Dayn Perry: Cubs vs. Brewers

[Schwarber Fan]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7635010

 

pretty good analysis for the most part but I would question giving Braun the edge over Ramirez and he fails to mention on defense that Kendall and Braun are big time liabilities.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Henry Blanco's days of being a useful member of a major-league roster may be behind him

I don't often find myself agreeing with Dayn, but we're in agreement there.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7635010

 

pretty good analysis for the most part but I would question giving Braun the edge over Ramirez and he fails to mention on defense that Kendall and Braun are big time liabilities.

 

He addresses defense later on in the article. The lineup comparison was strictly hitting.

 

My only objection with lineup would be Fukudome/Hart being a push, but that's off the top of my head without looking at Hart's minor leauge #s. I seemed to remember him playing over his head relative to what was expected last year.

[UMFan83]

One of the comments there mentioned that the Cubs are due for injuries because they had none last season.

 

Come again?

 

Prior - Missed full season

Soriano - Missed about 10 games in the spring and 3 weeks in the fall with injuries. Was on DL in August.

Wood - Did not start season until Mid-August

Lee - Mostly healthy but missed 6 straight games in mid-July

Ramirez - Was on the DL in June

Dempster - Spend 2-3 weeks on the DL

Ward - Spent multiple trips on DL

Pagan - Missed August and September with coilitus

Blanco - Missed 3 months of the season with injury

Guzman - Season ended in June.

 

I'm not saying we were as injury plagued as years past, but we didn't have 0 injuries all season.

[JimSorgi]

I love this comment.

Aramis is due for a steroid related tendon tear.

 

Zambranos fat arm is due for injury since he got his zillions last year.

 

Derek Lee has lost interest and just counts his cash.

 

Disband the Flubs/Bulldoze Wrigley.

[Ender]

To give a Brewer fan perspective.

 

Braun and Aramis have to be a push at 3B, Aramis should be better than last year and Braun could easily regress.

 

There is no way to give C to the Cubs, it should be a push or incomplete. Soto is almost completely unproven and many a big hitting prospect has come out flat their first full season. Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, sure OPS doesn't like him but if he can post a .350 OBP he'll be valuable.

 

Hart should be an edge over Fukudome. If Fukudome matches Hideki's rookie year Hart will be better, there is no reason to expect Fukudome to come off of elbow surgery and adjust to a new league and put up Hart like numbers. Hart had a .913 OPS and a .951 OPS his last two years in the minors, this isn't some fluke that he did so well last year. He just didn't get the press with Weeks and Fielder on the same teams.

 

He double dipped with the pitching and defense. The Brewers had better peripherals than the Cubs last year for pitching, the defense is why they had a worse ERA. You can't count that as a double positive for the Cubs. The Brewers have also improved overall, a much deeper bullpen and Gallardo and Villanueva for a full season in the rotation will make a difference.

 

I think the two teams are pretty even right now, guys like Soto, Villanueva, Fukudome, Kendall, Gagne, Marshall etc are going to decide who takes first. The team who has the most 'risks' work out or stays the healthiest will win the thing... that or Yost will blow enough games to give it away again.

Edited January 4, 2008 by Ender

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One of the comments there mentioned that the Cubs are due for injuries because they had none last season.

 

Come again?

 

Prior - Missed full season

Soriano - Missed about 10 games in the spring and 3 weeks in the fall with injuries. Was on DL in August.

Wood - Did not start season until Mid-August

Lee - Mostly healthy but missed 6 straight games in mid-July

Ramirez - Was on the DL in June

Dempster - Spend 2-3 weeks on the DL

Ward - Spent multiple trips on DL

Pagan - Missed August and September with coilitus

Blanco - Missed 3 months of the season with injury

Guzman - Season ended in June.

 

I'm not saying we were as injury plagued as years past, but we didn't have 0 injuries all season.

 

It's very, very rare to have a rotation as injury free as ours was last year. Sure, part of that is by design, with Marquis, Hill, and Zambrano being consistent innings eaters, but part of it is luck.

[jersey cubs fan]

Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, sure OPS doesn't like him but if he can post a .350 OBP he'll be valuable.

 

Go ahead and keep thinking that. Kendall had one month where he was something other than completely worthless. He sucked the rest of the time. He's a 33 year old catcher with a ton of miles on him already, who will turn 34 next year. He's had some horrible injuries in his career and is a completely useless catcher behind the plate.

 

He sucks. It would be difficult for Soto to be as bad.

[CubinNY]

Yost will blow enough games to give it away again.

[SouthSideRyan]

Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, sure OPS doesn't like him but if he can post a .350 OBP he'll be valuable.

 

Go ahead and keep thinking that. Kendall had one month where he was something other than completely worthless. He sucked the rest of the time. He's a 33 year old catcher with a ton of miles on him already, who will turn 34 next year. He's had some horrible injuries in his career and is a completely useless catcher behind the plate.

 

He sucks. It would be difficult for Soto to be as bad.

 

This, prepare yourself for the worst Ender, and hope Yost has the intelligence(yow) to bench him when he sucks.

[BigbadB]

Every single with Kendall behind the dish is basically an automatic double waiting to happen. Sure glad he's someone else's problem.

[nilodnayr]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7635010

 

pretty good analysis for the most part but I would question giving Braun the edge over Ramirez and he fails to mention on defense that Kendall and Braun are big time liabilities.

 

He addresses defense later on in the article. The lineup comparison was strictly hitting.

