Ichiro set to re-sign

[Derwood]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

[Soul]

Isn't the Mariners' ownership from Japan, too?

 

That must have played into this, or at least I would think it did.

[RynoRules]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

 

That's a rather ignorant statement.

 

He is immensly popular in both Seattle and overseas. He's the main reason (in terms of revenue creation) they could afford to ink Sexson and Beltre, and took a run at Schmidt last Winter. His value to that franchise is not based in baseball stats alone.

 

Comparing him to A-Rod - whose "q" rating is well below Ichiro's at this point - is an apples to oranges comparison. Ichiro is a very rare commodity and thus his value cannot be analyzed in typical terms.

[davearm]

especially when his speed declines and he can't beat out those infield hit anymore.

 

I would take Sorianos contract everyday of the week and twice on Sundays, over this deal for Ichiro. At least when Sorianos speed starts going away, he can still hit for power, where as when Ichiros speed goes, Ichiro becomes an averager ballplayer. His entire game is based on speed, which is usually one of the first things to go as you age.

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

[davearm]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

 

That's a rather ignorant statement.

 

He is immensly popular in both Seattle and overseas. He's the main reason (in terms of revenue creation) they could afford to ink Sexson and Beltre, and took a run at Schmidt last Winter. His value to that franchise is not based in baseball stats alone.

 

Comparing him to A-Rod - whose "q" rating is well below Ichiro's at this point - is an apples to oranges comparison. Ichiro is a very rare commodity and thus his value cannot be analyzed in typical terms.

And even given all of the off-the-field considerations, people are still overlooking the fact that Ichiro has been a consistent 9-10 win player.

 

Guys like that don't exactly grow on trees, folks.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

especially when his speed declines and he can't beat out those infield hit anymore.

 

I would take Sorianos contract everyday of the week and twice on Sundays, over this deal for Ichiro. At least when Sorianos speed starts going away, he can still hit for power, where as when Ichiros speed goes, Ichiro becomes an averager ballplayer. His entire game is based on speed, which is usually one of the first things to go as you age.

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

I don't think they're saying that Ichiro is going to become a plodder, but it's quite reasonable to assume he's going to lose a step as he enters his mid to late thirties. For a guy who relies so much on speed to be valuable(infield hits, stolen bases to offset his lack of power), it's a very large concern when you're paying the guy twenty million dollars.

[moorecg]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

 

That's a rather ignorant statement.

 

He is immensly popular in both Seattle and overseas. He's the main reason (in terms of revenue creation) they could afford to ink Sexson and Beltre, and took a run at Schmidt last Winter. His value to that franchise is not based in baseball stats alone.

 

Comparing him to A-Rod - whose "q" rating is well below Ichiro's at this point - is an apples to oranges comparison. Ichiro is a very rare commodity and thus his value cannot be analyzed in typical terms.

 

Now if we want to talk about really bad contracts...the conversation should start with these guys....(although Beltre has been a little better this year)

[UBlink]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

 

The true cost of a player is his salary less any incremental revenue directly attributable to that player. If you pay Ichiro $20MM and you forecast additional incremental revenue of $10MM he costs you the same as a $12MM dollar player without the marketing power that only generates $2MM incremental revenue. Marketing makes a huge difference.

[jersey cubs fan]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

[jersey cubs fan]

bad, bad deal. Who cares how much marketing he does? This hamstrings a team without a super high payroll. $20mil/year for a singles hitter? It's laughable

 

if Ichiro is worth $20mil/year, A-Rod is worth $50mil/year

 

The true cost of a player is his salary less any incremental revenue directly attributable to that player. If you pay Ichiro $20MM and you forecast additional incremental revenue of $10MM he costs you the same as a $12MM dollar player without the marketing power that only generates $2MM incremental revenue. Marketing makes a huge difference.

 

His greatest value to the team was in his first few years. He's going to get worse and worse in the field, and he is going to sell less and less. Teams hold onto guys later in their life for PR reasons more than marketing revenue reasons. Somebody on the verge of huge records might continue to bring in the money, but with attendance plummeting since Iricho-mania has cooled considerably and the team has struggled, his value has dropped considerably.

 

Teams worry much more about the PR backlash of letting a guy go than the revenue opportunity of keeping him around. They make most of their money off the player in his early years. The Yankees will be paying Jeter way more than he's worth long after his value was great for the team.

