shaffer at RT. Chris Williams better step it up when he's able to get back on the field or he will be watching a lot this season. I also thought it was a great idea to get J'Marcus Webb in a couple series to see what he had. Shaffer was not hurt, but Webb came in at RT....though he did look overmatched and not NFL ready.

[UMFan83]

Raw, based on that report about Tommie in the hotel, the fact that a disgruntled Tommie in the locker room probably isn't a good thing, and his salary, I don't think he lasts the season as a Bears. I think the Bears will take a week or two to look for a trade, but they definitely hurt his value yesterday, and then he will be cut. I think the Bears making Harris inactive yesterday signaled that they are moving on from the Tommie Harris era.

[JonJayCutler]

I'm not feeling as good about this game as others, as I think the Giants will be desperate to avoid two straight home losses. They move the ball well on offense, but are prone to turnovers so we must take advantage. Their defense is nothing special, so hopefully we come out firing on offense. Eli is no Rodgers or Romo, but he's not a bad QB by any stretch.

 

And yeah regardless of what happens this week we have to beat Carolina. Considering they're built around the running game and we have the #1 run defense in football, I think we'd have to mess up pretty bad to lose that game.

[Banedon]

First, no Tommie Harris. I think the Bears will give him every shot to earn his PT back, but I think they are done with him at the end of the year. My mock draft from Week 1 (yeah, I'm one of those people) had them taking a DT in the 1st round regardless of Harris. Now, it may be the team's biggest need by the offseason.

 

How is that a bigger need than O-line right now? I mean...yeah D-line is important...but they're putting pressure (if not getting sacks) without Tommie. O-line is a bigger area of need.

 

Secondly, I didn't see much talk about Bowman getting benched. He missed a few tackles early, was lazy in coverage, and did not play after the 1st quarter....and he was not hurt. Tim Jennings (who I don't think is a good player) played very well in his absense. Made tackles, covered well. Wonder who's out there Sunday night?

 

I think it'll be Jennings. Jennings did more on Sunday than Bowman has all season. Jennings did the fair catch on the Dallas onsides kick last week, which I think (along with good practices) got him an opportunity this week, and he took advantage by making good, hard tackles, and being very aware of his surroundings on that fumble. Jennings may not be uber-talented, but so far, he seems like a pretty smart football player.

 

Third, the OL has definitely looked better w/ Omiyale at LT and Shaffer at RT. Chris Williams better step it up when he's able to get back on the field or he will be watching a lot this season. I also thought it was a great idea to get J'Marcus Webb in a couple series to see what he had. Shaffer was not hurt, but Webb came in at RT....though he did look overmatched and not NFL ready.

 

Agreed all around. Williams should be on a short leash. Tice has done a great job with what he's been given.

 

 

It hurts me to say this, but has the coaching staff already earned itself another season? Even Lovie? They've started out better than anyone thought (even if this is somewhat of an illusion). I see a team that can really develop with some smart drafting. Hopefully, Lovie and Jerry will listen to their other coaches on draft day.

[jersey cubs fan]

First, no Tommie Harris. I think the Bears will give him every shot to earn his PT back, but I think they are done with him at the end of the year. My mock draft from Week 1 (yeah, I'm one of those people) had them taking a DT in the 1st round regardless of Harris. Now, it may be the team's biggest need by the offseason.

 

How is that a bigger need than O-line right now? I mean...yeah D-line is important...but they're putting pressure (if not getting sacks) without Tommie. O-line is a bigger area of need.

---------------

It hurts me to say this, but has the coaching staff already earned itself another season? Even Lovie? They've started out better than anyone thought (even if this is somewhat of an illusion). I see a team that can really develop with some smart drafting. Hopefully, Lovie and Jerry will listen to their other coaches on draft day.

 

I absolutely agree that offensive line remains priority number 1. They've spent a plethora of picks on defensive tackles the past several years, and early ones at that. Williams remains the only relatively high pick on the offensive line, and you need 5 of those on every play.

 

What I don't understand is your note on the coaching staff. They've won three games. 9 should have been the bare minimum for acceptance in my opinion, which means they need to win 6 more. This team can absolutely fall apart in heartbeat and revert to the 2007-2009 form. 3-0 does not guarantee a playoff spot. A couple surprising wins does not guarantee they will avoid several disappointing losses. Let's wait before that question even gets asked, let alone answered.

