tyler colvin is not that great

[Outshined_One]

my argument is that he's the same guy now he was at the beginning of the season. if you loved him before the season, i suppose you should still love him now. the fact that he's hit a fluky number of home runs in the major leagues shouldn't sway your thoughts on how good he is or can be.

 

I agree with this somewhat. Most people though hadn't really seen Colvin before this year. He hit 16 home runs in under 500 AB's in 07. He hit only 14 in over 500 AB's in 08 but it was uncertain how much of that was slowed by the problems that led to the TJS. He then only hit 1 home run in Daytona in 114 AB's but 13 in Tennessee in just over 300 AB's. And then of course he added all that muscle over the offseason.

 

It's also worth pointing out that he had one of the most horrific injuries in the minors while with Daytona in 2009, when he and Tony Campana had a head-on collision when both made full-speed dives for a ball at the same time. Colvin didn't fully recover from it until late May or so, not too long before he was promoted from Daytona to Tennessee.

 

I think part of the backlash against Tyler Colvin stems from the fact that it seems like he's far exceeded any expectations we had for him coming into this season. Colvin was never an elite level prospect with the Cubs, but I have to wonder how his numbers would have looked if he had a clean bill of health throughout his tenure in the minors.

 

Frankly, I'm of the opinion that he should get as much playing time this season as possible. This team isn't going anywhere, so we might as well see if Colvin can elevate his value to the point of using him as a valuable trade chip in the offseason. If he falls on his face, oh well.

[soonercub]

Why all the knit picking on Colvin? The kids is having a real nice year. Will he ever be the perfect hitter? Hell no, the closest thing we have to that right now is Pujols. But the kid has really started to evolve into a better hitter. He had surgery a couple years ago and last off season was the first time he got to really go hard at weight training and you can see the dramatic effects. He has also re-worked his swing dramatically. Look at some video when he came up last year. At that time he was in a very pronounced crouch.

 

This year he is much more upright and using his body more to his advantage. Also, his bat path is very similar to Gary Sheffield. He is able to keep the bat in the ball plane for a very long time. If you notice how low his hands are towards the end of his swing. This is really helping him put more backspin on balls and staying away from top spin. Maybe that is a factor in him having a higher rate of fly balls leaving the yard. Maybe it is not luck, maybe it is because he is swinging really well now. Can he maintain it? I sure hope so! It is fun to watch.

 

Here is some 2010 video, notice how his hands finish below his right shoulder. That is very hard to do.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=502125

 

Here is some video of 2009, notice he has to come out of his crouch which would probably lead to putting more top spin and less backspin on the ball.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6770005

 

Just my 2cents.

[rawaction]

 

Colvin's not going to be able to work on his strikeout rate well at the minor league level. It was already acceptable in the minor leagues. He needs to see major league pitching if he's going to be able to make progress on that now (both to catch up to the hard fastball and the sharp breaking balls that he struggles with at times. He's not going to see many of either of those pitches in AAA).

 

Colvin definitely has some worrying numbers. The walk rate needs to not slide any further or will be a major concern. The strikeout rate is too high (although it has been slowly sliding down). His BABIP doesn't worry me anymore. It was ridiculously unsustainable but it's fallen so much. At .319 now, that's the type of BABIP Colvin can maintain because he usually makes good contact with the ball when he actually does make contact. And the HR/FB number is definitely unsustainable.

 

Most of Colvin's HR's leave the park so fast though that even if he doesn't get quite as strong of contact on them in the future they'll likely just increase his singles or doubles rate.

 

Colvin's probably still a .775-.825 OPS player who can play all 3 OF positions. If he can lower his strikeout rate to 20-22% he could be a little more than that. He's likely always going to be a mistake hitter. He's the type of player you typically want to stay away from in free agency because his numbers will bounce around from year to year but he would likely be just fine as a cheap starter and he isn't so good that keeping him as a 4th OF isn't a horrible decision either. A smaller market team would likely find more value for Colvin but he'll probably be fine with whatever role the Cubs decide to put him in.

 

I agree with all of this. I compared him to a handful of players in my post (Guillen, Pence, Cantu, etc). All those guys have had very inconsistent seasons. All of the have had a season with an OPS in the mid 8's and above, all have failed to reach a 700 OPS in a season. If Colvin can find a way to be consistently in the .775-.825 range, then he will be a valuable player to this team. With his speed and age, hopefully he could stay at the higher end of that range. If so, he's a decent everyday OF probably somewhere in the 5-7 spots in the lineup. If he's inconsistent and on the low end, then he's still a decent 4th OF being used similar to the way he is now.

[BigSlick]

this board's need to either deify or [expletive] on Tyler Colvin is totally creepy. He's just a guy who plays baseball and is sorta okay at it

I have the awful habit of tuning into the Score sometimes and man...some people really need to cling to something on the Cubs and Colvin has transformed into that.