 

My only objection with lineup would be Fukudome/Hart being a push, but that's off the top of my head without looking at Hart's minor leauge #s. I seemed to remember him playing over his head relative to what was expected last year.

 

I don't think push is that unfair of a rating

 

Hart was a huge breakout candidate last year, he just needed to get the chance, luckily for him he did. Heres shorthand what he did in the minors and his age/level

 

Rk-18 yr old, 698 OPS

Rk-19 yr old, 937 OPS

A+-20 yr old, 929 OPS

AA-21 yr old, 807 OPS

AAA (IL)-22 yr old, 827 OPS

AAA (PCL)-23 yr old, 913 OPS

AAA/Milw 24 yr old, 951/796 OPS

And an 892 OPS last year

 

Harts #s in his first full year in the majors is the optimistic projection for Fukudome.

[1908]

Harts #s in his first full year in the majors is the optimistic projection for Fukudome.

The optimistic (PETCOTA) projection for Fukudome is .289/.401/.504. Hart's numbers his first full year in the majors were .295/.353/.539. PETCOTA predicted .288/.349/.514 for Hart in 2007, and predicted .285/.354/.517 for him in 2008. A 50-point difference in OBP is significant.

[shnsajax]

To give a Brewer fan perspective.

 

There is no way to give C to the Cubs, it should be a push or incomplete. Soto is almost completely unproven and many a big hitting prospect has come out flat their first full season. Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, sure OPS doesn't like him but if he can post a .350 OBP he'll be valuable.

 

I don't think you have any clue to how much you are going to hate Jason Kendell this time next year. He will drive you f'in nuts. His 2nd half was highlight only because of a good August. Outside of that he sucked.

[nilodnayr]

Harts #s in his first full year in the majors is the optimistic projection for Fukudome.

The optimistic (PETCOTA) projection for Fukudome is .289/.401/.504. Hart's numbers his first full year in the majors were .295/.353/.539. PETCOTA predicted .288/.349/.514 for Hart in 2007, and predicted .285/.354/.517 for him in 2008. A 50-point difference in OBP is significant.

 

Hart had a 293 EQA vs. PECOTA predicting a 303 for Fukudome.

Hart had a 39.4 VORP vs. PECOTA predicting a 29.2 for Fukudome.

 

And also, I honestly think that PECOTAs predictions for Fukudome are more than optimistic, but thats just me and every one else in the world.

[1908]

Hart had a 293 EQA vs. PECOTA predicting a 303 for Fukudome.

Hart had a 39.4 VORP vs. PECOTA predicting a 29.2 for Fukudome.

PECOTA holds Fukudome’s playing time projection down because he missed about half of last season due to elbow surgery. If he’s healthy in spring training, that should no longer be a concern.

And also, I honestly think that PECOTAs predictions for Fukudome are more than optimistic, but thats just me and every one else in the world.

Hyperbolic dismissals aside, I honestly can't see how predicting a .353 OBP for Fukudome is being optimistic.

[Keener98]

Id say DeRosa and Weeks is basically a push also.

[XZero771679666304]

To give a Brewer fan perspective.

 

There is no way to give C to the Cubs, it should be a push or incomplete. Soto is almost completely unproven and many a big hitting prospect has come out flat their first full season. Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, sure OPS doesn't like him but if he can post a .350 OBP he'll be valuable.

 

I don't think you have any clue to how much you are going to hate Jason Kendell this time next year. He will drive you f'in nuts. His 2nd half was highlight only because of a good August. Outside of that he sucked.

 

He'll do nothing but hit popups and slow grounders, and every single the Brewers give up to a guy faster than Hector Villanueva will effectively be a double.

 

The man can look at pitches like a champ, though.

 

The Brewers actually downgraded from Johnny Estrada, and that's saying something.

 

Kendall was a guy who made his living being gritty, but now that his body is wearing down, he doesn't have much.

[Post Count Padder]

Dayn Perry's a tool.

[XZero771679666304]

Dayn Perry's a tool.

 

There is no argument about this point.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

pretty good analysis..the Cubs can narrow their disadvantage up the middle IMO if they get Roberts and play Derosa @ SS. What JJ Hardy will show up in 2008? 2007 pre ASB or post ASB.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Kendall's 2nd half was a lot like his 2006 so it isnt' safe to assume he's done as a hitter, .

oh, I would love to wager some $$$ on this....

[SouthSideRyan]

Id say DeRosa and Weeks is basically a push also.

 

Weeks was a stud in the 2nd half. Our offense is not going to be what makes us better than the Brewers.

[Keener98]

Id say DeRosa and Weeks is basically a push also.

 

Weeks was a stud in the 2nd half. Our offense is not going to be what makes us better than the Brewers.

 

 

Weeks was a stud in the 2nd half, after being a complete dud in the first half. So much so, he got sent down. So which Weeks will show up? DeRosa's numbers wont be that far from Weeks.

 

I agree our offense wont be what makes us better than the Brewers, but I dont think there will be as large as gap this year as there was last year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Id say DeRosa and Weeks is basically a push also.

 

Weeks was a stud in the 2nd half. Our offense is not going to be what makes us better than the Brewers.

 

 

Weeks was a stud in the 2nd half, after being a complete dud in the first half. So much so, he got sent down. So which Weeks will show up? DeRosa's numbers wont be that far from Weeks.

 

I agree our offense wont be what makes us better than the Brewers, but I dont think there will be as large as gap this year as there was last year.

 

Weeks had an injured wrist the first half I believe.