[Backtobanks]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

 

I hope you're joking by comparing Lofton to Ichiro. He might lose a step in the next few years, but I think Ichiro will be an "above-average" player into his 40s if he chooses to continue playing. As others have stated, his marketing value is and will continue to be extremely high. Also, I remember hearing that he can really put on a power hitting show in batting practice when he wants to. Ther's no reason to think that his great hand-eye coordination and bat control will diminish significantly.

[davearm]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

Lofton

Otis Nixon

Ricky Henderson

Ozzie Smith

Lou Brock

Willie Wilson

Brett Butler

Davey Lopes

Omar Vizquel

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Willie McGee, though he was never the model for consistency

[Cubzfan64]

I guess I'm in the minority here too, and while I can understand the other side of the argument, I simply don't happen to agree that it's such a terrible contract as some of you believe.

 

I'm not a huge Ichiro fan, but face the facts - the guy is a perenial 200+ hits, 100+ R guy each and every year - and that's for a team that isn't a terribly good offensive team!

 

He may hit alot of singles, but when you include his SB totals and count those as doubles, he's a 40+ doubles hitter every year as well - plus he happens to be an excellent outfielder.

 

Name some other guys who didn't hit a ton of HR's but had speed? Lofton, Henderson, O Smith... Each of those guys still had very productive years into their late 30's, and I see no signs that Ichiro is regressing.

 

Where's the proof that "Ichiro-mania" has dwindled in Seattle and/or Japan? Do you know this for a fact or are you just assuming it? As someone else mentioned, Ichiro provides $ to Seattle in revenue and people smarter than I am have obviously decided that $20 mil per year is still a good deal, or they wouldn't be signing him.

 

Would I want $20mil spent on him if he were to sign with the Cubs - honestly I couldn't care less how much these guys are paid as long as it doesn't keep "my team" from signing other guys who can help me win. I don't know Seattle's payroll issues or whether their management is primarily focused on making money, or whether they are committed to winning at all costs.

 

For some teams, a $20mil contract for Ichiro might be a bad contract, for others, it might not only be an ok contract, but it might also provide them with the type of player they need to win.

[Jon]

I'd love to have someone with a .410 OBP, but the guy has never had a decent IsoD or IsoP. Heck, he's only had 3 or 4 good seasons. Ichiro would have to be bringing in $10 million or more a year now after what gets divided up to the rest of the league for this to seem worth while. And that's not factoring the decline in interest he is going to bring as time goes on. I can't imagine he's bringing in as much money now as he was during his first two seasons.

[davearm]

Willie McGee, though he was never the model for consistency

Willie McGee (and many others) belong in different category: thin fast guys whose all-around game did indeed deteriorate in their thirties, although the cause of the decline was not really diminished footspeed.

[jersey cubs fan]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

Lofton

Otis Nixon

Ricky Henderson

Ozzie Smith

Lou Brock

Willie Wilson

Brett Butler

Davey Lopes

Omar Vizquel

 

What a terrible attempt to defend your stance.

[davearm]

I'd love to have someone with a .410 OBP, but the guy has never had a decent IsoD or IsoP. Heck, he's only had 3 or 4 good seasons. Ichiro would have to be bringing in $10 million or more a year now after what gets divided up to the rest of the league for this to seem worth while. And that's not factoring the decline in interest he is going to bring as time goes on. I can't imagine he's bringing in as much money now as he was during his first two seasons.

I'd sure be curious to hear which 2 or 3 seasons you're tossing out as less than good.

 

His worst season was still worth over 8 wins. That's very good.

[davearm]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

Lofton

Otis Nixon

Ricky Henderson

Ozzie Smith

Lou Brock

Willie Wilson

Brett Butler

Davey Lopes

Omar Vizquel

 

What a terrible attempt to defend your stance.

LOL!

 

You said, "I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's." Well now you know of several.

 

Happy to be of service.

[CubinNY]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

Lofton

Otis Nixon

Ricky Henderson

Ozzie Smith

Lou Brock

Willie Wilson

Brett Butler

Davey Lopes

Omar Vizquel

 

What a terrible attempt to defend your stance.

LOL!

 

You said, "I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's." Well now you know of several.

 

Happy to be of service.

Except for the fact that Ricky was never thinly built, and Brett Butler, Davey Lopes, Otis Nixon, Lou Brock, Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, and Kenny Lofton were pretty much medicore to crappy players by their mid 30s.

