Dempster

[The Voice of Reason]

Ryan has three blown saves this year, that's just one more than Jon Papelbon

 

Papelbon - 1.61 ERA, 75 K/15 walks, .77 WHIP

Dempster - 3.88 ERA, 48K/27 walks, 1.28 WHIP.

 

But hey, at least his performance in situations arbitrarily defined by a meaningless statistic is only marginally worse than Papelbons!

 

(Also, let's not mention the two tie games he entered and singlehandedly let get out of reach)

 

Excellent points made comparing Dempster to a real closer.

 

Saves are a meaningless statistic

 

For the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined Dempster's ERA is close to 4.50. That's horrible for a so-called closer.

 

So you'll stack up his pretty bad 2006 season with his decent 2007 season, but totally leave out his excellent 2005 season? How does that work?

 

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

[jersey cubs fan]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

[The Voice of Reason]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

His cumulative ERA over the last four years is over 4 which is not good.

[jersey cubs fan]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

His cumulative ERA over the last four years is over 4 which is not good.

 

No, it's not good, but it's also not nearly as meaningful as the individual seasons, in which 3 of 4 were good. Just like Jacque Jones and his last 4 seasons of 90, 99, 107 and 78 OPS+ aren't any good, even if the 2006 season was pretty good and props up the rest. If one season is the outlier, and great affects the average, it's less meaningful. DLee is probably a better example, at 114, 177, 111 and 126. His tenure as a Cub may be more like a 140 OPS+, but he's been nowhere near that most of the time.

[The Voice of Reason]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

His cumulative ERA over the last four years is over 4 which is not good.

 

No, it's not good, but it's also not nearly as meaningful as the individual seasons, in which 3 of 4 were good. Just like Jacque Jones and his last 4 seasons of 90, 99, 107 and 78 OPS+ aren't any good, even if the 2006 season was pretty good and props up the rest. If one season is the outlier, and great affects the average, it's less meaningful. DLee is probably a better example, at 114, 177, 111 and 126. His tenure as a Cub may be more like a 140 OPS+, but he's been nowhere near that most of the time.

 

I disagree that the seasons with the 3.92 and 3.88 are "good seasons" for a NL pitcher rather that the 3.13 ERA in the 2005 season was the outlier. IMO Dempster has had one good/career season in the last four years for which (in typical Hendry fashion) he was overpaid for.

[Soul]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

It's just frustration goony. At least that's how I read it.

 

2 1/2 game lead, poof. That tends to raise the blood pressure a bit.

[jersey cubs fan]

IMO Dempster has had one good/career season in the last four years for which (in typical Hendry fashion) he was overpaid for.

 

I'm not arguing he's not overpaid. I'm not a fan of multi year contracts for relievers.

 

My point is he's been fine as the closer and all the angst regarding him being the closer right now is misguided.

[Soul]

How many times this year have we actually had a comfortable lead going into the 9th anyway (say......5 run lead)? I watch other teams polishing off blowout wins all the time.

 

Seems like we always need to bite our fingernails off because we can't pull away from anyone.

 

There's more to this than just Dempster blowing a save. This team is just not playing good baseball in several areas.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How many times this year have we actually had a comfortable lead going into the 9th anyway (say......5 run lead)? I watch other teams polishing off blowout wins all the time.

 

Seems like we always need to bite our fingernails off because we can't pull away from anyone.

 

There's more to this than just Dempster blowing a save. This team is just not playing good baseball in several areas.

 

It seems that way because you don't remember those comfortable leads as vividly. We've had plenty of multi-run wins get finished off without a hitch.

[BigbadB]

It seems that way because you don't remember those comfortable leads as vividly. We've had plenty of multi-run wins get finished off without a hitch.

 

I also recall about 3 come from behind victories in the last few weeks.

[hardcorecubfan]

I still question Lou for pitching him the night before with a 6 run lead, wasn't that a great time to let Kerry do his thing? What ever that may be

[BigbadB]

I still question Lou for pitching him the night before with a 6 run lead, wasn't that a great time to let Kerry do his thing? What ever that may be

 

While I agree with this premise, could it be that Lou didn't feel like he could get someone else ready quickly enough to pitch in Dempster's place?

[CubColtPacer]

I still question Lou for pitching him the night before with a 6 run lead, wasn't that a great time to let Kerry do his thing? What ever that may be

 

While I agree with this premise, could it be that Lou didn't feel like he could get someone else ready quickly enough to pitch in Dempster's place?

 

That might be. Also, as I said earlier in the thread, if Dempster hadn't pitched on Wednesday he would have had 3 straight days off. We saw last year how bad he was in those types of situations. He needs regular work, and pitching him was a necessity even with the big lead.

[fromthestretch]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

His cumulative ERA over the last four years is over 4 which is not good.

 

Actually, it's 3.88.

 

And since we're talking about his ability as a closer, perhaps you shouldn't include his horrible numbers in six starts at the beginning of 2005. Let's face it, everyone knows he's not good in a starting role. His ERA as a reliever over the last four years is 3.65. While not stellar, it's much better than "over 4."