 

NSBB is the kneejerk capital of Cub reactions so its only natural. When the papers and the media get ahold of Colvin and build the expectations up for 2011...its not gonna be good for the kid or the city. Who knows, whatever, I'm expecting the worst out of everything. (That he'll play exactly to his talent level and everyone will freak out when its not a repeat of this year)

 

I'm not planning on seriously paying attention to the Cubs for another few years anyway.

[ScrubMD]

Why are some people so oddly obsessed with making sure nobody thinks Colvin is any good? It's very creepy. He's a 25 year old first round draft pick who is having his second consecutive good season. I don't see much hope that he'll be a super star or even an all-star caliber player, but it seems perfectly reasonable that he could provide .800+ OPS for very cheap for a few years. That could be a very valuable asset if we get a GM who can take advantage of the financial flexibility that creates.

 

Apparently the only evidence that he's terrible is that the month he played more, his OPS was only a little bit better than everyone else instead of a lot better. Can't people just be excited that we might have a cheap, serviceable player instead of being wierd?

 

I'm trying not to sound "anti-Colvin" because I'm not. I like him and think he can be productive, I just think it's better for his development right now to keep him in more limited, favorable matchups instead of playing him every day. Give him a chance to build some confidence while continuing to work on his approach.

 

I wasn't referring to you, you always seem pretty reasonable. I was partly referring to this thread and partly to other posts I've seen over the past couple months. A lot of it seems really over the top and is just as stupid as someone saying he's the next Billy Williams.

[Sammy Sofa]

I wasn't referring to you, you always seem pretty reasonable. I was partly referring to this thread and partly to other posts I've seen over the past couple months. A lot of it seems really over the top and is just as stupid as someone saying he's the next Billy Williams.

 

Like what?

[UK1679666180]

With Colvin...

 

His floor is probably that of Corey Patterson, his ceiling is Geoff Jenkins...

 

Most likely he'll be a similar hitter to Alex Gordon of the Royals.

[risico]

One thing people often ignore is that Colvin is a good (very good) corner outfielder. He does not belong in CF, but his value defensively as a corner OF is quite good.

 

He will definitely need to improve his approach at the plate if he wants to be a successful major league hitter. He's currently posting a ridiculous 15.3% swinging-strike rate and his K rate approaching 30%.

 

Right now his whiff numbers are worse than anything Jeff Francoeur has ever posted. That's not a good sign.

[Guest]

Tyler Colvin is not a very good corner outfielder. Depending on how much you believe different systems, he's a bit above average at the corners, and below average in CF, at best. He's a low OBP, potentially high IsoP corner OF who will probably flirt with an .800 OPS. He's great to have around as a reserve OF(especially if he continues to not have a large platoon split), but the problem is that if he's playing everyday then the team probably isn't very good.

[Guest]

Tyler Colvin is not a very good corner outfielder. Depending on how much you believe different systems, he's a bit above average at the corners, and below average in CF, at best. He's a low OBP, potentially high IsoP corner OF who will probably flirt with an .800 OPS. He's great to have around as a reserve OF(especially if he continues to not have a large platoon split), but the problem is that if he's playing everyday then the team probably isn't very good.

Not necessarily. He's fine to have out there as a cheap player with mediocre to decent production if you're adding an Adrian Gonzalez at first base & such. He's the kind of player where you take advantage of any cheap production he can provide, then if he doesn't grow as a player, you trade him or non-tender him when his price starts to grow.

 

Kinda like Theriot.

[Productive Outs]

Can we stop calling him a kid?

[MWV]

http://loyalkng.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/nelson-muntz.gif

 

"Some of us prefer illusion to despair."

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

When I see Colvin, I think of Francoeur. While I know there are some differences, both are players who have power, but do not walk and have trouble making contact. Both also had smoking hot starts, and I think Colvin, like Francoeur will eventually become a victim of his lack of plate discipline and inability to make consistent contact.

 

Francoeur also had better minor league numbers than Colvin, so while Francouer still provides some value albeit limited, Colvin's crash could be much more severe.

[dew1679666265]

I wasn't referring to you, you always seem pretty reasonable. I was partly referring to this thread and partly to other posts I've seen over the past couple months. A lot of it seems really over the top and is just as stupid as someone saying he's the next Billy Williams.

 

I wasn't sure if you were or not, but wasn't sure since you referenced me pointing out his weak June. I'm trying to stay pretty middle of the road with Colvin. He's hard to figure out at this point - are his 2009 Daytona numbers the real him or his 2009 Tennessee/2010 Cubs numbers the real Colvin - and because of that, it's hard to make a declarative statement either way.

