Better chance?

[JenksFan5]

Between Carlos Villanueva, Yovani Gallardo, Zach Jackson and possibly Manny Parra, they have plenty of guys who could fill in at least decently if a starter goes down. There is absolutely no reason why Ryan Braun of the 1.142 ops should not be starting at third every day for this team.

 

I agree to a certain extent, but the Brewers are still a small market team that need to be financially savvy. The reason that Braun is not in the big leagues yet is because of a future arbitration/contract issues in my opinion. I believe his arby clock turns over sometime in June and the Brewers could push arbitration another year. Don't ask me the complete logistics of the situation, but it is definitely playing a roll in holding him back. As long as the Brewers are winning there is no rush to fill the hole at third base and it gives Braun ample time to work on the throw from third to first, which is usually where he makes his errors. Although every time he makes an error this year (in the minors and Spring Training), he has gone yard in his next AB except for once.

[Magnetic Curses]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

 

When pitching is good, pitching is good. It usually doesn't go up and down. Their hitting may cool a little, but they'll keep pitching well throughout the year.

 

well, our pitching has been just as good and i think our offense will prove to be better.

[JenksFan5]

I think you are drastically under-rating Bush when you say he is on the same level as Vargas and Villanueva. Even though his ERA is pretty ugly so far this year, I really think he is a better pitcher than Suppan or Capuano. He walks so few batters, he strikes out quite a bit, and he doesn't allow that many long balls. I would be willing to bet that he has a fairly high BABIP against, and he should be fine as that regresses to the mean.

 

I agree that Bush is underrated. I think he would be a #3 on many pitching staffs if not a #2 on some weak staffs. His WHIP has been excellent and I love his potential. So far this year, he hasn't been able to avoid the big inning in his losses, but has been pretty solid, if not dominant apart from a few frames.

 

I am not underrating Bush as much as I am showing confidence in Villanueva and his ability. Don't get me wrong, I am a big fan of Bush (definitely above Vargas), but Villanueva has shown capability to be a reliable guy as well (career 1.10 WHIP in over 70IP).

[Magnetic Curses]

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

 

 

 

Great discussion. Where would you guys say that the Cubs biggest depth problem is?

 

Catcher is number one-putting Blanco in as the everyday catcher instead of Barrett would be a big loss to the offense (although not so far this season).

 

1B is another one-although the Cubs have two decent candidates to fill it this year unlike last year, that still is such a huge dropoff.

 

3B is probably the 3rd position player-the Cubs have Scott Moore in the minors who could come up and do an ok job filling in, but it would be trouble if he had to be in the lineup for a long time.

 

Another SP is also a minor depth concern, although if Sean Marshall continues to pitch the way he has coming back from his injury that concern isn't very strong.

 

offensively, yes, but blanco handles pitching staffs remarkably well and is a top notch defensive player.

 

at 1b, of course there's going to be a dropoff, derrek lee is one of the best hitters in the game.

 

at 3b, derosa would slide over before moore would be utilized, although he may be called up if ramirez goes down.

[CubColtPacer]

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

 

 

 

Great discussion. Where would you guys say that the Cubs biggest depth problem is?

 

Catcher is number one-putting Blanco in as the everyday catcher instead of Barrett would be a big loss to the offense (although not so far this season).

 

1B is another one-although the Cubs have two decent candidates to fill it this year unlike last year, that still is such a huge dropoff.

 

3B is probably the 3rd position player-the Cubs have Scott Moore in the minors who could come up and do an ok job filling in, but it would be trouble if he had to be in the lineup for a long time.

 

Another SP is also a minor depth concern, although if Sean Marshall continues to pitch the way he has coming back from his injury that concern isn't very strong.

 

offensively, yes, but blanco handles pitching staffs remarkably well and is a top notch defensive player.

 

at 1b, of course there's going to be a dropoff, derrek lee is one of the best hitters in the game.

 

at 3b, derosa would slide over before moore would be utilized, although he may be called up if ramirez goes down.

 

Yeah, I was looking more at serious injuries-I think the team has enough depth that if a guy goes down for 5-10 days it won't be much of a problem no matter who it is.