[The Voice of Reason]

Dempster ERAs

 

2004 - 3.92, 2005 - 3.13, 2006 - 4.80, 2007 - 3.88

 

Over the last four years, Demspter's ERA is over 4.

 

Yeah, he's worth $5.3 million a year. :roll:

 

His ERA is over 4 in one of those seasons. I don't think he's worth 5.3. But he's here already and is the best candidate to close.

 

Just watched the highlights of the 9th this morning. It's hard to get pissed at Dempster. The first guy hit an outside pitch the other way. The 2nd at bat should have been a double play, and at the very least, a fielders choice. The homerun was a pop-up that floated into the basket. There's really no reason for people to get all pissy about Dempster. He's far from great, but he's been fine this year, and he's been fine throughout the majority of his time on the Cubs.

 

His cumulative ERA over the last four years is over 4 which is not good.

 

Actually, it's 3.88.

 

And since we're talking about his ability as a closer, perhaps you shouldn't include his horrible numbers in six starts at the beginning of 2005. Let's face it, everyone knows he's not good in a starting role. His ERA as a reliever over the last four years is 3.65. While not stellar, it's much better than "over 4."

 

Thanks for doing the actual math. Obviously I was just estimating.

 

While your at it, could you compare a 3.65 ERA to the top 10 closers in the NL over the last four years? Maybe then you guys can change my opinion about Dempster.

[UK1679666180]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not a fan of multi year contracts for relievers.

 

this is the equivalent of saying "i'm not a fan of signing free agent relievers" because if a good relief pitcher is getting offered 1 year by the cubs and 3 years by another team, he's going to take the deal that offers him more security. If you're going with that plan, you'd better have a hell of a minor league system that churns out one or two carlos marmols every year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not a fan of multi year contracts for relievers.

 

this is the equivalent of saying "i'm not a fan of signing free agent relievers" because if a good relief pitcher is getting offered 1 year by the cubs and 3 years by another team, he's going to take the deal that offers him more security. If you're going with that plan, you'd better have a hell of a minor league system that churns out one or two carlos marmols every year.

 

Well yeah, you should be doing that anyway. Every team should be able to churn out a good reliever from their system on a regular basis. It's one thing to sign one guy, but when your bullpen is constantly stocked with guys on 3 year deals, you are taking a huge gamble. Unless you find yourself a truly reliable great reliever, there's no reason to do it.

[The Voice of Reason]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

But who's going to take Dempster and the $5.3 million contract Hendry signed him to? Jake - Can we go to the Pirates well one more time please? Demster would be a good compliment to the highly paid Matt Morris.

[jersey cubs fan]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

I don't see a lot of logic in taking Marmol out of the more important 7th/8th inning role.

[C.C.]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

I don't see a lot of logic in taking Marmol out of the more important 7th/8th inning role.

 

Agreed. You'd be hard press to find anyone that is as effective to replace him.

[Post Count Padder]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

I don't see a lot of logic in taking Marmol out of the more important 7th/8th inning role.

 

Agreed. You'd be hard press to find anyone that is as effective to replace him.

Yep. It would be better to acquire a pitcher with experience as a good closer, such as Fuentes or Cordero and keep Marmol in the 7th/8th inning.

[UK1679666180]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

But who's going to take Dempster and the $5.3 million contract Hendry signed him to? Jake - Can we go to the Pirates well one more time please? Demster would be a good compliment to the highly paid Matt Morris.

 

And replace him with who? Overspend again on more middle relief? I trust Dempster more at this stage than Wood and Wuertz.

 

Dempster is not a problem on this team compared to needing fresh bodies in RF, CF, SS (unless they upgrade around Theriot) and C long-term.

[C.C.]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

I don't see a lot of logic in taking Marmol out of the more important 7th/8th inning role.

 

Agreed. You'd be hard press to find anyone that is as effective to replace him.

Yep. It would be better to acquire a pitcher with experience as a good closer, such as Fuentes or Cordero and keep Marmol in the 7th/8th inning.

 

I'm fine with Dempster until he proves other wise.

[Post Count Padder]

Dempster has prob. been an avg. closer during his tenure as closer.

 

Of course, if Marmol was closer and Dempster was a set-up guy this year, similar W-L totals would be there over the course of the season, just more games lost in the 7th than the 9th.

 

Unless you reduce his role to that of someone like Wuertz, swapping someone like him and Marmol isn't going to amount to much improvement.

 

Agree. The logical thing would be to get rid of Dempster next year, bring in a reliable set up guy and make Marmol and his 1.45 ERA and high strike out ratio the closer.

 

I don't see a lot of logic in taking Marmol out of the more important 7th/8th inning role.

 

Agreed. You'd be hard press to find anyone that is as effective to replace him.

Yep. It would be better to acquire a pitcher with experience as a good closer, such as Fuentes or Cordero and keep Marmol in the 7th/8th inning.

 

I'm fine with Dempster until he proves other wise.

That too. My suggestion was only if Dempster was moved. I still think he close out games effectively.