MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[David]

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think "I'm bored" is a good reason to do a trade. And I wonder about the people who say they'd be "very, very happy" to get Roberts at this price, what price they would be unhappy with? Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, and $20 million in cash? It's clear looking at Swisher and Renteria were traded for the Cubs are getting ripped off.

 

But since they haven't won the World Series in a long time, it's okay to get ripped off, right? Like the Cleveland Indians. They haven't won a World Series in a long time, and they let themselves get ripped off all of the time, right? Oh wait...

 

With Marshall, Cedeno, and Gallagher gone, what is there left to trade for A. J. Burnett even? I don't even see why A. J. Burnett is contingent on Roberts. Even if he's injured he's going to opt out because of the crazy market, doesn't he have 3/33 left on his contract or something? If he's injured he could be a Type B free agent then.

 

 

You do realize, BTW, that Roberts is just as good of an offensive player as Swisher, right? Factor in things like age and contract status, and Swisher looks really good. Factor in position, though, and Roberts looks a bit better. Taking the age and contract into account (and the fact that Swisher is about to enter his prime years while Roberts is toward the middle-end of his), I'd rather the Cubs pick up Swisher (if they were willing to find a position for him by either playing him in CF or moving Soriano over), but it isn't the landslide you seem to seem to suggest it is in this thread and the Swisher trade thread.

 

Look at their WARPs and/or their EQA's... Consider that Roberts has (at age 27) put up better EQAs as a 2B than Swisher, a LFer, has in his best season (age 26).. In his most recent season, Roberts EQA was right in the neighborhood of Swisher's age 26 season. Also, as far as I know, EQA doesn't normalize for position, but I might be wrong on that.

 

Maybe I'm mis-characterizing your position, though. I don't know. Again, I know and understand that the age and contract situations make Swisher a more attractive and more valuable piece. IMO, it's not really at the point where you can say the proposed Cubs trade is a rip off and the Sox deal is good, though. In fact, IMO, it's only even close to being a ripoff because of the Cubs SP situation. If they addressed that, or if, hypothetically, the Cubs bottom end of rotation were strong, say in 2004 shape, I wouldn't value Marshall and Gallagher nearly as highly (I'll miss Cedeno, because I'd rather see him play next year than Theriot, but I won't be heartbroken if he's gone). Then again, it seems like I'm starting another argument centered on subjective/arbitrary terms.

 

FWIW, the Orioles fans, by and large, are unhappy with the deal too and feel like they're being ripped off. The only ones who seem happy about it are the ones who just want to see a move made to prove that MacPhail has autonomy from Angelos.

 

Also, to address the point about the Roberts trade and the Burnett trades, it seems like DeRosa would be shipped off in any trade with the Blue Jays. At least, that's what some have said on that board. Take that for what it's worth, which I know isn't a lot to you and many others. For me, it's just fun to think about/talk about what they might do. We have no say and really no way of knowing what is really going to happen or what Hendry hopes to do. I appreciate that there are a few guys over there who may or may not be able to give us some message board fodder, which is all it is.

 

Now I feel like I just ranted... Hope most of it makes sense in the morning.

[David]

A couple of things...

 

What stat or stats are your run scored projections based on?

 

You also can't really assume that this trade would mean having Dempster as the 5th starter. It's one among many possibilities. Even as it stands, it might be that way, or who knows, Lou might go with Kevin Hart or someone else. More importantly, there's still the realistic possibility that they go after another starter, i.e. Burnett. Roberts allows them to include DeRosa in a trade to the Blue Jays.

 

What would a trade for Burnett do for your RA and then overall win projections?

 

EDIT - This was directed at Meph's post

 

EqA, OBP, and a few other things. It doesn't matter if its dempster or not, hart sucks. who ever we put there would be at least 20 runs worse than marshall. i didnt project RA, just RS. A trade for Burnett would probably keep our pitching production near its 2007 level (~700 RA). A trade for Bedard w/o Hill would do about the same. Theyre interchangeable. Id prefer Burnett myself.

 

Can't argue with any of that. What I will say is that if DeRosa is subsequently flipped in a deal for a SP that can at least make up the difference in projected RA between Marshall and Dempster, it's (obviously) a series of deals that is worth making.

 

I'm not saying anything groundbreaking there, but we really don't have any way of knowing how realistic that is. Hell, maybe Hendry will keep DeRosa and still get a SP that will accomplish that. Then you have the upgrade of DeRosa taking the bench AB's from Fontenot and the like and you get good enough pitching to allow 700 runs.

[JohnF]

Looks like we got another update from the orioles hangout

 

Bedard to Seattle is close but we want a 4th player in return. Paperwork for Roberts to Cubs should be filed today. When he left work yesterday it was Gallagher, Marshall and Cedeno.