 

Is it really that hard to look up statistics?

 

Baseball reference is your friend.

[davearm]

The bottom line is this:

 

Baseball players decline as they age for a whole slew of reasons:

* diminished batspeed

* slipping hand/eye coordination

* eroding defensive skills

* fading power

* declining endurance and ability to hold up to the daily grind

* sapped arm strength

* declining footspeed

 

We could probably come up with a dozen more reasons too.

 

But of them all, declining footspeed would be well down the list. It might even be at the bottom of the list. It's just not a skill that's susceptable to rapid decline.

 

Therefore guys whose game is built on speed don't have as much to worry about compared to guys whose game is based on power, or defense, or whatever else.

[CubinNY]

The bottom line is this:

 

Baseball players decline as they age for a whole slew of reasons:

* diminished batspeed

* slipping hand/eye coordination

* eroding defensive skills

* fading power

* declining endurance and ability to hold up to the daily grind

* sapped arm strength

* declining footspeed

 

We could probably come up with a dozen more reasons too.

 

But of them all, declining footspeed would be well down the list. It might even be at the bottom of the list. It's just not a skill that's susceptable to rapid decline.

 

Therefore guys whose game is built on speed don't have as much to worry about compared to guys whose game is based on power, or defense, or whatever else.

Ichiro's game is not built on speed. It's built on an incredible ability to hit a baseball in almost any direct.

[davearm]

OK, it's time for this misconception to die, right along with "clutch hitter" and "lineup protection".

 

Thinly built, speedy guys like Ichiro tend to age very well. Barring injury, they don't all of a sudden just get slow.

 

Somewhere along the line somebody blurted out this theory, because at a quick glance it might seem commonsensical, and now people just reflexively repeat it and accept it as fact even though it doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

 

Provide some scrutiny that disproves it. I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's. We're talking about a guy with little patience and very little power whose entire game is based on his ability to make contact and run to first. The closest comparable I can think of is Kenny Lofton, but he had more patience and more power. He has stuck around a while, but has been quite inconsistent.

Lofton

Otis Nixon

Ricky Henderson

Ozzie Smith

Lou Brock

Willie Wilson

Brett Butler

Davey Lopes

Omar Vizquel

 

What a terrible attempt to defend your stance.

LOL!

 

You said, "I don't know of any thinly built speedy guys like Ichiro whose game held up throughout their mid 30's." Well now you know of several.

 

Happy to be of service.

Except for the fact that Ricky was never thinly built, and Brett Butler, Davey Lopes, Otis Nixon, Lou Brock, Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, and Kenny Lofton were pretty much medicore to crappy players by their mid 30s.

 

Is it really that hard to look up statistics?

 

Baseball reference is your friend.

So you're saying these guys weren't as good at 38 as they were at 25?

 

Gosh, I hadn't noticed that. :roll:

 

The point is, the decline seen in these guys' career paths is not at all atypical for any player, or indicative of some enhanced risk associated with being thin and fast.

 

In fact these guys aged much better than the general baseball population does.

[davearm]

The bottom line is this:

 

Baseball players decline as they age for a whole slew of reasons:

* diminished batspeed

* slipping hand/eye coordination

* eroding defensive skills

* fading power

* declining endurance and ability to hold up to the daily grind

* sapped arm strength

* declining footspeed

 

We could probably come up with a dozen more reasons too.

 

But of them all, declining footspeed would be well down the list. It might even be at the bottom of the list. It's just not a skill that's susceptable to rapid decline.

 

Therefore guys whose game is built on speed don't have as much to worry about compared to guys whose game is based on power, or defense, or whatever else.

Ichiro's game is not built on speed. It's built on an incredible ability to hit a baseball in almost any direct.

Why are you telling me that?

 

Tell it to the folks that seem to think Ichiro is going to suck in 3 years simply because his game's built on speed.

[SouthSideRyan]

Where's the proof that "Ichiro-mania" has dwindled in Seattle and/or Japan? Do you know this for a fact or are you just assuming it?

 

Where's your proof that Ichiro is providing this huge boon to Seattle in revenue or are you just assuming it?

 

The year Ichiro debuted with Seattle they won 116 games and drew a shade over 3.5M in attendance. The following year it was ~3.54M Since then the attendance has steadily declined all the way down to ~2.48M last year.