[cubsfan5150]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

 

When pitching is good, pitching is good. It usually doesn't go up and down. Their hitting may cool a little, but they'll keep pitching well throughout the year.

 

well, our pitching has been just as good and i think our offense will prove to be better.

 

I agree, but I'm saying that we'll have to keep up with them as opposed to them coming back to us.

[cubsfan5150]

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

 

 

 

Great discussion. Where would you guys say that the Cubs biggest depth problem is?

 

Catcher is number one-putting Blanco in as the everyday catcher instead of Barrett would be a big loss to the offense (although not so far this season).

 

1B is another one-although the Cubs have two decent candidates to fill it this year unlike last year, that still is such a huge dropoff.

 

3B is probably the 3rd position player-the Cubs have Scott Moore in the minors who could come up and do an ok job filling in, but it would be trouble if he had to be in the lineup for a long time.

 

Another SP is also a minor depth concern, although if Sean Marshall continues to pitch the way he has coming back from his injury that concern isn't very strong.

 

offensively, yes, but blanco handles pitching staffs remarkably well and is a top notch defensive player.

 

at 1b, of course there's going to be a dropoff, derrek lee is one of the best hitters in the game.

 

at 3b, derosa would slide over before moore would be utilized, although he may be called up if ramirez goes down.

 

Yeah, I was looking more at serious injuries-I think the team has enough depth that if a guy goes down for 5-10 days it won't be much of a problem no matter who it is.

 

When you talk about depth, it's tough to throw guys like Fielder, Ramirez, or Lee into the conversation. Any team, no matter how much depth is going to take a step back whenever they lose one of their top two or three players. Hell even the Yankees would degress if they lost Jeter or ARod.

[Magnetic Curses]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

 

When pitching is good, pitching is good. It usually doesn't go up and down. Their hitting may cool a little, but they'll keep pitching well throughout the year.

 

well, our pitching has been just as good and i think our offense will prove to be better.

 

I agree, but I'm saying that we'll have to keep up with them as opposed to them coming back to us.

 

assuming your theory that "pitching doesn't go up or down", we can't help but keep up with them.

 

i think our offense will be worth more than 5 games over the next 133.

[seanimal]

A five game lead is so minuscule we erase it simply by beating the Brewers 5 more times than they do us over the next 9 times that we play them. That would involve sweeping them once and taking 2/3 the other two series, though. I don't think sweeping them is likely, but things could change. Playing well against them will do wonders however.

[brewfandave]

When you talk about depth, it's tough to throw guys like Fielder, Ramirez, or Lee into the conversation. Any team, no matter how much depth is going to take a step back whenever they lose one of their top two or three players. Hell even the Yankees would degress if they lost Jeter or ARod.

 

That's the best point of this thread right there.

 

Obviously, if the Cubs see Lee, Ramirez or Soriano go down, they're kind of screwed because those guys are just offensive monsters (and Lee is a one-of-a-kind defender).

 

Same with the Brewers and Fielder. Here's where the Brewers have an advantage - he's their only really irreplaceable position player. Right now they have five average-to-solid players and one unproven kid (Gwynn) in the outfield. Should they lose any infielder besides Fielder, they can easily shift Hall or call up Braun. Losing multiple players in the infield is a killer, but hey, not many teams are going to survive losing two quality infielders. Note that I say "quality" there - if Graffanino or Counsell goes down, the Brewers will actually improve a great deal.

 

Obviously losing a SP will kill you, but the Brewers are about as capable as anybody at filling that need, what with Carlos Villanueva available and Yo Gallardo in AAA.

 

As far as Bush goes, yes, his early season woes seem to be an aberration, and the numbers are bearing that out. Last I heard (don't quote me on this), his BABIP was in the area of .350-.360, which I hear is high, and I've heard statheads say that he has an abnormally extreme strand rate that is really killing him, too. I don't really know what that means, though. When it comes down to it, Bush has shown over a couple of seasons that he has the stuff to be a 4-4.5 ERA guy, and I expect him to get closer to those numbers as the season goes along. Who knows? He may get better - he's still young.