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57253&page=7

[Guest]

Ugh.

[CuseCubFan69]

Ugh.

 

Is this thing actually happening? If it does, who is going to be the backup SS? Does it kill the depth at the starter position?

[circlecitycub]

Ugh.

 

Is this thing actually happening? If it does, who is going to be the backup SS? Does it kill the depth at the starter position?

 

Wouldn't Theriot become the backup?

[CubinNY]

Ugh.

 

Is this thing actually happening? If it does, who is going to be the backup SS? Does it kill the depth at the starter position?

 

Wouldn't Theriot become the backup?

No.

 

I agree with the ugh sentiment.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Ugh.

 

Is this thing actually happening? If it does, who is going to be the backup SS? Does it kill the depth at the starter position?

 

Wouldn't Theriot become the backup?

No.

 

I agree with the ugh sentiment.

as do I

[circlecitycub]

Ugh.

 

Is this thing actually happening? If it does, who is going to be the backup SS? Does it kill the depth at the starter position?

 

Wouldn't Theriot become the backup?

No.

 

I agree with the ugh sentiment.

 

Why not? Who is IYO?

[Guest]

Why not? Who is IYO?

To answer your question with a question:

 

If Theriot is the backup SS, who is the starter?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Why not? Who is IYO?

Theriot is by all indications the starter, therefore not the backup. DeRosa probably fits into that role despite the fact that it should be the other way around.

[UMFan83]

That Peace insider just said:

 

-Roberts rumors are still he will be dealt to the Cubs sometime later in the week or next week. But coming back from the Cubs would be Gallagher,Cedeno, and most likely Marshall.

[circlecitycub]

Why not? Who is IYO?

To answer your question with a question:

 

If Theriot is the backup SS, who is the starter?

 

I assumed they were going to try out Roberts and/or DeRosa there.

 

Oh well, I'm not going to cry over this deal. I don't like the back end of the rotation though. Hopefully they can make a deal for another starter.

[YearofDaCubs]

Why not? Who is IYO?

To answer your question with a question:

 

If Theriot is the backup SS, who is the starter?

 

I assumed they were going to try out Roberts and/or DeRosa there.

 

Oh well, I'm not going to cry over this deal. I don't like the back end of the rotation though. Hopefully they can make a deal for another starter.

That's the only way this trade is acceptable. I'm going to puke if both Marquis and Demp are going to be in the rotation. especially with no depth.

[brinoch]

I think the O's management is messing with those O's leakers to mess with our heads. Dizzying, I know. Personally, I want no part of Marshall/Gallagher/Cedeno for Roberts.

[C.C.]

That Peace insider just said:

 

-Roberts rumors are still he will be dealt to the Cubs sometime later in the week or next week. But coming back from the Cubs would be Gallagher,Cedeno, and most likely Marshall.

 

Or the week after that...

[ctcf]

I predict this thread becomes unintentionally hilarious if the trade actually happens.

[Ryno is God 23]

and it goes on and on and on and on. :D

[umpunk]

So, what are everybody's thoughts on potentially acquiring Roberts? I'm wondering what so of "upgrade" he is from Derosa - big, marginal, small?

[Keener98]

So, what are everybody's thoughts on potentially acquiring Roberts? I'm wondering what so of "upgrade" he is from Derosa - big, marginal, small?

 

 

Are your serious? This thread is like 80+ pages, you prob could find that answer in it lol.

[ctcf]

So, what are everybody's thoughts on potentially acquiring Roberts? I'm wondering what so of "upgrade" he is from Derosa - big, marginal, small?

 

This is a joke... right?

[Rob]

So, what are everybody's thoughts on potentially acquiring Roberts? I'm wondering what so of "upgrade" he is from Derosa - big, marginal, small?

 

About 2.5 wins... and then perhaps another win based on DeRo getting all the extra reserve at-bats instead of guys like Fontenot.

[CubColtPacer]

BTW, here is a shocker:

 

Roberts deal needs to be approved by PA first.

[TheDude]

After 82 pages, there is no 'new' position to this argument that can be revealed. Personally, in a vacuum where only player value is considered, I think it's a good deal. But we're not in a vacuum and the deal doesn't replace Theriot at SS. Still, it does represent an upgrade at everyday 2B in the most critical need OBP, allows for the possibility of a Roberts-Lee-Fukudome-Ramirez-Soriano-Soto 1-6 in the order, and makes DeRosa the best super-utility player in the NL.

 

So I neither have an 'Ugh' reaction nor a jubilant response. If Roberts were a SS, I definitely would be excited though.

Edited January 8, 2008 by TheDude

[David]

Definitely a joke.