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Posted

is there something i'm missing here? i really feel like i just must not understand the process very well, cause offering him arbitration kind of seems like a no-brainer

 

Hendry seems to hate the arbitration process in general, even when it's guys who are staying on the team. That's why he's so proud of their record of avoiding hearings, at least until former Cub Ryan Theriot broke that string. I guarantee that's why Hendry suddenly stopped liking the guy so much.

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Old-Timey Member
Posted
From Phil Rogers:

 

The Cubs probably would not have received anything if Lilly left as a free agent after the season as they were not likely to offer salary arbitration -- a condition of vesting for draft-choice compensation.

Does Hendry not understand how this process works?

 

is there something i'm missing here? i really feel like i just must not understand the process very well, cause offering him arbitration kind of seems like a no-brainer

 

When a player accepts an offer of arbitration, they are bound to a one year contract. Each side submits a figure, and if a compromise on salary cannot be reached, an arbitrator decides which person made the more compelling argument and awards the figure they requested. (Most everybody already knows this, I'm just trying to be clear).

 

However, the absolute lowest salary that a team can offer is 80% of the player's previous year salary. (This changed from 90% in the last CBA). Therefore, the absolute lowest amount of salary Ted Lilly could have ended up with was 80% of his 12 million salary this year, or 9.6 million dollars.

 

There is certainly a degree of risk in offering a player a contract when you know you'll have to pay them between 9.6 million and whatever number it is they decide to submit.

 

That is, of course, assuming they accept the offer. Most offers of arbitration are made when it is assumed the player will be offered a lucrative multiyear deal elsewhere... hence making the prospect of a one year contract less appealing to them. I would have assumed Lilly would get a 2-4 year contract offer. So I'm not quite sure why we wouldn't offer. But there could be an underlying medical condition that we were afraid would affect his FA appeal.

Posted
From Phil Rogers:

 

The Cubs probably would not have received anything if Lilly left as a free agent after the season as they were not likely to offer salary arbitration -- a condition of vesting for draft-choice compensation.

Does Hendry not understand how this process works?

 

He probably thinks it's ungentlemanly to lower a player's value on the FA market like that.

Posted
From Phil Rogers:

 

The Cubs probably would not have received anything if Lilly left as a free agent after the season as they were not likely to offer salary arbitration -- a condition of vesting for draft-choice compensation.

Does Hendry not understand how this process works?

 

is there something i'm missing here? i really feel like i just must not understand the process very well, cause offering him arbitration kind of seems like a no-brainer

 

When a player accepts an offer of arbitration, they are bound to a one year contract. Each side submits a figure, and if a compromise on salary cannot be reached, an arbitrator decides which person made the more compelling argument and awards the figure they requested. (Most everybody already knows this, I'm just trying to be clear).

 

However, the absolute lowest salary that a team can offer is 80% of the player's previous year salary. (This changed from 90% in the last CBA). Therefore, the absolute lowest amount of salary Ted Lilly could have ended up with was 80% of his 12 million salary this year, or 9.6 million dollars.

 

There is certainly a degree of risk in offering a player a contract when you know you'll have to pay them between 9.6 million and whatever number it is they decide to submit.

 

That is, of course, assuming they accept the offer. Most offers of arbitration are made when it is assumed the player will be offered a lucrative multiyear deal elsewhere... hence making the prospect of a one year contract less appealing to them. I would have assumed Lilly would get a 2-4 year contract offer. So I'm not quite sure why we wouldn't offer. But there could be an underlying medical condition that we were afraid would affect his FA appeal.

 

excellent post thank you. I wondered the same.

Posted

Ted Lilly, thank you for your service to this club.

 

You too Theriot. While you were extremly overrated in your time here, you showed up everyday and gave it your all.

 

I wish you both the best in LA

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'm much too happy about not having to watch Ryan Theriot everyday anymore. Not quite Neifi-level happy, because that's basically an unreachable level. But quite happy.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'm much too happy about not having to watch Ryan Theriot everyday anymore. Not quite Neifi-level happy, because that's basically an unreachable level. But quite happy.

