Ichiro set to re-sign

[Mephistopheles]

Therefore the notion that, because Ichiro is speedy, his production is therefore going to tail off more rapidly than joe average ballplayer is completely nonsensical and false.

 

Yeah, you're probably right.

 

But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference.

 

While Ichiro is the posterboy for all BA yet no good OBP, he's still a superstar player. Not because of his bat as much as his defense. He's a tremendous defensive player at CF and RF.

[Rob]

Therefore the notion that, because Ichiro is speedy, his production is therefore going to tail off more rapidly than joe average ballplayer is completely nonsensical and false.

 

Yeah, you're probably right.

 

But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference.

 

While Ichiro is the posterboy for all BA yet no good OBP, he's still a superstar player. Not because of his bat as much as his defense. He's a tremendous defensive player at CF and RF.

 

BP's "Stars & Scrubs" chart for Ichiro... posting his calculated chance to perform at certain level for the next few years.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/suzukic01_004.gif

 

Edit:

 

Granted, that is just for his bat... but his defense, while great, isn't enough to drag that whole graph up to the point where he's a no-doubt superstar.

 

Edit2:

 

Just for comparison's sake.

 

Pujols

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/pujolal01_004.gif

 

 

ARod

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/rodrial01_004.gif

 

 

Vlad

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/guerrvl01_004.gif

 

 

Aramis

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/ramirar01_004.gif

 

 

Pie

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/PIE19850208A_004.gif

[Mephistopheles]

dont post that crap. his glove certainly does make up for it. If you want to argue semantics be my guest and waste my and your time.

 

A. He's consistently a 9+ WARP player you BP whore. That makes him significantly more productive than other "superstars."

B. The exact definition of a superstar is larger than his worth on the field. There are maybe 6 or 7 players in the world that get as much coverage as he does.

[NCCubFan]

dont post that crap.

Don't tell someone what and what not to post.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I really don't understand what it takes to get banned around here

[Sarcastic]

I really don't understand what it takes to get banned around here

 

Technically, telling someone what they can't post doesn't count as a personal attack.

 

Although calling him a BP whore probably does.

[Flames24Rulz]

I really don't understand what it takes to get banned around here

 

Technically, telling someone what they can't post doesn't count as a personal attack.

 

Although calling him a BP whore probably does.

 

No, but he's not a mod. He can't tell others what to post and what not to post. And it's not like this is the first or fifth time he made a remark like that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Crimeny, do you really think he was actually demanding that never be posted again? Has no one heard of the phrase "Get out of here"?

[Mephistopheles]

that stuff is crap. its an arbitrary definition that BP came up with one night to make themselves feel important. calling him a BP whore really isnt a personal attack as much as me blowing smoke when people post BP stats and think its final as if they know what theyre talking about. Im not saying Rob does or does not know what hes talking about but there are a lot of people who post VORP who dont have the slightest clue on how to calculate it or anything. i enjoy finding flaws in those arguments. This is one of those cases. It's a random cutoff. Using it as a measuring stick is stupid. So now Im personally attacking BP and calling their idea stupid. Im fine with that.

[SouthSideRyan]

I swear to God he's MGL.

[soccer10k]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

[Rob]

dont post that crap. his glove certainly does make up for it. If you want to argue semantics be my guest and waste my and your time.

 

A. He's consistently a 9+ WARP player you BP whore. That makes him significantly more productive than other "superstars."

B. The exact definition of a superstar is larger than his worth on the field. There are maybe 6 or 7 players in the world that get as much coverage as he does.

 

 

that stuff is crap. its an arbitrary definition that BP came up with one night to make themselves feel important. calling him a BP whore really isnt a personal attack as much as me blowing smoke when people post BP stats and think its final as if they know what theyre talking about. Im not saying Rob does or does not know what hes talking about but there are a lot of people who post VORP who dont have the slightest clue on how to calculate it or anything. i enjoy finding flaws in those arguments. This is one of those cases. It's a random cutoff. Using it as a measuring stick is stupid. So now Im personally attacking BP and calling their idea stupid. Im fine with that.

