tyler colvin is not that great

[treebird]

this thread is for discussing the fact that expectations for tyler colvin are entirely too high and that we should not be particularly excited about him.

 

tyler colvin has displayed one skill as a major league hitter: hitting home runs.

 

he currently leads the major leagues in hr/flyball among hitters with at least 160pa. he's currently at 25.6%! this is not sustainable. last season, only one major league hitter who qualified for the batting title managed a rate that high: mark reynolds at 26.0%.

 

2009 qualified hitters top ten hr/fb

 

mark reynolds 26.0

ryan howard 25.4

carlos pena 23.8

prince fielder 23.1

alex rodriguez 22.7

adrian gonzalez 22.2

russel branyan 21.7

nelson cruz 21.2

raul inabnez 21.1

adam dunn 21.1

 

do you really believe tyler colvin is this type of guy? a huge power guy who can keep up this sort of rate (or, actually a rate better than that put up by everyone on this list but one)? the fact that he k's like one of these guys doesn't mean he is one.

 

tyler colvin is going to stop hitting home runs. when he does, he's going to provide no value.

 

there isn't much reason for enthusiasm here. certainly nothing approaching what i'm reading about in thread after thread here.

[UMFan83]

No but maybe when he stops hitting so many HRs, he'll have worked on getting on base more.

[JonJayCutler]

Of course he can't sustain the rate he is currently hitting HRs, because right now he is on pace for 40 in about 540 ABs, which would be a full season's worth of ABs. If he can just hit 18-22 HRs a year he would be plenty useful assuming he can learn to take more walks.

 

Anyone who has seen some of Colvin's homers this year knows the guy has quite a bit of power. He has hit several moonshots already.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I couldn't tell if the original post was serious or sarcasm, but it is ridiculous to say that there is "no reason for enthusiasm" with Colvin's performance. Clearly he won't continue to hit home runs at the same pace, but that doesn't mean he can't continue to be a productive player. In a season where very little has gone right for the Cubs, Colvin has been one of the few bright spots. If that isn't worth getting excited over, then what else is there?

[Sammy Sofa]

I couldn't tell if the original post was serious or sarcasm, but it is ridiculous to say that there is "no reason for enthusiasm" with Colvin's performance. Clearly he won't continue to hit home runs at the same pace, but that doesn't mean he can't continue to be a productive player. In a season where very little has gone right for the Cubs, Colvin has been one of the few bright spots. If that isn't worth getting excited over, then what else is there?

 

Yeah, screw that Castro guy.

 

Tree's post was right on. He spelled out exactly why Colvin's year so far needs to be viewed much more realistically than as we're often seeing on this board. Yes, the HR are a nice surprise, but they're basically all he's hitting. He's hitting them at a fantastically unrealistic rate, his OBP is hideous and his k to walk ratio is terrible; he's not demonstrating anything except an ability to hit a clearly unsustainable amount of home runs in limited playing time. I'm not saying the guy is hopeless because he's still young and his professional career has been so short, but it's clear he has a ton of work to do and it's tremendously unlikely that a guy whose offensive game is so wildly unbalanced right now is going to develop as needed jumping right into as much playing time as possible in the majors. Sure, this year is all but a bust for the Cubs, so if Fukudome is moved it's not the end of the world if he gets a lot of starts between now and the and of the year, but odds are the best thing for him next season would be for him to head back to the minors and start there to see if he can develop the other critical aspects of his offensive approach that are so lacking right now (and improving the defense wouldn't hurt, too). It's definitely fun to watch when he knocks one out, but he's got a long way to go before the Cubs can even think about making him a starting OF.

[dew1679666265]

I mentioned this before, but it's showing a little stronger now that as he gets more playing time, his numbers have gotten worse.

 

Mar/Apr: 53 PA - .935 OPS

May: 30 PA - 1.033 OPS

June: 75 PA - .780

July: 14 PA - .429 OPS (irrelevant, but I included it anyway)

 

The months he's gotten the most PAs, he's been worse. I think the reasoning behind that is the success is driven by the good matchups. As he's gotten more ABs, he's gotten worse - by quite a bit in June. It could just be sample size issues, it could be that he's not ready to be a consistent contributor yet, I'm not sure.