[Banedon]

What I don't understand is your note on the coaching staff. They've won three games. 9 should have been the bare minimum for acceptance in my opinion, which means they need to win 6 more. This team can absolutely fall apart in heartbeat and revert to the 2007-2009 form. 3-0 does not guarantee a playoff spot. A couple surprising wins does not guarantee they will avoid several disappointing losses. Let's wait before that question even gets asked, let alone answered.

 

You're right, of course. It's overreacting to say one way or the other. I'm just really encouraged by what I've seen so far...some uncharacteristic Bears things like "name" players getting sat, or adjustments being made, and I get excited.

[rawaction]

I think it could be argued that DL is a bigger need than OL. The Bears are showing they can win without a strong OL. They are also showing they can win without a great pass rushing DL. But they aren't getting a ton out of the 3 positions outside of Peppers, except for effort out of Toeina and Adams. Without Tommie, you are looking at a DL (again outside of Peppers) with an aging Adams, Harrison who has done nothing, a 4th round pick changing positions, a 6th round pick who has done nothing in 4 years, and 2 undrafted FAs. Serious lack of premier talent on the DL.

 

Plus, you have to factor in that interior OL can be found in rounds 2-4 in the draft and are rarely 1st round talents. And you can find cheap servicable FAs on the OL easier than DL.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it could be argued that DL is a bigger need than OL. The Bears are showing they can win without a strong OL. They are also showing they can win without a great pass rushing DL. But they aren't getting a ton out of the 3 positions outside of Peppers, except for effort out of Toeina and Adams. Without Tommie, you are looking at a DL (again outside of Peppers) with an aging Adams, Harrison who has done nothing, a 4th round pick changing positions, a 6th round pick who has done nothing in 4 years, and 2 undrafted FAs. Serious lack of premier talent on the DL.

 

Plus, you have to factor in that interior OL can be found in rounds 2-4 in the draft and are rarely 1st round talents. And you can find cheap servicable FAs on the OL easier than DL.

 

The Bears have found plenty of servicable players on the DL in the non-elite picks, and they've wasted far more high picks on that position. They may be showing they can win without a strong OL, but if you think the DL is weak then they are showing the same thing there. And they are clearly winning in spite of the offensive line, while the defensive line is at least contributing. If they could find a pass rushing specialist defensive tackle, okay, but those are very rare and far too specific a need to focus in on. They need 5 offensive lineman and have spent one meaningful pick on it in a decade. Cutler can't live forever getting knocked around like that. They don't have a superstar WR and don't look like they are going to get one. They absolutely have to fix the line if they want to try and get the most out of their investment in Cutler.

[Banedon]

I think it could be argued that DL is a bigger need than OL. The Bears are showing they can win without a strong OL. They are also showing they can win without a great pass rushing DL. But they aren't getting a ton out of the 3 positions outside of Peppers, except for effort out of Toeina and Adams. Without Tommie, you are looking at a DL (again outside of Peppers) with an aging Adams, Harrison who has done nothing, a 4th round pick changing positions, a 6th round pick who has done nothing in 4 years, and 2 undrafted FAs. Serious lack of premier talent on the DL.

 

Plus, you have to factor in that interior OL can be found in rounds 2-4 in the draft and are rarely 1st round talents. And you can find cheap servicable FAs on the OL easier than DL.

 

Completely disagree. Having a mediocre DL doesn't get your star QB killed though. We spent $90 million on the D-line this past offseason. Time to put that kind of effort into the O-line.

 

According to FO, the 3 teams we've played so far all have O-lines ranked in the top 10 in pass protection. The Giants are ranked 20th. We should be able to get to Eli.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

[bukie]

I think it could be argued that DL is a bigger need than OL. The Bears are showing they can win without a strong OL. They are also showing they can win without a great pass rushing DL. But they aren't getting a ton out of the 3 positions outside of Peppers, except for effort out of Toeina and Adams. Without Tommie, you are looking at a DL (again outside of Peppers) with an aging Adams, Harrison who has done nothing, a 4th round pick changing positions, a 6th round pick who has done nothing in 4 years, and 2 undrafted FAs. Serious lack of premier talent on the DL.

 

Plus, you have to factor in that interior OL can be found in rounds 2-4 in the draft and are rarely 1st round talents. And you can find cheap servicable FAs on the OL easier than DL.