[Derwood]

the brewers have someone tearing it up at AAA? So did the giants in Tim Lincecum. okay, that's a one game sample size, but AAA success doesn't automatically mean success at the bigs

[CoolHandLuke]

I think Dave Bush has the peripherals to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Dave Bush has the peripherals to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher.

 

Both my fantasy teams hope so.

 

On Villanueva, he's not having a very good start to the year. A near 1 K/BB, and his WHIP is 1.34 while having a lower than expected .194 BAA doesn't bode well for his future outings. Of course, with his past success his peripherals will likely improve, but I felt compelled to point it out anyway. Gallardo is good.

[badgercub]

When you talk about depth, it's tough to throw guys like Fielder, Ramirez, or Lee into the conversation. Any team, no matter how much depth is going to take a step back whenever they lose one of their top two or three players. Hell even the Yankees would degress if they lost Jeter or ARod.

 

That's the best point of this thread right there.

 

Obviously, if the Cubs see Lee, Ramirez or Soriano go down, they're kind of screwed because those guys are just offensive monsters (and Lee is a one-of-a-kind defender).

 

Same with the Brewers and Fielder. Here's where the Brewers have an advantage - he's their only really irreplaceable position player. Right now they have five average-to-solid players and one unproven kid (Gwynn) in the outfield. Should they lose any infielder besides Fielder, they can easily shift Hall or call up Braun. Losing multiple players in the infield is a killer, but hey, not many teams are going to survive losing two quality infielders. Note that I say "quality" there - if Graffanino or Counsell goes down, the Brewers will actually improve a great deal.

 

Obviously losing a SP will kill you, but the Brewers are about as capable as anybody at filling that need, what with Carlos Villanueva available and Yo Gallardo in AAA.

 

As far as Bush goes, yes, his early season woes seem to be an aberration, and the numbers are bearing that out. Last I heard (don't quote me on this), his BABIP was in the area of .350-.360, which I hear is high, and I've heard statheads say that he has an abnormally extreme strand rate that is really killing him, too. I don't really know what that means, though. When it comes down to it, Bush has shown over a couple of seasons that he has the stuff to be a 4-4.5 ERA guy, and I expect him to get closer to those numbers as the season goes along. Who knows? He may get better - he's still young.

 

When you look at replacing someone due to long term injury the Brewers are somewhat hamstrung in that they have to replace from within or give up quite a bit of talent (prospect wise) to replace via trade. Whereas the Cubs with their deep pockets can give up little in the way of talent and take on a salary dump from another team that is out of contention.

[abuck1220]

all the players that are doing well on the cubs will continue to do well, and all the players on the cubs that are struggling will improve.

 

all the players on other teams that are doing well will regress, and all the players on the other teams that are struggling will continue to do so.

[jersey cubs fan]

all the players that are doing well on the cubs will continue to do well, and all the players on the cubs that are struggling will improve.

 

all the players on other teams that are doing well will regress, and all the players on the other teams that are struggling will continue to do so.

 

I think the Cubs will win a lot of games then. This should be a fun summer.

[cheapseats]

The thing is, though, it hasn't been Sheets that has been the anchor of the staff so far. His numbers have been mostly pedestrian. Suppan and Capuano have been the "aces" of the staff, and the bullpen has been fantastic. Looking at Sheets' numbers, he may already be injured.

 

Sound familiar??? Zambrano maybe?

 

Zambrano has historically started slow. If his numbers don't start to pick up by the end of may, then we can get worried.

 

I think we can worry anyway.

 

The change in arm slot is a sign of trouble.

[Rob]

the brewers have someone tearing it up at AAA? So did the giants in Tim Lincecum. okay, that's a one game sample size, but AAA success doesn't automatically mean success at the bigs

 

You really can't draw any meaningful conclusions from one game.

 

Yovani Gallardo on the other hand has a ton of minor league games under his belt with a very good track record. Most people place him directly behind Hughes, Bailey, and Lincecum in the pitching prospect rankings. He has major league quality stuff, too. This isn't Yusmeiro Petit syndrome where nobody knows why he's able to succeed in the minors. Gallardo is expected to perform at the highest level and he does. Ben Sheets may stay the ace of that pitching staff, but Gallardo is ready right now to give Capuano a run for #2.