 

That said, he's 24 (25 in September) and there's no reason to write him off. The power thus far this year is unsustainable (most likely) but he's shown very good power in the minors at times (14 HR in just over 300 PAs last year in Tennessee).

 

He's really hard to figure out, especially recently. Last year in 129 PAs at Daytona, he had a .250/.326/.357 line with a .076 IsoP. However, in 330 PAs at Tennessee he posted a .300/.334/.524 line with a .034 IsoP. He has a .043 career IsoP.

 

I don't think he'll be a real patient hitter at any point, but he appears to have pretty solid power.

[wekim81]

I mentioned this before, but it's showing a little stronger now that as he gets more playing time, his numbers have gotten worse.

 

Mar/Apr: 53 PA - .935 OPS

May: 30 PA - 1.033 OPS

June: 75 PA - .780

July: 14 PA - .429 OPS (irrelevant, but I included it anyway)

 

Even though July is irrelevant, as you've stated..his slash line for the months is 278/278/611...an OPS of .889, not .429 as you stated.

 

Look - he's not a perfect player, but he's:

 

*Young, cheap, and team-controlled

*A left handed source of power

*A decent defender who can play 3 outfield positions

*Someone who [expletive] tries on this team, which is a rare commodity on the 2010 Cubbies.

 

So surely you can understand how some are excited by the way he's performed this season. Is he gonna have a SLG of .568 at the end of the year? No. But i'd be willing to bet that he's gonna hit 20-25 HR and be exciting to watch.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I couldn't tell if the original post was serious or sarcasm, but it is ridiculous to say that there is "no reason for enthusiasm" with Colvin's performance. Clearly he won't continue to hit home runs at the same pace, but that doesn't mean he can't continue to be a productive player. In a season where very little has gone right for the Cubs, Colvin has been one of the few bright spots. If that isn't worth getting excited over, then what else is there?

 

Yeah, screw that Castro guy.

 

Tree's post was right on. He spelled out exactly why Colvin's year so far needs to be viewed much more realistically than as we're often seeing on this board. Yes, the HR are a nice surprise, but they're basically all he's hitting. He's hitting them at a fantastically unrealistic rate, his OBP is hideous and his k to walk ratio is terrible; he's not demonstrating anything except an ability to hit a clearly unsustainable amount of home runs in limited playing time. I'm not saying the guy is hopeless because he's still young and his professional career has been so short, but it's clear he has a ton of work to do and it's tremendously unlikely that a guy whose offensive game is so wildly unbalanced right now is going to develop as needed jumping right into as much playing time as possible in the majors. Sure, this year is all but a bust for the Cubs, so if Fukudome is moved it's not the end of the world if he gets a lot of starts between now and the and of the year, but odds are the best thing for him next season would be for him to head back to the minors and start there to see if he can develop the other critical aspects of his offensive approach that are so lacking right now (and improving the defense wouldn't hurt, too). It's definitely fun to watch when he knocks one out, but he's got a long way to go before the Cubs can even think about making him a starting OF.

I love that you are suggesting the Cubs should send one of this season's most productive young players back to the minors next year. Nobody is arguing that his current performance is sustainable, but I don't see the logic in even considering a return trip to the minors. Colvin will be 25 years old going into next season, so at that point he either has the tools to be a solid major league player or he doesn't, and the answer to that question won't be found in Iowa.

[Sammy Sofa]

I love that you are suggesting the Cubs should send one of this season's most productive young players back to the minors next year. Nobody is arguing that his current performance is sustainable, but I don't see the logic in even considering a return trip to the minors. Colvin will be 25 years old going into next season, so at that point he either has the tools to be a solid major league player or he doesn't, and the answer to that question won't be found in Iowa.

 

Wait, what? Is 25 some magical cut off year that a player must either perform in the majors or bust? Of course not. I don't how you can't see the logic in sending him back to the minors next season so he can start full time if he continues to show that his offensive approach is so dramatically flawed. Yeah, it would be one thing if Fukudome is traded and Colvin basically becomes the starter and he rebounds and looks fantastic the rest of the year...but that's very unlikely. Sure, I could be wrong, and it would be great if I was and Colvin turned out to be a good starting OF, but that simply isn't very realistic at this point. Again, all he's really done is hit home runs at a preposterously disproportionate level in contrast to the very bad offensive numbers he's been racking up since his torrid start. I'd love to be proven wrong..but I highly doubt I will be. It would be very unusual if, based on what we've seen him demonstrate so far, he turned out to be a player that a "sink or swim" approached played out successfully for.

