MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[Bull]

so that whole DeRosa having surgery thing kinda effects my views on Roberts, maybe.

 

I think that's relevant to this thread.

[wrigley23]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Well, after 233 pages, 5801 posts and 159916 views, it's time I chimed in on this thread.

 

If we get Roberts without giving up too much, great.

 

If we don't get Roberts, I still think the Cubs are going to be all right.

 

That's all.

 

Great insight, huh?

 

P.S. As I was typing this, I refreshed the Transactions page in another window. The number of views went up by ten. And I'm a fairly accomplished typer.

[Derwood]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

 

i will simply say that i think you're overvaluing steals. Roberts getting a walk plus a steal = Soriano getting a double, only there is more risk in stealing the base. you also can't look at steals completely objectively between the two because it's possible that the O's manager called for them more than Lou. perhaps if Soriano was leading off for the O's he'd have 50 steals last year. you just can't make that comparison

[CuseCubFan69]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

 

i will simply say that i think you're overvaluing steals. Roberts getting a walk plus a steal = Soriano getting a double, only there is more risk in stealing the base. you also can't look at steals completely objectively between the two because it's possible that the O's manager called for them more than Lou. perhaps if Soriano was leading off for the O's he'd have 50 steals last year. you just can't make that comparison

 

I'd think that with Roberts speed he would score from first on a Sori double in most cases.

[Soul]

so that whole DeRosa having surgery thing kinda effects my views on Roberts, maybe.

 

I think that's relevant to this thread.

 

I agree. I might feel more comfortable giving up a player than a week ago. Especially since it could very well mean that we don't have to see Fontenot in the starting lineup for 2 or 3 months to open the season. (I'm speculating that the amount of time DeRo would be out will increase from current estimates because, well, it usually does).

[fromthestretch]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

 

I used the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

 

If you take the Cubs splits from 2007 for the 2nd through 9th spots in the order and plug in Soriano's numbers in the leadoff spot, you get 4.712 runs per game, which equals 763 runs over the course of a 162 game season. It's not that far off considering the Cubs scored 752 last year. If you take the same splits for the Cubs but substitute Roberts' numbers for Soriano's, you also get 4.712 runs per game. Probably a bit of a crude method, but to me it shows that a .377/.432 line out of the leadoff spot is not going to yield a significant number of runs over what a .337/.560 line would, even if you factor speed into the equation.

[David]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

 

i will simply say that i think you're overvaluing steals. Roberts getting a walk plus a steal = Soriano getting a double, only there is more risk in stealing the base. you also can't look at steals completely objectively between the two because it's possible that the O's manager called for them more than Lou. perhaps if Soriano was leading off for the O's he'd have 50 steals last year. you just can't make that comparison

 

I'd think that with Roberts speed he would score from first on a Sori double in most cases.

 

That is likely true. Seems completely random/irrelevant, though... :-k

[CuseCubFan69]

I would surmise that the reason soriano scored more runs that roberts is because he was in a superior lineup. The o's lineup was made up of an overaging group. Even Tejada has fallen off over time. The only real way to know would be to see roberts in the top spot w/ this lineup behind him...including soriano. It is very clear that Soriano's running ability has been compromised based on last year's numbers & this year's accounts of his health in camp. Roberts is in the prime of his career as shown last year w/ 51 steals & a high .300's obp. I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible, the soriano's leg comes around & that derosa's health issues come to resolution. We will need all the improving we can get in order to break the 100-yr cycle.

 

i will simply say that i think you're overvaluing steals. Roberts getting a walk plus a steal = Soriano getting a double, only there is more risk in stealing the base. you also can't look at steals completely objectively between the two because it's possible that the O's manager called for them more than Lou. perhaps if Soriano was leading off for the O's he'd have 50 steals last year. you just can't make that comparison

 

I'd think that with Roberts speed he would score from first on a Sori double in most cases.

 

That is likely true. Seems completely random/irrelevant, though... :-k

 

Well, the mention of speed and Sori hitting a double was mentioned, was it not? Why steal unless a situation presented itself? When posters mention Roberts and steals it's not always the steal but the speed to take an extra base when others can not.

[David]

I think he was just making the point that wrigley is focusing too much on Roberts' ability to steal while overlooking the fact that Soriano's power will have him in scoring position too. Soriano hitting a double gets him on 2nd just like a hit or walk and a steal from Roberts does, and with less risk.

 

As for speed, just about anyone short of maybe Geovany Soto should be scoring from first on a double pretty often.

[UBlink]

I never said anything about hitting soriano 6th. In fact, i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez.

 

So we're going to start with a switch hitter, a lefty, and then 5 righties in a row? Or do you want to put Felix in the 6 spot?

[CuseCubFan69]

I think he was just making the point that wrigley is focusing too much on Roberts' ability to steal while overlooking the fact that Soriano's power will have him in scoring position too. Soriano hitting a double gets him on 2nd just like a hit or walk and a steal from Roberts does, and with less risk.