[scarey]

Crap like this is why people hate NSBB. The Cubs are having one their worst seasons in recent memory and a bright spot like Colvin comes along, a young guy in our organization that is actually having success, and people go out of there way to try and prove he isn't as great as he's playing. It may be true, but stop trying to analyze it and let the kid do the talking... none of us expected him to hit his way onto the team in the spring and into a starting spot in the lineup, so who is to say he can't keep it up? God forbid people try to pull something positive out of an otherwise horrific year.

 

Oh, and the all lower case thing is really annoying.

Actually, realistic analysis like this is what is best about NSBB.

 

I was very intrigued by the statics offered in this thread. The delivery of the statistics though sounded overly critical. Statements like "we should not be particularly excited about him", "he's going to provide no value", and "there isn't much reason for enthusiasm here" seemed a little harsh.

 

As an infrequent visitor here and a person that regularly posts at a different message board, I tend to agree with Aramis Fan. In fact, I rarely venture over to the Cubs Discussions forum actually and usually am all over the Minor Leagues forum instead (things tend to be a little bit more positive over there). The pessimism and holier than thou attitude that tends to shine through here as a result of specific, overly vocal individuals tends to push me and others I know away though.

 

I'm not trying to pick on you Treeman, but just wanted to point out Aramis Fan's accusations are not unfounded.

[Sammy Sofa]

The irony of Aramis Fan declaring what is wrong with NSBB is suffocating.

[risico]

Tyler Colvin is not a very good corner outfielder. Depending on how much you believe different systems, he's a bit above average at the corners, and below average in CF, at best. He's a low OBP, potentially high IsoP corner OF who will probably flirt with an .800 OPS. He's great to have around as a reserve OF(especially if he continues to not have a large platoon split), but the problem is that if he's playing everyday then the team probably isn't very good.

 

I know UZR has not stabilized at this point, but if you believe UZR at all, then Tyler Colvin is a top 5 corner OF in the game this season.

 

His UZR/150 is right in line with Justin Upton and Ben Zobrist. His defensive value is mostly due to range but I would say he's better than "a bit above average" defensively.

 

I agree that he doesn't belong in CF. I think it's way too early to talk about a platoon split though, especially since he's hit more line drives against LHP than he has against RHP. His approach at the plate is his biggest problem - there's no way he'll be a valuable hitter if he's swinging and missing as often as he does.

[NonProfitCow]

When I see Colvin, I think of Francoeur.

I see Rick Ankiel.

[Formerly Snayke]

When I see Colvin, I think of Francoeur.

I see Rick Ankiel.

 

I see myself in this thread.

 

Great objective analysis. It would make Al Yellon weep.

[Tracer Bullet]

I was very intrigued by the statics offered in this thread. The delivery of the statistics though sounded overly critical. Statements like "we should not be particularly excited about him", "he's going to provide no value", and "there isn't much reason for enthusiasm here" seemed a little harsh.

 

As an infrequent visitor here and a person that regularly posts at a different message board, I tend to agree with Aramis Fan. In fact, I rarely venture over to the Cubs Discussions forum actually and usually am all over the Minor Leagues forum instead (things tend to be a little bit more positive over there). The pessimism and holier than thou attitude that tends to shine through here as a result of specific, overly vocal individuals tends to push me and others I know away though.

 

I'm not trying to pick on you Treeman, but just wanted to point out Aramis Fan's accusations are not unfounded.

 

I think it's the part where he asks people not to analyze a player that's most troubling.

 

Crap like this is why people hate NSBB. The Cubs are having one their worst seasons in recent memory and a bright spot like Colvin comes along, a young guy in our organization that is actually having success, and people go out of there way to try and prove he isn't as great as he's playing. It may be true, but stop trying to analyze it and let the kid do the talking... none of us expected him to hit his way onto the team in the spring and into a starting spot in the lineup, so who is to say he can't keep it up? God forbid people try to pull something positive out of an otherwise horrific year.

 

Oh, and the all lower case thing is really annoying.

 

"The team sucks but this one rookie is hitting a lot of HRs, so everyone bury your head in the sand and pretend he's great and don't think about it." Yeah, that's just not likely to happen.

[Schwarber Fan]

The irony of Aramis Fan declaring what is wrong with NSBB is suffocating.

 

sorry, we can't all be jerks like you.

[Backtobanks]

I'm all for letting him play somewhere for the rest of the season and then make a decision as to whether he is a starting OF during the offseason. I agree that he's not someone you build your team around, but he might be a young, cheap role player.

[wvcbxl]

The irony of Aramis Fan declaring what is wrong with NSBB is suffocating.

 

sorry, we can't all be jerks like you.

 

No need to get personal - that goes for both of you.

[bukie]

As another perspective on the matter, here's a Fangraphs article on what could be expected from Colvin (and Boesch) going forward.

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree with ScrubMD. It seems like people try to make the argument whenever they can that Colvin is not good. If you are skeptical because of all of the failed Cubs hitting prospects, fine. But it's pretty ignorant of you if that's your reasoning.

 

I'm skeptical because of the totality of his career.