 

Neifi's only full season with us was significantly better than Ryan Theriot's 2010 has been.

 

Think about it.

Posted
From Phil Rogers:

 

The Cubs probably would not have received anything if Lilly left as a free agent after the season as they were not likely to offer salary arbitration -- a condition of vesting for draft-choice compensation.

Does Hendry not understand how this process works?

 

Apparently not. As was discussed earlier in the thread, the Cubs have not received compensation for losing a Type A free agent since Jim Hendry took over as GM. The Cubs haven't lost a whole lot of Type A guys to free agency during his tenure, but it's still kind of telling in terms of how Hendry handles these matters.

 

That really depends on how much money you want to have available in the FA market. If the fear is Lilly taking the arbitration like the rumors suggest and limiting your ability to sign someone else. Thats $10 million that could be used elsewhere and bringing up someone else from the minors.

 

I think this was a very acceptable trade given the market and who we gave up.

Posted (edited)
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade. Edited by illiniguy
Posted
I'm much too happy about not having to watch Ryan Theriot everyday anymore. Not quite Neifi-level happy, because that's basically an unreachable level. But quite happy.

 

Neifi's only full season with us was significantly better than Ryan Theriot's 2010 has been.

 

Think about it.

 

http://www.magazine.ucla.edu/depts/quicktakes/evolutionary-disgust.jpg

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I have no idea how the Pirates got those two prospects for Octavio Dotel.

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I have no idea how the Pirates got those two prospects for Octavio Dotel.

Hendry always says that he wants both teams to win the trade. I doubt he pushed like a guy who held all of the cards.

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I have no idea how the Pirates got those two prospects for Octavio Dotel.

Hendry always says that he wants both teams to win the trade. I doubt he pushed like a guy who held all of the cards.

 

Did he feel remorse for the Aramis and DLee trades or something?

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I have no idea how the Pirates got those two prospects for Octavio Dotel.

Hendry always says that he wants both teams to win the trade. I doubt he pushed like a guy who held all of the cards.

 

Did he feel remorse for the Aramis and DLee trades or something?

The DLee trade at the time was pretty fair. Choi was still a top prospect and Lee was a salary dump. Aramis, yeah you got me on that one.

Posted

Not a bad trade. Not an awful one. But I was hoping for a little more. I have basically the same sentiment with everyone here.

 

Also, disappointed no one else was dealt. I thought for sure at least Nady and one of Fontenot/Baker would be gone.

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I have no idea how the Pirates got those two prospects for Octavio Dotel.

Hendry always says that he wants both teams to win the trade. I doubt he pushed like a guy who held all of the cards.

 

Did he feel remorse for the Aramis and DLee trades or something?

The DLee trade at the time was pretty fair. Choi was still a top prospect and Lee was a salary dump. Aramis, yeah you got me on that one.

 

 

Maybe Hendry should petition MLB for all games to end in ties so nobody's feelings get hurt.

Posted
I hate that Lilly is a lot better than Dotel, yet they got back the better prospect. Hendry needs to quit trying to make sure both teams win a trade.

 

I can't explain why this is the case, but apparently cost for relievers has been incredibly high this trade deadline. The Nationals got Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps (from a pretty intelligent Minnesota organization), the Blue Jays couldn't trade Frasor/Downs/Gregg because they were demanding so much for them and Dotel netted potentially more than Lilly/Theriot did.

 

Market value means a ton in these types of deals and, for whatever reason, teams seemed to value relievers much more highly than starters this deadline.

Posted
Not a bad trade. Not an awful one. But I was hoping for a little more. I have basically the same sentiment with everyone here.

 

Also, disappointed no one else was dealt. I thought for sure at least Nady and one of Fontenot/Baker would be gone.

 

Wait until August for those to be handled through waivers.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Yeah, most of the people we want to trade still will be unaffected by the waiver situation. Nobody is going to pick up the full contract of Fukudome, Zambrano, Soriano, Lee (if he changes his mind), Ramirez, or Silva. And while somebody may file a claim on Nady or Fontenot, I don't think it's terribly likely they would.

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