MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[jersey cubs fan]

Mark DeRosa is a decent 2b.

 

Who isn't an everyday 2B, and will be playing a fair amount of time at other positions, regardless of whether Roberts is here.

 

The upgrade is simply not a straight up comparison of Roberts to DeRosa, even though Roberts has the clear advantage there. The upgrade is Roberts + DeRosa being significantly better than DeRosa + whomever. We aren't talking about trading one for the other.

[David]

To me, significant = substantive. A substantial improvement. There is substance to the improvement. Non-negligible. It doesn't mean huge or massive or major or anything like that. But yea, this is an argument of semantics.

[CubColtPacer]

BTW, a new Cubs source on the Orioles board (no idea on his reliability) says that his source says the deal is close. Acccording to him, the 3rd player will either be Marshall or Fuld, although his source believes it will be Marshall.

 

Boy, I know it's not likely (that his source is correct, and even if he is correct that the unlikely even that it's Fuld happens) but if the deal is Cedeno/Gallagher/Fuld I'd be very, very happy with it.

[BigbadB]

Geez man, ease up. Was he supposed to know about this girl? How does that have anything to do with anything? And how is he any more guilty of pissing contests than you, or anybody else? He's laid out an argument that I don't completely agree with, but that I believe if fairly constructed and defended. That's exactly what this site is about at its best.

 

No, what was happening is every word in my posts is being dissected as if I'm some sort of scientific lab experiment and I'm tired of it.

 

I really haven't found it necessary to spend 3 pages in this thread defending my stance that Roberts is a marginal upgrade to DeRosa. I'd also point out that I have been a defender of this deal since day 1. Not only have I said Roberts is a marginal upgrade over DeRosa, but that DeRosa's use as a bench player, pinch hitter and SS are all have the potential to be significant upgrades, making the addition of Roberts to this team SIGNIFICANT.

[moorecg]

Glad to see the content and analysis in this thread is continuing to improve all the time...

 

Man do we need something to happen just so people don't spend all day looking for things to get in stupid arguments over.

[Butterscup1679666578]

BTW, a new Cubs source on the Orioles board (no idea on his reliability) says that his source says the deal is close. Acccording to him, the 3rd player will either be Marshall or Fuld, although his source believes it will be Marshall.

 

Boy, I know it's not likely (that his source is correct, and even if he is correct that the unlikely even that it's Fuld happens) but if the deal is Cedeno/Gallagher/Fuld I'd be very, very happy with it.

 

This deal has been "close" according to "sources" for awhile now. I'm at the point where I don't think the deal is going to happen unless I finally see a report from a major source.

[Backtobanks]

As far as I can tell, the bottom line is that most of us would like Roberts as our 2B because he would be an upgrade (marginal, modest, or significant) over DeRosa. The problem gets to be what package should you send to the Orioles to justify this marginal, modest, or significant upgrade.

[Rob]

 

Speed kills, and it also bothers opposing pitchers, and could cause them to make mistakes. I don't understand how anyone can justify that Roberts is not a good leadoff hitter and wont help this team. The fact that anyone says this is just insane.

 

 

Actually, studies have proven that the hitters are actually the ones who suffer when a "disruptive" runner is on the basepaths. I'm not a psychologist, so I'm not going to pretend I can tell you why, but the fact of the matter is that stolen bases mean almost nothing to teams now.

 

Roberts, stealing at that clip, might add five runs a season on offense. And if you believe the studies, the batter behind him might give that right back up.

 

Nobody is saying that Roberts isn't a good hitter, or that he wont help this team. He is a darn good hitter (no matter where he hits in this lineup), and he certainly would help the team. The problem is that the resources needed to acquire him can be better utilized elsewhere.

[Keener98]

Glad to see the content and analysis in this thread is continuing to improve all the time...

 

Man do we need something to happen just so people don't spend all day looking for things to get in stupid arguments over.

 

Its called a message board, discussions happen.

[ctcf]

Is this already up to 80? It was around 70 a day ago. What the heck are you people even talking about?!

[mdwilla]

We need to send out the bat signal and see what Bruce has heard about the Robert talks and if the cubs have any interest in Burnett.

[bhogg]

i thought fuld was untouchable?

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah, I'm getting tired of hearing the deal is "close". It's apparantly been "close" for a month.

[UMFan83]

More rampant speculation from the O's board. The same guy thats proclaiming the deal is close is now saying:

 

You guys, this deal is pretty much FINAL

 

They are probably all laughing at us

 

Edit: Belkast is saying:

 

Plenty of info soon. AM is in charge!

Edited January 8, 2008 by UMFan83

[C.C.]

I wonder how many times "the deal is close" has been posted in this thread?

[Bruno7481]

These "insiders" are hilarious. If you truly have inside info you really look like an attention whore plastering it all over the internet.

 

I'm not buying this story. Not saying there isn't truth to the talks, just doubting some of the "insiders".

[RammyFanny]

I wonder how many times "the deal is close" has been posted in this thread?

 

Alot over a two day period which was then halted because of the offices shutting down. Other than that, it's just been serious talks. I really don't know what else you want these guys to do, doesn't the whole Tejada info mean anything to their credibility?