 

As for speed, just about anyone short of maybe Geovany Soto should be scoring from first on a double pretty often.

 

The cubs have ARam, Soto and Ward as really slow guys but I agree that the rest should be able to score on a double in most cases.

 

And...holy heck, I'd swear that I saw somebody mention a Sori double! :oops:

[BigbadB]

i would put fuko second & soriano third w/ followed by lee & ramirez. I think we'd have as good a 1-5 as any in baseball & score many runs for our 3-5 pitchers that will need every run we can muster. Here's to hoping we get roberts for as little as possible.

 

This isn't about what YOU would do. It's about what Lou will do. He may or he may not put Roberts in the lead off spot, but if he does, then you can basically pencil in Theriot to hit 2nd. One of the least likely scenarios I would think Lou would construct his line up would be Roberts, Fukudome, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Pie, Theriot.

 

However much Cubs management has said they want a true lead off hitter (which I really haven't heard all that much), they have been much more pronounced in stating they want the left bats to break up the righty bats.

 

As far as your "dream" line up, I'd be all for it because it still puts all the best bats in the line up at the top end of the order, but I have to believe.....

 

Roberts, Fukudome, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez

 

is less likely to happen than

 

Soriano, Roberts, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome

[E.J.]

I hate to interrupt the arguing, but there is an actual tidbit of news:

 

Suntimes

Don't expect Mark DeRosa's medical issues to have any bearing on the Cubs' pursuit of Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts or any other player.

 

''What's happened to DeRosa will have no effect on how we go about our business,'' general manager Jim Hendry said Monday as DeRosa traveled to Chicago for an appointment today with a cardiologist after an episode of heart arrhythmia over the weekend.

 

''I feel bad that he had a scare, but he's not worried about his health. Our team physician's not worried about him. We're going to do everything possible to make sure that he's thoroughly checked out for the good of his life down the road, but it will have no effect on his ability to get ready or play 150 games.''

 

It's not like the Cubs can do much about getting Roberts at this point anyway. The holdup in a would-be trade is on the Orioles' side, and no movement is expected on that front until at least a week or so of exhibition games are played, with the O's expected to have scouts taking another look at young Cubs players.

 

Some in the organization think the Cubs won't get Roberts at all after watching the last three months of on-again, off-again talks play out. The Orioles want pitcher Sean Gallagher, infielder Ronny Cedeno and two more top young players for Roberts.

 

If the Cubs add anyone before the season starts, it's more likely they'll land an established outfielder who can back up all three spots, such as Boston's Coco Crisp or (less likely) Texas' Marlon Byrd.

[Derwood]

I hate to interrupt the arguing, but there is an actual tidbit of news:

 

Suntimes

Don't expect Mark DeRosa's medical issues to have any bearing on the Cubs' pursuit of Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts or any other player.

 

''What's happened to DeRosa will have no effect on how we go about our business,'' general manager Jim Hendry said Monday as DeRosa traveled to Chicago for an appointment today with a cardiologist after an episode of heart arrhythmia over the weekend.

 

''I feel bad that he had a scare, but he's not worried about his health. Our team physician's not worried about him. We're going to do everything possible to make sure that he's thoroughly checked out for the good of his life down the road, but it will have no effect on his ability to get ready or play 150 games.''

 

It's not like the Cubs can do much about getting Roberts at this point anyway. The holdup in a would-be trade is on the Orioles' side, and no movement is expected on that front until at least a week or so of exhibition games are played, with the O's expected to have scouts taking another look at young Cubs players.

 

Some in the organization think the Cubs won't get Roberts at all after watching the last three months of on-again, off-again talks play out. The Orioles want pitcher Sean Gallagher, infielder Ronny Cedeno and two more top young players for Roberts.

 

If the Cubs add anyone before the season starts, it's more likely they'll land an established outfielder who can back up all three spots, such as Boston's Coco Crisp or (less likely) Texas' Marlon Byrd.

 

of course hendry will say that. were you expecting him to say "OMG, we're SO desperate for a 2B now!"

[17 Seconds]

i find it lame that the only reason you can come up with to hit soriano ahead of a real leadoff hitter such as roberts is because "he feels better" there. I've never heard a bigger bunch of crap.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS ON.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.

 

Seriously, the mod already warned you a bout thise "I refuse to acknowledge others points" nonsense. It has nothing to do with babying Soriano or making him feel comfortable, it about making him perform best. Like badnews said, an .890 ops hitter is always better than an .810 ops hitter, no matter where in the lineup they're hitting. This overvaluing of the leadoff spot is ridiculous and has to stop.

[apete6]

i find it lame that the only reason you can come up with to hit soriano ahead of a real leadoff hitter such as roberts is because "he feels better" there. I've never heard a bigger bunch of crap.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS ON.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.