 

 

First off, I'll post what I damn well want to. If you've got a problem with being shown up, get smarter.

 

Secondly, for somebody talking about not knowing how to use stats, you sure as hell don't know when to use WARP1 vs. WARP3. If we were comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter... sure. Comparing him to contemporaries, he's posted WARP1s of 9.0, 7.2, 6.8, 8.6, 6.9, and 7.0. He's at 5.8 so far this year, but based on his average of about 7.5 WARP, I doubt he keeps up the pace.

 

Finally, aren't you the one who started bitching about my grasp of the word "superstar"? You started the damn semantic argument. Don't like em? Stop starting them.

[XZero771679666304]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

Strictly as a player, you're right.

 

But for being a player + putting butts in Safeco's seats, he might be worth it.

[Jazz]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

Strictly as a player, you're right.

 

But for being a player + putting butts in Safeco's seats, he might be worth it.

 

im not convinced the + putting butts in the seats makes up the differance between how much he is really worth and 20 million, especially when u figur that when (not if) he declines near the end of the deal, he wont be putting butts in seats anymore, and will just be another albatross.

[Mephistopheles]

irst off, I'll post what I damn well want to. If you've got a problem with being shown up, get smarter.

 

Secondly, for somebody talking about not knowing how to use stats, you sure as hell don't know when to use WARP1 vs. WARP3. If we were comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter... sure. Comparing him to contemporaries, he's posted WARP1s of 9.0, 7.2, 6.8, 8.6, 6.9, and 7.0. He's at 5.8 so far this year, but based on his average of about 7.5 WARP, I doubt he keeps up the pace.

 

Finally, aren't you the one who started bitching about my grasp of the word "superstar"? You started the damn semantic argument. Don't like em? Stop starting them.

 

You really don't know what you're getting into.

 

1. I wasn't shown up. You just decided to post stupid crap that's worthless. I mean you didn't bring up defense, how he's the face of baseball to some million upon millions of Japanese baseball fans (with Hideki) and is one of the top five most scrutinized players in the world. I mean sure you thought it was just on the field OOPS..just with the bat. Nevertheless Ichiro's the best CF in the game according to VORP, WARP1, and WARP3. Since you love your WARP1 averages. Coming into the season. Ichiro: 7.6. Jeter: 6.5. Jeter's obviously a superstar and don't bring in the stupid crap about the media and the Yankees making Jeter a superstar. The Japanese media does the same thing to Ichiro. Theyre pretty comparable there.

 

2. Really I don't know the difference between WARP1, 2 and 3? You sure as hell don't. When comparing Ichiro to contemporaries outside of the AL YOU HAVE TO USE WARP2/3 (they're the same for all intents and purposes). See, when you calculate WARP you first have to calculate RARP and then scale it to wins starting with a worthless team of RPs. To calculate RARP you simply add PRAR, BRAR and FRAR. There inlies the problem with WARP1 when comparing Pujols to Ichiro, or Beltran to Ichiro.

 

To find BRAR it's 5*(EqA^2.5-.23^2.5)*Outs. You have to use EqA. Fine and dandy. There are two different EqAs that BP uses on player cards. That's the real culprit here. EqA isn't a difficult stat to formulate, I've done it to Japanese players. To find EqA you take the raw EqA formula and then you compare it to league average for all hitters in the league. Next you do some other things, but they're irrelevant in this discussion. WARP1 uses just players from the AL for Ichiro and just players from the NL for Pujols. That's not even the real problem. For all teams in the NL the nine hole in the lineup is an automatic out, yet this is used to scale EqA >> BRAR >> WARP1. WARP2/3's EqA's baseline Raw EqA is the all time EqA for all players and is perfectly fine for comparing players at the same time. This is why when you look at, say Ichiro's player card his EqA jumps ten points but when you look at Pujols' his EqA is pretty much the same.

 

I mean you can be ignorant and naive and say I don't know when to use various things, but I'm pretty sure I just slaughtered that opinion.

Edited July 12, 2007 by Mephistopheles

[XZero771679666304]

Ah, a wonderful pissing match, full of sound and fury....

[Backtobanks]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

It's no more insane than $10+ million for .500 pitchers and $8-!2 million for mediocre hitters.

[XZero771679666304]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

It's no more insane than $10+ million for .500 pitchers and $8-!2 million for mediocre hitters.

 

It's all pretty insane right now. I bet ARod is licking his chops.

[CubinNY]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

It's no more insane than $10+ million for .500 pitchers and $8-!2 million for mediocre hitters.

 

It's all pretty insane right now. I bet ARod is licking his chops.

 

Somebody is going to give him $30 million/year for 5 years.

 

And then that team will raise ticket prices to "stay competitiive".

 

It's a micorcosm of the economy, the rich get richer (owners and players) and the middle class pays the bills (fans).

[Banedon]

Let's tone down this thread a little everyone...

[SouthSideRyan]

If Ichiro is putting butts in Safeco, how anemic would their attendance be without him??

[davearm]

Secondly, for somebody talking about not knowing how to use stats, you sure as hell don't know when to use WARP1 vs. WARP3. If we were comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter... sure. Comparing him to contemporaries, he's posted WARP1s of 9.0, 7.2, 6.8, 8.6, 6.9, and 7.0. He's at 5.8 so far this year, but based on his average of about 7.5 WARP, I doubt he keeps up the pace.

You look like you need a refresher here.

 

If you're comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter, WARP3 is your only option.

 

If you're comparing Ichiro to a current NL player, use either WARP2 or WARP3, but not WARP1... 2 and 3 will be the same since no adjustment for season length is necessary for current players.

 

If you're comparing Ichiro to a current AL player, use any of the three. As noted above, WARP2 and WARP3 will be the same. WARP1 will be lower for both guys, without the difficulty adjustment.

 

But the bottom line is that there's never an analysis for which WARP3 is *not* appropriate. That's why it's the one most folks migrate to.

 

If you're adamant about using WARP1 here, that's fine by me. Ichiro's worst season is now worth 6.8 wins (not 8.2), and ARod's worst season is now worth 5.4 wins (not 7.3). The margin is still there, and actually using WARP1 hurts ARod more than Ichiro (26% decline from 3 to 1 for ARod; 17% decline for Ichiro).

[Soul]

BP's "Stars & Scrubs" chart for Ichiro... posting his calculated chance to perform at certain level for the next few years.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/suzukic01_004.gif

 

Ichiro's is a superstar right now, so how does BP defend their graph since it appears to be incorrect as of this moment?

[UBlink]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

It's no more insane than $10+ million for .500 pitchers and $8-!2 million for mediocre hitters.

 

It's all pretty insane right now. I bet ARod is licking his chops.

 

Somebody is going to give him $30 million/year for 5 years.

 

And then that team will raise ticket prices to "stay competitiive".

 

It's a micorcosm of the economy, the rich get richer (owners and players) and the middle class pays the bills (fans).

 

If any team could increase their bottom line by raising ticket prices and they aren't doing it they are idiots. Ticket prices are determined primarily by demand and competition from entertainment alternatives. Most sports tickets are already priced at the revenue maximizing level so raising ticket prices would actually reduce the team's revenue.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

$20M per year for Ichiro is insane. There's no way he's worth that amount of money.

 

Did anyone hear the radio interview with Marlins president David Sampson when he was asked about the deal?

 

He at first said he couldn't believe it. And then said if it were true that baseball was about to return to the ridiculous contracts that got clubs in trouble. He had a hard time believing that the 20 million figure was accurate.