[inari]

More rampant speculation from the O's board. The same guy thats proclaiming the deal is close is now saying:

 

You guys, this deal is pretty much FINAL

 

They are probably all laughing at us

 

Edit: Belkast is saying:

 

Plenty of info soon. AM is in charge!

 

I actually believe it this time.

[CubColtPacer]

I wonder how many times "the deal is close" has been posted in this thread?

 

Alot over a two day period which was then halted because of the offices shutting down. Other than that, it's just been serious talks. I really don't know what else you want these guys to do, doesn't the whole Tejada info mean anything to their credibility?

 

Exactly. This is really only time number 2 (maybe 3 if you count during the winter meetings, but there really was nothing to say that it was exceptionally close). It just happens that there were about 2 weeks in between the times that people really thought it would happen, and so it seems like forever.

[David]

I think there is zero doubt that the insiders are legit. Was it Peace or Belkast that 100% called the Tejada trade and the players involved hours before any media outlet picked it up?

 

That's not luck. He didn't just guess and then it all happened to be 100% true on the same day he said it. Obviously, there are real ties there. They're not always going to be right, but I think it's fair to say that if we hear one of these "reports," there is something to them.

[Mephistopheles]

Okay using my system using this lineup (most of the time)

 

Name, POS - PT%

1. Soriano, LF - 90%

2. Fukudome, RF - 90%

3. Lee, 1B - 90%

4. Ramirez, 3B - 80%

5. DeRosa, 2B - 75%

6. Soto, C - 66%

7. Theriot, SS - 75%

8. Pie, CF - 90%

 

predicts 811.5 Runs Scored which shows:

 

RA - Wins

700 - 91.8

720 - 89.7

750 - 86.8

 

With the trade, this:

 

1. Roberts 90%

2. Fukudome 90%

3. Lee 90%

4. Ramirez 80%

5. Soriano 90%

6. Soto 66%

7. Theriot 75%

8. Pie 90%

 

predicts 825.2 runs:

 

700 93.0

720 90.9

750 88.0

 

so a 13.8 run increase and about 1.2 win increase.

 

Not significant by any stretch of the imagination. Using Marshall as an SP and leaving Dempster in the pen ought to move our projected runs allowed from ~750 to ~725. It's a better scenario.

 

Vote no on Roberts.

[CubColtPacer]

Okay using my system using this lineup (most of the time)

 

Name, POS - PT%

1. Soriano, LF - 90%

2. Fukudome, RF - 90%

3. Lee, 1B - 90%

4. Ramirez, 3B - 80%

5. DeRosa, 2B - 75%

6. Soto, C - 66%

7. Theriot, SS - 75%

8. Pie, CF - 90%

 

predicts 811.5 Runs Scored which shows:

 

RA - Wins

700 - 91.8

720 - 89.7

750 - 86.8

 

With the trade, this:

 

1. Roberts 90%

2. Fukudome 90%

3. Lee 90%

4. Ramirez 80%

5. Soriano 90%

6. Soto 66%

7. Theriot 75%

8. Pie 90%

 

predicts 825.2 runs:

 

700 93.0

720 90.9

750 88.0

 

so a 13.8 run increase and about 1.2 win increase.

 

Not significant by any stretch of the imagination. Using Marshall as an SP and leaving Dempster in the pen ought to move our projected runs allowed from ~750 to ~725. It's a better scenario.

 

Vote no on Roberts.

 

How many runs does taking Fontenot's 250-300 AB's last year away from him and giving them to DeRosa do? And what if they don't plan to use Marshall as a SP anyway?

[David]

A couple of things...

 

What stat or stats are your run scored projections based on?

 

You also can't really assume that this trade would mean having Dempster as the 5th starter. It's one among many possibilities. Even as it stands, it might be that way, or who knows, Lou might go with Kevin Hart or someone else. More importantly, there's still the realistic possibility that they go after another starter, i.e. Burnett. Roberts allows them to include DeRosa in a trade to the Blue Jays.

 

What would a trade for Burnett do for your RA and then overall win projections?

 

EDIT - This was directed at Meph's post

Edited January 8, 2008 by David

[samhainn77]

According to my sources, there were 9 new pages in this thread when I got home from work tonight and no news! :(

 

BTW Meph, any chance you could run the same simulation swapping Derosa for Theriot in the second lineup?

[hardcorecubfan]

Geez man, ease up. Was he supposed to know about this girl? How does that have anything to do with anything? And how is he any more guilty of pissing contests than you, or anybody else? He's laid out an argument that I don't completely agree with, but that I believe if fairly constructed and defended. That's exactly what this site is about at its best.

 

No, what was happening is every word in my posts is being dissected as if I'm some sort of scientific lab experiment and I'm tired of it.

 

I really haven't found it necessary to spend 3 pages in this thread defending my stance that Roberts is a marginal upgrade to DeRosa. I'd also point out that I have been a defender of this deal since day 1. Not only have I said Roberts is a marginal upgrade over DeRosa, but that DeRosa's use as a bench player, pinch hitter and SS are all have the potential to be significant upgrades, making the addition of Roberts to this team SIGNIFICANT.

 

Agree 100 percent. the key to the cubs success is Derosa's versatility and Robert's affords the opportunity