 

Completely disagree. Having a mediocre DL doesn't get your star QB killed though. We spent $90 million on the D-line this past offseason. Time to put that kind of effort into the O-line.

 

According to FO, the 3 teams we've played so far all have O-lines ranked in the top 10 in pass protection. The Giants are ranked 20th. We should be able to get to Eli.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Not to go all chicken-egg analogy on you here, but maybe those three teams are top 10 in pass protection because they've played just 3 games, one being against the Bears DL.

 

FO's numbers will be opponent-adjusted after next week, which will make them more representative and predictive overall and less speculative.

 

The biggest concern right now that I have for the Bears is the pass defense, because everything else has gone as well or better than expected (or in the case of the rushing offense, as bad as expected and it's not going to get better).

[Banedon]

Not to go all chicken-egg analogy on you here, but maybe those three teams are top 10 in pass protection because they've played just 3 games, one being against the Bears DL.

 

I considered that, but discounted it because it didn't fit my point as well.

 

 

:-)

[rawaction]

Everyone keeps saying Cutler can't survive if he keeps getting hit. Obviously, you don't want Cutler to get hit, but has it ever crossed anyone's mind that he can take it? He hasn't missed a game since he became a starting QB. Can't say for sure in Denver, but he has only missed 1 play as a Bear due to injury.

 

Nobody says Aaron Rodgers can't keep taking hits, and he took 51 sacks last year. Roethlisberger took 50. Vick has taken by far more than anyone this year, and is a runner so that just multiplies the hits he takes.

 

Again, you don't want Cutler getting hit. But the OL has and will get better. Its the only position in the league where you need time together to work as a unit. The DL is probably playing at its highest point right now due to fresh legs early in the season. By the end of the year, I think the lack of talent on the DL is going to show unless someone really steps up.

[jersey cubs fan]

Everyone keeps saying Cutler can't survive if he keeps getting hit. Obviously, you don't want Cutler to get hit, but has it ever crossed anyone's mind that he can take it? He hasn't missed a game since he became a starting QB. Can't say for sure in Denver, but he has only missed 1 play as a Bear due to injury.

 

Nobody says Aaron Rodgers can't keep taking hits, and he took 51 sacks last year. Roethlisberger took 50. Vick has taken by far more than anyone this year, and is a runner so that just multiplies the hits he takes.

 

Again, you don't want Cutler getting hit. But the OL has and will get better. Its the only position in the league where you need time together to work as a unit. The DL is probably playing at its highest point right now due to fresh legs early in the season. By the end of the year, I think the lack of talent on the DL is going to show unless someone really steps up.

 

I think it's completely irresponsible and illogical to just say he's taken it well so far so no reason to think he can't keep taking it. And it's not just pass protection. They can't run block worth a crap. This team should never go for it on 4th and 1 because they can't get it. The offensive line has been ignored for far too long. The occasional stop gap journeyman does not solve anything.

 

I'm not eliminating the possibility of drafting a tackle early, but it's very clearly not the number 1 priority.

[Guest]

It's tough to prioritize right now because there are so many areas where the team has to build. Here's how I'd rank them:

 

OL: There's simply not much talent here. Can't open holes in the run game. Can't protect Cutler

 

DL: Pass protection starts up front and other than Peppers we can't generate any pressure with the front four.

 

DB: Probably the least talented group on the field. Would have them ranked higher, but I'm a believer in building the lines first.

 

LB: They're great, but dang they're getting old.

 

OL: What, I can't list them twice?

 

WR: what we really need is a stud, though, there's plenty of depth guys. And I wouldn't invest a first rounder here instead of the groups above.

 

 

 

Not needs:

 

RB, TE, QB

[rawaction]

The biggest concern right now that I have for the Bears is the pass defense, because everything else has gone as well or better than expected (or in the case of the rushing offense, as bad as expected and it's not going to get better).

 

I understand the concern w/ the pass D. But I don't really see it as inhibiting this team's ability to win. I may be looking at it as the glass half full, but Detroit was able to pass vs. the prevent. Dallas and GB were able to throw by spreading out the defense and using short slant passes. Even when all those teams were able to throw, they were only able to average 4.4, 7.3, and 7.0 yards per attempt. And GBs numbers are skewed by a handful of big plays to an All-Pro TE. The Bears have basically shut WRs down for the most part.