Edited July 5, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[dew1679666265]

Even though July is irrelevant, as you've stated..his slash line for the months is 278/278/611...an OPS of .889, not .429 as you stated.

 

Those numbers were off baseball-reference. What he did today may have bumped them up significantly without b-r counting them yet.

 

Look - he's not a perfect player, but he's:

 

*Young, cheap, and team-controlled

*A left handed source of power

*A decent defender who can play 3 outfield positions

*Someone who [expletive] tries on this team, which is a rare commodity on the 2010 Cubbies.

 

So surely you can understand how some are excited by the way he's performed this season. Is he gonna have a SLG of .568 at the end of the year? No. But i'd be willing to bet that he's gonna hit 20-25 HR and be exciting to watch.

 

I'm enjoying what he'd done this year and I think it's indicative of what kind of player he's likely to become. I don't see much of a sign that he'll be a very patient hitter at any point, but I think he's blossoming some really nice power.

 

That said, I don't see anything wrong with breaking down his numbers a bit. I like Colvin, but I actually would prefer to see him in the minors this season in order to continue developing under much less scrutiny. I hope that his huge success early on won't raise expectations to an unrealistic point.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even though July is irrelevant, as you've stated..his slash line for the months is 278/278/611...an OPS of .889, not .429 as you stated.

 

Those numbers were off baseball-reference. What he did today may have bumped them up significantly without b-r counting them yet.

 

Yeah, BR hasn't updated their stats to include today yet.

[dew1679666265]

I love that you are suggesting the Cubs should send one of this season's most productive young players back to the minors next year. Nobody is arguing that his current performance is sustainable, but I don't see the logic in even considering a return trip to the minors. Colvin will be 25 years old going into next season, so at that point he either has the tools to be a solid major league player or he doesn't, and the answer to that question won't be found in Iowa.

 

Now that he's in the majors I wouldn't be in favor of sending him back to the minors while he's productive (which he's dropped off significantly in June). However, I think leaving him in AA or AAA this year would have helped his development simply because he could have worked on his approach better there (and I believe Von Joshua focuses more on approach than mechanics, while Jaramillo focuses more on mechanics than approach) while facing lesser pitching.

 

Now, however, I'd keep him in the majors and work him into good matchups to try to keep the confidence up. In the meantime, Lou and Rudy can work with him on his approach and hope he can develop a little bit more patience. If his July numbers don't improve over what he did in June, I might consider moving him to Iowa in August to work there a little bit.

[dew1679666265]

Even though July is irrelevant, as you've stated..his slash line for the months is 278/278/611...an OPS of .889, not .429 as you stated.

 

Those numbers were off baseball-reference. What he did today may have bumped them up significantly without b-r counting them yet.

 

Yeah, BR hasn't updated their stats to include today yet.

 

Makes sense. They don't update immediately.

[A New Era]

So in other words (in terms for building the team for the future) Tyler Colvin is one of the few guys that we could actually sell high on?

[dew1679666265]

So in other words (in terms for building the team for the future) Tyler Colvin is one of the few guys that we could actually sell high on?

 

I don't know that he'd bring in enough to warrant trading cheap, potential production. If we could package him with someone, maybe so. However, it'd probably be better to keep him.

[Geech]

So in other words (in terms for building the team for the future) Tyler Colvin is one of the few guys that we could actually sell high on?

 

Definitely. Tyler Colvin will never "work on his approach" enough to be a reliably good hitter.

[dew1679666265]

So in other words (in terms for building the team for the future) Tyler Colvin is one of the few guys that we could actually sell high on?

 

Definitely. Tyler Colvin will never "work on his approach" enough to be a reliably good hitter.

 

The question is, will the return be good enough to overcome the value he's likely to provide to us? He could make a good 4th outfielder and maybe an average-above average starter in time. Could we get more than that in a trade?

[ScrubMD]

Why are some people so oddly obsessed with making sure nobody thinks Colvin is any good? It's very creepy. He's a 25 year old first round draft pick who is having his second consecutive good season. I don't see much hope that he'll be a super star or even an all-star caliber player, but it seems perfectly reasonable that he could provide .800+ OPS for very cheap for a few years. That could be a very valuable asset if we get a GM who can take advantage of the financial flexibility that creates.

 

Apparently the only evidence that he's terrible is that the month he played more, his OPS was only a little bit better than everyone else instead of a lot better. Can't people just be excited that we might have a cheap, serviceable player instead of being wierd?

[Geech]

The question is, will the return be good enough to overcome the value he's likely to provide to us? He could make a good 4th outfielder and maybe an average-above average starter in time. Could we get more than that in a trade?

 

I have no idea what the Cobs could get in return for Colvin, but they need to be shopping him around to find out. He's not the sort of player a team needs to jealously guard.

 

By the way, on a note completely unrelated to dew's post, whatever happened to Jeff Francoeur?

[muntjack]

There is just no chance the Cubs trade Colvin for anything short of a Felix Hernandez or Josh Johnson. The one guy hitting for power on the team who happens to be left handed and is a Wilken "told ya so" pick. Tyler Colvin is Jim Hendry's wet dream.

[muntjack]

Why are some people so oddly obsessed with making sure nobody thinks Colvin is any good? It's very creepy. He's a 25 year old first round draft pick who is having his second consecutive good season. I don't see much hope that he'll be a super star or even an all-star caliber player, but it seems perfectly reasonable that he could provide .800+ OPS for very cheap for a few years. That could be a very valuable asset if we get a GM who can take advantage of the financial flexibility that creates.

 

Apparently the only evidence that he's terrible is that the month he played more, his OPS was only a little bit better than everyone else instead of a lot better. Can't people just be excited that we might have a cheap, serviceable player instead of being wierd?

 

I think Corey Patterson is burned too deep in some fans' psyches.

[SweetZombieJesus]

 

Yeah, screw that Castro guy.

 

 

Hilarious, Castro has been mediocre (710 OPS and 3rd most errors in the NL) and if anything is the guy on the cubs who needs to go back to minors and work on things. His fielding needs work and his bat has been frankly bad since his kosuke-like debut.

 

But let's send down the guy who currently has the highest OPS on the team. Brilliant

[SweetZombieJesus]

Why are some people so oddly obsessed with making sure nobody thinks Colvin is any good? It's very creepy. He's a 25 year old first round draft pick who is having his second consecutive good season. I don't see much hope that he'll be a super star or even an all-star caliber player, but it seems perfectly reasonable that he could provide .800+ OPS for very cheap for a few years. That could be a very valuable asset if we get a GM who can take advantage of the financial flexibility that creates.

 

Apparently the only evidence that he's terrible is that the month he played more, his OPS was only a little bit better than everyone else instead of a lot better. Can't people just be excited that we might have a cheap, serviceable player instead of being wierd?

 

 

Pretty much if Colvin becomes a 500-550ish SLG lefthanded outfielder who is cheap I'll be pleased. Which for the most part when he's been healthy he has been.

 

Too many people seem to be still holding a grudge about not drafting the kid on the Blue Jays who is quickly looking like Jeremy Heremida or they are too focused on the one flaw in his game.

[rawaction]

I agree with ScrubMD. It seems like people try to make the argument whenever they can that Colvin is not good. If you are skeptical because of all of the failed Cubs hitting prospects, fine. But it's pretty ignorant of you if that's your reasoning.

 

Sure, Colvin's not an ideal hitter. He probably will never be based on his minor league numbers and numbers so far this year. But he looks to be a solid player similar to guys like Jorge Cantu, Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, and Jose Guillen (to name a few). Granted those are franchise centerpieces, but nobody is expecting that of Colvin. Add in that he appears to be faster than anyone on that list and has proven to be just as strong, if not stronger. There's no reason to believe that Colvin can't be on the upper end of that group's production.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Corey Patterson has no bearing on Tyler Colvins future. Neither do Jake Fox, Felix Pie, Brant Brown, Gary Scott, Jerome Walton, or Dwight Smith. I dont know what wil ultimately become of Tyler Colvin, but what he is at this point is a bright spot on a team that doesnt have a lot of them.