 

The Brewers are also holding Ryan Braun back from the majors at the moment for no apparent reason. With Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino (sp?) at the hot corner right now, it wont take much for Braun to prove to be a large upgrade. Considering he could probably knock 15 dingers and steal 15 bases from this point out in the season, he'd go a long way towards making the Brewers as good in offense as they've performed to this point.

[cubsfan5150]

Well, it looks like the Brew crew might put us out of the race by the all-star break.

[jyoung55]

I think Dave Bush has the peripherals to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher.

 

But what about what his mechanics say? He throws the ball like a converted catcher with his almost short arm delivery. It looks like an injury waiting to happen. And I'd imagine the hitters get a good view of the ball coming off of his delivery.

[Productive Outs]

this is offtopic, but i see a lot of people referring to Lee as a good defender. 1b is regarded as one of the easiest positions to play, or rather that it takes less defensive ability to play 1b than most of the other positions. that being said, is Lee a good defender, or a good defensive 1b? i think there is a difference. Lee is very athletic, and i'm not saying he couldn't play the other positions, but it's just something i've noticed.

[The Voice of Reason]

Their interleague schedule will bring the Braves back to the back.

 

 

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10180420

 

 

While the Braves oppose the Red Sox (6 games), Tigers (3), Twins (3) and Indians (3), and the Mets face the Yankees (6), Tigers (3), Twins (3) and Athletics (3), the other NL East teams look to have less-demanding schedules. The Phillies, for example, play three games each against the losing-record Blue Jays and Royals, plus three each against the White Sox, Indians and Tigers.

[Soul]

Yeah, and I just want to point out that we're coming up on the stretch where the Brewers and Cubs play actual major league teams (Twins & White Sox, respectively), while the Cards & Stros get to take their annual tour of the minors (Royals & Rangers).

 

Gotta love how that works out. So the Crew will have a tougher schedule than a few other Central teams. So will we. That could change things a bit.

[soccer10k]

the brewers have someone tearing it up at AAA? So did the giants in Tim Lincecum. okay, that's a one game sample size, but AAA success doesn't automatically mean success at the bigs

 

Lincecum had one bad start against Philly which was made worse because he got burned on a couple bad pitches he made (to Howard and Victorino). He then came back to go 7 innings, giving up 3 R, 2 ER in Colorado a few days later. He pitched much better in his second start. But either way, that's a bad example because it's only two starts (well, 1 at the time you posted this, but the point remains).

[soccer10k]

Yeah, and I just want to point out that we're coming up on the stretch where the Brewers and Cubs play actual major league teams (Twins & White Sox, respectively), while the Cards & Stros get to take their annual tour of the minors (Royals & Rangers).

 

Gotta love how that works out. So the Crew will have a tougher schedule than a few other Central teams. So will we. That could change things a bit.

 

Well, not exactly

 

Interleague schedules:

 

Cubs: 3 vs CHW, 3 at CHW, 3 vs SEA, 3 at TEX

Brewers: 3 vs MIN, 3 at MIN, 3 at TEX, 3 at DET, 3 vs KC

Cardinals: 3 at DET, 3 vs LAA, 3 at KC, 3 vs KC, 3 at OAK

Astros: 3 vs TEX, 3 at TEX, 3 at CHW, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs SEA, 3 at LAA

 

Cubs: 9 vs mediocre (CHW, SEA), 3 vs bad (TEX)

Brewers: 3 vs very good (DET), 6 vs mediocre (MIN), 6 vs bad (TEX, KC)

Cardinals: 3 vs very good (DET), 6 vs good (LAA, OAK), 6 vs bad (KC)

Astros: 6 vs good (LAA, OAK), 6 vs mediocre (CHW, SEA), 6 vs bad (TEX)

 

Based on this, the Cardinals actually have the toughest interleague schedule with 9 games against good teams. Their schedule just appears easier because they have 6 against the worst AL team. The Cubs probably have the easiest schedule out of all the teams with no true good teams on their schedule.

 

Note: Even though both are 2 games over .500, I classified the A's as good but the White Sox as mediocre because of each teams RS/RA differential.