 

Seriously, the mod already warned you a bout thise "I refuse to acknowledge others points" nonsense. It has nothing to do with babying Soriano or making him feel comfortable, it about making him perform best. Like badnews said, an .890 ops hitter is always better than an .810 ops hitter, no matter where in the lineup they're hitting. This overvaluing of the leadoff spot is ridiculous and has to stop.

 

Alfonso Soriano should have never been signed by the Cubs. It was a makeup signing for not making an honest run at Beltran or Vlad years earlier. Might as well make the best of his signing, but the points you made in all caps underline why he is such an overrated POS. $18 million for a guy who can't handle the pressure of batting with runners on base? Great decision, Jim.

[17 Seconds]

i find it lame that the only reason you can come up with to hit soriano ahead of a real leadoff hitter such as roberts is because "he feels better" there. I've never heard a bigger bunch of crap.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS ON.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.

 

Seriously, the mod already warned you a bout thise "I refuse to acknowledge others points" nonsense. It has nothing to do with babying Soriano or making him feel comfortable, it about making him perform best. Like badnews said, an .890 ops hitter is always better than an .810 ops hitter, no matter where in the lineup they're hitting. This overvaluing of the leadoff spot is ridiculous and has to stop.

 

Alfonso Soriano should have never been signed by the Cubs. It was a makeup signing for not making an honest run at Beltran or Vlad years earlier. Might as well make the best of his signing, but the points you made in all caps underline why he is such an overrated POS. $18 million for a guy who can't handle the pressure of batting with runners on base? Great decision, Jim.

 

I agree with everything you said. I think it was a terrible contract. That doesn't mean we have to make it worse by forcing him into being something he's not and watch his performance suffer.

[Derwood]

i find it lame that the only reason you can come up with to hit soriano ahead of a real leadoff hitter such as roberts is because "he feels better" there. I've never heard a bigger bunch of crap.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LINEUP.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS ON.

 

ALFONSO SORIANO DOES NOT HIT WELL WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.

 

Seriously, the mod already warned you a bout thise "I refuse to acknowledge others points" nonsense. It has nothing to do with babying Soriano or making him feel comfortable, it about making him perform best. Like badnews said, an .890 ops hitter is always better than an .810 ops hitter, no matter where in the lineup they're hitting. This overvaluing of the leadoff spot is ridiculous and has to stop.

 

Alfonso Soriano should have never been signed by the Cubs. It was a makeup signing for not making an honest run at Beltran or Vlad years earlier. Might as well make the best of his signing, but the points you made in all caps underline why he is such an overrated POS. $18 million for a guy who can't handle the pressure of batting with runners on base? Great decision, Jim.

 

okay. but he WAS signed, so we're discussing how to best use him

[bhogg]

so Soriano is not clutch?

[inari]

If not for Mariano Rivera blowing a lead, Soriano would've hit a World Series winning home run in 2001.

[Derwood]

so Soriano is not clutch?

 

you decide:

 

CAREER

 

w/ bases empty: .868 OPS

w/ men on: .803 OPS

w/ RISP: .770 OPS

w/ 2 outs, RISP: .745 OPS

1st inning: .922 OPS

9th inning: .748 OPS

[anabiono]

so Soriano is not clutch?

 

you decide:

 

CAREER

 

w/ bases empty: .868 OPS

w/ men on: .803 OPS

w/ RISP: .770 OPS

w/ 2 outs, RISP: .745 OPS

1st inning: .922 OPS

9th inning: .748 OPS

 

to top it all off...now he has a bum thigh

 

:rotfl:

[wrigley23]

dexter...you really need to dial it down a notch. I simply don't agree w/ your assessments but the all caps & heavy handedness are really unnecessary. I don't see where OPS is all that important in the lead off spot. The goal is to get on base period & then have 2-5 knock you in. If soriano leads off w/ a double then that extra base hit is better for the team if done w/ someone on. The hang up here is the argument that soriano cannot hit w/ people on. Again, he has been a leadoff hitter for several years now so I don't buy into that argument. Beyond that, it is not what is best for him but what is best for the team. Roberts or another stronger OBP guy hitting in front of soriano makes much more sense than the reverse. This is the model used w/ nearly every other team in major league baseball. Lou is on record saying if a deal is made that soriano would move down.

[anabiono]

dexter...you really need to dial it down a notch. I simply don't agree w/ your assessments but the all caps & heavy handedness are really unnecessary. I don't see where OPS is all that important in the lead off spot. The goal is to get on base period & then have 2-5 knock you in. If soriano leads off w/ a double then that extra base hit is better for the team if done w/ someone on. The hang up here is the argument that soriano cannot hit w/ people on. Again, he has been a leadoff hitter for several years now so I don't buy into that argument. Beyond that, it is not what is best for him but what is best for the team. Roberts or another stronger OBP guy hitting in front of soriano makes much more sense than the reverse. This is the model used w/ nearly every other team in major league baseball. Lou is on record saying if a deal is made that soriano would move down.

 

as much as you guys hate on ole Mr. WG23...i am inclined to agree with his assessment on moving soriano down...

 

p.s. one time

 

:grin: